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Globālās ekonomikas tendences

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Latvijas Bankas Starptautisko attiecību un komunikācijas pārvaldes vadītāja Jura Kravaļa lekcija "Globālās ekonomikas tendences" Biznesa augstskolā "Turība" 2019. gada 8. oktobrī.

Published in: Economy & Finance
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Globālās ekonomikas tendences

  1. 1. SELECTED GLOBAL (ECONOMIC) TRENDS AND DRIVERS BEHIND THEM Juris Kravalis Latvijas Banka Head of International Relations and Communication 08.10.2019.
  2. 2. Source: Our World In Data, World Bank, OECD, UNESCO LIFE TODAY IS BETTER THAN EVER BEFORE 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1820 1860 1900 1940 1980 Share of people not living in extreme poverty Share of people living in extreme poverty 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1800 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 Literate world population Illiterate world population 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1800 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 Share of people that survive the first 5 years of life Share of people that die before they are 5 years old Extreme poverty Illiteracy Child mortality 94 10 88 15 43 4 2015
  3. 3. THE RISE OF CHINA HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE
  4. 4. THE RISE OF CHINA HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE Source: IMF World Economic Outlook data base GDP data in USD bn 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 1995 2005 2015 USA China 中国 Zhōng Guó Middle Kingdom/ Central Land
  5. 5. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook data base * - IMF forecasts CHINA: SEVERAL DECADES OF GROWTH 8.4 8.3 9.1 10 10.1 11.3 12.7 14.2 9.6 9.2 10.6 9.5 7.9 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.2 '0 '2 '4 '6 '8 '10 '12 '14 '16 Real GDP growth, %
  6. 6. CHINA IS (JUST) RETURNING TO WHERE IT ONCE WAS 6Sources: Angus Maddison, University of Groningen (before 1980), IMF WEO database (from 1980) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 1820 1826 1832 1838 1844 1850 1856 1862 1868 1874 1880 1886 1892 1898 1904 1910 1916 1922 1928 1934 1940 1946 1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018 Global GDP distribution (% of total, PPP) Western Europe USA China India
  7. 7. "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” "In the “National Security Strategy” that President Trump released last December, he described a new era of “great power competition.” <...> President Trump made clear that the United States of America has adopted a new approach to China. We seek a relationship grounded in fairness, reciprocity, and respect for sovereignty, and we have taken strong and swift action to achieve that goal." Sources: Allison, Graham, "The Thucydides Trap", Foreign Policy, June 9, 2017 Vice President Mike Pence's Remarks on the Administration's Policy Towards China, Hudson Institute, October 4, 2018 ARE THE US AND CHINA FALLING INTO A SOFT VERSION OF THE THUCYDIDES TRAP? "The past 500 years have seen 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling one. Twelve of these ended in war." Thucydides Trap A New Cold War between the US and China?
  8. 8. Source: IMF, YouGov survey, October 2016. The size of a circle is proportional to GDP per capita (in USD) in 2016. Globalisation is defined as the increasing movement of products, ideas, money, jobs, culture and people around the world. UK France Finland Denmark Norway Sweden Germany Australia Hong Kong Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam USA IndiaUAE Saudi Arabia 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 Overallthinkthatglobalizationisaforce forgoodfortheworld(%ofresponses) Real GDP (USD, PPP) changes, 2010-2016, % THE FASTER THE ECONOMIC GROWTH THE MORE POSITIVELY PEOPLE VIEW GLOBALISATION
  9. 9. (1) The global middle class (mostly China) and (2) the very rich have benefited the most from globalization This, at least partially, explains the growing popularity of nationalist and protectionist ideas Meanwhile, the biggest losers (or at least the non-winners) are (1) the very poor and (2) the middle class in advanced economies Change in real income between 1988 and 2008 at various percentiles of global income distribution (calculated in 2005 international dollars) Realincrease(%) Percentile of global income distribution WHO BENEFITS THE MOST FROM GLOBALIZATION? Global middle class Top 1% Bottom 5% Advanced economy middle class Source: Branko Milanovic, Global income inequality by the numbers: in history and now - an overview
  10. 10. IF MANY PEOPLE FEEL LEFT BEHIND, THIS AFFECTS POLITICAL OUTCOMES
  11. 11. Avots: Jan Kruger/Getty Images PEOPLE VOTE FOR SOMEBODY WHO PROMISES TO MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND PUT AMERICA FIRST
  12. 12. Source: By Foreign and Commonwealth Office - International Atomic Energy Agency Director General, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=73747417 PEOPLE ALSO VOTE FOR BREXIT
  13. 13. ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EURO AREA IS SLOWING DOWN; GERMANY IS LIKELY TO TECHNICALLY SLIP INTO RECESSION 13 2018 2019 (Forecast) 2020 (Forecast) World 3,6 2,9 3,0 Euro area 1,8 1,1 1,0 Germany 1,4 0,5 0,6 France 1,5 1,3 1,2 Italy 0,9 0,0 0,4 Great Britain 1,4 1,0 0,9 USA 2,9 2,4 2,0 China 6,6 6,1 5,7 Russia 2,3 0,9 1,6 Real GDP growth (%); OECD forecast from September 2019 Source: OECD
  14. 14. EURO AREA INTEREST RATES ARE STILL AT A HISTORICALLY LOW LEVEL Main refinancing rates of central banks (%) 14 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ECB US FRS Bank of England Bank of Japan Source: Bloomberg
  15. 15. ANOTHER INCREASINGLY URGENT MATTER
  16. 16. EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS ARE BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND MORE DAMAGING 16 2018 2017 2008-2017 average/year* 1988-2017 average/year* Number of events 850 740 630 500 Overall losses USD billion 160 350 190 140 Insured losses USD billion 80 140 61 41 World natural catastrophe losses, 2018 *losses adjusted to inflation based on local CPI Sources: Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE
  17. 17. CLIMATE: PHYSICAL AND TRANSITION RISKS 17 • Physical impacts include the economic costs and financial losses resulting from the increasing severity and frequency of extreme climate change-related weather events (such as heat waves, landslides, floods, wildfires and storms) as well as longer term progressive shifts of the climate (such as changes in precipitation, extreme weather variability, ocean acidification, and rising sea levels and average temperatures). • Transition impacts relate to the process of adjustment towards a low-carbon economy. Emissions must eventually reach “net zero” to prevent further climate change. The process of reducing emissions is likely to have significant impact on all sectors of the economy affecting financial assets values. While urgent action is desirable, an abrupt transition could also have an impact on financial stability and the economy more broadly. Source: NGFS (Network for Greening the Financial System)
  18. 18. 18 Source: NGFS • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects the necessary additional energy-related investments compatible with a 1.5°C scenario for the period 2016-2050 to reach USD 830 billion annually. • The European Union alone has identified an annual investment gap amounting to almost EUR 180 billion to achieve its climate and energy targets /NGFS/ A LARGE INVESTMENT GAP
  19. 19. 19 Source: NGFS "Climate-related risks are a source of financial risk and it therefore falls squarely within the mandates of central banks and supervisors to ensure the financial system is resilient to these risks." /NGFS/ WHY WOULD CENTRAL BANKS AND FINANCIAL MARKET SUPERVISORS CARE ABOUT CLIMATE?
  20. 20. OTHER WAYS HOW CLIMATE CHANGE RELATED RISKS COULD AFFECT CENTRAL BANKS 20 o Impacts on macroeconomic and financial variables (growth, productivity, food and energy prices, inflation expectations and insurance costs) o Lending against assets exposed to climate change o Assets with climate related risks in central banks' own portfolios Macroeconomics Monetary policy Asset management Source: Latvijas Banka
  21. 21. 22 IS THERE HOPE?
  22. 22. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IS GETTING MORE INTELLIGENT 23 Customer service 80% of "level one" customer service requests can already be resolved by chatbots, in the remaining 20% of cases seamlessly passing on to a human operator News stories Results of sports games, financial results of companies and even pre-election activities can already now be covered by robots-journalists Sources: IBM, digiday.com, Photo: shutterstock
  23. 23. Manufacturing output is at the highest level ever. Meanwhile manufacturing employment shows a steady 30-year decline A lot more emphasis should be put on increasing the skills and knowledge of the unemployed (and those likely to be unemployed) Source: Mark Muro, MIT Technology Review US manufacturing sector inflation-adjusted output and employment, 1980 to 2015 BETTER PAID MANUFACTURING JOBS BUT FEWER OF THEM 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Real output Employment The diverging lines reflect the sector's improved productivity, automation and technological development
  24. 24. Source: Shutterstock, The Atlantic "The world's 40 largest mega-regions account for two-thirds of all the global economic activity and 85 percent of the world's technological innovation while housing just 18 percent of its people. [..] Mega- regions, if they are to function as integrated economic units, require better, more effective, and faster ways move goods, people, and ideas. High-speed rail accomplishes that, and it also provides a framework for future in-fill development along its corridors." /Richard Florida, 2009/ THIS IS A (MEGA)CITY ERA
  25. 25. Source: Our World In Data, World Bank, OECD, UNESCO LIFE TODAY IS BETTER THAN EVER BEFORE 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1820 1860 1900 1940 1980 Share of people not living in extreme poverty Share of people living in extreme poverty 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1800 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 Literate world population Illiterate world population 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1800 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 Share of people that survive the first 5 years of life Share of people that die before they are 5 years old Extreme poverty Illiteracy Child mortality 94 10 88 15 43 4 2015
  26. 26. 27 QUESTIONS?

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