Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 9 08


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MArket report for Gwinnett County, GA for Sept. 2008

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Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 9 08

  1. 1. Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report September July- August 2008
  2. 2. July Numbers - Updated <ul><li>2130 New Listings </li></ul><ul><li>710 Sold Listings </li></ul><ul><li>741 Listings Pending </li></ul><ul><li>Average 86 Days on Market for Sold Listings </li></ul>
  3. 3. July Numbers - Updated <ul><li>*Listings Pending may have closed in June, may have closed in July, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings. </li></ul>
  4. 4. August Numbers - Preliminary <ul><li>1850 New Listings </li></ul><ul><li>326 Sold Listings </li></ul><ul><li>638 Listings Pending </li></ul><ul><li>Average 95 Days on Market for Sold Listings </li></ul>
  5. 5. August Numbers - Preliminary <ul><li>*While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 700 closed sales for July. </li></ul>
  6. 6. Days on Market (DoM)
  7. 7. Conclusions <ul><li>Days on Market usually drop in April, May and June. I expected to see mid-90 DoM for May (at 96), June (at 90), and July came in at 86. </li></ul><ul><li>Preliminary for August is 95. A drop in the final numbers would be nice. We saw July drop 6 days from prelim to final. </li></ul><ul><li>I’d look for a low 90s in Sept. as a strong sign. </li></ul>
  8. 8. New, Pending & Sold Listings
  9. 9. Conclusions <ul><li>I expect to see August Sales come in around 650 units. I was 10 low for June… </li></ul><ul><li>Last month I was looking for New Listings under 1900, and the prelims are 1850. </li></ul><ul><li>I’d like to be under 1750 for Sept. </li></ul>
  10. 10. July Absorption Rates <ul><li>9806 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of April, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. </li></ul><ul><li>12 month average: 15.2 months inventory </li></ul><ul><li>6 month average: 15.0 months inventory </li></ul><ul><li>3 month average: 13.2 months inventory </li></ul>
  11. 11. August Absorption Rates <ul><li>9534 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of August, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. </li></ul><ul><li>12 month average: 16.0 months inventory </li></ul><ul><li>6 month average: 15.4 months inventory </li></ul><ul><li>3 month average: 15.9 months inventory </li></ul>
  12. 12. Conclusions <ul><li>August numbers aren’t final, but they are probably going to show a seasonal weakening of the market. </li></ul><ul><li>Last month I was calling for July to end up under 13.5 months supply, and it came in at 13.2. I’m looking for 14 months in August after the final numbers come in. </li></ul><ul><li>There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced. </li></ul>
  13. 13. New/Sold Ratio <ul><li>This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy. </li></ul>
  14. 14. New/Sold Ratio <ul><li>In July, 33% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 3 homes that were put up for sale, 1 sold. </li></ul><ul><li>In August, early numbers point to 18% (1:5), but I expect to see that upgrade to 35% for the final numbers. </li></ul>
  15. 15. New/Sold Ratio
  16. 16. Conclusion <ul><li>The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers. </li></ul><ul><li>This number tops around 67% </li></ul><ul><li>Anything under 33% is very weak. </li></ul><ul><li>Look for the mid 30s this summer. </li></ul><ul><li>The latest month is always suspect, as the final numbers are never the same as preliminary. </li></ul>
  17. 17. Average Sales Price <ul><li>July - $220,446 Down 9.6% from July, 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>August - $219,110 Down 11.1% from August 2007 </li></ul>
  18. 18. Average Sales Price <ul><li>Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges. </li></ul><ul><li>This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense. </li></ul>
  19. 19. List Price/Sales Price Ratio <ul><li>July – 95.25% </li></ul><ul><li>August – 95.72% </li></ul><ul><li>Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List, although there have been some dips into the high 96% range in the last few months. </li></ul><ul><li>Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market. </li></ul>
  20. 20. Conclusion <ul><li>List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength. </li></ul><ul><li>It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing. </li></ul><ul><li>The indications are also very general. </li></ul>
  21. 21. Overall Conclusion <ul><li>While I always expect to see seasonal increases this time of year, the numbers are fairly strong. Yet, August prelims are looking a little weaker than I’d like. </li></ul><ul><li>Last year I was calling for a 2 nd Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but we need to see how Fall goes to know if there is recovery or just positive seasonality. </li></ul><ul><li>There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals. </li></ul><ul><li>Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy. </li></ul>