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Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 2 09


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Gwinnett County, GA real estate market report for February 2009

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Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 2 09

  1. 1. Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report February December 08 – January 09
  2. 2. December Numbers - Updated <ul><li>1291 New Listings </li></ul><ul><li>503 Sold Listings </li></ul><ul><li>520 Listings Pending </li></ul><ul><li>Average 93 Days on Market for Sold Listings </li></ul>
  3. 3. December Numbers - Final <ul><li>*Listings Pending may have closed in November, may have closed in December, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings. </li></ul>
  4. 4. January Numbers - Preliminary <ul><li>1881 New Listings </li></ul><ul><li>305 Sold Listings </li></ul><ul><li>564 Listings Pending </li></ul><ul><li>Average 101 Days on Market for Sold Listings </li></ul>
  5. 5. January Numbers - Preliminary <ul><li>*While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 475 closed sales for January. </li></ul>
  6. 6. Days on Market (DoM)
  7. 7. Conclusions <ul><li>Final for December is 93. </li></ul><ul><li>I was looking for the under 90… preliminary was 89 days. 93 wasn’t great, </li></ul><ul><li>For January, preliminary is 101. </li></ul><ul><li>I would really like to see numbers stay under 90 into February. </li></ul>
  8. 8. New, Pending & Sold Listings
  9. 9. December Absorption Rates <ul><li>7700 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Sept, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. </li></ul><ul><li>12 month average: 13.0 months inventory </li></ul><ul><li>6 month average: 13.1 months inventory </li></ul><ul><li>3 month average: 15.9 months inventory </li></ul>
  10. 10. January Absorption Rates <ul><li>7718 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Dec., and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. </li></ul><ul><li>12 month average: 13.2 months inventory </li></ul><ul><li>6 month average: 14.9 months inventory </li></ul><ul><li>3 month average: 19.6 months inventory </li></ul>
  11. 11. Conclusions <ul><li>Dec. final numbers showed sales down 12% from 2007. Also important, 7.9% more homes Closed in Dec than went under contract in Nov. The question would be whether these are sales that would have closed in Nov or Jan. </li></ul><ul><li>December final numbers ended up with a reasonably strong showing compared to preliminaries. </li></ul><ul><li>There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced. No matter how you slice it we are 2-3 times that. </li></ul>
  12. 12. New/Sold Ratio <ul><li>This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy. </li></ul>
  13. 13. New/Sold Ratio <ul><li>In Dec., 39% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 10 homes that were put up for sale, 4 sold. I thought we would get to 30%. </li></ul><ul><li>In Jan., early numbers point to 16% (1:6), and I only expect to see that upgrade to 25% for the final numbers. </li></ul>
  14. 14. New/Sold Ratio
  15. 15. Conclusion <ul><li>The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers. </li></ul><ul><li>This number tops around 67% </li></ul><ul><li>Anything under 33% is very weak. </li></ul><ul><li>I expect there to be a seasonal “pop” for Dec. and a fizzle for January. </li></ul>
  16. 16. Average Sales Price <ul><li>Dec. - $206,741 Down 14.6% from December 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Jan. - $178,590 Down 20.2% from January 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>The Sept. numbers showed an average under $200k for the first time since I started keeping track in January 2005, but it has bounced back… until January. We’ll have to see the finals. </li></ul>
  17. 17. Average Sales Price <ul><li>Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges. </li></ul><ul><li>This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense. </li></ul>
  18. 18. List Price/Sales Price Ratio <ul><li>December – 93.02% </li></ul><ul><li>January – 93.80% </li></ul><ul><li>Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List. We’ve been under 96% since June ’08. </li></ul><ul><li>Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market, but it does show “Seller Capitulation.” </li></ul>
  19. 19. Conclusion <ul><li>List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength. </li></ul><ul><li>It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing. </li></ul><ul><li>The indications are also very general. </li></ul>
  20. 20. Overall Conclusion <ul><li>Right now my big concern is “Pendings Failures”. They have been running 3-4 times what it was just a few months ago (except December). </li></ul><ul><li>Last year I was calling for a 2 nd Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but I think we might just skip along the bottom for a few months. </li></ul>
  21. 21. Overall Conclusions <ul><li>September being up in sales was important, but not conclusive. It was against a weak month last year. </li></ul><ul><li>I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. We might be on the bottom, but can’t really know that until next spring. </li></ul><ul><li>There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals. </li></ul><ul><li>Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy. </li></ul>
  22. 22. Overall Conclusions <ul><li>I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis. </li></ul><ul><li>I really want to see more of the Pending Sales make it to the closing table. </li></ul><ul><li>March-May will be pivotal in the Atlanta area market. Spring is the strong season. </li></ul><ul><li>I still think that if we aren’t AT the bottom, we can see it from here. </li></ul>