Mortgage Monitor March 2014

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Mortgage Monitor March 2014

  1. 1. Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor Mortgage Market Performance Observations Data as of March, 2014 Month-end
  2. 2. 2 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Focus Points • March 2014 performance update – delinquencies and foreclosures – Regional trends, HPI, active population characteristics • Extended foreclosure timelines • Originations – HARP, jumbo trends, originations characteristics, recent performance • Affordability
  3. 3. 3 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. March data “First Look” Mar-14 Month-over- month change Year-over- year change 5.52% -7.57% -16.29% 2.13% -4.23% -36.69% 88,100 -4.24% -27.19% 0.80% 20.84% -57.67% 1.83% 9.15% -6.37% 2,770,000 -221,000 -538,000 1,199,000 -43,000 -267,000 1,070,000 -45,000 -619,000 3,840,000 -266,000 -1,156,000 Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure:​ Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure:​ Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:​ Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure:​ Monthly Prepayment Rate (SMM): Foreclosure Sales as % of 90+: 12 Month Trend Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure):​ Total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate:​ Total U.S. foreclosure starts:
  4. 4. 4 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Seasonal trend – March 2014 biggest drop in delinquencies in three years
  5. 5. 5 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Delinquencies and Foreclosures continue decline Delinquency % - lowest since October 2007 (5.37%) Foreclosure % - lowest since October 2008 (2.07%)
  6. 6. 6 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Leading Indicators have been pointing to improvement
  7. 7. 7 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. From 2005 to 2009 the crisis spread nationwide, impacting all regions Non-Current Rates: January 2005 Non-Current Rates: January 2010
  8. 8. 8 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. The State of the Union today: National improvement, but some trouble spots remain
  9. 9. 9 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Non-judicial states have experienced greater improvement Non-Judicial: Down 53.9% from Peak Judicial: Down 38.5% from Peak
  10. 10. 10 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Change in Non-Current % correlates with change in HPI
  11. 11. 11 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Negative Equity is on decline, clear difference between judicial vs. non-judicial
  12. 12. 12 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Equity and Credit Standards improved since 2010 Jan 2010 Jan 2014 Credit Score/ CLTV <620 620-659 660-699 700-739 740-779 780+ Total 1-60 1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 8% 20% 61-80 1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 6% 20% 81-100 3% 3% 4% 5% 6% 5% 26% 101-120 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 15% 121-150 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 9% 150+ 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 10% Total 11% 10% 16% 19% 23% 22% 100% Credit Score/ CLTV <620 620-659 660-699 700-739 740-779 780+ Total 1-60 1% 2% 3% 4% 7% 14% 31% 61-80 2% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 32% 81-100 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 27% 101-120 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 6% 121-150 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% 150+ 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Total 9% 10% 14% 17% 22% 29% 100% Negative Equity 34% Negative Equity 10% 48% 35%
  13. 13. 13 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Days in Delinquency for Foreclosure Inventories continues to go up
  14. 14. 14 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Foreclosure Sales for aged inventory are highest in count
  15. 15. 15 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. …but low by percentage of inventory
  16. 16. 16 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Aged Foreclosures % at all time high
  17. 17. 17 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Originations at the lowest level in over 10 years Almost 13% are investor (non-owner occupied) properties
  18. 18. 18 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. High LTV GSE originations (HARP and Streamlines) dropped sharply since mid-2013 HARP volume was down 70% year over year* Over 6M Total HARP and GSE streamline since April 2009* *FHFA Refinance Report – Nov 13
  19. 19. 19 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. The government share of originations has decreased Private Portfolio GSE FHA / VA Vintage Gov’t % 2009 91% 2010 89% 2011 87% 2012 84% 2013 83%
  20. 20. 20 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Towards the end of 2013 jumbo loans represented over 9% of total originations Weighted Credit Score Jumbo 765 Non-Jumbo 750
  21. 21. 21 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Jumbo Rates more attractive than non-jumbo
  22. 22. 22 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Underwriting criteria is still very strict compared to pre-bubble vintages CreditScoreAtOrigination
  23. 23. 23 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. As a result, 2013 is the best performing vintage on record TotalDelinquencyat6thPayment LTV<80%, Credit Score>=720
  24. 24. 24 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Payment to Income ratio still below pre-crisis levels overall, but varies by state
  25. 25. 25 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. In 2006 only 4 states were below most recent index of 22% - IN, NE, IA, OH
  26. 26. 26 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. NY and CA are the least affordable states currently
  27. 27. 27 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. BKFS Mortgage Monitor Appendix Data as of March, 2014 Month-end
  28. 28. 28 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. March 2014 Data Summary March Summary Statistics Mar-14 Monthly Change YTD Change Yearly Change Delinquencies 5.52% -7.57% -14.67% -16.29% Foreclosure 2.13% -4.23% -14.12% -36.69% Foreclosure Starts 88,113 -4.22% -15.89% -27.19% Seriously Delinquent (90+) or in Foreclosure 4.52% -3.92% -10.23% -28.12% New Originations (data as of Feb-14) 238K -33.5% -52.5% -66.8% 12 Month History Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Delinquencies 5.97% 6.27% 6.47% 6.45% 6.28% 6.46% 6.20% 6.41% 6.68% 6.08% 6.21% 6.59% 6.80% Foreclosure 2.22% 2.35% 2.48% 2.50% 2.54% 2.63% 2.66% 2.82% 2.93% 3.05% 3.17% 3.37% 3.38% Foreclosure Starts 91,993 94,075 104,759 104,939 118,837 108,953 107,552 112,849 109,042 116,812 127,496 121,012 131,826 Seriously Delinquent (90+) or in Foreclosure 4.70% 4.92% 5.03% 5.05% 5.10% 5.26% 5.22% 5.53% 5.62% 5.71% 5.95% 6.29% 6.34% New Originations 238K 358K 454K 443K 501K 520K 660K 752K 785K 840K 802K 781K 6.80% 6.59% 6.21% 6.08% 6.68% 6.41% 6.20% 6.46% 6.28% 6.45% 6.47% 6.27% 5.97% Total Delinquencies 781K 802K 840K 785K 752K 660K 520K 501K 443K 454K 358K 238K New Originations
  29. 29. 29 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Seven of the top 10 states for total non-current are judicial State Del % FC % Non- Curr % Yr/Yr Change in NC% State Del % FC % Non- Curr % Yr/Yr Change in NC% State Del % FC % Non- Curr % Yr/Yr Change in NC% National 5.5% 2.1% 7.6% -23.2% National 5.5% 2.1% 7.6% -23.2% National 5.5% 2.1% 7.6% -23.2% MS 11.6% 1.8% 13.4% -12.6% TN 7.5% 1.0% 8.5% -14.2% KS * 5.1% 1.2% 6.3% -16.0% NJ * 6.4% 6.5% 12.9% -20.4% GA 7.4% 1.1% 8.5% -21.2% OR 3.6% 2.3% 5.9% -22.5% FL * 6.1% 6.0% 12.1% -33.6% SC * 6.3% 2.2% 8.4% -19.5% WA 4.0% 1.8% 5.8% -30.2% NY * 5.9% 5.1% 11.1% -17.2% WV 7.2% 1.2% 8.4% -11.4% IA * 4.1% 1.7% 5.8% -18.1% ME * 6.3% 4.3% 10.6% -17.5% IL * 5.3% 3.1% 8.4% -28.4% UT 4.6% 0.9% 5.4% -25.8% LA * 8.5% 2.0% 10.5% -11.7% MA 6.7% 1.6% 8.3% -17.1% VA 4.7% 0.7% 5.3% -18.2% RI 7.8% 2.6% 10.4% -17.0% OK * 5.7% 2.3% 8.0% -14.0% ID 3.6% 1.5% 5.1% -27.0% AL 8.4% 1.2% 9.6% -11.4% VT * 4.7% 2.8% 7.5% -17.0% NE * 4.2% 0.6% 4.8% -15.9% CT * 6.0% 3.5% 9.5% -22.4% KY * 5.6% 1.7% 7.4% -14.9% CA 3.9% 0.8% 4.7% -33.1% MD * 6.7% 2.7% 9.3% -23.5% NM * 4.9% 2.4% 7.3% -15.9% AZ 3.8% 0.7% 4.5% -29.2% PA * 6.5% 2.5% 9.1% -16.2% NC 6.2% 1.1% 7.3% -21.1% MN 3.4% 0.7% 4.0% -21.4% DE * 6.6% 2.5% 9.1% -17.7% DC 4.9% 2.0% 6.9% -20.3% WY 3.5% 0.5% 4.0% -10.7% HI * 4.2% 4.8% 8.9% -17.8% TX 6.1% 0.8% 6.9% -14.2% MT 3.0% 1.0% 3.9% -17.3% IN * 6.7% 2.2% 8.9% -18.1% MO 5.9% 0.9% 6.8% -14.5% CO 3.3% 0.6% 3.9% -22.6% AR 7.3% 1.6% 8.9% -18.8% WI * 5.0% 1.6% 6.7% -21.3% AK 3.3% 0.5% 3.8% -17.0% NV 6.4% 2.5% 8.9% -36.1% NH 5.6% 1.1% 6.7% -18.5% SD * 2.7% 0.8% 3.4% -17.7% OH * 6.3% 2.4% 8.7% -19.8% MI 5.6% 0.9% 6.4% -21.1% ND * 1.9% 0.7% 2.5% -17.6% * - Indicates Judicial State
  30. 30. 30 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Loan counts and average days delinquent Month TOTAL ACTIVE COUNT 30 DAYS 60 DAYS 90+ DAYS FC Total Non- Current FC Starts Average Days Delinquent for 90+ Average Days Delinquent for FC Ratio of 90+ to FC 1/31/2008 54,094,282 1,701,163 664,956 940,832 817,948 4,124,899 197,210 189 255 115.0% 1/31/2009 54,267,187 1,945,997 909,744 1,817,809 1,318,840 5,992,391 249,655 191 321 137.8% 1/31/2010 53,476,523 1,897,603 882,089 2,870,204 2,031,020 7,680,916 282,601 252 417 141.3% 1/31/2011 52,138,710 1,682,266 715,350 1,988,781 2,162,601 6,548,999 261,272 332 528 92.0% 1/31/2012 51,111,780 1,531,458 627,874 1,758,894 2,163,659 6,081,884 219,750 397 668 81.3% 1/31/2013 49,896,142 1,407,343 567,022 1,531,216 1,702,715 5,208,297 147,593 468 814 89.9% 2/28/2013 50,123,564 1,400,311 526,649 1,483,423 1,693,699 5,104,081 131,826 473 824 87.6% 3/31/2013 50,186,364 1,346,310 495,352 1,465,953 1,688,809 4,996,424 121,012 492 834 86.8% 4/30/2013 50,117,188 1,252,302 464,676 1,394,132 1,588,138 4,699,249 127,496 503 843 87.8% 5/31/2013 50,076,535 1,243,193 465,129 1,334,699 1,524,837 4,567,859 116,812 511 852 87.5% 6/30/2013 49,823,992 1,471,134 511,731 1,344,818 1,457,699 4,785,382 109,042 512 860 92.3% 7/31/2013 49,784,184 1,335,498 510,585 1,347,161 1,406,121 4,599,365 112,849 517 876 95.8% 8/31/2013 50,370,772 1,344,657 491,283 1,287,867 1,340,955 4,464,763 107,552 505 895 96.0% 9/30/2013 50,521,857 1,397,119 537,260 1,331,344 1,327,608 4,593,332 108,953 513 895 100.3% 10/31/2013 50,161,457 1,345,175 523,729 1,282,783 1,275,579 4,427,266 118,837 512 900 100.6% 11/30/2013 50,264,345 1,424,197 534,167 1,282,938 1,256,170 4,497,471 104,939 500 905 102.1% 12/31/2013 50,163,956 1,411,348 551,473 1,280,336 1,244,436 4,487,591 104,759 490 920 102.9% 1/31/2014 50,044,899 1,318,673 532,548 1,288,573 1,175,470 4,315,263 94,075 481 943 109.6% 2/28/2014 50,118,665 1,267,410 482,140 1,241,878 1,114,985 4,106,413 91,993 481 956 111.4% 3/31/2014 50,211,856 1,135,658 435,521 1,198,907 1,069,791 3,839,877 88,113 496 966 112.1%
  31. 31. 31 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. BKFS Mortgage Monitor Disclosures: Product / Metric Definitions and Market Sizing
  32. 32. 32 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Disclosure Page: Product Definitions *Conforming limits do not account for temporary or high-cost area increases.
  33. 33. 33 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Disclosure Page: Metrics Definitions • Total Active Count: All active loans as of month-end including loans in any state of delinquency or foreclosure. Post-sale loans and loans in REO are excluded from the total active count. • Delinquency Statuses (30, 60, 90+, etc): All delinquency statuses are calculated using the MBA methodology based on the payment due date provided by the servicer. Loans in foreclosure are reported separately and are not included in the MBA days delinquent. • 90 Day Defaults: Loans that were less than 90 days delinquent in the prior month and were 90 days delinquent, but not in foreclosure, in the current month. • Foreclosure Inventory: The servicer has referred the loan to an attorney for foreclosure. Loans remain in foreclosure inventory from referral to sale. • Foreclosure Starts – Any active loan that was not in foreclosure in the prior month that moves into foreclosure inventory in the current month. • Non-Current: Loans in any stage of delinquency or foreclosure. • Foreclosure Sale / New REO: Any loan that was in foreclosure in the prior month that moves into post-sale status or is flagged as a foreclosure liquidation. • REO: The loan is in post-sale foreclosure status. Listing status is not a consideration, this includes all properties on and off the market. • Deterioration Ratio: The ratio of the percentage of loans deteriorating in delinquency status vs. those improving.
  34. 34. 34 Black Knight Financial Services TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, or an affiliate.
© 2014 BKIS, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Disclosure Page: Extrapolation Methodology Mortgage statistics are scaled to estimate the total market performance based on coverage within the McDash database. The following table contains information on market coverage by product as of June 2012; extrapolations also include adjustments for vintage and as of date. Additional information is available upon request.

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