Agriculture, Health and Food-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases - Dr Joachim Otte, FAO

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Agriculture, Health and Food-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases - Dr Joachim Otte, FAO

  1. 1. Agriculture, Health and Food-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases Joachim Otte et al . Building an Integrated Agriculture and Health Agenda: Issues for International Research & Policy London, 23 June 2010
  2. 2. Food, Agriculture and Emergence of Zoonotic Diseases Joachim Otte et al. Building an Integrated Agriculture and Health Agenda: Issues for International Research & Policy London, 23 June 2010
  3. 3. Outline <ul><li>Drivers, risks & vulnerability / resilience of society </li></ul><ul><li>Wildlife : human interface </li></ul><ul><li>Livestock sector intensification – example: China poultry and HPAI H5N1 </li></ul><ul><li>Trends in disease emergence </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges for an ‘integrated’ health agenda </li></ul>
  4. 4. Meat demand growth 2000 - 2030 Million MTs % Source: FAO Projections 725
  5. 5. Pathogen reservoirs & risk factors Domestic animal ‘ pool ’ Human ‘ pool’ Wildlife ‘ pool ’ Adapted from Daszak et al. 2008 <ul><li>Vulnerability / Resilience </li></ul><ul><li>Ageing population </li></ul><ul><li>Social cohesion </li></ul><ul><li>Migrant labour </li></ul><ul><li>International interactions </li></ul><ul><li>Public / media openness </li></ul><ul><li>Political leadership </li></ul><ul><li>General education </li></ul><ul><li>Information dissemination </li></ul><ul><li>Pathogen identification </li></ul><ul><li>Vaccines & anti-virals </li></ul><ul><li>Waste disposal </li></ul><ul><li>etc. </li></ul>Nicoll et al. 2009 Encroachment Spill-over Spill back Altered ecology Translocation Growth Travel Urbanization Pop. growth Intensification Encroachment Altered ecology Technology Food habits
  6. 6. Wildlife : Human Interface
  7. 7. Wildlife : human interface (1) Source: Wolfe et al. 2004 and 2005 <ul><li>Consumption of bushmeat in Congo basin estimated at about 300g/person/day </li></ul><ul><li>4.5 million MTs extracted/year </li></ul><ul><li>Road construction: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>increases area in which hunting becomes economical </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>increases returns to logging (selective extraction) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>results in habitat fragmentation, which in turn affects infection risk </li></ul></ul><ul><li>‘ Viral chatter’, e.g. simian foamy virus, T-cell lymphocyte virus, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Epidemics: Ebola, Monkeypox, HIV-1 and -2, etc. </li></ul>Exposure to nonhuman primates in rural Cameroon %
  8. 8. Animal Production and Health Division
  9. 9. Manado, Indonesia, 2007 Manado, Indonesia, 2007 Animal Production and Health Division Animal Production and Health Division Manado, Indonesia, 2007
  10. 10. Manado, Indonesia, 2007 Manado, Indonesia, 2007 Animal Production and Health Division Animal Production and Health Division
  11. 11. Wildlife : human interface (2) Urban food waste available to scavengers g/person/day Source: Luck 2010
  12. 12. Animal Production and Health Division Marabu Hyena Baboon Pig
  13. 13. Intensification of Agriculture (Livestock Production)
  14. 14. China: Meat consumption & production kg/capita/year Source: FAOSTAT 1990 = 100 Consumption Production
  15. 15. China: Poultry density, 2005 GLW, 2007
  16. 16. India: Poultry density, 2005 GLW, 2007
  17. 17. India: Population density, 2005 CIESIN et al. , 2004
  18. 18. China: Population density, 2005 CIESIN et al. , 2004
  19. 19. Bingsheng & Yijun, 2007 China: Poultry farm density, 1996
  20. 20. Bingsheng & Yijun, 2007 China: Poultry farm density, 2005
  21. 21. China: Structure of broiler and layer sectors Source: Bingsheng and Yijun. 2007 Broiler Sector Layer Sector
  22. 22. Informal Processing Formal, Integrated, Poultry Production Live Bird Markets ‘ Semi-formal Markets
  23. 23. Bingsheng & Yijun, 2007 China: % poultry farms > 50k birds, 2005 gs/Guangdong/1/96
  24. 24. 0 3 4 7 5 6 9 8 1 2 2.1.1 2.1.2 2.1.3 2.5 2.3.1 2.3.2 2.3.4 2.4 2.2 2.3.3 H5N1 Clades Over 1996 to 2008, parent virus gs/GD/1/96 has evolved resulting in 10 different clades ( K. Inui, FAO VN ) ck/Nongkhai/NIAH400802/07 ck/TH/NP172/06 Guangzhou/1/06 JapaneseWhiteEye/HK/1038/06 Anhui/1/05 dk/Laos/3295/06 ck/Malaysia/935/06 commonmagpie/HK/645/06 Zhejiang/16/06 JapaneseWhiteEye/HongKong/73720/07 WhiteBackedMunia/HongKong/82820/07 Guangxi/1/05 dk/Guiyang/3009/05 dk/Guiyang/3242/05 gs/Guiyang/3422/05 ck/Guiyang3/055/05 gs/Yunnan/4494/05 gs/Guangxi/3017/05 gs/Guangxi/345/05 gs/Guangxi/3316/05 dk/Hunan/127/05 dk/Hunan/149/05 dk/Hunan/152/05 dk/Hunan/139/05 Egypt/0636NAMRU320/07 Egret/Egypt/1162NAMRU3/06 dk/Egypt/22533/06 Egypt/14724NAMRU320/06 turkey/Turkey1//05 WhooperSwan/Mongolia/244/05 Nigeria/6e20/07 ck/Nigeria/641/06 Turkey/15/06 Iraq/207NAMRU3/06 Azerbaijan/001161/06 ck/Krasnodar/01/06 swan/Iran/754/06 ck/Liaoning/23/05 Barhdgs/Qinghai12/05 Barhdgs/Qinghai1A/05 ck/Kyoto/3/04 crow/Kyoto/53/04 ck/Yamaguchi/7/04 ck/Korea/ES/03 dk/Guangxi/13/04 ck/YN/115/04 ck/YN/374/04 Indonesia/CDC1046/07 Indonesia/CDC103220/07 Indonesia/CDC938/06 Indonesia/CDC887/06 Indonesia/CDC1047/07 Indonesia/283H/06 Indonesia/326N/06 Indonesia/CDC742/06 Indonesia/370E/06 Indonesia/5/05 Indonesia/CDC940/06 Indonesia/546bH/06 Indonesia/596/06 Indonesia/599/06 Indonesia/625/06 dk/Indonesia/MS/04 ck/Indonesia/4/04 ck/Indonesia/11/03 ck/Indonesia/7/03 VN/JP14/05 ck/Cambodia/013LC1b/05 VN/1194/04 VN/1203/04 VN/HN3/0408/05 TH/16/04 TH/676/05 VN/JPHN30321/05 HK/213/03 ck/Henan/16/04 ck/Henan/01/04 ck/Henan/13/04 ck/Henan/12/04 dk/Guangxi/50/01 ck/HK/YU777/02 ck/HK/YU22/02 migdk/Jiangxi1653/05 dk/Guangxi/2775/05 ck/Hunan/41/04 blbird/Hunan1/04 treesparrow/Henan/4/04 dk/Hubei/wg/02 sw/Anhui/ca/04 dk/Guangxi/1378/04 dk/Guangxi/1681/04 dk/Guangxi/1311/04 dk/Guangxi/2396/04 ck/Hunan/2292/06 ck/Shanxi/2/06 ck/Myanmar/06010011B/06 dk/Guiyang/504/06 ck/Guiyang237/06 gs/Guiyang/337/06 gs/Guiyang/1325/06 ck/Guiyang441/06 ck/Guiyang1218/06 ck/Guiyang846/06 ck/HK/8911/01 ck/HK/SF219/01 ck/HK/8791/01 gs/Guangdong/1/96 0.005
  25. 25. HA clades of HPAIV H5N1 around Asia, Africa and Europe 2.2 1 2.3 2.1 1 2.3 0, 1, 2.1 - 2.5, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 2.32.4 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
  26. 26. Selection for virulence <ul><li>Mode of transmission: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(i) horizontal ; vertical </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(ii) indirect ; direct </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Host homogeneity </li></ul><ul><li>Host cluster connectivity </li></ul><ul><li>Within-host strain competition </li></ul><ul><li>Vaccination or </li></ul><ul><li>Culling </li></ul><ul><li>Treatment or </li></ul>Sources: Galvani 2003, 2008
  27. 27. Trends in Disease Emergence & Integrated Research
  28. 28. Human pathogens 15% 19% 44% 38% 31% 30% N=868 N=175 N=1,415 Number Source: Taylor et al. 2001 Noro virus SARS virus Nipah virus Ebola virus
  29. 29. The known unknowns <ul><li>There are 50,000 known vertebrate species. Assuming each has 20 endemic viruses, there are likely over 1 million vertebrate viruses (20,000 in bats alone) </li></ul><ul><li>Only 2,000 or so viruses have been described, so 99.8% of vertebrate viruses remain to be discovered </li></ul><ul><li>Large potential for further emergence of zoonoses! </li></ul>Source: Daszak 2009 Insects, 751,000 Protozoa, 30,800 Other animals, 281,000 Higher plants, 248,000 Fungi, 69,000 Algae, 26,900 Viruses, 1,600 All organisms, total species: 1,413,000 Bacteria, 4,800
  30. 30. An integrated health agenda <ul><li>Disciplines </li></ul><ul><li>Social anthropology </li></ul><ul><li>Economics </li></ul><ul><li>Political sciences </li></ul><ul><li>Agronomy </li></ul><ul><li>Veterinary science </li></ul><ul><li>Animal husbandry </li></ul><ul><li>Human medicine </li></ul><ul><li>Epidemiology & ecology </li></ul><ul><li>Molecular genetics </li></ul><ul><li>Evolutionary biology </li></ul><ul><li>etc.... </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges </li></ul><ul><li>Scientific fragmentation </li></ul><ul><li>Competition between ‘schools’ </li></ul><ul><li>Institutional turfs </li></ul><ul><li>Public sector vs private sector research / IP </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Cost-recovery’ in public sector research </li></ul><ul><li>Divide between science and application </li></ul>
  31. 31. Animal Production and Health Division Livestock Sector Analysis, Information & Policy Branch

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