Nikki Jones
Jul. 25, 2018•0 likes•977 views
Download to read offline
Report
Business
Nikki warned that we are increasing global CO2 emissions by 2-3ppm (parts per million) per year and our current emissions are at 411.21ppm. She stressed that with 450ppm being considered commensurate with 2°C, urgent action is needed.
Recommended
IEA fossil fuel emissions & WEO 2013Peter Carter
Climate Change. Policy paths and Carbon Tracker action. April 2014CarbonTracker
Energy for Humanity European Climate Leadership ReportKirsty Gogan Alexander
Carbon TaxTeam Pramkaew
Carbon Tax vs. Carbon Credits - Harvard University - by Robert Wensley and Je...Robert Wensley
Looking for Leadership: The Cost of Climate InactionThis account is closed
More Related Content
What's hot
The Genius methods and practical of reducing emissions by 90% by 2035mohammedmostafa86
Renewable energy in the UKOffice for National Statistics
Climate Change as an Opportunityvillehulkkonen
UK Climate ProjectionsDefra
Mitigation from a Global PerspectiveClimate Action Network South Asia
Effectiveness of Economic Sanctions Against Russia?Paul H Carr
Similar to Nikki Jones
Deep decarbonisation of Ireland's energy systemIEA-ETSAP
ENV GLOBAL FORUM OCT 2016 - Session 3 - Sir David King OECD Environment
DecarboN8 Carbon Pathways Workshop: Kevin Anderson - Aligning UK Car CO2 with...DecarboN8
Co2 emissions, emission by fules &co2 UtilisationMuseeb Bin Bashir
The Kyoto protocolSteven Heath
AGM 2010 presentations Vicky
More from The Future Economy Network
Furong LiThe Future Economy Network
Oliver SpinkThe Future Economy Network
Sarah EagerThe Future Economy Network
Peter DennisThe Future Economy Network
david mason, low carbon construction - challenges, trends and technologies, l...The Future Economy Network
Laura Zuluaga Cardona University of Bath Business university collaboration 14...The Future Economy Network
Recently uploaded
Global Principles on Artificial Intelligence (AI)Vittorio Pasteris
SaaStr Fan Fav: The Latest 2023 Napkin Reveal with Christoph Janzsaastr
Clearitt | Cooperative PaymentsRichardJohnsson
Companny Profile 2022.pdfapandimnpi
Corporate Governance for South African Mining Companies (a practitioner's view)James AH Campbell
13. Gary Dessler - Human resource management (2020).pdfmin chan myae
Nikki Jones
- 3. Are sea levels rising? Antarctic ice melt tripled last 5 years
- 4. February 2018 Nat Academy of Sciences report Fed gov’s Climate Assessment Report • sea level rise accelerating as thermal expansion & ice melting likely rise of 15 – 35cm by 2050 and 30 – 120cm by 2100 – could be as high as 2.4m on high emission path – rising by 1cm / year by 2100 •
- 5. Louisiana – aggressive retreat
- 6. Paris – summer 2016 & Jan 2018
- 7. Drought predictions now real
- 9. Not just heat….
- 10. CO2 in Seawater becomes Carbonic Acid: pH of our oceans has dropped 30% since 1990
- 13. When do we reach 1.5°C warming? • Current global average 1.15° warmer • United Nations Environment Programme says we have 2 years approx to make decisions to stay below • IPCC putting out special report on 1.5° in 2018
- 14. When could we reach 2 degrees? • Next 5 – 10 years to make decisions… • • 2035? 2040? • Already discussion of over-shooting… •
- 18. The World is Changing… • Changing economics of energy • Public pressure on fossil fuel companies • The world of finance is changing • Government regulation / policy • New technology • Corporate & consumer pressure • • Focus is on energy – but don’t forget land use – cement is 5%...
- 19. Does UK consumption matter? • Only 1 – 1.5% of total • But responsible for much of what active now • Basis of Paris agreement • • Still 6th biggest economy – multinats are 50% -can change economics, political and social culture • We all have to face ourselves…
- 20. Low growth – increased since 2017
- 22. So why is there so much focus on electricity?
- 23. Electricity offers best hope of decarbonising transport & heat…
- 24. Some surprising trends…. • Fuel consumption on long term decline, (1.8% / yr) despite growing population and economy - expected to reverse 2025??? • Commitment to ending all coal fired power production by 2025 • Significant strides for renewables in power production (but not in heat or transport) • Significant drops in greenhouse gas emissions (but not enough for Paris / UK commitments) •
- 25. Our energy use is highly weather dependent….
- 26. Energy efficiency / conservation
- 27. Fossil-fuelled electricity is extremely wasteful
- 29. So are we accurately measuring? Embedded energy….
- 31. Shipping & aviation emissions not included in country figures
- 32. So…. • UK consumption of fuel not going down as figures suggest • • • But declining consumption within UK borders is context for energy policy
- 34. Global target…. • • To stay below 2°C warming compared with pre-industrial times. Preferably closer to 1.5°C. We are already at 1.5°C in UK. • To peak global greenhouse gas emissions no later than 2020 and to cut back rapidly from there.
- 35. The UK’s emission targets • 35% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, from 1990 level • 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, from 1990 level; 50% by 2025, 57% by 2032 • 100% by 2100 • Paris : 100% by 2050
- 37. Unlikely to meet Climate Change Act budgets without ‘flexibilities’ • Carry forward over-achievement from previous budgets • Borrow from later budget (1% max) • Use International Carbon Credits • Committee on CC: urgent repeal of ban on onshore wind, tax company vehicles & zero- carbon homes
- 38. David King’s legal challenge… • Under Paris, UK committed to 100% reduction by 2050 – but haven’t enshrined in Climate Change Act – now considering • ‘The science has clearly hardened since the Climate Change Act was agreed…our current course takes us to catastrophe, then to stick to current course is irrational…The best available science tells us the risks of crossing tipping points rise very sharply between 1.5 and 2 degrees…’
- 39. Need to cut 2 – 3% every year till 2030 to meet 5th carbon budget
- 41. Little progress in heating or transport
- 42. Need to decarbonise power and accommodate heat & transport
- 43. All our nuclear scheduled to close
- 44. Coal could come back… • Currently £23/tonne carbon price – fixed till 2020 • Currently in European Trading System….. • Need £40/tonne to keep coal off grid as coal price likely to drop, gas to increase • Surge in corporate planning for cost of carbon – another 782 companies planning internal price by 2019 - but opening new mines….
- 45. Biomass – we don’t count the emissions…. Nor the full LCA of gas
- 46. More can be done…. • Scotland – 68.1% renewable electricity in 2017 • Wales – 43% plus • • Northern Ireland aiming 40% by 2020
- 47. What’s in the Clean Growth Plan? • More nuclear, more gas • Commitment to off-shore wind till 2025 • Renewed commitment to carbon capture and storage • Promotion of EVs • Insulation in homes • Heat pumps and hydrogen • But complete drop in hydro, solar, onshore wind, no tidal or pumped storage. • More waste-to-energy & biomass.
- 48. Latest government projections for electricity
Editor's Notes
- How do we measure CO2? Peak in April 2017 409.01 – Keeling curve – Mauna Loa is in Hawaii Carbon / CO2 – 5thyear of adding 2 ppm https://www.co2.earth/
- El Nino at beginning of 2016 (small boost), weak El Nina in fall http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/2016-was-the-hottest-year-on-record
- June: Antarctica ice melt has put up sea level by 0.8mm since 1992, a fifth of this since 2012– rate of loss has tripled in last 5 year… - Carbon BriefThird of 20 C sea level rise is from Greenland melting - Over the period 1901 – 2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19m. The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19thcentury has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence). (2014 report)Now 3mm per year in 21stC - 3cm per decadehttps://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/27/best-way-limit-sea-level-rise-stop-burning-coal/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+IM-cleantechnica+%28CleanTechnica%29– could be 1.3 metres by 2100
- US climate change outlook worsens after further research (FT 20.2.18) https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/01/sea-level-rise-continuing-accelerate-every-year-study-finds/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+IM-cleantechnica+%28CleanTechnica%29– sea level rise acceleration of 0.08cm – means could be 1cm per year by 2100 Nat Academy of Sciences in US
- A third of 20C rise is from Greenland melting – if all melts, 23’ – 5 meters
- https://cleantechnica.com/2017/11/01/droughts-europe-trending-climate-change-predictions-study-finds/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+IM-cleantechnica+%28CleanTechnica%29 – Difference from 1980s?
- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/ Frog in boiling water
- Two reports say should expect colder winters – small chance of complete shut down of AMOC – FT – Global Warming to give colder winters and warmer summers
- 8.6Maldives warns coral bleaching could prompt reef closure – first noticed 3 months ago – 22% of Great Barrier Reef has been killed by summer bleaching event – also Xmas island and Thailand – world’s 3rdmass bleaching event since 1998, made worse by El Nino – can regenerate over time if temperature down – home for about a third of all marine species at some point in their life cycle –
- https://buildeco.wordpress.com/2009/02/13/is-there-a-link-between-adelaide%E2%80%99s-heatwave-and-global-warming/ By 2040 2003 will be normal, by 2060 will be considered cool – lines are for climate models – published in Nature mag 2004: Kevin Anderson – Underground cables cooled by moisture in soil, fridges & water pumps break down, 3 days food in London, tarmac and rail track buckleExpect 8 degree anomalies in Europe, 6 degree in China, 10 – 12 degree in North America
- https://www.carbonbrief.org/pacific-ocean-shift-could-see-1point5-limit-breached-within-decade- uncertainty of when hit 1.5 – could be 2026 – 31 but much sooner? – IPCC to publish special report on 1.5 in 2018 – most likely to over shoot and then come back?? –in 2016 1.1 degree warming – 1.5 also depends on natural cycle in Pacific Ocean – Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation – warming is slower in negative phases (early 2000s), was fast in 80s and 90s – has longer phases than El Nino – last year said would blow the budget within 4 years for 1.5 –
- Representative Concentration Pathways – to stabilise need to make emissions negative – effects now are already irreversible over millennia = even in best scenario will take us centuries to get below 350 degrees
- https://cleantechnica.com/2017/11/16/global-progress-towards-paris-agreement-2c-target-looms-large-despite-minor-improvements-climate-action-tracker/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+IM-cleantechnica+%28CleanTechnica%29
- Gas down 2 in 2018, oil steady, coal at 9, rens at 22 Gas figures from Nat Grid Future Energy Scenarios DUKES 17 – FFs are 81% of UK primary fuel – a record low - primary energy down 1.4%, 2.3% on temp adjusted basis https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/633503/ECUK_2017.pdf – Energy Consumption in the UK 2017
- Partly because takes so much energy to make electricity and get to us. Highest emissions no longer true. But big pressure on this sector to help decarbonise others…
- A lot of pressure on power sector… but mustn’t forget other two…
- Some mega trends…. UK has average 1.8%/year drop over last ten years
- Primary energy, Temp adjustment, weather dep, Mtoe DUKES 2017
- Distributed generation is now 26GW out of 34 GW renewables - The fifth energy… Despite growing pop and econ – 30% increase in embedded generation straight to DNO 2016-17, expect 50% of total by 2030 System has been based on supply – dispatchables - – change is scary… coal, nuclear… not enough CCGT 30% increase in embedded generation, invisible to grid, straight to DNO, 2016 – 17 ; Nat Grid expects 50% of total by 2030 http://www.newpower.info/2017/06/data-show-rising-contribution-from-embedded-generation/
- DUKES 2017
- Who is making all these big cuts? Can see big trend down is in industry
- Territorial emissions – economy runs on stuff where energy expended abroad…
- Stuff, heating/cooling, car & flights….. 195 kWh/d per person
- Two other sectors of energy usage that not recorded in official UK figures – aviation/shipping & embedded UK emissions do not include international aviation or shipping 7.10Aviation pact on global warming wins go-ahead – first international aviation deal – nearly 200 delegates approved – day after Paris ratified and will come into effect on Nov 4th– helped by Trudeau, who announced a carbon pricing plan on Monday that could lead to a tax of C$50/tonne by 2022, more than 5 x EU TS –
- Energy consumption doesn’t matter – emissions count… PPM - UNEP says 3 years to stay below 1.5 degrees. Scientists hail progress in fighting growth of CO2 emissions – 3rdyear in a row – expected to rise 0.2% in 2016 – didn’t increase in 2015 and up 0.7% in 2014 – 2013 was 2.3%
- Legally binding carbon budgets… from 1990 levels
- 2008 – 2027 – just ended CB 2 , now into 3, 2018 – 22; https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/671187/Updated_energy_and_emissions_projections_2017.pdf Jan 2018 Next budget is 57% by 2032 – UK carbon emissions fall to late Victorian levels http://www.nature.com/news/prove-paris-was-more-than-paper-promises-1.22378?WT.mc_id=TWT_NatureNews&sf102669289=1 No European country meeting Paris targets
- 17.3UK carbon targets likely to be missed without rapid action – CCC says Clean Growth Strategy needs further detail – aim should be 60% of cars by 2030 – new homes built to full standards – CGS includes £120m for carbon capture – 3 easy wins, cut company car tax for EVs, repeal ban on onshore wind, reboot Zero Carbon Homes – all within 6 months
- https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/17/uk-to-review-climate-target-raising-hopes-of-a-zero-emissions-pledge?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Green+Light+2016&utm_term=272146&subid=778475&CMP=EMCENVEML1631http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41401656 – Plan B Earth http://climatecasechart.com/non-us-case/plan-b-earth-others-v-secretary-state-business-energy-industrial-strategy/
- But scientists telling us need to cut more…
- https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/604327/2016_Provisional_emissions_statistics_one_page_summary.pdf – provisional 2016 figures show further 19% reduction in emissions from power sector https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/604327/2016_Provisional_emissions_statistics_one_page_summary.pdf – 2016 emissions Done it all but cutting power and waste sectors… And de-industrialising -Power emissions now less than transport or industry….https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/provisional-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics- 2017 provisional ghg emission figures – residential, public and transport emissions went up in 2016 – energy, industry and business down – 2016 0.4 degrees warmer than long term average Car sales cooling this year 6.10UK car sales rise to September record – but growth slowed significantly – new orders rose 1.6% but was 8.6% this time last year – sales to private motorists down but fleet sales up – Sept is new reg plate – car finance deals driving sales but fall in private sales indicates market cooling –
- Clean Growth PlanNeed to cut10 mtCO2e (2 -3%) every year 2015 – 2030to meet 57% reduction target
- Generation stable 2015 – 2016; self produced elec has risen 50x but still only 1.3% of domstic consumption; increased auto generation in industry, more than 10%;
- Urgency - & question – can we replace all with renewable?
- Clean Power Plan – gov says firmly committed but wants business to stay competitive – autumn budget – not sure if will stay in ETS
- http://www.renewableuk.com/page/NIRIG
- CCS was killed off in 2015 – still no gov funding clear; pic of Hinkley