Oil prices have been falling
because supplies are up and demand is down. New sources of oil — including in the US and in Canada — have added significantly to the global supply. And with a sputtering European economy and ‘cleaner alternatives’ becoming more price- competitive, demand for oil has fallen well below expectations. Reduced Asian demand because of slow economic growth, currency depreciation and decreased energy subsidies. Global Demand & Supply:
Exploding US oil production has
transformed one of the world’s leading oil consumers into one of its leading producers as well – in fact, North Dakota alone produces a million barrels of oil per day. US production now rivals oil giants Saudi Arabia and Russia, largely thanks to innovative drilling that has unlocked oil and natural gas deposits trapped in shale rock. The same case remains with China. China and USA increasingly moving towards domestic supplies:
As a leading producer, pumping
nearly 10 million barrels of oil a day, Saudi Arabia has outsize influence in the oil markets. And so far, the crude powerhouse has indicated it’s willing to ride out lower prices so as to avoid losing customers to US producers or other competitors. Saudi wants to maintain market share and OPEC dominance:
China's oil consumption isn't growing
as fast as expected. U.S. vehicle fuel efficiency requirements, set by the Obama administration in 2009, are working. As a result, motor fuel consumption is mostly flat. European economies, meanwhile, are weak. Combined with the weak euro means Europeans are less inclined to use energy and a strong U.S. dollar means that other countries won't feel the full benefit of lower oil prices. World consumption is anemic:
Commodity prices are usually inversely
correlated to the dollar. The DXY, a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, has been up since the beginning of the year. The oft-cited rationale is that a stronger currency makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive to buyers using other currencies. Oil’s plunge started not long after the dollar rally began to accelerate. Another point to be noted is tapering has also lead to reduced liquidity. Strong Dollar:
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