Is mp qqe-consumption_tax_2014_12_08

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MP曲線
（日銀の金融政策を表す）
IS曲線
(日本経済の動きを表す）
ゼロ下限制約伝統的金融政策：
GDP
予
想
実
質
金
利
図１：IS-MPモデルと伝統的・非伝統的金融政策
非伝統的金融政策：
政策金利がほぼゼロになるという
「ゼロ下限制約」に抵触し、非伝統
的金融政策が必要な領域
政策金利の操作を通じた伝
統的金融政策が可能な領域

図２：なぜ現在の日本で伝統的金融政策は無効か？
MP曲線
（日銀の金融政策）
IS曲線1
(かつての日本経済）
GDP
失われた20年
現在の日本では伝統的
金融政策は無効
予
想
実
質
金
利
金融緩和
(伝統的金融政策)
IS曲線2
（現在の日本経済）
伝統的金融政策による
景気刺激効果（かつての効果）

図３：なぜ異次元緩和（非伝統的金融政策）は機能？
IS曲線2
（現在の日本経済）
MP曲線
（日銀の金融政策）
GDP
予
想
実
質
金
利
異次元緩和１
異次元緩和１(非伝統的金融政策)による景気刺激効果
（アベノミクスではさらに機動的な財政政策を併用）

図４：なぜアベノミクス（2014年4月以前）は機能？
IS曲線2
（現在の日本経済）
MP曲線
（日銀の金融政策）
GDP
予
想
実
質
金
利
財政政策
異次元緩和１
異次元緩和（非伝統的金融政策）と財政政策の組み合わ
せで、2014年４月までは順調な景気回復が実現

図５：なぜ消費増税が経済に大きく悪影響するのか？
MP曲線
（日銀の金融政策）
GDP
予
想
実
質
金
利
矢印（２）：2014年４月消費増税での
景気悪化(より大きな悪影響)
矢印（１）：かつての消費増税
による景気悪化
IS曲線1
(かつての日本経済）
IS曲線2
（現在の日本経済）
消費増税による
景気悪化(1989年4月）
消費増税による
景気悪化(2014年４月）

図６：2014年10月の異次元緩和２は効果があるのか？
MP曲線
（日銀の金融政策）
GDP
予
想
実
質金
利
IS曲線2
（現在の日本経済）
異次元緩和２
消費増税による
景気悪化
異次元緩和２も景気刺激効果はあるが、異次元緩和１に
比較すれば効果はやや小さい

結語
• 以下のように第47回衆議院総選挙後の新
政権に提言したい
1. 今後もデフレ脱却に向けて非伝統的金融政
策と財政政策（消費税延期・減税・給付
金・公共投資）を維持すること
2. また、今後提出される消費増税法案にも景
気条項をつけ、景気回復が思わしくない場
合は再度延期できるように準備をしておく
こと

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Is mp qqe-consumption_tax_2014_12_08

1. MP曲線（日銀の金融政策を表す） IS曲線 (日本経済の動きを表す）ゼロ下限制約伝統的金融政策： GDP 予想実質金利図１：IS-MPモデルと伝統的・非伝統的金融政策非伝統的金融政策：政策金利がほぼゼロになるという「ゼロ下限制約」に抵触し、非伝統的金融政策が必要な領域政策金利の操作を通じた伝統的金融政策が可能な領域

2. 図２：なぜ現在の日本で伝統的金融政策は無効か？ MP曲線（日銀の金融政策） IS曲線1 (かつての日本経済） GDP 失われた20年現在の日本では伝統的金融政策は無効予想実質金利金融緩和 (伝統的金融政策) IS曲線2 （現在の日本経済）伝統的金融政策による景気刺激効果（かつての効果）

3. 図３：なぜ異次元緩和（非伝統的金融政策）は機能？ IS曲線2 （現在の日本経済） MP曲線（日銀の金融政策） GDP 予想実質金利異次元緩和１異次元緩和１(非伝統的金融政策)による景気刺激効果（アベノミクスではさらに機動的な財政政策を併用）

4. 図４：なぜアベノミクス（2014年4月以前）は機能？ IS曲線2 （現在の日本経済） MP曲線（日銀の金融政策） GDP 予想実質金利財政政策異次元緩和１異次元緩和（非伝統的金融政策）と財政政策の組み合わせで、2014年４月までは順調な景気回復が実現

5. 図５：なぜ消費増税が経済に大きく悪影響するのか？ MP曲線（日銀の金融政策） GDP 予想実質金利矢印（２）：2014年４月消費増税での景気悪化(より大きな悪影響) 矢印（１）：かつての消費増税による景気悪化 IS曲線1 (かつての日本経済） IS曲線2 （現在の日本経済）消費増税による景気悪化(1989年4月）消費増税による景気悪化(2014年４月）

6. 図６：2014年10月の異次元緩和２は効果があるのか？ MP曲線（日銀の金融政策） GDP 予想実質金利 IS曲線2 （現在の日本経済）異次元緩和２消費増税による景気悪化異次元緩和２も景気刺激効果はあるが、異次元緩和１に比較すれば効果はやや小さい

7. 結語 • 以下のように第47回衆議院総選挙後の新政権に提言したい 1. 今後もデフレ脱却に向けて非伝統的金融政策と財政政策（消費税延期・減税・給付金・公共投資）を維持すること 2. また、今後提出される消費増税法案にも景気条項をつけ、景気回復が思わしくない場合は再度延期できるように準備をしておくこと