HPI
Market
Data 2014
Executive Summary

HydrocarbonProcessing.com
HPI MARKET DATA 2014 FULL CONTENT
This executive summary is just a snapshot of the
expanded data and analysis available in...
Executive summary
The 2014 outlook for the global hydrocarbon processing
industry (HPI) is upbeat. This development is a r...
executive summary
contributing to higher costs. More importantly, risk also grows,
adding more cost to the project.
In 201...
The future has arrived. No longer are petrochemical players
debating the reality of shale gas in North America, or if dema...
executive summary

80

Forecast

Asia-Pacific regional equivalent
ethylene consumption to reach
76 million metric tons by ...
Index of tables and figures for HPI market data 2014
INVESTMENT AND SPENDING

Table. 1. Worldwide HPI construction project...
executive summary
NATURAL GAS

Fig. 1. Gas supply sources in North America, Europe and China
to 2030.
Fig. 2. Gas consumpt...
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DIS

N BOXCORE DATABASE
VER THE NEW CONSTRUCTIO
CO

Hydrocarbon Processing’s Construction Bo...
HPI
MARKET
DATA 2014

HPI Market Data 2014 Includes
More Than 100 Pages as well
as 41 Tables and 103 Figures.
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Md2014 executive summary-b

  1. 1. HPI Market Data 2014 Executive Summary HydrocarbonProcessing.com
  2. 2. HPI MARKET DATA 2014 FULL CONTENT This executive summary is just a snapshot of the expanded data and analysis available in the full edition of HPI Market Data 2014. THE 2014 EDITION This year, hundreds of detailed tables and figures appear in HPI Market Data 2014. The book contains 100 pages of data, tables, figures and editorial analysis. MORE THAN THREE DECADES OF HPI FORECASTING EXPERIENCE Hydrocarbon Processing has produced an HPI market report for more than 35 years. HPI leaders, executives and decision-makers throughout the world have come to rely upon this analysis and data for valuable strategizing information. HPI Market Data 2014 features detailed forecast breakdowns for capital, maintenance and operating expenditures in the following major industry areas. • Refining • Natural gas/LNG • Petrochemicals • Health, safety and the environment • Maintenance/equipment The information has been compiled by industry experts from data provided by governments and private organizations. The data analyzed is broken down by factors including geographic region, year, and demand and activity level. HIGHLIGHTS • Capital, maintenance and operating spending is broken out by geographical regions • Expanded editorial analysis of worldwide economic, social and political trends driving HPI activity across all sectors • An exploration of the changing markets and demand within the global HPI, with discussion of growing markets investment and spending Construction Investment and spending Total spending Capital spending Maintenance spending Operating spending Refining Present capacity Regional demand China India Middle East Latin America United States Europe Feedstocks Rationalization/m&a activity Biofuels Advanced biofuels Construction activity Spending Catalysts natural gas/LNG Global forecast Unconventional natural gas United States Canada Latin America Europe Middle East and Africa Asia-Pacific Construction activity Gas-to-liquids Spending petrochemicals Beyond 2013 Olefins and polyolefins Refining/petrochemical integration Construction activity Spending Summary Industry definitions health, safety and environment Health and safety developments Environmental spending Environmental trends Government response to environmental issues Outlook maintenance and equipment Maintenance Best practices of 2014 Equipment Process control outlook appendix A guide to chemical products from hydrocarbons HPI schematic
  3. 3. Executive summary The 2014 outlook for the global hydrocarbon processing industry (HPI) is upbeat. This development is a reversal from previous forecasts. What events and factors orchestrated this switch? Many trends and market conditions are converging to support the uplift of the HPI. Economic growth. The world gross domestic product is rising, and growth is estimated to average 3.6%/yr in 2013. This increase is directly related to burgeoning demand for energy, especially electrical power and transportation fuels, which are primarily hydrocarbon-based. Over the long term, crude oil, coal and natural gas will still constitute over 80% of global energy demand. Expanding economics of non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations are driving new energy demand. China and India will be responsible for nearly half of the future increase in energy consumption. Renewable energy is growing in market share, but will still be a minor part of the energy mix. New manufacturing centers. Increased availability of natural gas supplies are redefining energy conditions for several nations. New natural gas reserves are shifting the order for producing nations. Shale gas reserves, once difficult to extract, are now being exploited in many regions and countries. New drilling methods have facilitated the exploration and production of shale formations. In particular, the development of shale gas is coproducing shale oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs), which has radically changed hydrocarbon supply levels. Shale oil is changing the crude oil market. Non-OPEC nations are increasing their crude oil production efforts and are altering the crude oil market. CONSTRUCTION The global HPI is a cyclic business. Demand expands and contracts at varying rates. The challenging task is planning new capacity to come online during the uplift in the demand cycle. The 2008 global economic slowdown pushed back completion of major HPI projects. It also shifted demand centers. Developed (OECD) nations will continue to mature in demand for HPI products. Consequently, existing facilities will be able to meet local demand with some support by imports. Also, construction activity will continue to revamp and update worn and outdated equipment and inefficient process technologies. The developing (non-OECD) nations are the new consumer product demand centers and the locations for HPI construction activity. In particular, China is the dominant economy. Supported by a growing population, this nation will be the largest economy and energy-consuming country in the near term. As shown in Table 1, HPI construction continues in all regions. Many factors influence the location, type and scale of an HPI project. As illustrated in Fig. 1, refining and petrochemical projects exceed gas processing projects on an annual basis. These projects include revamps and retrofits of existing facilities along with grassroots construction. SPENDING The costs for designing and constructing downstream HPI facilities have nearly doubled since 2000, as shown in FIG. 2. The sharp rise reflects cost inflation on a global basis for HPI projects and the higher expense for construction projects in highrisk countries. Sharp increases in steel costs drove this recent surge in construction expenses. Costs for all steel-using projects have been rising. Equipment costs (reactors, heat exchangers, distillation columns, etc.) are now more expensive, thus raising capital costs for HPI facilities on new equipment and replacement units. Likewise, the complexity of HPI projects is increasing and Table 1. Worldwide HPI construction projects by region: June 2009 to June 2013 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jul-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 US 714 716 421 485 476 Canada 212 209 155 168 149 Latin America 530 607 469 480 324 Europe 1,261 1,283 956 920 428 Africa 215 231 179 241 189 Middle East 990 1,057 822 795 767 Asia-Pacific 1,551 1,629 1,277 1,157 1,102 5,473 5,732 4,329 4,246 3,435 Total 2,000 Petrochem/chem Refining Gas processing All others 1,800 Worldwide HPI construction projects Optimism prevails for 2014 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Fig. 1. Breakdown of HPI projects by market sector, June 2009 to June 2013. Hydrocarbon Processing | HPI Market Data 2013 executive summary 3
  4. 4. executive summary contributing to higher costs. More importantly, risk also grows, adding more cost to the project. In 2014, the HPI’s capital, maintenance and operating budgets are expected to exceed $279 billion (B) (TABLES 2 and 3). Capital spending is projected to reach $77 B; maintenance spending should reach $82 B; and operating spending is estimated at $119 B. The HPI continues to be more cost-conscious. Core focus areas for projects include: 1. New grassroots HPI capacity will be constructed in developing nations, or in nations that are hydrocarbon-rich with plans to be net exporters. 2. New demand for transportation fuels and petrochemicalbased products are concentrated in developing nations. 3. Possible environmental and safety rules will hinder investment in HPI facilities, especially in OECD nations. Uncertainty will contribute to the rationalizations and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the HPI. All regions are affected. 4. The uncertainty in future markets and operating rules by governments has delayed, if not canceled, HPI projects. 5. The outlook for future markets is changing. HPI companies are more focused on “time-to-market” projects so that new capacity is online with increasing demand. HPI companies will invest in technologies to support their mission goals, such as improving plant economics, increasing Table 2. 2014 worldwide HPI spending, billion $ US OUS Total Petrochemical 41.3 96 137.3 Refining 25.4 78.8 104.2 11.2 26.8 38 77.9 201.6 279.5 Gas processing/LNG Total Table 3. 2014 worldwide total spending by budget, billion $ US OUS Total 21.7 56 77.7 Maintenance 19.9 62.8 82.7 Operating 36.3 82.8 119.1 Total 77.9 201.6 279.5 Capital 250 energy efficiency, boosting yields of desired products, eliminating unwanted byproducts or wastes, and increasing sustainability. REFINING Over the next 10 years, global demand for oil products will increase; demand will be just below 100 million barrels per day of oil equivalent (MMbdoe). However, this growth will not be evenly distributed. As shown in Fig. 3, the total demand for crude oil (transportation fuels) will increase. However, the demand/ consumption by developed or OECD countries is flattening and even declining. OECD nations include Western European countries, the US and Japan. Lower automobile fuel consumption will reduce oil demand by about 0.5%/yr, thus creating a refining overcapacity environment in some nations. The situation is completely different in developing or non-OECD countries. Due to growing economies for these nations, the GDP is rapidly increasing. For these non-OECD countries, demand for oil products will rise at the rate of 2%/yr, as shown in Fig. 3. China, India, Brazil, and Russia are the nations driving new demand for refined products. Expanding economies and populations are the momentum driving higher demand and consumption of energy. China and India are the dominant nations responsible for most of the new demand. The US remains the largest market for refined fuels. However, the US fuels market is now mature and has flattened out. The market share of the global refining industry continues to shift. As shown in Fig. 4, since 1995, the market share of refining capacity has shifted from North America and Europe to the AsiaPacific region. Over 650 refineries with a combined processing capacity approaching 93 MMbpd are in operation worldwide. Present-day refineries vary in complexity, size and age. The majority of the present distillation capacity uses traditional crude oil feedstocks. However, looking forward, more refining capacity will be designed or revamped to process unconventional feeds such as lowAPI-gravity crudes, bitumen and shale oils. Margins are sustained by unique combinations of complexity and capacity. Transportation fuel demand is driving new refining capacity and associated capital investments (Tables 2 and 3). Despite fuel subsidies affecting refining investments in certain countries, Asia has successfully attracted investors from other regions. Many crude oil producers outside Asia view investing in new Asian grassroots refineries as a secured crude oil offtake. This trend has been observed in several major refinery investments in China, Vietnam 70 66 60 Liquid fuels demand, MMbpd Index, 2000=100 200 150 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: IHS CERA Fig. 2. Downstream capital costs index, 2000–2012. 4 HPI Market Data 2013 executive summary | HydrocarbonProcessing.com 46 41 50 40 OECD 47 30 20 10 0 2000 50 2000 Non-OECD 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Howard Gruenspecht, CNA Panel, May 8, 2013 Fig. 3. Demand for liquid fuels by OECD and non-OECD nations, 2000 to 2040. 2040
  5. 5. The future has arrived. No longer are petrochemical players debating the reality of shale gas in North America, or if demand will hold up from unconventional sources such as China and India (Fig. 6). 100 80 60 40 20 0 1965 1975 1980 1985 1990 Middle East Europe and Eurasia Asia-Pacific Africa 1995 2000 2005 2010 Latin America North America Sources: BP Statistical Yearbook; A.T. Kearney analysis Fig. 4. Refining capacity by percent region, 1965–2010. 120 North America 120 EU 120 100 100 100 80 80 80 60 60 60 40 40 40 20 20 20 0 0 China Net pipeline imports Net LNG imports Shale gas production Other domestic production 0 -20 1990 2010 -20 2030 1990 2010 -20 2030 1990 2010 2030 Fig. 5. Gas supply sources in North America, Europe and China to 2030. Hydrocarbon Processing | HPI Market Data 2014 executive summary 5 Executive summary The natural gas market is dominated by upstream development in shale gas production, particularly in North America, and by midstream and downstream progress in gas-to-liquids (GTL) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) technologies and projects. Shale gas reserves, once difficult to extract, are now being exploited in many regions and countries around the world. This boom in shale gas production has coincided with an expansion of global LNG trade and renewed interest in GTL production, enabling the transport, storage and processing of both conventional and unconventional natural gas independently from pipelines. Globally, gas output is projected to increase by 2%/yr through 2030. Of this growth, 73% is forecast to come from non-OECD countries. The OECD areas of North America and Australia will also show strong growth, more than offsetting decreases in European output. Gas is projected to contribute 21% of energy demand growth in the power sector and 16% in the transport sector. By 2030, gas will be neck-and-neck with biofuels in the transport sector as the fastest-growing alternative fuel. Over the next two decades, North America is likely to become self-sufficient in energy, and the US is anticipated to become a net exporter of LNG within the next few years. However, slow economic growth and continuing interest in renewable energies will act as a drag on European gas demand. Meanwhile, the development of new gas resources in the ME, West Africa and Asia-Pacific will support demand in those regions. China will grow more import-dependent as its overall energy needs grow. Fig. 5 shows sources of gas supply through 2030 in North America, the EU and China. The combination of a significant reduction in gas prices over the last several years and an escalation in oil prices has led to a high spread between oil and gas prices. This has drastically improved economics for GTL, and it has made GTL the most promising alternative for adding value to natural gas assets in North Petrochemicals Refining capacity by region, % natural gas/lng America. In the US, there is increased interest in mobile processing technologies, especially for GTL and LNG production. Globally speaking, LNG output is set to expand through 2030, making up more than 15% of global gas consumption in that year. Africa is projected to outpace the ME to become the world’s largest net LNG exporter, while Australia will overtake Qatar as the world’s largest single LNG-exporting country as new projects come onstream. Also, the rapid increase in gas production from shale formations, along with rising prices for natural gas liquids (NGLs), are encouraging the construction of additional gas processing facilities in the US. In particular, rising propane and ethane supplies have posed infrastructure and market challenges to move these new supplies to domestic and export markets. Spending on gas processing projects is forecast to remain high through 2017, peaking in 2015. Capital investment is ongoing to construct gas processing capacity as well as new capacity for LNG imports and exports and capacity for NGLs. Investments reflect ongoing efforts to retrofit existing plants to meet growing demand for energy and natural gas products, to improve processing flexibility, and to comply with environmental and safety regulations. Gas supply, Bcfd and Indonesia, where the potential investors are crude producers from the Middle East (ME), Russia and Venezuela. In planning for the future, Asian refiners are configuring refineries to have the flexibility to process heavy crudes. Such crudes are being consumed at the source by new refining projects in the ME and Latin America, leaving less oil available for Asia. There is a mismatch between the expectation and the reality with respect to heavy crudes availability. Interestingly, light crudes are expected to be in global surplus largely due to the tight oil revolution in the US. New shale oil is transforming the energy industry in North America. This has narrowed the light-heavy differential, which could impact the return on investment for many upgrading projects. This renaissance in US refining will have a profound effect on the European refining industry. Unfortunately, Europe has lower refinery utilization rates; even worse, this region can expect another round of capacity rationalization. However, this does not necessarily translate into opportunities for Asia. The new investments in the ME and Former Soviet Union (FSU) will better serve the European markets due to their proximity and competitiveness. From 2012 to 2018, the ME will see eight new grassroots refineries come onstream with 2.2 MMbpd of total capacity. The region will have an incremental demand growth of just 1.5 MMbpd. Clearly, the ME is positioning itself as an export refining center. Similarly, the FSU region is also embarking on residue upgrading investments to make its refineries more competitive.
  6. 6. executive summary 80 Forecast Asia-Pacific regional equivalent ethylene consumption to reach 76 million metric tons by 2017. 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 90 92 94 96 98 North America Others 00 02 04 06 08 10 West Europe Middle East 12 14 14 16 Asia South America Source: IHS 14 12 Henry Hub Price 10 Henry Hub natural gas price, constant $/MMBtu Henry Hub Price WTI Ratio 8 6 4 0 2 2000 2005 2010 2015 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2020 WTI crude/gas ratio FIG. 6. Regional ethylene consumption, 1990–2016. Note: Crude/Gas Price Ratio is the WTI Cushing price in $/Bbl divided by the Henry Hub gas price in $/MMBTU. Source: IHS FIG. 7. US gas prices compared with crude, 2000–2020. 6 HPI Market Data 2013 executive summary | HydrocarbonProcessing.com If pipelines are judged to be too risky to the environment, it would seem the next step would be transporting feedstocks by rail. Indeed, many downstream players are buying stakes in key North American rail systems. Some are even creating offloading facilities adjacent to their plants, such as Tesoro in the state of Washington. But the rail industry also comes with controversy. In July 2013, the deadly derailment of a crude-carrying train in Quebec killed 47 people, prompting Canadian officials to launch a review into rail safety. Trucks and barges are options in theory, but they are likely too expensive to work on a larger scale. Thus, for the petrochemical industry to fully capitalize on the shale revolution, further regulatory guidance is needed on the pipeline and rail fronts. Another area where regulatory clarity is needed in the US is on the thorny issue of natural gas exports. Numerous applications to export gas have been submitted, but as of September 2013, only three had been approved. If gas exports occur on a larger scale, that would expose more international players to the US market, thus raising demand and, potentially, prices. That scenario could lead to lower margins for US petrochemical companies in the years ahead, at least relative to the recent boom years. While margins relative to feedstock costs are best in North America, developing countries still possess the advantage of proximity to demand (Fig. 8). Even with cheap feedstock access in North America, post-recession demand is not growing quickly enough to consume the potential supply. As a result, producers must have domestic or export access to locations such as China, India and other developing Asia-Pacific countries, where demand continues to surge. The IEA projects roughly 6% economic growth for the region in 2014, including about 9% for China and India, giving incentive to producers to keep operating rates high. Several expansions are also underway, including Reliance’s massive refinery petcoke gasification project at Jamnagar, India. The project is the largest of its kind in the world. So, what can petrochemical players do to compete globally if they do not have the built-in advantages of proximity, cheap feedstocks or high demand? The preferred strategy seems to be integration between refining and petrochemicals, which can provide synergies and which gives the ability to hedge market risks. There are several potential integration types to consider. The first is process integration, which means innovative designs of downstream petrochemical plants. The second is utility integration, which includes heat, hydrogen, water, steam and electricity. The third and final type of integration is the treatment of fuel gas, such as utilizing the hydrogen and hydrocarbons present in fuel gas as a petrochemical feedstock. By region, the ME is the best positioned to execute those plans based on its newer facilities, according to industry officials. Meanwhile, Western European sites, which are specialized, could struggle the most. Ethylene, million metric tons Regional ethylene consumption, million metric ton While the market mulled over those issues during recent years, it is apparent today that these trends are the new market reality. In 2013 and beyond, the key questions surround what petrochemical players can do to capitalize on those trends. For example, how can North American producers best position themselves logistically to receive maximum quantities of shalederived ethane feedstock? Also, in an increasingly international marketplace, how can producers near China and India use their proximity to demand centers to outweigh cost advantages from US players? And how can producers with none of these geographic advantages, such as those in Europe, stay afloat? In the US, shale technology has evolved rapidly and continues to improve, led by horizontal wells, lower rig cycle times, multiple fracs and multi-well pads. The technology is also scalable and transferable to numerous shale plays. Combine that with the substantial amount of new reserves that are rich in NGLs, and there appears to be a feedstock haven for petrochemicals. In addition, the crack spread for gas continues to widen relative to crude (Fig. 7). That gives midstream producers enough incentive to continue drilling in shale plays. To fully take advantage of the shale wave, however, the US industry awaits key regulatory decisions that will significantly impact the availability of feedstocks. As of September 2013, the Obama administration had yet to make a decision on the massive Keystone XL pipeline proposal from TransCanada—a network that would bring Canadian crudes to the US Gulf refining belt, which is largely integrated with petrochemical plants. Critics allege that the benefits of Keystone XL are outweighed by environmental concerns. 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Developed Countries Developing Countries World 90 92 Source: IHS 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 FIG. 8. Ethylene demand in developed, developing countries, 1990–2020.
  7. 7. Index of tables and figures for HPI market data 2014 INVESTMENT AND SPENDING Table. 1. Worldwide HPI construction projects, 2009–2013 Table 2. Worldwide HPI construction projects by region, June 2009–June 2013 Table 3. Breakdown of 2013 HPI projects by activity and sector Table 4. US: HPI construction projects Table 5. Canada: HPI construction projects Table 6. Latin America: HPI construction projects Table 7. Europe: HPI construction projects Table 8. Africa: HPI construction projects Table 9. Middle East: HPI construction projects Table 10. Asia-Pacific: HPI construction projects Table 11. Brazil: HPI construction projects Table 12. China: HPI construction projects Table 13. 2014 worldwide HPI spending, billion $ Table 14. 2014 worldwide total spending by budget, billion $ Table 15. 2014 worldwide HPI capital spending, billion $ Table 16. 2014 worldwide HPI maintenance spending, billion $ Table 17. 2014 worldwide HPI operating spending, billion $ Table 18. World catalyst demand, million $ Fig. 1. Breakdown of HPI projects by market sector, June 2009–June 2013. Fig. 2. Total projects by product sector, June 2008–June 2013. Fig. 3. Breakdown of 2013 HPI projects by activity level. Fig. 4. US: HPI construction projects. Fig. 5. Canada: HPI construction projects. Fig. 6. Latin America: HPI construction projects. Fig. 7. Europe: HPI construction projects. Fig. 8. Africa: HPI construction projects. Fig. 9. Middle East: HPI construction projects. Fig. 10. Asia-Pacific: HPI construction projects. Fig. 11. Downstream capital costs index, 2000–2012. Fig. 12. Complexity risks for ethylene projects, 1976–2016. Fig. 13. Breakdown of 2014 HPI spending for equipment by category, %. REFINING Hydrocarbon Processing | HPI Market Data 2014 executive summary 7 Executive summary Fig. 1. Demand for liquid fuels by OECD and non-OECD nations, 2000–2040. Fig. 2. Worldwide incremental refined product demand, 2010–2020. Fig. 3. Liquid fuel consumption in the US, China and India, 1990-2040. Fig. 4. Worldwide crude oil demand by OECD vs. non-OECD nations, 2005–2012 Fig. 5. Crude oil demand by EU vs. Former Soviet Union, 2005–2012. Fig. 6. Refining capacity by percent region, 1965–2010. Fig. 7. Distillation capacity by region in MMbpd, 2005–2012. Fig. 8. Oil demand growth by region, 2012–2018. Fig. 9. Cars in use per 1,000 people by nation, 1960–2020. Fig. 10. Total vehicle population by nation, 1960–2020. Fig. 11. 2018 global crude oil balance-supply vs. ideal demand. Fig. 12. New heavy oil upgrading capacity by region, 2012–2018. Fig. 13. Estimated 2012 net cash margins for the regional top-quartile refineries. Fig. 14. Total energy consumption in China by type, 2009. Fig. 15. Distribution of China’s major refineries (capacity exceeding 10 MMtpy). Fig. 16. Investments in refining capacity in Asia-Pacific, 2013–2018. Fig. 17. India’s opportunity for crude oil exploration. Fig. 18. Demand and supply balance for the Indian refining industry, 2012–2017. Fig. 19. Location and capacity of India’s refineries. Fig. 20. Growth rate for India’s refining industry, 2003–2017. Fig. 21. Investments in heavy oil grading capabilities, 2013–2018. Fig. 22 Indian product demand, 2012–2022. Fig. 23. India’s refining and petrochemical industries feature very deep integration to maximize the value of feedstocks and end products; waste-free facilities is the goal. Fig. 24. HPI facilities in Saudi Arabia, including refineries, petrochemical complexes, and ports and terminals. Fig. 25. New capacity additions for Middle Eastern refineries and product balance, 2012–2018. Fig. 26. HPI spending budget for Brazil, 2010–2015. Fig. 27. Major planned expansion of Brazilian refining capacity, 2011–2017. Fig. 28. US refining capacity by PADD as of January 2012. Fig. 29. US gasoline demand and prices, 2000–2012. Fig. 30. Light-duty vehicle efficiencies, 2010–2030. Fig. 31. US distillate demand, 2010–2025. Fig. 32. US gasoline supply trends, including ethanol usage, 2005–2012. Fig. 33. US shale oil production, 2009–2020. Fig. 34. Breakdown of refineries in Europe. Fig. 35. Crude oil qualities for selected oils, sulfur content, API density. Fig. 36. Global refinery additions by region, 2010–2015. Fig. 37. Refinery utilization rates by region, 2002–2012. Fig. 38. Biofuel demand on a regional basis, 2010–2050. Fig. 39. US renewable fuel standard volumes, 2009–2022. Fig. 40. Production of renewable fuels, 2010–2020. Fig. 41. Regional biodiesel demand, 2011–2020. Table 1. Crude oil demand by region, 2005–2012, MMbpd Table 2. Distillation capacity by region, 2005–2012, MMbpd Table 3. Global and regional demand outlook, 2010–2020 Table 4. Distillation throughput capacity by region, 2005–2012, MMbpd Table 5. World’s largest refineries, over 400,000-bpd capacity Table 6. Chinese refineries with capacities exceeding 10 MMtpy Table 7. Major proposed new refinery projects and upgrades in China Table 8. Refineries operating in India Table 9. Projected Indian refining capacity during the 12th Five Year Plan, 2012–2017 Table 10. New refining projects in Saudi Arabia Table 11. HPI facilities in Saudi Arabia Table. 12. Additional Middle Eastern projects Table 13. Refineries for sale or idle Table 14. Commercialization status of main biofuel technologies Table 15. Refining projects, 2009–2013 Table 16. Estimated 2014 refining spending budgets
  8. 8. executive summary NATURAL GAS Fig. 1. Gas supply sources in North America, Europe and China to 2030. Fig. 2. Gas consumption per capita worldwide, 2012. Fig. 3. Projected growth in global LNG exports through 2030. Fig. 4. Pipeline gas and LNG trade flows, 2012. Fig. 5. EIA-assessed shale gas and oil basins around the world, May 2013. Fig. 6. Distribution of unconventional gas resources in North America, 2012. Fig. 7. Distribution of unconventional gas resources in Europe, 2012. Fig. 8. Short-term outlook for US natural gas consumption. Fig. 9. Short-term outlook for US natural gas production and imports. Fig. 10. Projected US gas output by source, 1990–2040. Fig. 11. US historical and projected LNG import volumes. Fig. 12. Locations of proposed US LNG export terminals, 2013. Fig. 13. Distribution of unconventional gas resources in China, 2012. Fig. 14. Australian gas reserves and planned/proposed LNG projects. Fig. 15. Digital rendering of Shell’s Prelude FLNG platform. Photo courtesy of Shell. Fig. 16. LNG import terminals under construction as of 2013. Fig. 17. LNG export terminals under construction as of 2013. Fig. 18. The GTL process. Table. 1. Top 10 countries with proven natural gas reserves Table 2. Top 10 countries with technically recoverable shale gas reserves Table 3. Total worldwide gas processing projects Table 4. Commercial-scale GTL projects in operation around the world Table 5. Estimated 2014 gas processing spending PETROCHEMICALS Fig. 1. Regional ethylene consumption, 1990–2016. Fig. 2. US gas prices compared with crude, 2000–2020. Fig. 3. Ethylene demand in developed, developing countries, 2000–2017. Fig. 4. Expected GDP growth in Asia-Pacific, 2012–2020. Fig. 5. On-purpose propylene projects, 2000–2016. Fig. 6. China’s refining and ethylene production facilities. Fig. 7. Middle East capacity additions, 2007–2017. Fig. 8. Western Europe ethylene market outlook, 2007–2017. 8 HPI Market Data 2013 executive summary | HydrocarbonProcessing.com Fig. 9. Expected GDP growth around the world, 2012–2020. Fig. 10. LPG consumption as a chemical feedstock, 2006–2016. Fig. 11. US exports of LPG by destination, 2003–2012. Fig. 12. Margin outlook for US ethylene, 2005–2015. Fig. 13. Ethane cracking value compared with naphtha, 2000–2017. Fig. 14. Ethylene demand by end use, 2000–2017. Fig. 15. An integrated refinery/petrochemical complex. Fig. 16. Block diagram of an ethane-based olefins unit. Fig. 17. Block diagram of a naphtha-based olefins unit integrated with a refinery. Fig. 18. Petrochemical value chain. Fig. 19. Chinese growth in coal-based feedstock projects, 2007–2017. Fig. 20. Reduced co-product volumes when cracking ethane. Table 1. Total worldwide petrochemical/chemical construction projects Table 2. Estimated 2014 petrochemical/chemical spending HEALTH, SAFTEY AND ENVIRONMENT Fig. 1. The operational excellence triangle can help improve performance in critical areas. Fig. 2. Consequence of failure calculation. Fig. 3. US environmental expenditures since 1990 by sector. Fig. 4. Spending on the environment per business sector, 1990–2011. Fig. 5. 2011 environmental expenditures by medium. Fig. 6. Primary CO2 emission sources within refineries. Table 1. Major items of HPI spending for environmental control MAINTENANCE AND EQUIPMENT Table 1. Pumps used in HPI processes Table 2. World demand for pumps 2006–2021, million $ Table 3. European pump sales, million $ Table 4. Compressor types and applications Table 5. Common valve types Fig. 1. Composition of new capital investment by asset type. Fig. 2. Causes of large losses by percent. Fig. 3. Equipment involved in HPI losses by percent. Fig. 4. Sales breakdown of total compressors in oil and gas application in North America during 2011. Fig. 5. Market overview of compressors in North America, 2011. Fig. 6. End-user industry share of market, 2012 vs. 2013 (projected).
  9. 9. www.ConstructionBoxscore.com DIS N BOXCORE DATABASE VER THE NEW CONSTRUCTIO CO Hydrocarbon Processing’s Construction Boxscore Database has been redesigned and now includes additional information: • Details for thousands of active, global construction projects in the refining, petrochemical, gas processing and LNG industries • Streamlined Quick Search Functionality that filters projects by region, project type, time and company • Contact information for key personnel • The Boxscore Update e-newsletter sent weekly with new projects and updates • New: Customized Reports Sign-up for a FREE DEMO at ConstructionBoxscore.com or call +1 (713) 525-4626. Logon to www.ConstructionBoxscore.com and discover how the HPI’s most trusted source of construction data just became even more powerful! For more information, contact Lee Nichols, Data Director, at +1 (713) 525-4626 Welcome to the NEW Construction Boxscore Database
  10. 10. HPI MARKET DATA 2014 HPI Market Data 2014 Includes More Than 100 Pages as well as 41 Tables and 103 Figures. Order Your Copy Today! HPI Market Data is the hydrocarbon processing industry’s most trusted forecast of capital, maintenance and operating expenditures for the petrochemical, refining and natural gas/LNG industries. Produced annually by the editors of Hydrocarbon Processing and featuring data provided by governments and private organizations, this comprehensive resource gives critical insight into HPI market trends, spending and activity. Obtain HPI Market Data 2014 to: Order Your Copy Today! GulfPub.com/2014HPI • Plan strategically for 2014 and beyond • Locate new global growth opportunities • Discover how spending trends by sector will impact your company over the short and long terms Sales Offices—Europe FRANCE, Greece, North Africa, Middle East, SPAIN, PORTUGAL, SOUTHERN BELGIUM, LUXEMBOURG, SWITZERLAND, Germany, Austria, Turkey Bret Ronk, Publisher Phone: +1 (713) 529-4301 Fax: +1 (713) 520-4433 E-mail: Bret.Ronk@GulfPub.com www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com Sales Offices—North America IL, LA, MO, OK, TX Josh Mayer Phone: +1 (972) 816-6745, Fax: +1 (972) 767-4442 E-mail: Josh.Mayer@GulfPub.com AK, AL, AR, AZ, CA, CO, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, MI, MN, MS, MT, ND, NE, NM, NV, OR, SD, TN, TX, UT, WA, WI, WY, Western Canada Bret Ronk Phone: +1 (713) 529-4301 Fax: +1 (713) 520-4433 E-mail: Bret.Ronk@GulfPub.com CT, DC, DE, MA, MD, ME, NC, NH, NJ, NY, OH, PA, RI, SC, VA, VT, Wv, Eastern Canada Merrie Lynch Phone: +1 (617) 357-8190, Fax: +1 (617) 357-8194 Mobile: +1 (617) 594-4943 E-mail: Merrie.Lynch@GulfPub.com Classified Sales Gerry Mayer Phone: +1 (972) 816-3534, Fax: +1 (972) 767-4442 E-mail: Gerry.Mayer@GulfPub.com Data Products Lee Nichols Phone: +1 (713) 525-4626, Fax: +1 (713) 520-4433 E-mail: Lee.Nichols@GulfPub.com Catherine Watkins Tél.: +33 (0)1 30 47 92 51 Fax: +33 (0)1 30 47 92 40 E-mail: Watkins@GulfPub.com ITALY, Eastern Europe Fabio Potestá Mediapoint & Communications SRL Phone: +39 (010) 570-4948 Fax: +39 (010) 553-0088 E-mail: Fabio.Potesta@GulfPub.com RUSSIA/FSU Lilia Fedotova Anik International & Co. Ltd. Phone: +7 (495) 628-10-333 E-mail: Lilia.Fedotova@GulfPub.com UNITED KINGDOM/SCANDINAVIA, Northern Belgium, The netherlands Michael Brown Phone: +44 161 440 0854 Mobile: +44 79866 34646 E-mail: Michael.Brown@GulfPub.com Sales Offices—Other Areas AUSTRALIA—Perth Brian Arnold Phone: +61 (8) 9332-9839 Fax: +61 (8) 9313-6442 E-mail: Australia@GulfPub.com China—Hong Kong Iris Yuen Phone: +86 13802701367, (China) Phone: +852 69185500, (Hong Kong) E-mail: Iris.Yuen@GulfPub.com BRAZIL—São Paulo Alfred Bilyk Phone/Fax: 11 23 37 42 40 Mobile: 11 85 86 52 59 E-mail: Brazil@GulfPub.com India Manav Kanwar Phone: +91-22-2837 7070/71/72 Fax: +91-22-2822 2803 Mobile: +91-98673 67374 E-mail: India@GulfPub.com INDONESIA, MALAYSIA, SINGAPORE, THAILAND Peggy Thay Publicitas Singapore Pte Ltd Phone: +65 6836-2272 Fax: +65 6634-5231 E-mail: Singapore@GulfPub.com JAPAN—Tokyo Yoshinori Ikeda Pacific Business Inc. Phone: +81 (3) 3661-6138 Fax: +81 (3) 3661-6139 E-mail: Japan@GulfPub.com korea Young-Seoh Chinn Jes Media, Inc. Phone: +82 (2) 481-3411/3 Fax: +82 (2) 481-3414 E-mail: Korea@GulfPub.com PAKISTAN—Karachi S. E. Ahmed Intermedia Communications Phone: +92 (21) 663-4795 Fax: +92 (21) 663-4795 Reprints Rhonda Brown, Foster Printing Service Phone: +1 (866) 879-9144 ext. 194 E-mail: RhondaB@FosterPrinting.com

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