Optimizing LTE Infrastructure Upgrades & Capex

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Presented at the Broadband Traffic Management Congress in London on November 16th, 2010.

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Optimizing LTE Infrastructure Upgrades & Capex

  1. 1. Optimizing LTE infrastructure upgrades and CapexBroadband Traffic Management Congress, 16. Nov 2010<br />Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Network EconomicsDirk Schöneboom, Network EconomicsTechnology, T-Mobile.<br />
  2. 2. 20/01/2011<br />2<br />Overview<br /><ul><li>Optimizing LTE infrastructure upgrades and Capex: </li></ul>For how long does an effective Traffic Management Architecture allow an operator to defer investing in more capacity?<br /><ul><li>Sweating network assets and using customer data to optimize network planning
  3. 3. Controlling costs of network expansion without compromising customer experience
  4. 4. Modelling future terminal penetration and projecting traffic migration to LTE
  5. 5. Understand why LTE is no short-term saviour for operators addressing the capacity crunch
  6. 6. Traffic migration in spectrum limited operations
  7. 7. Summary</li></li></ul><li>20/01/2011<br />3<br />Starting point<br />Mobile Data traffic evolution<br />Bandwidth<br />Traffic Management<br />time<br />today<br />tomorrow<br /><ul><li>Definition of Traffic/Bandwidth Management: </li></ul>is the process of measuring and controlling the traffic on a network link, in order to avoid overfilling the link, which would result in network congestion and poor performance(source: Wikipedia)<br />
  8. 8. 20/01/2011<br />4<br />Cost<br />(incremental)<br />3G<br />LTE<br />Sweating existing network assets<br />Typical upgrade steps for today’s RAN:<br /><ul><li>SW upgrade
  9. 9. Additional carrier
  10. 10. Sectorization (6-sector site)
  11. 11. Additional Site</li></ul> Today's 3G networks can carry considerably more traffic with only incremental additional costs<br />RAN Capex per upgrade option<br />3G<br />LTE<br />Capex<br />SW upgrade extra carrier 6-sector site<br />new site new site<br />(co-loc)<br />
  12. 12. 20/01/2011<br />5<br />Using customer data to optimize network planning<br />Typical user behaviour in today’s 3G network:<br /> Understanding where and how these “heavy users” use network resources is a prerequisite for proper network planning. Network upgrades do not make sense for a small number of heavy users<br />Ø Data usage by terminal type<br />Traffic demand concentration<br /><ul><li>50% of users account for > 95% of total data traffic
  13. 13. 10% of users account for > 70% of the data traffic
  14. 14. 1% of users account for > 25% of the data traffic
  15. 15. 0.1% of users account for > 10% of the total data traffic</li></ul>Unit usage<br />Datacard<br />Other Smartphones<br />iPhone<br />Non-Smartphones<br />
  16. 16. 20/01/2011<br />6<br />Network TCO<br />Δ costs<br />3G data traffic<br />today<br />tomorrow<br />Controlling costs of network expansion<br />Typical traffic distribution in today’s 3G RAN:<br />Data traffic is very concentrated<br /><ul><li>Only a small part of the network is actually facing capacity issues
  17. 17. The majority of the network can easily accommodate the increase in data traffic</li></ul> Despite the strong growth in data traffic demand, network costs increase only incremental<br />Traffic distribution over sites<br />traffic<br />Capacity limit (today)<br />Tomorrow<br />Today<br />% of sites<br />
  18. 18. 20/01/2011<br />7<br />Cell BH throughput / user<br />Traffic Management<br />Throughput / user<br />3G<br />acceptable limit<br />today<br />future<br />Controlling costs of network expansion without compromising user experience<br />Don’t panic if throughput per user goes down…<br />….because this can be alleviated by traffic management measures<br /> By introducing traffic management measures necessary RAN upgrades can be shifted in time, or even prevented altogether<br />Cell BH throughput / user<br />LTE<br />Throughput / user<br />3G<br />acceptable limit<br />Action: RAN capacity upgrade<br />today<br />future<br />
  19. 19. 20/01/2011<br />8<br />Modelling future terminal penetration<br /><ul><li>Assumptions:
  20. 20. Result of terminal penetration modelling:
  21. 21. In 2015 > 50% of the Datacard customers have LTE-enabled terminals
  22. 22. In 2018 > 50% of the Smartphone customers have LTE-enabled terminals</li></ul>LTE terminal penetration<br />100 %<br />Datacards<br />50 %<br />Smartphones<br />
  23. 23. 20/01/2011<br />9<br />3G traffic peak (3G Network)<br />Projecting traffic migration to LTE<br /><ul><li>Traffic migration from 3G to LTE:
  24. 24. When “peak 3G” will be reached, depends on
  25. 25. LTE terminal penetration, LTE rollout, LTE frequency deployment band etc</li></ul> It will take several years after LTE launch until 3G traffic stops growing<br />Traffic per terminal technology<br />Traffic per network<br />TB/month<br />TB/month<br />LTE<br />LTE<br />3G traffic peak (3G terminals)<br />3G<br />3G<br />
  26. 26. 20/01/2011<br />10<br />TB/month<br />LTE<br />Traffic Management Measures<br />3G<br />time<br />today<br />Optimizing Capex spending during migration to LTE<br /><ul><li>Traffic per network:
  27. 27. Once we know “peak 3G”, we know when no more capacity upgrades are necessary for 3G
  28. 28. From Capex perspective it would be best if 3G traffic demand would be stable over a longer period</li></ul> Use traffic Management measures to “flatten out” the peak demand of 3G in order to minimize 3G Capex during traffic migration to LTE<br />TB/month<br />LTE<br />3G<br />time<br />today<br />
  29. 29. 20/01/2011<br />11<br />Migration in Spectrum limited operations<br /><ul><li>How does the traffic FC translate into spectrum demand?
  30. 30. In which spectrum bands LTE can be deployed depends
  31. 31. Spectrum demand of legacy technologies
  32. 32. Licence duration of existing spectrum assets
  33. 33. Availability of new spectrum</li></ul>Future Spectrum demand<br />(LTE)<br />Future Spectrum demand<br />(Legacy technologies)<br />MHz<br />2600 MHz<br />2100 MHz<br />1800 MHz<br />900 MHz<br />2010 2012 2014 2016 2018<br />2010 2012 2014 2016 2018<br />
  34. 34. 20/01/2011<br />12<br />Summary<br />Cost<br />(incremental)<br />Cost/MB1<br />(total)<br />3G<br />LTE<br />LTE<br />Traffic<br />3G<br />time<br />today<br /><ul><li>Short-term investment in 3G is the most efficient way for network capacity upgrades
  35. 35. 3G provides lowest incremental costs
  36. 36. LTE is most cost efficient in long-term
  37. 37. LTE is no short term saviour for operators addressing the capacity crunch
  38. 38. 3G traffic growth will reverse only several years after LTE launch
  39. 39. Utilize traffic management measures to flatten out the peak demand of 3G
  40. 40. Optimize Capex spend during traffic migration
  41. 41. Full utilization of existing 3G assets</li></ul>1 Note: Ultimately the absolute cost matters not the relative cost.<br />
  42. 42. Thank You!<br />

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