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Geog 102 case study 3

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Geog 102 case study 3

  1. 1. GEOG 102 – Population, Resources, and the Environment Professor: Dr. Jean-Paul RodrigueCase Study 3 – China’s One Child Policy1 – Chinese Demographics2 – Population Planning in China
  2. 2. 1 Chinese Demographics ■ Demographics... • More people than the combined population of Europe, the Americas and Japan. • Any change has global ramifications. • The demography of China is a powerful trend (1.29 billion). • About 14-17 million people are added each year in 1980s. • Average of 13 million people per year in the 1990s. • 10 million people per year in the 2000s. • 400 million Chinese live in towns and cities (30-35%). • 64% of the population lives in rural areas (950 millions). • 343 million females are in their reproductive age.
  3. 3. 1 The Population of China, 0-2050 1600 2050 1400 2000 1200 1995 1000 1981 1970 800 600 1953 1949 1851 400 1911 18121887 200 2 1210 1753 105 755 1381 1562 1650 0 1083 0 500 1000 1500 2000
  4. 4. 1 Chinese Population, 1949-2000 (in millions) (projections to 2050) 1500 1300 1100 900 700 500 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
  5. 5. 1 Population of Selected Chinese Provinces, 1998 France United Kingdom Italy Egypt Hunan Hebei Iran Philippines Jiangsu Germany Shandong Henan Mexico Nigeria Sichuan . 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
  6. 6. 1 Chinese Demographics ■ The problems of controlling it... • The population exploded after 1949. • Population control was secondary. • Mao Zedong saw numbers as a workforce and a way to fight the Soviet Union and the United States. • Calls for women to “breed for the motherland”. ■ Population distribution • Excessive concentration. • 50% of the population lives on 8.2% of the land. • Bulk of the population along the coast. • East China accounts for 90% of the population. • 56%, about 728 million, are living in mountainous areas. • High density rural areas.
  7. 7. 1 Street Scene, Shanghai
  8. 8. 1 Chinese Demographics ■ The 1990 Census • Counted 1.134 billion Chinese in the PRC. • Believed to be the most accurate ever taken in China. • A greater than anticipated increase in population due in large part to the undercounts of earlier censuses. • Population was urbanizing. • The percentage of urban population had increased from 20.6% in 1982 to 26.2% by 1990. • An increase of 5.6% in just eight years. • Reflected job growth in the cities • Development of the private sector. • Government’s departure from socialist methods of production in the secondary sector.
  9. 9. 1 Chinese Demographics • Increasing ethnic diversity. • The government had not enforced the One Child Policy among the country’s 55 recognized minority groups. • They had increased their share of still predominantly Han population to 8% from 6.7% in 1982. • Distribution remained heavily concentrated in the eastern regions. ■ Current issues • Population growth undermines Chinese development (education, health, transportation). • Acceleration of urbanization at the expense of arable land (loss of 10% since 1978). • About 10 million persons reach the employment market each year.
  10. 10. 1 Chinese Demographics ■ Urbanization concern • Occurred at the expense of highly productive agricultural areas. • During the 1990s, China lost 1% of its farm land due to urbanization and industrial development. • Only about 10% of the Chinese territory can be used for agricultural purposes. • The area used for grain production has declined from 120 million hectares in 1978 to 110 million hectares in 1995.
  11. 11. 1 Acres of Arable Land per Person 1.66 US 2.05 Nigeria 0.67 0.96 0.22 Indonesia 0.3 India 0.59 0.42 Germany 0.35 0.37 0.82 Brazil 0.79 1994-1996 0.2 China 0.25 1979-1981 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
  12. 12. 1 Chinese Demographics ■ Agricultural problems • Traditional land structures have reach optimal capacity. • Output cannot be increased without the usage of modern techniques such as machinery and fertilizers. • Modern techniques are not available. • The size of exploitations is too small: • Less than 1 hectare per household in coastal areas. • Urbanization, industrialization and transport have decreased agricultural land in the most productive areas. • Speculation around cities towards golf courses and leisure centers at the expanse of agriculture. • About 13-15 million new mouths to feed each year with declining agricultural surfaces. • Production of grain is diverted to livestock (meat) and other production (e.g. beer). • Limited investments in agriculture by the peasant.
  13. 13. 1 Chinese Demographics ■ Improving Chinese agriculture • Considerable room for improvement for the Chinese agricultural productivity. • China has not much applied techniques learned during the “green revolution”. • Consolidation of agricultural plots could increase economies of scale. • Irrigation: • 65% of all the water used for irrigation is lost. • Putting this ratio only to 50% could increase water resources by 40% without taping on new sources. • Approximately 25% of the grain is lost due to improper warehousing and transport infrastructure.
  14. 14. 1 Chinese Demographics ■ Increased agricultural output • Regrouping small exploitations to reach economies of scale. • Investments in irrigation. • Reduction of agricultural labor between 100 to 120 millions. • Rural enterprises to absorb “in situ” the excess labor. • Moving from a labor to a capital intensive agriculture.
  15. 15. 1 Family Planning ■ Early 1970s • Known as the “later-longer-fewer program”. • Authorized age of marriage 25 for men and 23 for women. • Wait later to begin their families, allow for longer spacing in between children, and have fewer children overall. • Began to reduce fertility levels. • Not fast enough to really slow down population growth due to the demographic momentum that had already developed. ■ End of 1970s • Government began to promote the two-child family throughout the country. • Slogan “One is best, at most two, never a third”. • Contributed to fertility decline but, again, not rapidly enough.
  16. 16. 1 Family Planning ■ One Child Policy • Launched in 1981 when the population reached 1 billion. • Initial goal: Stabilize China’s population at 1.2 billion. • Revised goal: Keep China’s population under 1.4 billion until 2010. • Population expected to stabilize around 1.6 billion by 2050. • Under the responsibility of the State Family Planning Commission (SFPC). • Population control perceived from a strategic point of view. • Great variations in performance between the country’s urban and rural areas. • Possible to enforce in China (totalitarian). • Would have been impossible in most other places.
  17. 17. 1 Family Planning ■ Regulations of the policy • Employers and neighborhood committees had to enforce guidelines. • 1) Authorization for marriage: • 25 years for male and 23 years for female. • Students and apprentices not allowed to marry. • 2) Monitoring menstrual cycles. • 3) Contraceptive use mandatory: • UID used for women with already one child. • Incentives for sterilization after the birth of the first child. • Couples with two or more children had to have one partner sterilized (women 80% of the time). • 4) All pregnancies must be authorized: • Authorized pregnancies had to be aborted. • 7th, 8th or 9th month abortions are legal.
  18. 18. 1 Family Planning • Incentives offered to couples with only one child: • Monthly allowances paid to couples with only one child. • Child entitled to free educational and medical services. • Disincentives used to discourage larger families: • Fine up to 15% of annual income. • Couples forced to give up all privileges if a second child was born and had to repay any cash awards it had received. • A third child denied free education, subsidized food, and housing privileges. • A third child’s parents would be penalized with a 10% reduction in wages.
  19. 19. 1 Family Planning ■ Urban areas • Small sized apartments. • Improving one’s status and level of consumption. • Easier control from the government. ■ Rural areas • Families want more children to work the family plots and sustain parents when they get old. • Want sons who will continue the family line and provide ritual sacrifices to their ancestors after they die. • Daughters are leaving their family once they marry. • Girls are accounting for only 20 to 30% of a new demographic class in some areas.
  20. 20. 1 Percentage of Women Having More Than One Child, 1998 ■ Fertility reduction Xinjiang 21.55 • Prevented about 300 million Tibet 26.58 births since 1980. • When the program began Sichuan 4.19 (1970), Crude Birth Rate was 34 Guangdong 12.32 and TFR was around 6. • Been brought down to 10 (CBR) Fujian 3.68 and 1.7 (TFR). • About 40% of Chinese women Jiangsu 2.16 have been sterilized. Shanghai 0 • About 5% of women have more than one child. Beijing 0.19 National 5.1 0 10 20 30
  21. 21. 1 Family Planning ■ Fluctuations of fertility • Fertility has declined substantially before the OCP. • Reached a low in 1984. • Increased from the mid 1980s to the early 1990s. • Relaxation in enforcement in rural areas. • In 1986, 2 children per couple were allowed in rural areas. • In 1995, the restriction was lifted for urban areas. • Reductions in the authority of local officials responsible for implementing the program. • Sizeable age cohort entering their reproductive years. • Baby boom of the early 1960s (about 40% of the increase was due to this). • A decline in the age of marriage explained the other 60%. • Nearly 75% of this increase was offset by declines in the age-specific fertility rates.
  22. 22. TFR 119 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 4919 5219 5519 5819 6119 6419 6719 7019 7319 7619 7919 82 Chinese Fertility Rate, 1949-199819 8519 8819 TFR 9119 9419 97 Natural Increase 0 5 -5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 -10 Natural Increase
  23. 23. 1 Family Planning ■ Imbalanced sex ratio • Male children are more valued. • 120 boys for 100 girls (national average). • Abandon or abortion of females. • “Missing female population” as girls are not declared. • 2000: About 900,000 girls were missing (0 to 4 years group). • Only 1% of females are unmarried by the age of 30. ■ Psychological consequences: • Currently around 70 million single child. • 4-2-1 syndrome (4 grand parents – 2 parents – 1 child): • “Little emperors” or “little empresses”. • Self-centrism. • Pressure to succeed.
  24. 24. 1 Males minus Females, China, 2000 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 -3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000
  25. 25. 1 Family Planning ■ The Population and Family Planning Law • One-child policy was “a policy for one generation”. • Relaxed in the mid 1980s: • 2 children permitted in rural areas. • A new family planning law started in 2002. • Same goal than the One-child policy, but offer more flexibility: • One child, but permission may be granted for a second under specific circumstances. • Late marriage and childbearing. • More flexibility for provinces, autonomous regions and minorities. • People in reproductive age have to use contraception. • Provisions for sex-determination and sex-specific abortions. • Government keeping a close eye on demographics to see if population control required.
  26. 26. 1 Population Pyramid of China, 2000 1 2 Female 80-84 3 5 7 8 Male 12 70-74 13 18 18 21 60-64 20 24 22 31 50-54 29 42 41 42 40-44 40 52 50 64 30-34 61 60 58 48 20-24 42 51 43 63 10-14 58 55 48 51 0-4 43 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 Millions
  27. 27. 1 Population Pyramid of China, 2050 12 25 Female 21 80-84 32 Male 30 40 32 70-74 38 40 42 53 60-64 52 48 44 45 50-54 41 41 38 42 40-44 39 44 42 40 30-34 39 36 35 34 20-24 33 35 34 36 10-14 34 33 32 31 0-4 29 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 Millions
  28. 28. 2 Population Planning in China ■ What would have happened if it was not applied? • Population by 2000 would have reached 1.6 billion (instead of 1.3). • Annual increase would be 40 million (instead of 17-19). • Require much higher level of economic development. ■ The total population will continue to increase • Even if the natural growth rate can be lowered to 1% by 2005. • Annual net increase of population will still be more than 10 million. • Will continue to increase in the next 50 years. • Even with effective family planning, China’s population will not stabilize until it reaches 1.5-1.6 billion by 2050.
  29. 29. 2 Population Planning in China ■ Improve the quality of the population • Education and health. • 2.5 million students entered Universities in 2001. • Tremendous incurred costs. ■ Potential surplus labor in rural areas • A result of the development of the rural economy and the higher rate of birth. • Large numbers of surplus rural labor who will need to transfer from the agricultural to a non-agricultural field. • Speed urbanization of the population and create bigger pressure on cities and towns.
  30. 30. 2 Population Planning in China ■ Aging of the population • Persons 65 years and older represent about 7 percent of the population. • In the 21st century, China’s population will continue this aging trend. • 65 years old or older numbering 250 million by the year 2040. • Providing social security and services to a huge elderly population.

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