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Accurate Fair Value Exacta Board

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After many decades of searching by academia and handicappers alike, for an accurate fair value formula to ascertain what an exacta combination should pay, is over. It is now possible for anyone to instantly ascertain any overlay or underlay opportunity for any race at any parimutuel track, which offers Exactas, with pure accuracy!

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Accurate Fair Value Exacta Board

  1. 1. Accurate Fair Value: The Missing Element that Unlocks the Mystery of the Exacta Combination. What if you knew what an Exacta combination should pay? Not a guess. Not even an academic estimate, but the precise value. What would you do with that information – what does it mean? Does that information even exist? Yes it does, and I’ll explain why this is a huge game changer. For decades the Exacta pool and its various combinations has been shrouded in secrecy, in plain sight. Many regular patrons of the race track consider it a bunch of meaningless numbers, that might hopefully reflect the final payout, but they can’t really depend on it until very close to post time, or only when the gates open. Tracks with low liquidity are haunted by this dilemma, along with the lingering 9999 that doesn’t seem to go away until 5 Mtp or less. Harness racing, with short timeframes till post, experiences this issue quite commonly. So then why aren’t fair value payouts offered to the patrons as a gauge to understand what a combination should pay? Until now, the fans had no idea what the exacta combinations should pay, it’s a blind bet – or perhaps just a smidge better than the information given for the Trifecta and the Quad, where no pool information is given at all. Since the dawn of exotic betting, professionals and scholars have tried to solve the mystery of the true probability of such combinations, but you know what? They have not figured it out yet! However, they knew that if they were able to figure out what the Exacta combination should pay accurately, they would know which horses were really being bet and which were not and which combinations offered real value. They would also see who was wheeled and which were left out, as in partial wheels. Knowledge of the entire field would be better understood easily and immediately, as the information of all betting is revealed and expanded from just the WPS pool. The benefits were and still are infinite. How? Let’s see an example: As we can see, the exacta combo 2,7 is paying $38, but the accurate fair value is $30, you would instantly know that combo is offering an overlay value of over 20% more than it should pay.
  2. 2. How and why does this work? For that we shall rely on an analogy. We have all heard of the story of the father marking his bottle of scotch with a line cleverly hidden on the bottle. Unknowingly to his son, who would sneak a drink with his friends when no one was home, left behind a footprint of how much was drunk. However, as good as some might think the line method is, it isn’t good enough. What if the son inspected the bottle for such a line beforehand and then just added water back to the line? Unless the father is quite the taste testing expert, the theft will most likely go unnoticed. Therefore, something better is needed; in order to deliver the highest level of accuracy every time, no matter what, the father would need a density meter with accuracy of .01% error, which could measure the alcohol content before then after, ensuring accuracy every time. This is the level of accuracy we are referring to when offering an accurate fair value. Getting interesting? Well, it gets a lot better! The Exacta pool takes in as much money, if not more, than the win pool quite commonly for every track, so by revealing the information locked in the Exacta pool, fans can double their knowledge instantly. This will create higher probabilities of cashing and increase the amount one bets. This will also increase bets within the other exotics such as Trifectas and Quads, through a better understanding of which horses are truly threats, something that the Win pool alone has been limited in its usefulness. For the serious handicapper, it finally offers a convenient way to depict what combination is offering value. Many sports fans and newbies are betting less and focusing more on the lottery type wagers as their view of an increasingly difficult sport to understand and cash a bet have become overwhelming. They are convinced that the odds are stacked against them when considering horse racing; with the lack of horse racing knowledge, low win threshold, competing against insiders with rebates, the task of a newbie reading and understanding the form, and of course the infamous constantly debated, arguably high, take-outs. These are all valid arguments for the malaise that the sport of horse racing is experiencing. This viewpoint is what is needed to change in order to bring about true innovation and a rebirth of the sport of kings. But what if we could change all of that and make it easier for anyone to better understand and cash a ticket more often? Lower or eliminate the take altogether on your selection, because of an imbalance between the win and the exacta pool? Also, see real contenders not seen before. What about increasing the chances of actually cashing a Trifecta or Quad ticket, sounds incredible doesn’t? How much easier would it be; if you were able to see an exacta board like the one below, where color codes mark: overlay (red), underlay (green) opportunities and if it is fair value its yellow.
  3. 3. That’s quite an eye opener! But, there is still a vast amount of information to be uncovered. Let’s continue, shall we? Above we have seen what the actual vs a fair value board would look like and the color certainly makes it much easier. We could also see both at the same time, with color, as shown below. Not bad… Getting better, but let me show you one more. With the following board, it displays the ratio; this is nothing more than the actual value divided by the fair value, which gives you a percentage of fair value. For example, if the 2,6 combination has an actual value of $13 and a fair value of $17 (as indicated above), you would have a ratio of .76 in green, indicating it as an underlay and by how much, in this case 76% of fair value. Visually, you can immediately see the whole field and where the underlay/overlay opportunities are hiding. Can you spot all the overlays? Easy right!
  4. 4. Now, I mentioned before; that when you have an accurate calculation of fair value, you can see interesting things, such as a wheel or partial wheel type bets, which is a pretty powerful and expensive bet, mainly done by those with really good information, especially if that type of bet is repeated a few times before post. Let me show you a few examples of wheel type bets, and how valuable the ratio board display really is and how easy it can be used by anyone. In the example below, take a close look at the #2 horse, notice that all the numbers are very close to each other. That is not achieved through randomness. That is a calculated, full wheel type bet, which can only be seen if you have the accurate fair value to compare it to. In this example, the #4 horse has been partially wheeled, as the #6 was left out. Not only is it possible to see partial and full wheels on the front, but also on the backside. In this example, the #5 horse was clearly wheeled on its back or in other words a bet that keys it in the place position.
  5. 5. These can show up at any time before post and it’s even more exciting to watch when it occurs several times on a particular horse, possibly indicating multiple bets by the same knowledgeable person. Much like the analogy of the mark on the bottle, now you can easily understand what is going on. Those are just some examples of how powerful a tool, such as accurate Fair Value is, and we believe everyone should have access to it. What else can an accurate Fair Value exacta board provide, now that you know it exists? 1. Get up to the minute, Accurate Fair Value payouts for every exacta combination, dynamically; 2. Know the expected payouts at 20 MTP, despite low liquidity – no more 9999’s; 3. Insight to what combinations are being bet, and which are not – exposure of all overlays and underlays; 4. Easily compare actual payouts to Fair Value, instantly; 5. Opportunity to see all kinds of bets, so that you can see wheels, partial wheels, heavily bet boxes, even false favorites – you can’t get that from the win pool! 6. Easy integration at any track venue’s jumbo screens, wall mounted TV’s, table-top TV’s or WiFi streaming; 7. Removing the mystery of the exacta board provides actionable information that will create an increase in attendance, increase profits for both the track and the bettor, greater excitement and increased play throughout all types of wagering;  8. Eliminate the availability for insiders and cheaters to hide their bets – All bets are exposed. 9. Payouts based on probabilities derived from a mathematical proof that exceeds anything in the world – means accuracy that can be relied upon. 10. In theory it could also create better efficiency and higher odds on the favorite, when more contenders are revealed – better payoffs for everyone! 11. Interestingly, it can also help to curb the use of illegal performance enhancing drugs, since those who cheat are also quite likely to bet and since they will no longer be able to hide their bet and profit in the shadows, they might think twice of exposing themselves to regulatory scrutiny and revealing their horse as a live contender. We developed the Fair Value board with the idea that it should be easily available and understandable for every racing fan. We believe that the Fair Value Exacta Board will be available at each and every racetrack, as the new standard. This is a remarkable opportunity, which any track can initiate without industry or regulatory red tape. We believe that in order to bring growth back to the racing industry it must start at the racetrack. It’s no longer a question of whether this information could be offered to the racing fans; it is now possible with accuracy and dependability. We welcome anyone to challenge its accuracy, freely, at any request. This, in combination with our Win vs. OddsForecaster odds tracker, showing imbalances, is a huge game changer!
  6. 6. See its accuracy for yourself in real time and learn how easy it is to integrate at your venue with true plug and play technology. More importantly, if want to see a rise in handle and attendance, you must be prepared to give the fans what they have been waiting for! If you are a manager or owner of a race track in the USA or Canada and want to test it out for FREE. Just send me a quick email, stating which track and date, and I will send you a special link, customized for you with no other information needed.

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