ANTIFRAGILE Nassim Nicholas TalebAntifragile things get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, whereas fragile things break and robust ones simply stay the same.
ANTIFRAGILE Nassim Nicholas Taleb Procrustean bed: retrofitting causes Fragilistas: cause fragility by thinking they understand Barbell strategy: safe and speculative extremes Ludic fallacy: mistake experiments with real world Turkeys and inverse turkeys Green lumber fallacy: unnecessary knowledge Extremistan: impact of a single observation Iatrogenics: harm done by the healer Agency problem: manager is not true owner Black swan errors
GREAT BY CHOICE Jim Collins Great companies thrive despite uncertainty, chaos and luck by deploying fanatic discipline,empirical creativity, and productive paranoia.
GREAT BY CHOICE Jim Collins 10Xers companies have beaten their industry by a minimum of ten times over 15 years. Their characteristics are: Fanatic discipline – considered decisions with clear constraints Empirical creativity – as opposed to uncalibrated cannonballs Productive paranoia – being hypervigilant by constantly zooming in and out (detail v. big picture) Do the 20 Mile March Fire bullets, then cannonballs
WILFUL BLINDNESS Margaret Heffernan We become blind to the truthbecause we are hard wired to stickto what we know best, and we then unwittingly use a range of techniques to persuade ourselves it’s okay.
WILFUL BLINDNESS Margaret Heffernan Affinity Love is blind Dangerous convictions Mental limits The ostrich instruction Just following orders Out of sight, out of mind Structured dissonance Cassandra whistleblowers
TELL THE TRUTH Unerman & Salem Baskin In an age of information overload,the most effective way for a brand to stand out is to tell the truth.
TELL THE TRUTH Unerman & Salem BaskinContent: Acknowledge reality Deliver real change to services and company structure Take consumers on the brand truth journey Enlist third-party advocatesContext: Be close Find a Truth Turning Point Use point-of-action media Leverage routine
THE FILTER BUBBLE Eli Pariser You can get stuck in a static, ever-narrowing version of yourself – a filter bubble – if you are unaware of theway in which the internet filters your search information.
THE FILTER BUBBLE Eli Pariser A filter bubble is the unique universe of information for each of us that only we see. It has three main characteristics: – 1. You’re alone in it – 2. It’s invisible – 3. You don’t choose to enter it You can get stuck in a static, ever-narrowing version of yourself – an endless You-loop. We could be giving ourselves a ‘global lobotomy.’ The headline that has everything: “Woman in sumo wrestler suit assaulted her ex- girlfriend in gay pub after she waved at a man dressed as a Snickers bar.”
DIGITAL VERTIGO Andrew Keen Today’s online social revolution isdividing, diminishing and disorienting us - the more electronicallyconnected we become, the lonelier we seem to be.
DIGITAL VERTIGO Andrew Keen Stuck between internet longings for community and powerful desire for online individual freedom. The more electronically connected we become, the lonelier we seem to be. “I update, therefore I am.” For extreme users, their internet profile has become their raison d’etre. Information narcissists uninterested in anything ‘outside ourselves’. Engaged in an Age of Great Exhibitionism. Human implications of Cult of the Social? What happens to privacy when everyone is subject to frictionless sharing in a transparent network?
GROUPED Paul AdamsSmall groups of friends are the key to influence on the social web.
GROUPED Paul Adams Social networks not new, social web here to stay. Sharing is a means to an end – it makes life easier. Our social networks are made up of small independent groups, connected through us. The people closest to us have disproportionate influence over us. When spreading ideas, network structure is more important than characteristics of the individuals. How we behave is learned from observing others. Many decisions made by nonconscious, emotional brain - 200,000 times conscious brain capacity. We’re wired to avoid trying new things - habit bias. People turn to their friends for information
THINKING FAST AND SLOW Daniel KahnemanBe aware that your brain has twosystems – fast intuition and slowerconscious thought – and allow forthese when looking at decisions.
THINKING FAST AND SLOW Daniel Kahneman The mind is divided into two systems: – System 1: makes fast, intuitive decisions based on associative memory, vivid images and emotional reactions. – System 2: slower, conscious, hard thought – more rational but frequently overridden. WYSIATI (What You See Is All There Is): jumping to conclusions based on limited evidence. Affect heuristic: making judgements based on emotions: (How do I feel about?) is a surrogate for a harder question (What do I think about it?). Premortem: just before committing to something important, imagine it’s a year on and it was a disaster - write a short history of what happened.
DRINKING FROM THE FIRE HOSE Frank & MagnoneYou can avoid drowning in data by asking seven simple questions.
DRINKING FROM THE FIRE HOSE Frank & Magnone Spray and Pray is too common Seven questions based on discovery, insight, and delivery: 1. What is the essential business question? 2. Where is your customer’s North Star? 3. Should you believe the squiggly line? 4. What surprised you? 5. What does the lighthouse reveal? 6. Who are your swing voters? 7. The three Ws: What? So what? Now what?
IMAGINE Jonah Lehrer Ideas come from sheerpersistence, but only when we relax, so if you work hard enough on something, and focus on not beingfocused, there will eventually be an unconcealing.
IMAGINE Jonah Lehrer Muses, higher powers and creative ‘types’ are myths Creativity is not a ‘gift’ that only some possess – it’s a catch-all for distinct thought processes that we can all learn to use more effectively. It’s only after we’ve stopped searching for an answer that it arrives. Breakthroughs follow a ‘stumped phase’. Trying to force insights can often prevent them– ideas arrive when the mind is distracted or relaxed. Focus on not being focused. Ideas occur best in ‘third places’ – neither the home nor the office.
INSANELY SIMPLE Ken SegallWork as hard as you can to make everything as simple as it can possibly be.
INSANELY SIMPLE Ken Segall Think brutal Think small: small groups get more done Think minimal: just communicate one thing Think motion: momentum is crucial to projects Think iconic: essence in a conceptual image Think phrasal: use short simple words Think casual: no big company thinking and process Think human: be true to your feelings Think sceptic: expect negative first reactions of Think war: extreme times call for extreme measures
READ THIS BEFORE YOUR NEXT MEETING Al PittampalliReducing the number and length of meetings increases productivity.
READ THIS BEFORE YOUR NEXT MEETING Al Pittampalli Traditional meetings create a culture of compromise and kill our sense of urgency. 1. Meet only to support a decision that has already been made 2. Move fast and end on schedule 3. Limit the number of attendees 4. Reject the unprepared 5. Produce committed action plans 6. Refuse to be informational. Reading the memo beforehand is mandatory 7. Work alongside brainstorms, not against them
RULES OF ENGAGEMENT• Be inquisitive• Make the time• Understand the lines of argument• Take a view• Inform your work• Enjoy the debate
KEVIN DUNCAN 07979 firstname.lastname@example.org Twitter: @kevinduncan www.greatesthitsblog.com