Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Antifragile things get stronger when
subjected to stress and tension,
whereas fragile things break and
robust ones simply stay the same.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Procrustean bed: retrofitting causes
Fragilistas: cause fragility by thinking they
Barbell strategy: safe and speculative extremes
Ludic fallacy: mistake experiments with real world
Turkeys and inverse turkeys
Green lumber fallacy: unnecessary knowledge
Extremistan: impact of a single observation
Iatrogenics: harm done by the healer
Agency problem: manager is not true owner
Black swan errors
7. GREAT BY CHOICE
Great companies thrive despite
uncertainty, chaos and luck by
deploying fanatic discipline,
empirical creativity, and productive
8. GREAT BY CHOICE
10Xers companies have beaten their industry by a
minimum of ten times over 15 years. Their
Fanatic discipline – considered decisions with
Empirical creativity – as opposed to
Productive paranoia – being hypervigilant by
constantly zooming in and out (detail v. big
Do the 20 Mile March
Fire bullets, then cannonballs
9. WILFUL BLINDNESS
We become blind to the truth
because we are hard wired to stick
to what we know best, and we then
unwittingly use a range of
techniques to persuade ourselves
10. WILFUL BLINDNESS
Love is blind
The ostrich instruction
Just following orders
Out of sight, out of mind
11. TELL THE TRUTH
Unerman & Salem Baskin
In an age of information overload,
the most effective way for a brand to
stand out is to tell the truth.
12. TELL THE TRUTH
Unerman & Salem Baskin
Deliver real change to services and company
Take consumers on the brand truth journey
Enlist third-party advocates
Find a Truth Turning Point
Use point-of-action media
14. THE FILTER BUBBLE
You can get stuck in a static, ever-
narrowing version of yourself – a filter
bubble – if you are unaware of the
way in which the internet filters your
15. THE FILTER BUBBLE
A filter bubble is the unique universe of information
for each of us that only we see.
It has three main characteristics:
– 1. You’re alone in it
– 2. It’s invisible
– 3. You don’t choose to enter it
You can get stuck in a static, ever-narrowing
version of yourself – an endless You-loop.
We could be giving ourselves a ‘global lobotomy.’
The headline that has everything:
“Woman in sumo wrestler suit assaulted her ex-
girlfriend in gay pub after she waved at a man
dressed as a Snickers bar.”
16. DIGITAL VERTIGO
Today’s online social revolution is
dividing, diminishing and disorienting
us - the more electronically
connected we become, the lonelier
we seem to be.
17. DIGITAL VERTIGO
Stuck between internet longings for community
and powerful desire for online individual freedom.
The more electronically connected we become,
the lonelier we seem to be.
“I update, therefore I am.” For extreme users, their
internet profile has become their raison d’etre.
Information narcissists uninterested in anything
Engaged in an Age of Great Exhibitionism.
Human implications of Cult of the Social?
What happens to privacy when everyone is
subject to frictionless sharing in a transparent
Small groups of friends are the key to
influence on the social web.
Social networks not new, social web here to stay.
Sharing is a means to an end – it makes life easier.
Our social networks are made up of small
independent groups, connected through us.
The people closest to us have disproportionate
influence over us.
When spreading ideas, network structure is more
important than characteristics of the individuals.
How we behave is learned from observing others.
Many decisions made by nonconscious, emotional
brain - 200,000 times conscious brain capacity.
We’re wired to avoid trying new things - habit bias.
People turn to their friends for information
21. THINKING FAST AND SLOW
Be aware that your brain has two
systems – fast intuition and slower
conscious thought – and allow for
these when looking at decisions.
22. THINKING FAST AND SLOW
The mind is divided into two systems:
– System 1: makes fast, intuitive decisions based on associative
memory, vivid images and emotional reactions.
– System 2: slower, conscious, hard thought – more rational but
WYSIATI (What You See Is All There Is): jumping to
conclusions based on limited evidence.
Affect heuristic: making judgements based on
emotions: (How do I feel about?) is a surrogate for
a harder question (What do I think about it?).
Premortem: just before committing to something
important, imagine it’s a year on and it was a
disaster - write a short history of what happened.
24. DRINKING FROM THE FIRE HOSE
Frank & Magnone
You can avoid drowning in data by
asking seven simple questions.
25. DRINKING FROM THE FIRE HOSE
Frank & Magnone
Spray and Pray is too common
Seven questions based on discovery, insight, and
1. What is the essential business question?
2. Where is your customer’s North Star?
3. Should you believe the squiggly line?
4. What surprised you?
5. What does the lighthouse reveal?
6. Who are your swing voters?
7. The three Ws: What? So what? Now what?
Ideas come from sheer
persistence, but only when we relax,
so if you work hard enough on
something, and focus on not being
focused, there will eventually be an
Muses, higher powers and creative ‘types’ are
Creativity is not a ‘gift’ that only some possess – it’s
a catch-all for distinct thought processes that we
can all learn to use more effectively.
It’s only after we’ve stopped searching for an
answer that it arrives.
Breakthroughs follow a ‘stumped phase’.
Trying to force insights can often prevent them–
ideas arrive when the mind is distracted or relaxed.
Focus on not being focused.
Ideas occur best in ‘third places’ – neither the
home nor the office.
29. INSANELY SIMPLE
Work as hard as you can to make
everything as simple as it can
30. INSANELY SIMPLE
Think small: small groups get more done
Think minimal: just communicate one thing
Think motion: momentum is crucial to projects
Think iconic: essence in a conceptual image
Think phrasal: use short simple words
Think casual: no big company thinking and process
Think human: be true to your feelings
Think sceptic: expect negative first reactions of
Think war: extreme times call for extreme measures
32. READ THIS BEFORE YOUR NEXT MEETING
Reducing the number and length of
meetings increases productivity.
33. READ THIS BEFORE YOUR NEXT MEETING
Traditional meetings create a culture of
compromise and kill our sense of urgency.
1. Meet only to support a decision that has already been
2. Move fast and end on schedule
3. Limit the number of attendees
4. Reject the unprepared
5. Produce committed action plans
6. Refuse to be informational. Reading the memo
beforehand is mandatory
7. Work alongside brainstorms, not against them
34. RULES OF ENGAGEMENT
• Be inquisitive
• Make the time
• Understand the lines of argument
• Take a view
• Inform your work
• Enjoy the debate
35. KEVIN DUNCAN