The World This Week: July 29 - August 2, 2013


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The World This Week: July 29 - August 2, 2013

  1. 1. The World This Week July 29 – August 2, 2013
  2. 2. Equity View - In the latest RBI policy there was no change in the repo rate and CRR rate. As we have been talking about the RBI has been tightening interest rates for the last 3 weeks. Significant changes have been made to LAF corridor and the MSF is now at 10.25%, as an effect of that the short term interest rates specially the call money rates have gone up to almost 11% which has caused a negative impact on the short term borrowing cost for most of the corporate and the banking space. The banking sector has reacted to this with a significant correction in most of the large cap private sector and public sector names. If you look at the earnings which have come in from the banking sector so far, the earnings seem to be more or less in line with the expectation however, there will be some concerns with the asset quality. With this hike in short term interest rates there may be some more stress on the banking front which is getting reflected with a very sharp correction in most of the banking stocks at this point of time. We believe that this correction will continue for some more time and hence we recommend a cautious stance on the banking space in the short term. We have seen auto sales number which continues to be quite muted for the month of July also. We have seen most of the two wheeler companies deliver almost flattish sales growth. Most of the four wheeler companies have declared de-growth in Y-o-Y sales numbers. The only silver lining has been a significant increase in tractor sales in the last few months, primarily on the back of good monsoon and good sewing season we have seen so far. In terms of industrial sector growth we have seen core 8 industries growth coming at 0.1% on a Y-o-Y basis, last month as compared to 2.3% for the month of May. So, industrial activity also does not show any significant sign of revival at this point of time. In terms of results we have seen good set of numbers coming in from the telecom space. It seems the pricing power has returned to the sector. There has been a significant increase in Average Revenue per user for most of the companies like Bharti and Idea which have delivered results last week. We believe that this is the beginning of a peculiar trend as far as realization is concerned for most of the companies. We expect the industry to undergo a consolidation phase in the next 1 – 1.5 years and thereby we will be left with only 4 or 5 strong players which would come under significant pricing power so which would come under significant pricing power, which calls for a structural reiterating of telecom space and we have changed our view on telecom space from neutral to positive at this point of time and both Bharti and Idea appear to be positive on the valuation perspective.
  3. 3. Commodity View – There is a question in everyone’s head of what exactly happened at the NSEL. NSEL is the National Spot Exchange Ltd so the total. As per the law anything above 11 days of contract is deemed to be a forward contract. FMC and government have given a special permission to NSEL to carry out these spot trading activities upto 10 plus 1 day which is 11 days. What these exchanges had predominantly done was launched a contract which was T plus 60 so that it can be used as an arbitrage product. Typically what the clients do is buy a T plus 2 contract and sell a T plus 60 contract. This is actually a kind of an arbitrage contract for the millers and the sellers who actually wanted funding for their commodities which is lying idle in the warehouse. This arbitrage is likely to give 14% – 16% depending upon the contract and the commodities on the line. The key question here is that there are concerns raised on the quantity of the stocks. NSEL claims that there is 1 lac ton of castor seeds in Rajkot warehouse and on the other side NCDEX which is the largest commodity futures trading exchange in India with Pan India presence of warehouses has a 97 lacs tones of cash stake. The NSEL claims that in one warehouse of Rajkot they have 1 lac castor seeds. This is true for Jeera and all other commodity including the paddy. There was a clear violation going on for forward contracts when permission was given for spot contract. There was no clear demarcation of the stocks which were lying and there was no audit on those stocks, hence, creating a kind of a scam scenario. The sellers keep selling and the buyers keep paying but at the end of the day there is no stock in the warehouse. Also the settlement guaranteed fund which is claiming to be 800 crores happens to be 65 Crores today. So there is no clear picture which is coming out and a lot more clarity is needed and there is no clear regulation for the spot commodity exchanges. This is what the FMC has pitched for, to resolve these crises. Gold View We have witnessed almost a 38% fall from $1900 to sub $1200 level. In rupee terms the fall was close to 20%. The fall in the gold price was pre dominantly triggered due to gold being considered as an indicator for US. At this point of time there are no fundamental or technical indicators that could drive the commodities market but clearly the fund flows are driving the market. There are expectations that the Fed might trim down QE from the current $85bn to $65bn in September and then $45bn in December. Fed has actually toned down their stance from hawkish to dovish in the recent meeting. Gold has fallen below the production cost. For the largest miner in South Africa, the Anglo-Asian, cost of production per ounce is like $1200 and for the second largest its $1350 per ounce. Gold testing sub 1200 levels – i.e. $1181 to be precise, went below the marginal production costs which have supported the price in the international market. There’s a blessing in disguise at least in the domestic market. When gold fell from $1900 – $1200 rupee also depreciated from Rs 52 – Rs 61, hence supported the fall domestically. Gold tested Rs. 25000 levels twice and it has bounced back to Rs. 29000 levels.
  4. 4. The other major factor that has affected gold is India being the largest importer. In recent RBI restrictions, it has been aiming towards nearly stopping the gold imports in India. The expectation this year is 500 tonnes of import, which was close to 1000 tonnes of import last year. The true jeweler demand in India is close to 500 tonnes which has been kept in mind while deciding the restrictions. We see gold prices moving up in dollar terms but, we don’t see prices moving up drastically in Rupee terms and consider Rs. 25000 as the bottom level for gold. The reason for the prices being high is due to 8% import duty on gold imports which has increased the premium domestically. The premium today for an ounce of gold is $25. Crude View Crude is an indicator for the economy, we expect Crude to trade in a range bound market scenario. There was a Middle East tension but it has now been taken care of. Now Libya has started the production, Libya is one of the largest of oil producing nations in Africa. The suppress is coming into play and as an alternate shale gas is taking over the US economy. We don’t see oil prices shooting up in future and our view on crude stands neutral with a downward bias. News DOMESTIC MACRO The RBI left its policy repo rate at 7.25 percent and held banks' cash reserve ratio at a record low 4.00 percent but said it will roll back recent liquidity tightening measures when stability returns to the currency market. The government will sell shares in three state-owned firms through a share auction on Friday to meet the market regulator's rules for a minimum 10 percent public shareholding in state firms including State Trading Corp, Indian tourism Development Corp., Neyveli Lignite Corp. GLOBAL MACRO EURO The European Central Bank left interest rates at a record low 0.5 percent on Thursday and affirmed that they will remain there for some while to come and could yet fall further. Unemployment in the euro zone remained unchanged in June from the previous month, at 12.1 percent despite signs of an improvement in the economy. US U.S. economic growth unexpectedly accelerated in the second quarter with GDP at a 1.7 percent annual rate stepping up from the first quarter's downwardly revised 1.1 percent expansion pace.
  5. 5. U.S. factory activity jumped to a two-year high in July when index of national factory activity rose to 55.4 last month from 50.9 in June, buoyed by a surge in new orders and production. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell unexpectedly last week, touching a 5-1/2 year low, suggesting a steadily improving labor market. China China's central bank injected funds into money markets via open market operations on Tuesday for the first time since February, easing fears of another cash crunch ahead of the month end after a severe cash squeeze in June caused market panic. Indices Date USD GBP EURO YEN Crude (Rs. per BBL) Gold (Rs. Per 10gms) 29/07/2013 59.29 91.18 78.71 60.58 6314 28116 30/07/2013 59.82 91.75 79.32 60.84 6371 28377 31/07/2013 61.11 92.97 80.95 62.44 6396 28600 01/08/2013 60.74 92.05 80.60 61.69 6582 28249 02/08/2013 60.80 91.95 80.36 61.04 6654 27990 03/08/2013 6625 28371 -2.48% Rupee Depreciated -0.84% Rupee Depreciated -2.05% Rupee Depreciated -0.75% Rupee Depreciated 4.93% 0.91% Debt: Tenor Gilt Yield in % (Friday) Change in bps (Week) 1-Year 9.30 4 2-Year 9.04 13 5-Year 8.80 17 10-Year 8.28 12
  6. 6. Satadru Mitra Varun Goel Jharna Agarwal Abbas Naheed Kinjal Doshi Disclaimer The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth (a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations. Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 . (Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034) SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512”