The world this week january 23 - january 27 2012


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The world this week january 23 - january 27 2012

  1. 1. The World This WeekJan 23 – Jan 27, 2012
  2. 2. Equity View:Indian Equity Markets have rallied 12.6% since the beginning of the year, led by rally in sectors like Automobile, Metals, Banking,etc. The rally was further fuelled in last week with 50 bps cut in the CRR, further vindicating that interest rate has peaked andrate cuts are in the offing in the Mar 2012 review post the Union Budget. Our view is that as the inflation number is cooling-offwe expect some kind of repo cut in the RBI’s policy review scheduled in month of March.Food inflation continues to be in negative territory for last several weeks. We expect the January inflation number to be inaround 7-7.5% level which will give RBI the necessary comfort and cushion for cuts in Repo or Reverse Repo rates. Also, the 10%appreciation in rupee has provided a cushion to the imported inflation especially the energy inflation. FII flows have also beenup for year till date. For the month of January FII’s have pumped in Rs 78 billion. Also, from the global perspective India has beenan outperformer when compared to other emerging markets.Results season continued in with BHEL declaring its Q3 results. The results were much below the expectations. Companydelivered the sales growth of 19% whereas the profits grew by only 2%. Order inflow for the nine-month ending Decemberstood at Rs. 13,360Crs. which is merely one-fifth of what the company had targeted at the beginning of FY12.In Greece, there has been lot of back and forth on private bondholder’s haircut on Greece sovereign debt. If some kind ofsettlement comes in this week, there could be further upside in the equity markets especially in Europe and US. The point ofcontention in theory is that the private bond holders do not want more than 60% haircut whereas the government in Greece ispushing for a 70% haircut in the bond holdings. If some conclusion is arrived at during the week then we can see some positivesfrom Euro area.Commodities View:In the month of January, gold witnessed a sideway to slight negative movement in the prices. The interest regime of Greekstocks and the European community is been over shadowing the gold prices. We expect gold to remain stable because of givenuncertainty of the private bond holder haircut. Also, on technical basis gold has given a clear breakout in the consolidationwhich it has been showing in last few months. It is a clear sign of gold going upwards to $2000-2200 levels in coming months.Oil is been trading at $100 per barrel for sometime now which is not the good sign for global economy. There could be someminor correction given the European uncertainty. We are bullish on oil for next few months. There have been talks of liquiditypumping in from European Union, European Central Bank and Federal Reserve. FED has indicated that they would keep zerointerest rate till 2014. This is a kind of indication which would push commodity prices altogether.News:DOMESTIC MACRO:  Indias food inflation declined to -1.03% in the year to January 14, from an annual -0.42% rise in the previous week.  Indias foreign exchange reserves stood at $292.525 billion as of January 13, down from $293.541 billion in the previous week.  The RBI cut CRR, the share of deposits banks must hold with the central bank, by 50 basis points to 5.50 percent on Tuesday to ease tight liquidity, signaling a policy shift towards reviving growth after nearly two years of fighting inflation.
  3. 3.  The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may intervene in the forward foreign exchange market, in addition to the spot market, to help manage liquidity in the banking system, a central bank source said on Friday.GLOBAL MACROEURO:  Greeces international lenders think the indebted country will need 145 billion Euros of public money from the euro zone for its second bailout rather than the planned 130 billion Euros, German news magazine Der Spiegel reported on Saturday.  Fitch downgraded the sovereign credit ratings of Belgium, Cyprus, Italy, Slovenia and Spain on Friday. Fitch cut Italys rating to A-minus from A-plus; Spain to A from AA-minus; Belgium to AA from AA-plus; Slovenia to A from AA-minus and Cyprus to BBB-minus from BBB, leaving the small island nation just one notch above junk status.  The European Union and IMF want Greece to push through more budget cuts and implement a series of long-agreed austerity reforms before they agree on a new bailout the country needs to avert bankruptcy  Italys borrowing costs dropped sharply as it sold the maximum amount of 5 billion euros at an auction of short-term debt on Thursday, helping drive down yields on its longer-dated bonds ahead of a crucial sale of five- and 10-year paper on Monday.US:  Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.8% annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Friday, a sharp acceleration from the 1.8% in the prior three months.China:  Slowing growth in China is emerging as a concern in some of this quarters earnings reports from U.S. multinationals that have long relied on strong growth in China and other emerging markets to drive their profits.
  4. 4. Swapnil Pawar Varun Goel Jharna Agarwal Palak Nanjani Abbas Naheed Kanika Khorana DisclaimerThe information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth or other Karvy Group companies. Theinformation contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouchfor the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any lossincurred based upon it.The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their owninvestment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice,as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note thatneither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use ofthis information and views mentioned here.The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentionedcompanies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individualstock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investmentrecommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation haseither been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders onlythrough Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors areadvised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expectsignificant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidenceof tax on investmentsKarvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited): Operates from within India and is subject to Indianregulations. Mumbai office Address: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra KurlaComplex, Mumbai 400 051 (Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, StreetNo.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034) SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(FandO): INF230770138, BSE:INB010770130, BSE(FandO): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512”