The World This Week January 21 - January 25 2013


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The World This Week January 21 - January 25 2013

  1. 1. The World This Week Jan 21 – Jan 25, 2013
  2. 2. Equity View:The RBI’s monetary review is scheduled for on 29th January 2013. We are expecting a 25-50 basis pointscut in repo rate. Consensus expectation is of the 25 basis points cut and is already factored in by themarkets. Also, along with the repo rate cut there is expectation that the there would be cut in CRR by 25basis points. However, there is also lot of speculation on whether the governor would go for anaggressive rate cut of 50 basis points cut as done previously in April 2012 review. Overall we believe thatthere will be some reduction in the interest rates post the review.We believe that in during calendar year 2013 we could see 100-150 basis points of reduction in repo rate.This could be in way of small cuts at regular intervals i.e. 25 basis points in January review and next 25basis points cut in March review or it could be an aggressive 50 basis points cut in January review itselfand next cut could be in FY 14.In terms of inflation, we have witnessed a cooling-off in inflation numbers in last few months and areexpecting a further cooling in the numbers in this year on back of two things: 1. Adverse base effect; 2.Core manufacturing inflation is been coming down since last few months and is now below 5% markwhich a lowest level since 2.5 years and hence we expect the inflation to remain moderate during thecalendar year.Last week, the quarterly earnings season continued with automobile companies announcing good set ofresults. Although, commercial vehicles (CV) growth continued to remain muted; we believe that as andwhen the manufacturing growth revives during the next two quarters, we would see a bounce back in theCV sales also. Passenger vehicle sales have also started to show good growth and would see furtherbounce back in coming quarters.In terms of various reforms measures that are being announced and implemented, we are nowwitnessing a lot of talk about Goods & Services Tax (GST). There is an expectation that during the courseof this year we would see negotiations and agreement between the central & the state governments onthe taxation rates and dates of joining for GST implementation and it is believed that the GST would beimplemented by April 2014. We are not expecting GST to be implemented before FY 14; however, we dobelieve that lot of ground could be covered in FY14 for smooth implementation of the GST in April 2014.As mentioned even earlier, GST is one of the biggest reform measures since 1991 and it could add 100-150 bps in GDP growth every year once it is implemented.
  3. 3. News:DOMESTIC MACRO: RBI announced the eased restrictions in a notification stating limits on government bond investments would be raised by $5 billion to $25 billion for FIIs, and by $5 billion to $50 billion across corporate bonds. For the first 9 months of this fiscal, banks’ advances grew 7.4 percent, compared with 10.5 percent a year earlier, while deposit growth was 7.3 percent compared with 11.3 percent in the same period a year ago, data from the Reserve Bank of India showed on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has allowed exporters to access the foreign exchange market without having to first exhaust funds in their foreign currency accounts, reversing a previous restriction imposed to prevent a sharp fall in the rupee.GLOBAL MACROEURO Markits "flash" Composite Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index, which surveys around 5,000 firms and is viewed as a good growth indicator, jumped by more than expected to 48.2 from Decembers 47.2. The "positive contagion" on financial markets is not yet feeding into the economy at large but the euro zone should see recovery in the second half of the year, ECB President Mario Draghi said on Friday. International bankers and finance ministers warned on Saturday that Europes crisis was not over even though the euro currency is now stabilised, it will take years to overcome economic malaise and mass unemployment in Europe.US Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 330,000, the lowest level since January 2008, the Labor Department said on Thursday.China The HSBC flash purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 51.9 in January, the highest since January 2011 and above the 50-point level that shows accelerating growth in the sector from the previous month.
  4. 4. dru Mitra Varun Goel Jharna Agarwal Abbas Naheed Kinjal Mehta DisclaimerThe information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth (a division of Karvy Stock BrokingLimited) or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sourcesthat we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is forpersonal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their owninvestment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independentadvice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may pleasenote that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arisingfrom the use of this information and views mentioned here.The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclosetheir individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysisand investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time thisrecommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restrictedto place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investorsare advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We alsoexpect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicabilityand incidence of tax on investmentsKarvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indianregulations.Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at:702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 .(Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills,Hyderabad 500 034)SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O):INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBIRegistration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512”