The World This Week December 10 - December 14 2012
The World This WeekDec 10 – Dec 14, 2012
Equity View: Last week Indian equity markets corrected by 0.5% over previous week’s closing. This small correction was largely on the back of concerns about the status of the finance bill that has been discussed in the parliament. In the last couple of weeks the government has been pushing ahead with various bills. However, there are some concerns that the new banking reforms might bring some problems, which would not allow smooth passage of the bill in the parliament. We believe that government will continue to push through some of these reform methods. This week we might see the tabling of the Insurance Bill and the Pension Bill which seeks to increase the FDI limit in Insurance from current 26% to 49% and allow FDI in Pension. The government has decided to clear the land acquisition bill which has been formulated keeping in mind the new compensation policy for the land owners. According to this any acquisition of land by private parties will require mandatory 80% consent from land owners which will result into manifold increase in the settlement and compensation load. Once we have more clarity, it would help in clearance on lot of large projects which are held up in the last few years because of lack of clarity in the land acquisition bill. We also have the monetary policy tomorrow where we are expecting a cut in CRR of 25 bps. We are not expecting any repo rate cut from tomorrow’s review. We believe that RBI will carry out repo cuts in January review. We expect 50 basis points repo cut in January review by RBI. In terms of global events the markets continue to discuss and talk about the impending Fiscal Cliff in US. We believe that there might be last minute compromises being made and the markets will continue to swing in the short term. This will not have an immediate big negative impact for the markets, at least from a base rate expectations point of view. We continue to look at it but we don’t believe that it has potential to change the trajectory of the Indian stock market.News:DOMESTIC MACRO: The wholesale price index (WPI), Indias main inflation gauge, rose 7.24 percent from a year earlier, below expectations for a rise of 7.6 percent and below Octobers 7.45 percent. An easing in annual fuel and manufacturing inflation helped rein in price pressures. The index of industrial production (IIP) grew 8.2 percent annually. September output growth was revised down to a contraction of 0.7 percent from a contraction of 0.4 percent. The RBI proposed in its draft guidelines to raise the Tier I capital requirement for non-bank lending institutions with significant exposure in stocks, real estate, and commodities to 12 percent from the minimum of 7.5 percent now.GLOBAL MACROEURO Fitch Ratings stuck by its triple-A rating on France in a much-awaited review on Friday but warned that an expected peak in debt in 2014 was the limit it could agree to for a country with a top-notch credit grade. Britains prized triple-A credit rating came under fresh threat on Thursday, after ratings agency Standard & Poors cut its outlook for UK government debt to negative.
European leaders agreed on Friday to press on with further steps to tackle their debt crisis but German Chancellor Angela Merkel threw out a proposal to boost risk-sharing with a fund to help euro zone states in trouble.US The U.S. Federal Reserve, announcing a new round of monetary stimulus, took the unprecedented step on Wednesday of indicating interest rates would remain near zero until unemployment falls to at least 6.5 percent. Officials committed to buy $45 billion in longer-term Treasuries each month on top of the $40 billion per month in mortgage-backed bonds they started purchasing in September. The "fiscal cliff" impasse is raising the odds that Congress will fail to meet a year-end deadline to avert steep tax hikes and budget cuts that could push the nation into another recession.China Chinas foreign exchange regulator has removed the $1 billion limit for foreign sovereign wealth funds, central banks and monetary authorities buying Chinese assets through the Qualified Institutional Investor Programme (QFII).
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