Outthinker Speech to Fortune Gazelles Growth Summit

861 views

Published on

This is the one-your keynote we delivered to 600 entrepreneurs in Las Vegas on October 22, 2013. It outlines the key insights for how Outthinkers outthink strategic challenges.

Published in: Business, Technology
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Outthinker Speech to Fortune Gazelles Growth Summit

  1. 1. Gazelles Growth Summit Las Vegas, NV October 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff www.kaihan.net www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  2. 2. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  3. 3. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  4. 4. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  5. 5. Ray Kroc www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  6. 6. Mohammad Yunus www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  7. 7. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  8. 8. Tata www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  9. 9. Thomas Edison www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  10. 10. Betsy Johnson www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  11. 11. Richard Branson Oprah Winfrey Dhirubhai Ambani Bill Gates Sōichirō Honda Charles Revson www.kaihan.net Elizabeth Arden Henry Ford 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  12. 12. Martin Luther King, Jr. Rosa Parks Mother Teresa Mahatma Gandhi Mohammad Yunus Margaret Thatcher www.kaihan.net Nelson Mandela Benjamin Franklin 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  13. 13. Mark Zuckerberg CEO, Facebook Arianna Huffington CEO, Huffington Post Elon Musk CEO, Tesla Motors Susan Lyne CEO, Gilt Groupe Cory Booker Mayor, Newark, NJ, USA Marissa Mayer CEO, Yahoo Wayne Gattinella CEO, WebMD Robert Keane Sabrina Herrera Cofounder, Genomma Lab CEO, Vistaprint Jeff Bezos Founder, Amazon.com Larry Page CEO, Google Ann Hand CEO, Project Frog www.kaihan.net Josh Linkner Founder, ePrize Tom Adams CEO, Rosetta Stone Mark Vadon Founder, Blue Nile 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  14. 14. “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” Mohandas Gandhi www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  15. 15. The th 4 Option® The option beyond the obvious choices; the option others do not see, will not consider, and will not respond effectively to. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  16. 16. Climb the walls Wait Go home www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  17. 17. How can we predictably create a 4th Option®? www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  18. 18. Two Standard Approaches Option narrowing Rules 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. X X X Lay out options, apply data, arrive at the optimal option Alkdjfklsdlkj Asdlkfj bou Alsk boiuoidf Goibjhkal dgs Glijgbuu gds gljgoiud Follow proven rules or best practices www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  19. 19. Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process Imagine Dissect Expand Analyze Sell Choose leverage points others overlook Generate more potential strategies Choose strategies competitors will not copy Build buy-in for your strategy Objectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different future www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  20. 20. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  21. 21. URBN Revenue History $ Millions 2,470 2,270 1,840 1,940 1,510 1,090 1,230 830 350 425 2002 2003 550 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bloomberg & TIAA-CREF www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  22. 22. URBN Results Growth Profitability 5Y Ave.* Revenue CAGR (%) 5Y Ave.* EBITD Margin (%) URBN 13 ANF** 5 Industry 5 20 12 14 * 5 years average as of October 2013 ** Abercrombie & Fitch, closest peer by market capitalization Source: Reuters www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  23. 23. College students only Used clothing Artists not managers in charge Manager freedom Every store different … www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  24. 24. The 8Ps Position Process Price Promotion Product Place Physical experience 0 – no difference 1 – 4 year difference 2 – 5+ year difference People www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  25. 25. Survey www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  26. 26. 8P tool on www.kaihan.net www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  27. 27. How Do Great Strategists See the “Winning Move?” Alexandra Kosteniuk www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  28. 28. Consciousness Phonetic loop Source: Visuo-special sketchpad ??? Baddeley model of short term working memory www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  29. 29. Survey www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  30. 30. Consciousness Phonetic loop Source: Visuo-special sketchpad Episodic buffer Baddeley model of short term working memory www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  31. 31. Relative number of narratives chess players recognize: Grand master Master www.kaihan.net Expert 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  32. 32. Europe & Americas – Fairy tales Japan – Koan India – Puranas China – 36 stratagems www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  33. 33. Identifying Outthinkers Revenue growth (CAGR) (EBITDA) Profit margin Value creation (TRS) www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  34. 34. Core Research www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  35. 35. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  36. 36. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  37. 37. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground “I just think a future in which anyone can shoot stuff into space is more exciting than one which only the government can.” Elon Musk, founder, SpaceX (2003 interview) www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  38. 38. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  39. 39. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground Identify and move early to the next battleground. Where is the next battleground? - Technological trends? - Social shifts? - Geographies? - Buying patterns? - Needs? www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  40. 40. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  41. 41. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  42. 42. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  43. 43. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  44. 44. 34 Coordinate the Uncoordinated www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  45. 45. 34 Coordinate the Uncoordinated www.kaihan.net 50 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  46. 46. 34 Coordinate the Uncoordinated Combine and coordinate independent elements within your environment to orchestrate much greater power. Who would we like to coordinate? - Customers - Experts - Employees - Real estate - Regulators - Competitors - Driveways -… www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  47. 47. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  48. 48. 7 Force a Two-Front Battle www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  49. 49. 7 Force a Two-Front Battle “There is no physical analog for what Amazon.com is becoming.” - Jeff Bezos Cloud providers Retail www.kaihan.net Cloud services 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  50. 50. 7 Force a Two-Front Battle Traditional CPA firms Resources (Accnts) www.kaihan.net Projects 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  51. 51. 7 Force a two-front battle Project your unique capability into a new area. What is your unique advantage/ capability? Into what new area could you project this? www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  52. 52. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  53. 53. 33 Be Good Shareholders Environment Community Corporation Government / country Employees Customers www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  54. 54. 33 Be Good www.kaihan.net 59 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  55. 55. The Holstee Manifesto www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  56. 56. 33 Be good Adopt a strategy that Benefits others. How can you profitably benefit key stakeholders that you are not now considering? www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  57. 57. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  58. 58. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  59. 59. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing Julie Pickens www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  60. 60. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing Ingvar Kamprad www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  61. 61. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  62. 62. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  63. 63. 32 Create something out of nothing Add a new piece the board. What would you like to create/ add to the game? - New categories? - New occasions or needs? - New customers? - New suppliers? - New distributors? - New regulations? www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  64. 64. Find More Stratagems at www.kaihan.net www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  65. 65. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #22 Move early to the next battleground Where is the next battleground? #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated Who could you coordinate? #7 Force two-front battle How can you project into a new sector? #33 Be good How can you be good? #32 Create something out of nothing What can you create? www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  66. 66. “Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools.” Napoleon Bonaparte www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  67. 67. Make the impossible possible “Each of these looked like show stoppers” Don’t build handsets Risk of no WiFi David Morken, CEO Bandwidth.com www.kaihan.net Motorola Early adopters Customer Service too costly No one provides service 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  68. 68. “It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer.” - Albert Einstein www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  69. 69. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  70. 70. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  71. 71. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  72. 72. Ray Kroc www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  73. 73. Mohammad Yunus www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  74. 74. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  75. 75. Ratan Tata www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  76. 76. Thomas Edison www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  77. 77. Betsy Johnson www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  78. 78. kk@kaihan.net www.kaihan.net @kaihan • Register for newsletter, tools, videos • Work out your Fourth Option® • Email me to get presentation • Contact us at Outthinker for more support www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  79. 79. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  80. 80. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  81. 81. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff
  82. 82. www.kaihan.net 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorff

×