STRUCTURING THE
”FUZZY FRONT END
OF INNOVATION“
FROM STRATEGIC FORESIGHT
TO IMPLEMENTABLE
TECHNOLOGY AND PRODUCT
INNOVATIO...
STRUCTURING THE “FUZZY FRONT END OF INNOVATION“
FROM STRATEGIC FORESIGHT TO IMPLEMENTABLE TECHNOLOGY & PRODUCT INNOVATIONS...
SPINNER Group
SPINNER – High Frequency Performance Worldwide

SPINNER Plants

SPINNER General Management

 1946 Munich (G...
SPINNER Business Fields
SPINNER – Demanding Radiofrequency Technology between Transmitter and Antenna

Communication

Conn...
SPINNER – Innovative Radiofrequency Technology
Example:
SPINNER Wavelength Shrinking | Stretching
From 1D Metamaterials to...
Challenge “Fuzzy Front End of Innovation“

Information
on emerging and
upcoming developments

Future factors

Innovation
I...
Challenge “Fuzzy Front End of Innovation“
1 – Corporate Strategy and Demand for Innovation
Information
Corporate
on emergi...
Future Factors and Corporate Strategy
Technological Advance, Evolution of Technological Capabilities
Technology Trends (cf...
Future Factors and Corporate Strategy
Knowledge and
Understanding of the
Laws of Nature

Technological Advance, Evolution ...
Demand for Innovation from Corporate Strategy
Derivation of Demands for Innovation: Search Fields and Metrics
Demands for ...
Innovation Demands and Idea Evaluation
Innovation Demands in the Evaluation of Innovation Ideas
Demands for Innovation
acc...
Demand for Innovation from Corporate Strategy
Derivation of Demands for Innovation: Search Fields and Metrics
Demands for ...
Challenge “Fuzzy Front End of Innovation“
2 – Strategic Foresight and Innovation Impulses
Information
on emerging and
upco...
Strategic Foresight as Source for Innovation Impulses
Tools of Strategic Foresight and Future Management
Megatrends
Future...
Strategic Foresight as Source for Innovation Impulses
Tools of Strategic Foresight – Ex. 1: Outcome Driven Innovation
Cust...
Strategic Foresight as Source for Innovation Impulses
Tools of Strategic Foresight – Ex. 2: S-Curve Analysis and TRL
Techn...
Strategic Foresight as Source for Innovation Impulses
Tools of Strategic Foresight – Ex. 2: S-Curve Analysis | Gartner Hyp...
Strategic Foresight as Source for Innovation Impulses
Tools of Strategic Foresight – Future Radar and TIMELINES @ SPINNER
...
Strategic Foresight @ SPINNER
TIMELINES: Representation of the Strategic Foresight
Transferability

Enalbing Technologies
...
Strategic Foresight @ SPINNER
TIMELINES: Representation of the Strategic Foresight
Transferability

Technology

Identified...
Strategic Foresight @ SPINNER
Representation of Strategic Foresight | Proceeding with “enabling technologies“
Techn. Scann...
Innovation Impulses from Strategic Foresight
Opportunity Matrix – according to Pero Mićić | FutureManagementGroup
 Purpos...
Innovation Impulses from Strategic Foresight
CATO CUBE for Technology-Push Innovation Impulses

Feature 3
Feature 2
Featur...
Innovationsanstöße aus „Strategic Foresight“
From consideration of single factors to a future scenario („picture of the fu...
Challenge “Fuzzy Front End of Innovation“
3 – From Innovation Impulses to Concepts: Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES...
Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES
INES: From Innovation Impulses and Ideas to Implementable Concepts
Requirements to ...
Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES
INES as Advancement of a Stage-Gate Process
Stage-Gate Process according to R. Coop...
Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES
INES as Advancement of a Stage-Gate Process
Stage-Gate Process according to R. Coop...
Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES
INES as Advancement of a Stage-Gate Process

 Typically, many different ideas comp...
Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES
INES as Advancement of a Stage-Gate Process
Idea Pool + Ranking instead of Go/Kill
...
Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES
Idea Management: Steering and Prioritization under Fluctuating Conditions
SPINNER‘s...
Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES
Idea Management: Steering and Prioritization under Fluctuating Conditions
SPINNER‘s...
Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES
Idea Management: Steering and Prioritization under Fluctuating Conditions
SPINNER‘s...
Structuring the “Fuzzy Front End of Innovation“
Summary
Information
on emerging and
upcoming developments

from
Corporate
...
Thank you for your attention!
HIGH FREQUENCY PERFORMANCE WORLDWIDE
Dr. Kai H. E. Numssen
Leiter Innovationsmanagement
Head...
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Structuring the "Fuzzy Front End of Innovation“ – From Strategic Foresight to Implementable Technology and Product Innovations - FEI EMEA 2014

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Structuring the "Fuzzy Front End of Innovation“ –
From Strategic Foresight to Implementable Technology and Product Innovations
Front End of Innovation EMEA, Feb. 4th, 2014 - Munich (FEI EMEA 2014)

Abstract:
In order to meet the increasing pressure to innovate driven by accelerated change in technologies and markets and by intensifying global competition, leading-edge companies need a systematic Strategic Foresight, by which emerging threats as well as future opportunities and potentials are anticipated at an early stage. Besides, an innovation management must be able to transform the detected needs and opportunities to innovate into implementable concepts for technology and product innovations, which includes the ability to handle the fuzzy input in the innovation process.

SPINNER, a worldwide leading company in passive radiofrequency technology, has developed a consistent proceeding, which bridges the gap from fuzzy future factors and strategic requirements to technology and product innovations. The presentation shows how SPINNER’s innovation management spots and evaluates future market demands as well as emerging enabling technologies, how innovation impulses are derived, and how innovation ideas are generated. It also addresses the involved methods and tools and explains how SPINNER’s Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES paves the way from fuzzy ideas to implementable concepts, prioritizing the most valuable ideas and allowing for dynamic steering under fluctuating conditions.

Speaker:
Dr. Kai Numssen – Head of Innovation Management, SPINNER GmbH, Munich / Westerham, Germany

Published in: Business, Technology
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Structuring the "Fuzzy Front End of Innovation“ – From Strategic Foresight to Implementable Technology and Product Innovations - FEI EMEA 2014

  1. 1. STRUCTURING THE ”FUZZY FRONT END OF INNOVATION“ FROM STRATEGIC FORESIGHT TO IMPLEMENTABLE TECHNOLOGY AND PRODUCT INNOVATIONS DR. KAI NUMSSEN – SPINNER GMBH Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  2. 2. STRUCTURING THE “FUZZY FRONT END OF INNOVATION“ FROM STRATEGIC FORESIGHT TO IMPLEMENTABLE TECHNOLOGY & PRODUCT INNOVATIONS SPINNER Group – Demanding Radiofrequency Technology Worldwide  Markets and Product Portfolios:   Mobile Communication | Broadcast | Radar & Satellite | Industry & Science Leading Innovation in Passive RF Technology  Example: Pioneering Metamaterial Technology SWS - SPINNER Wavelength Shrinking | Stretching Structuring the “Fuzzy Front End of Innovation”  Corporate Strategy and Demand for Innovation  Role of Demand for Innovation in the Idea Evaluation  Demand for Innovation as an Impulse for an Innovation Campaign  Strategic Foresight and Innovation Impulses  Evaluation System for Innovation Impulses and Ideas Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  3. 3. SPINNER Group SPINNER – High Frequency Performance Worldwide SPINNER Plants SPINNER General Management  1946 Munich (Germany) Stephanie Spinner-König – Headquarters –  1966 Westerham (Germany) Managing Director since 1990 Joined the company in 1975  1991 Lauenstein (Germany) Katharina König Managing Director since 2010 Joined the company in 2004  1995 Szekszárd (Hungary)  2000 Shanghai (China) SPINNER Sales Offices SPINNER Representatives SPINNER Production Plants 1100 employees worldwide Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  4. 4. SPINNER Business Fields SPINNER – Demanding Radiofrequency Technology between Transmitter and Antenna Communication Connectors Jumper Cables Surge Protectors Splitters, Couplers, Filters, Diple xers, Tri- and Multiplexers MNCS (Mobile Network Combining) Broadcast Filters Switches Loads Channel Combiners Patch Panels Rigid Line Systems Radar & Satellite MNCS® – Mobile Network Combining System Coax & Waveguide Rotary Joints Optical Rotary Joints Hybride Rotary Joints with optical and Radiofrequency Chanels, Slip Rings, Encoders, contactless Power and Signal Transmission Transmitting and Receiving Antennas Feeder Cables for Phased Array Antennas Industry & Science High-precision components for laboratories, measuring and test facilities, and for MRI units, High-precision connectors , Measuring Adapters, Calibration Kits Coax Cable, Attenuators and Accessories WR 650 and WR 284 Waveguide and 6 1/8″ to 14" Rigid-Line Components and Networks Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  5. 5. SPINNER – Innovative Radiofrequency Technology Example: SPINNER Wavelength Shrinking | Stretching From 1D Metamaterials to SWS: Pioneering technology enabling unprecedented novel capabilities+βc/2 -βc/2 Shrinking Passive RF Components o The size of most RF components depend on the wavelength λ which is usually determined by the operating frequency via λ = c/f  SWS shrinks the wavelength at the given operating frequency thus allowing reduction of size f TEM stopband Dispersion Diagram Tailoring Dispersion Relations passband o Conventional λ–dependent coaxial structures only work at a given frequency and odd multiples of it owing to the rigorous relation between frequency and wavelength  SWS enables flexible dual-band use of a component as it allows bending of the relation between frequency and wavelength Generating Pass Bands and Stop Bands fop: operating  SWS structures can be designed to support frequency selectivity as it renders possible to generate pass bands and / or stop bands frequency Overcoming Thermal Limitations of Power Rating β=2/λ λTEM=c/fop λLH < λTEM o Insufficient heat transfer from inner to outer conductor owing to low thermal conductivity of dielectrics restricts power handling capability of rigid line components  SWS strongly increases thermal coupling of inner and outer conductor → Wavelength shrinking lTEM l LH e.g.: very short SWS Low Pass Filter Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Suspending Higher Order Mode Disturbance o Cut-off frequencies of higher order modes (HOM) limit the usable frequency range  SWS can create wide monomodal TEM bands above HOM cut-off frequencies by introducing band gaps disabling HOM propagation and thus allowing "over-moded" operation w/o any HOM disturbance Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  6. 6. Challenge “Fuzzy Front End of Innovation“ Information on emerging and upcoming developments Future factors Innovation Ideas Impulses, Search Fields Orientation? Concept Product Commercialization PDP screen, select concrete augment, enhance, maturate, refine projectable combine several information and ideas sequential depending on eureka moments and time-staggered findings demand flexibility, agility, interdisciplinary collaboration, handling of “soft facts“ Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 efficiency oriented Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  7. 7. Challenge “Fuzzy Front End of Innovation“ 1 – Corporate Strategy and Demand for Innovation Information Corporate on emerging and upcoming developments Strategy and Demand for Innovation Future factors Innovation Ideas Impulses, Search Fields Orientation? Concept Product Commercialization PDP screen, select concrete augment, enhance, maturate, refine projectable combine several information and ideas sequential depending on eureka moments and time-staggered findings demand flexibility, agility, interdisciplina ry collaboration, handling of “soft facts“ Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 efficiency oriented Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  8. 8. Future Factors and Corporate Strategy Technological Advance, Evolution of Technological Capabilities Technology Trends (cf. e.g. TRIZ Laws of technical systems evolution) General Needs Self-actualization System technology developments social political legislative regulatory economic ecological technological Technological Development Megatrends influence technology deveiopment Environmental Factors Progress in Science and Technology Safety Business Fields (only partly) predictable or disruptive changes, only to a small part influenceable Customer requirements, Demand in market segment Corporate Strategy Strengths Capabilities Resources Weaknesses S&M, Dev., Innovation HR, Fin., IT Strategy Strategies Market Trends Esteem Belonging Developments of Enabling Techn. in an Application Area Opportunities + Threats Knowledge and Understanding of the Laws of Nature Megatrends Fundamental/physiological needs Maslow‘s Pyramid of Needs Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Development of Needs Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  9. 9. Future Factors and Corporate Strategy Knowledge and Understanding of the Laws of Nature Technological Advance, Evolution of Technological Capabilities Technology Trends (cf. e.g. TRIZ Laws of technical systems evolution) Progress in Science and Technology E E? E EXEMPLARY Developments of Enabling Techn. in an Application Area High Werkze Neue System Lösungs Handels Technic Others Power uge, Produkt e projekte ware al Zubeh e Service ör O P Q R E S Self-actualization Safety Customer requirements, Demand in market segment Corporate Strategy Strengths Capabilities Resources Weaknesses S&M, Dev., Innovation HR, Fin., IT Strategy Strategies Market Trends Esteem Belonging Business Fields Y (only partly) predictable or disruptive changes, only to a small part influenceable REPRESENTATION General Needs T Opportunities + Threats legislative regulatory economic ecological technological System technology developments B Megatrends influence technology deveiopment A EMP Konf. RL/HL Koppleof strategic statementsAktivea MessRepresentation Absor Schalte Drehüb Filter Combi in Kabel b. ning Kompo Hilfsmi Products / Market Komp. r (PMM) social Leitung r Matrix ertrage Komp r Einheit nenten ttel en und Product portfolios political E C D F G H J K L M N Environmental Factors Markets Stecke Elip. r HL Technological Development Megatrends Fundamental/physiological needs Maslow‘s Pyramid of Needs Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Development of Needs Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  10. 10. Demand for Innovation from Corporate Strategy Derivation of Demands for Innovation: Search Fields and Metrics Demands for Innovation Turnover, Revenue, or similar according to type and area as well as size and importance Technological Renewal Adaptation to future needs Portfolio extension | adjacent market segm. strategic target-setting potential gap as innovation impulse new products, incremental innovations PO: new markets Strategic Gap Product portfolio maintainance Balance of strategy statements with the actual state, particularly w/ reference to PMM existing product portfolio Time Innovation arena / Search field – from type and area of the innovation demands Metrics (assessment standards) – from size and importance of the innovation demands PMM SGF Stecke Elip. r HL A B EMP C Business field strategies Konf. RL/HL Kopple Absor Schalte Drehüb Filter Combi Aktive Mess- High Werkze Neue System Lösungs Handels Technic Others Kabel Leitung r b. r ertrage ning Kompo Hilfsmi Power uge, Produkt e projekte ware al s Komp Komp. r Einheit nenten ttel Zubeh e Service en und ör D E F G E H E? J K E L M N O P Q R E S T Y Broadcast Radar&Satelitte Industry&Science CO Outdoor PMM IBS Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  11. 11. Innovation Demands and Idea Evaluation Innovation Demands in the Evaluation of Innovation Ideas Demands for Innovation according to type and area as well as size and importance Technological Renewal Adaptation to future needs Portfolio extension | adjacent market segm. Strategic Gap Turnover, Revenue, or similar strategic target-setting potential gap as innovation impulse new products, incremental innovations PO: new markets Product portfolio maintainance existing product portfolio Representation of Innovation Demands over PMM → iPMM Product portfolios → Markets ↓ EXEMPLARY REPRESENTATION Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Time Metrics (assessment standards) – from size and importance of the innovation demands Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  12. 12. Demand for Innovation from Corporate Strategy Derivation of Demands for Innovation: Search Fields and Metrics Demands for Innovation according to type and area as well as size and importance Technological Renewal Adaptation to future needs Portfolio extension | adjacent market segm. Turnover, Revenue, or similar Strategic Gap strategic target-setting potential gap as innovation impulse new products, incremental innovations PO: new markets Product portfolio maintainance existing product portfolio Time Innovation arena / Search field – from type and area of the innovation demands Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Innovation Impulse Innovation demand with high strategic relevance Innovation Campaign to resolve the need for innovation in interdisciplinary collaboration involving: • Product Development, • Sales & Marketing, • Strategic Marketing, steered by: Innovation Management Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  13. 13. Challenge “Fuzzy Front End of Innovation“ 2 – Strategic Foresight and Innovation Impulses Information on emerging and upcoming developments Future factors Strategic Foresight and Innovation Impulses Innovation Ideas Impulses, Search Fields Orientation? Concept Product Commercialization PDP screen, select concrete augment, enhance, maturate, refine projectable combine several information and ideas sequential depending on eureka moments and time-staggered findings demand flexibility, agility, interdisciplinary collaboration, handling of “soft facts“ Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 efficiency oriented Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  14. 14. Strategic Foresight as Source for Innovation Impulses Tools of Strategic Foresight and Future Management Megatrends Future factors Future Management Trends & Topics from PESTEL Analysis Eltviller Model ('5 Glasses') Patent Analysis External Experts Scientific Advisors, Technology Advisory Board Technology Foresight Technology Scanning & Screening: Analysis and evaluation of publications, patents, technology offers, research results etc. according to Pero Midid | FMG S-Curve Analysis TRIZ Technology 9 Fields Monitoring, Laws of Techn. Radar Evolution Opportunity Matrix according to Pero Midid | FMG Innovation Impulses Scenario technique Future workshops with customers and suppliers Demand Trends Market reports Trend Receiver Concept Competitive acc. Rupert Hofmann intelligence Market Intelligence Market Niche Detector Customer Customer Centered Insight & Innovation Map | ODI VoC Outcome Driven Innovation acc. A. Ulwick Business field strategies Corporate strategy Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  15. 15. Strategic Foresight as Source for Innovation Impulses Tools of Strategic Foresight – Ex. 1: Outcome Driven Innovation Customer Centered Innovation Map | Outcome Driven Innovation according to Anthony Ulwick | STRATEGYN degree of satisfaction  Purpose: Achieve profound understanding of needs and requirements of customers  Proceeding:  Identification of the functional task (“job to be done“ – in all stages) which the customers have to deal with as well as the desired / ideal outcome  Assessment of the importance and the degree of satisfaction for all stages of the job to be done  Result: "Opportunity Landscape" as a guide to innovation impulses and as a metric for innovation ideas 1 Understanding of customers‘ “pain points“ and important, under-served needs (in future) is a prerequisite Basic requirements, little differentiation potential over-served 0.8 0.6 0.4 Opportunities for sustainable and break-through innovations 0.2 approprietly served 0.2 0.4  to develop the required “enabling technologies“ in time under-served 0 0  to address the most promising market segments 0.6 0.8 1 importance  Our amendment: Check "Commitment" – how much (own) effort (in terms of resources) would a customer be willing to make for an improvement? Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014  to evaluate technologies and product ideas according to their potential to contribute to satisfying the identified needs Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  16. 16. Strategic Foresight as Source for Innovation Impulses Tools of Strategic Foresight – Ex. 2: S-Curve Analysis and TRL Technology Readiness Assessment TRL 9: Actual system proven through successful mission operations TRL 8: Actual system completed and qualified through test & demonstration TRL 7: System prototype demo in an operational environment (1-5 years) TRL 6: System model or prototype demonstration in relevant environment  Purpose: Foresight on upcoming development steps and anticipation of technology leaps  Current state on the S-curve can be determined e.g. by means of quantity and quality of patents, scientific publications, invested venture capital and funding, formation of “ecosystems" around an new technology, profitability... First hint on technology change performance Classification of the maturity level TRL of evolving technologies to assess their applicability in development projects S-Curve Analysis and Development Potential …or coexistence of both technologies (“ambidexterty“) Obsolescence & decline TRL 5 Component / breadboard validation in relevant environment Maturity TRL 4: Component / breadboard validation in laboratory environment TRL 3: Proof of functionality of the technology concept (5-13 years) Leap to substituting new technology Growth Emergence TRL 2: Technology concept and/or application formulated TRL 1: Basic principles observed and reported (8-15 years) Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 failing technology alternative cumulative effort Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  17. 17. Strategic Foresight as Source for Innovation Impulses Tools of Strategic Foresight – Ex. 2: S-Curve Analysis | Gartner Hype Cycle S-Curve and Gartner Hype Cycle Performance First hint on technology change Leap to substituting new technology …or coexistence of both technologies (“ambidexterty“) Obsolescence Maturity failing technology alternative Growth Emergence cumulative effort Gartner Hype Cycle Typical sequence of the assessment of new technologies: 1. Technology Trigger 2. Peak of Inflated Expectations 3. Trough of Disillusionment 4. Slope of Enlightenment 5. Plateau of Productivity Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  18. 18. Strategic Foresight as Source for Innovation Impulses Tools of Strategic Foresight – Future Radar and TIMELINES @ SPINNER Future Radar Market Trends / Demand Developments t Future / Emerging Enabling Technologies TIMELINES at SPINNER:  Reference to time axis: representation not as a point in time, but expected development phases as periods of time  cluster topics  establish and display relations between topics (in order to recognize alternative options and to find reasonable combinations when selecting focus topics) besides:  Reference to PMM  Collection of information to each topic  Selection of focus topics Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  19. 19. Strategic Foresight @ SPINNER TIMELINES: Representation of the Strategic Foresight Transferability Enalbing Technologies Brief presentation (excerpt from collected information material) Identified topics from Technology Foresight (enabling technologies) Business field topics Crosssectional topics e2.0 forums for discussion & exchange Market / Demand Links to: Focus topic developmt. of know-howTechnology development EXEMPLARY REPRESEN TATION - Identified topics from Market Intelligence (Foresight on future demands) Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Readiness for application Representation over time axis evaluation test planning early adoption major adoption phaseout Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  20. 20. Strategic Foresight @ SPINNER TIMELINES: Representation of the Strategic Foresight Transferability Technology Identified topics from Technology Foresight (enabling technologies) Readiness for application Product portfolios → Future enabling Focus topic developmt. of know-howTechnology development technologies Technology-Product to meet demands for Matrix (TPM): technological renewal Linking technology EXEMEXEMPLAR PLARY Y REPRESEN EXEMPLAR Y TATION topics to product portfolios Market / Demand Crosssectional topics Produktportfolios → Business field topics Innovation-PMM: Mapping of (technological) innovation demands on the PMM Identified topics from Market Intelligence (Foresight on future demands) ↑ Markets REPRESENTATI Product portfolios → MarketsON ↓ REPRESENTATI Product-Market Alignment of Matrix (PMM): ON identified Representation market evaluation test Linking demand developments topics and market and Corporate developments to Strategy affected product planning early adoption major adoption phaseout portfolios Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 of the strategic direction Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  21. 21. Strategic Foresight @ SPINNER Representation of Strategic Foresight | Proceeding with “enabling technologies“ Techn. Scanning identify topic identify the topic, add first information and desciptions, plac e on time axis, add potential relations and links to other topics Align with needs and requirements, s. o. Techn. Scouting gather information (proactively) acquire information proactively from all relevant sources (conferences, exper ts, publica-tions etc.), communicate focus topics internally to stakeholders, se t up e2.0 forum explore transferability explore potential transferability to given application area, basic feasibility and potential advantages Reduction of the number of focused topics Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 develop know-how study transferability in usage field, identify application potentials and carve out unique capabilities and advantages, underst and and address impediments, which need to be overcome technology development (ready for application) development of technology concepts / “building blocks“ ready for application in products application in products development of products based on the novel technology or “building block“ Gate From each stage to the next the topics are re-assessed / evaluated, prioritized and selected Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  22. 22. Innovation Impulses from Strategic Foresight Opportunity Matrix – according to Pero Mićić | FutureManagementGroup  Purpose: Projection of future factors to possible fields of action, e.g. product life cycle phases (which a company can act on) in order to discover innovation potentials → innovation impulses  Future factors are driving forces of change  Possible fields of action – product life cycle phases offer options for action towards the customer Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Deinstallation Disposal uninstall, remove disposal adaption, updates, Adaption upgrades commissioning, be- Starting operation ginning of operation Usage, regular operation Operation service and maintenance Maintenance administration Logistics internal logistics shipment payment Buying buy a solution selection search for solution analysis of needs (general or concrete future factors related to the business field) Future factors / Trends from Strategic Foresight Sustainability Individualization Acceleration – safe time for the customer Pricing pressure – safe customers‘ financial resources 3D printer technology / additive manufacturing Invisibility cloaking by means of metamaterials ... need recognition Definition Possible fields of action: Product life cycle phases Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  23. 23. Innovation Impulses from Strategic Foresight CATO CUBE for Technology-Push Innovation Impulses Feature 3 Feature 2 Feature 1 CAPABILITIES → 1. Determine the novelty of an emerging technology (non-judgementally): Which novel features and capabilities has the new technology or the novel effect? → CAPABILITIES 2. Build a cube with the three axes: C – CAPABILITIES (s.o.) A – APPLICATIONS: Applications, e.g. products, for which the new technology / effect is to be used T – TRENDS: Trends, general developments directions in the considered technological field 3. Create projections in all three planes in order to find novel "OPPORTUNITIES": C-A: What happens when the novel feature X is used for application Y / is applied to (develop) product Y? What could be useful or beneficial about it? C-T: Can one of the novel features serve to meet a trend? A-T: What trends are relevant for which applications? 4. What further investigations should be carried out to implement the found "Opportunities"? APPLICATIONS → Trend 3, e.g. increasing complexity Trend 2, z.B. miniaturization Trend 1, e.g. dematerialization Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  24. 24. Innovationsanstöße aus „Strategic Foresight“ From consideration of single factors to a future scenario („picture of the future„) Consideration of single future factors to derive opportunities and innovation impulses Consideration of the expected future as well as the transformation into the future state Compose future factors to a (more holistic) picture of the future Interaction of future factors offers additional opportunities Solutions Derive opportunities, search fields, and innovation impulses from the picture of the future Potential needs Search fields Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  25. 25. Challenge “Fuzzy Front End of Innovation“ 3 – From Innovation Impulses to Concepts: Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES Information on emerging and upcoming developments Future factors Innovation Ideas Impulses, Search Fields Innovation Idea screen, select Evaluation System INES augment, enhance, maturate, refine Orientation? Concept Product Commercialization PDP concrete projectable combine several information and ideas sequential depending on eureka moments and time-staggered findings demand flexibility, agility, interdisciplinary collaboration, handling of “soft facts“ Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 efficiency oriented Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  26. 26. Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES INES: From Innovation Impulses and Ideas to Implementable Concepts Requirements to the Innovation Idea Evaluation System Innovation Ideas Search fields / Innovation Impulses  Innovation impulses / ideas are to be developed and evaluated stepwise  thereby the strategic and commercial value as well as technological dimensions (and an excitement factor) are to be assessed  resources are to be assigned only to the most attractive ideas  Adaptability to changing frame conditions  support time-staggered additional findings and augmenting ideas Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  27. 27. Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES INES as Advancement of a Stage-Gate Process Stage-Gate Process according to R. Cooper Idea Stage / Ideation/ Discovery Scoping / Preliminary Investigation Gate 1: Gate 2: Strat. alignment, prelimina ry techni-cal & market assessment, compet. diff. Market attractiveness, profit potential, USP, technical feasibility Business Case / Detailed Investigation Gate 3: Release for development Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Development Testing & Validation Gate 4: Gate 5: Review of project attractivity and compliance with specifications Full Production & Market Launch Release for commercialization and production Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  28. 28. Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES INES as Advancement of a Stage-Gate Process Stage-Gate Process according to R. Cooper Idea Stage / Ideation/ Discovery Scoping / Preliminary Investigation Business Case / Detailed Investigation Development Testing & Validation Full Production & Market Launch risk, uncertainty of the implementability costs/efforts in resources for the further development  Condideration of market assessments in parallel with technical feasibility  Traceability and consistency of the proceeding: Prescribed, multifunctional, parallel activities in each stage of the process  Transparency, objectivity,  Steerability of the process stages, designation of responsibitities,  Controlling, performance measuring (KPIs), and continuous improvement of each process stage possible  Systematic Go/Kill decisions at each gate avoid waste of resources on failing innovation projects Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  29. 29. Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES INES as Advancement of a Stage-Gate Process  Typically, many different ideas compete for limited resources  Collection of all ideas in the idea pool  Instead of just stop unprofitable, unattractive, failing innovation ideas at the gates, all resources are to be concentrated on the most attractive ideas  Rating + ranking instead of go / kill decisions based on absolute criteria Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Consequent Idea Screening # Ideas Idea Pool + Ranking instead of Go/Kill suboptimal INM: in the early stages waste of resources , later no capacity for implementation good INM: consequent screening and selection, implementation of the best ideas Time uncertainty effort of resources Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  30. 30. Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES INES as Advancement of a Stage-Gate Process Idea Pool + Ranking instead of Go/Kill Comparability despite different maturity levels  Typically, many different ideas compete for limited resources  Collection of all ideas in the idea pool  Instead of just stop unprofitable, unattractive, failing innovation ideas at the gates, all resources are to be concentrated on the most attractive ideas  Rating + ranking instead of go / kill decisions based on absolute criteria  Typically, competing innovation ideas have very different degrees of maturity (cf. Stage-Gate: Cross comparison of ideas only at the same gate possible)  Assessment according to a set of criteria with expected value and uncertainty (best case / worst case): SPINNER‘s INES Process  Registration of each innovation idea by an idea card  Collection of all idea cards in the idea pool  Determination of the most attractive idea in the pool  Increasing its maturity by further development of the idea regarding the criterion w/ the greatest uncertainty  Sorting into the ranked list of ideas in the pool with reevaluated attractiveness (and increased maturity level) Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014  Weighting of the evaluation criteria  Determination of the attractiveness from weighted expected values and the degree of maturity from weighted uncertainties  Updating of the assessments / re-evaluation after each development step Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  31. 31. Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES Idea Management: Steering and Prioritization under Fluctuating Conditions SPINNER‘s Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES Innovation Idea Evaluation System Idea card – registration and evaluation of ideas Pool of Ideas Idea 1 Idea 2 . . . Idea N Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  32. 32. Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES Idea Management: Steering and Prioritization under Fluctuating Conditions SPINNER‘s Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES Pool of Ideas Innovation Idea Evaluation System Contains the weighting factors for each criterion, strategic parameters, commercial frame data etc. Idea 1 Idea 2 . . . Idea N Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 frame condition parameters Frame conditions contain inter alia the PMM and iPMM for strategic idea evaluation EXEMPLAR Y REPRESEN -TATION Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  33. 33. Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES Idea Management: Steering and Prioritization under Fluctuating Conditions SPINNER‘s Innovation Idea Evaluation System INES Pool of Ideas Innovation Idea Evaluation System Contains the weighting factors for each criterion, strategic parameters, commercial frame data etc. frame condition parameters generates a ranked list of the innovation ideas Ideas Database Idea 1 Procedure for changing conditions Idea 2 . . .  Registration of the changed conditions in the appropriate file of frame condition parameters  Generating a new sorted list of innovation ideas, evaluated under the changed conditions → new prioritization  All innovation ideas always remain in the pool of ideas! (Exception: the evaluation revealed a fundamental Idea N Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 impossibility - but caution is required, as scientific and technological progress can overcome seeming impossibilities!) Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  34. 34. Structuring the “Fuzzy Front End of Innovation“ Summary Information on emerging and upcoming developments from Corporate Strategy to Innovation Demands: iPMM Future factors Innovation Ideas Impulses, from Future Factors to Innovation Impulses: Search Fields Concept from Impulses / Ideas to the Best Concepts: TIMELINES INES Product Commercialization PDP screen, select concrete augment, enhance, maturate, refine projectable combine several information and ideas sequential depending on eureka moments and time-staggered findings demand flexibility, agility, interdisciplinary collaboration, handling of “soft facts“ Front End of Innovation EMEA – Munich – Feb. 4-6, 2014 efficiency oriented Dr. Kai Numssen | SPINNER GmbH
  35. 35. Thank you for your attention! HIGH FREQUENCY PERFORMANCE WORLDWIDE Dr. Kai H. E. Numssen Leiter Innovationsmanagement Head of Innovation Management SPINNER GmbH Aiblinger Str. 30 83620 Westerham Tel.: Fax: E-Mail: Web: +49 (8063) 971-3486 +49 (8063) 971-3149 kai.numssen@spinner-group.com www.spinner-group.com LinkedIn: http://de.linkedin.com/pub/kai-numssen/68/19a/835 Xing: www.xing.com/profile/Kai_Numssen WWW.SPINNER-GROUP.COM

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