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KPMG GEC - Fueling the future

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KPMG's Gary Silberg, University of Washington's Don McKenzie, PG&E's Nick Stavropoulos and Woodside Energy's Mike Ulster discussed what the electrification of the automotive sector means for the energy sector during KPMG's Global Energy Conference.

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KPMG GEC - Fueling the future

  1. 1. 2018 Global Energy Conference General Session IV: Fueling the Future - What electrification of the automotive sector means for energy Brought to you by the KPMG Global Energy Institute www.kpmgglobalenergyconference.com
  2. 2. 2© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 2© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 Moderator and Panelists Moderator Gary Silberg National Sector Leader, Automotive KPMG LLP (U.S.) Panelist Don MacKenzie Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington Panelist Nick Stavropoulos President and Chief Operating Officer Pacific Gas & Electric Corporation Panelist Mike Utsler Executive Woodside Energy Ltd.
  3. 3. Islands of autonomy How autonomous vehicles will emerge in cities around the world and the massive opportunity and risks it creates for the energy market
  4. 4. 4© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 November 2012 November 2013 November 2014 November 2015 November 2016 Our journey
  5. 5. 5© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 The clockspeed of innovation is incredible! Reuters: SoftBank invests $2.25 billion in GM’s self-driving cars; shares soar (May 31, 2018) Reuters: Waymo to get more than 60,000 cars from Fiat Chrysler for robotaxis (May 31, 2018) The New York Times: Apple, Spurned by Others, Signs Deal With Volkswagen for Driverless Cars (May 23, 2018) Quartz: Driverless car startup Drive.ai is launching a ride-hailing service in Texas (May 7, 2018)
  6. 6. 6© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 The clockspeed of innovation is incredible! (continued) Automotive News: Pentagon challenges Uber, Waymo in race over self-driving vehicles (April 30, 2018) Fortune: Volkswagen and Didi Chuxing Have Teamed Up on a New Self-Driving Venture (April 30, 2018) TribLIVE: Aptiv, Lyft launch Las Vegas fleet of self-driving cars powered by Pittsburgh tech (May 2, 2018)
  7. 7. 7© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 The clockspeed of innovation is incredible! (continued) Automotive News: BMW will double self- driving car testing fleet despite U.S. fatality (March 21, 2018 @ 12:03pm) WIRED: WAYMO Expands it’s ROBO- FLEET WITH ELECTRIC JAGUAR SUVS (March 27, 2018, 6:03 pm) The Verge: Apple now has more self- driving test vehicles in California than Waymo (March 20, 2018, 1:59pm EDT) Automotive News/ Europe: VW, PSA plan to continue self-driving push (March 20, 2018, 15:24 CET
  8. 8. 8© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 The clockspeed of innovation is incredible! (continued) Reuters: Self-driving cars with 'remote' drivers could test on Calif roads in April: DMV (February 23, 2018) Bloomberg: Uber CEO Touts ‘Great’ Talks With Toyota CEO on Autonomous Cars (February 21, 2018, 8:24 PM CST) Greenville News: Greenville of the future: Self-driving cars, more affordable housing (February 20, 2018) The Verge: VW’s new concept is a fully self-driving car with no steering wheel (February 19, 2018)
  9. 9. 9© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 The clockspeed of innovation is incredible! (continued) Quartz: Waymo is readying a ride-hailing service that could directly compete with Uber (February 16, 2018) FutureCar.com: Waymo Names Atlanta as the Next Test City for its Self-Driving Minivans (Jan 22, 2018 /. 1:07 PM WST) WIRED: GM Will Launch Robocars without steering wheels next year (Jan 12, 2018 / 12:01 AM)
  10. 10. 10© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 New York Times: Self-Driving Uber Car Kills Pedestrian in Arizona, Where Robots Roam A woman was struck and killed on Sunday night by an autonomous car operated by Uber in Tempe, Ariz. It was believed to be the first pedestrian death associated with self-driving technology. Jalopnik: Toyota And Nutonomy Also Halt Autonomous Testing After Fatal Uber Crash After a crash with a self-driving Uber vehicle killed a pedestrian identified as 49-year-old Elaine Herzberg in Tempe, Arizona, the company said it would temporarily suspend testing of its autonomous cars in Tempe, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Toronto. Toyota and self- driving startup Nutonomy are doing the same, according to reports from Automotive News and Bloomberg. SOURCE: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/20/us/self-driving-uber-pedestrian-killed.html SOURCE: https://jalopnik.com/toyota-and-nutonomy-also-halt-autonomous-testing-after-1823942387
  11. 11. 11© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 Deep learning is a key enabler of fully autonomous vehicle because it empower cars to handle complex situations graphic Artificial Intelligence / Deep Learning – The power behind self driving cars Deep learning mimics the human brain… — Combines: - Computer-based multi-layer neural networks - Intensive training techniques - Large data sets — Transcends finite programmable constraints by focusing on getting computers to act without being explicitly programmed — Automates the building of algorithms that learn from data, improving results over time …Through artificial neural networks — A neural network is organized into layers, with each layer using the layer directly upstream as inputs. — Information is fed into the input layer. — Artificial neurons (nodes) within several “hidden layers” trigger when a certain characteristic within the input data is identified. — Nodes identify a characteristic by comparing a weighted total of identified upstream characteristics to a threshold value. — While upstream nodes identify basic characteristics, such as a gradient in a picture, downstream nodes are able to identify more complex objects, such as an eye. — Training the network involves adjusting the input weights between nodes so that it gives the desired response when presented with particular inputs. Deep neural networks allows computers to handle traditionally difficult tasks such as identifying animals, people, and objects in a picture, despite them having no set shape, color, etc. Input Layer Hidden layers Output Layers
  12. 12. 12© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 Miles accumulated by highway vs. a simulated virtual environment Simulated environmentReal highway environment 5 billion miles traveled! 25,000 simulation cars – April 2018 WaymoWaymo IRL self-driving cars 5 million miles traveled Operated on public roads from inception to February 2018 and in 25 metropolitan areas
  13. 13. 13© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 Our journey continues…
  14. 14. 14© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 Chicago – A half-sun
  15. 15. 15© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 Atlanta – A star
  16. 16. 16© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 Los Angeles-San Diego – A binary star megaregion
  17. 17. 17© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 Consumer transportation requirements vary significantly by island Chicago “A half-sun” Atlanta “A star” Los Angeles-San Diego “A binary star megaregion”
  18. 18. 18© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692
  19. 19. 19© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 Understanding personal mobility is critical to forecasting change Independenc e for seniors Safe independence for the kids Convenience of “my time” Parents can be everywhere at the same time 82% of people asked in focus groups would want mobility options for kids “I do not have to take keys away from dad” 79% of people asked in focus groups would want mobility options for seniors Note: (a) Discounted 25 percent from U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) total Vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) for 1995, 2001, 2009, 2014 (assumed to be commercial miles), (b) multiplied by NHTS occupancy rates applied 2009 rate to 2014 numbers. Source: U.S. BTS data, NHTS data, U.S. Census data, KPMG Analysis U.S. personal miles traveled (PMT) per capita 2014–2050 (Kmiles)
  20. 20. 20© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 Where every mile matters and has revenue potential
  21. 21. 21© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 150 100 50 0 350 200 250 300 0.2% 203020252015 2020 2035 2040 MillionVehicles Passenger Vehicle Car Parc Growth in the car parc declines as AV MaaS vehicles eliminate the need for a portion of personally owned vehicles Sales in the U.S. have likely peaked as a result 0 POV AV POV AV MaaS 0 10 20 15 5 0.4% 2030 20352015 2020 20402025 New Passenger Vehicle Sales MillionVehicles Non-autonomous vehicle sales fall, but are replaced by autonomous personal and MaaS vehicles
  22. 22. 22© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 © 2016 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Howdoyouseize theopportunity? 22
  23. 23. 23© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 23#KPMGGECCPE code: d692© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference Polling instructions For Polling, go on your app and select the “Polling/Eval” icon. Select the session that you are in and the polling questions will appear.
  24. 24. 24© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 24© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 Polling question #1 If you are able to “push a button” to hail a driverless car (think Uber type robo-taxi service) – would it matter to you if that vehicle was a pure battery electric? a) No. As long as I’m not driving, I do not care assuming the thing does not crash. b) Yes. I would still have range anxiety
  25. 25. 25© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 Polling question #1 - Results
  26. 26. 26© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 26© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 Question and Answer Moderator Gary Silberg National Sector Leader, Automotive KPMG LLP (U.S.) @slfdriveSilberg Panelist Don MacKenzie Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington @DonMacKenzie9 Panelist Nick Stavropoulos President and Chief Operating Officer Pacific Gas & Electric Corporation @PGE4Me Panelist Mike Utsler Executive Woodside Energy Ltd. @WoodsideEnergy
  27. 27. 27© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 27© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 Polling question #2 Should it be the role of the Federal or State government to subsidize alternative powertrains and infrastructure (electric, fuel cells etc..)? a) No. Why should they get to pick “winners”? Last time I checked people buying $100,000 Teslas do not need a tax break. b) Yes. Absolutely, normal market forces are not working to protect our environment, and we need these incentives to reduce climate change.
  28. 28. 28© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 Polling question #2 - Results
  29. 29. 29© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 29© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 Question and Answer Moderator Gary Silberg National Sector Leader, Automotive KPMG LLP (U.S.) @slfdriveSilberg Panelist Don MacKenzie Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington @DonMacKenzie9 Panelist Nick Stavropoulos President and Chief Operating Officer Pacific Gas & Electric Corporation @PGE4Me Panelist Mike Utsler Executive Woodside Energy Ltd. @WoodsideEnergy
  30. 30. 30© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 30© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. © 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGECCPE code: d692 CPE Check In – Session PIN code: d692 For CPE credit, go on your app and select the “CPE Check In” icon. Type in the session PIN code above and submit.
  31. 31. © 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. kpmg.com/socialmedia Thank you

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