Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

KPMG 2018 Global Energy Conference

162 views

Published on

KPMG's 16th Annual Global Energy Conference which took place on 6/6-7 in Houston provided attendees insights on the current issues and emerging challenges that are shaping the next generation of energy.

Published in: Science
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

KPMG 2018 Global Energy Conference

  1. 1. 2018GlobalEnergyConference Powering the future with the next generation of energy Brought to you by the KPMG Global Energy Institute www.kpmgglobalenergyconference.com
  2. 2. Regina Mayor Global Sector Head and the U.S. National Sector Leader of Energy and Natural Resources KPMG (U.S.)
  3. 3. 2018GlobalEnergyConference Powering the future with the next generation of energy
  4. 4. 4© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGEC 4© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 #KPMGGEC Overall confidence has increased since our last Global Energy Conference 90% CEOs confident in their company’s growth prospects 67% CEOs confident in growth of the global economy 2018 Global Energy Conference © 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 #KPMGGEC Source: 2018 KPMG CEO Survey, Wall Street Journal -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Dow Jones NYSE Energy Index Dow Jones +18% NYSE Energy Index +20%
  5. 5. 5© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGEC 5© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC © 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 #KPMGGEC There are positive signals for energy 723 763 765 760 749 729 749 742 765 800 809 861 185 189 189 183 187 169 180 182 181 181 194 195 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Oil Gas 2018 Global Energy Conference © 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 #KPMGGEC Source: Baker Hughes, EIA 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 WTI Brent $50 $80 908 1140
  6. 6. But there is more to the story…
  7. 7. …we see policy reversals, many through tweet
  8. 8. 8© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGEC There is unprecedented change within the administration 2018 Global Energy Conference © 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 #KPMGGEC Communications Director Sean Spicer Secretary of State Rex Tillerson Mike Pompeo (Current) Michael Dubke Anthony Scaramucci Hope Hicks Trump (current) National Security Advisor Michael Flynn H.R. McMaster John Bolton (current) Chief of Staff Reince Priebus John Kelly (current) Press Secretary Sean Spicer Sarah Huckabee Sanders (current) FBI Director James Comey Christopher Wray (current)
  9. 9. 9© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGEC There is unprecedented change within the administration 2018 Global Energy Conference © 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 #KPMGGEC Communications Director Sean Spicer Secretary of State Rex Tillerson Mike Pompeo (Current) Michael Dubke Anthony Scaramucci Hope Hicks Trump (current) National Security Advisor Michael Flynn H.R. McMaster John Bolton (current) Chief of Staff Reince Priebus John Kelly (current) Press Secretary Sean Spicer FBI Director James Comey Christopher Wray (current) Melissa McCarthy (as Sean Spicer)
  10. 10. 10© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGEC We once relied more heavily on mainstream media sources © 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGEC ABC Associated Press BBC Bloomberg CBS CNBC CNN Economist Fox News MSNBC NBC New York Times Reuters USA Today Wall Street Journal Washington Post
  11. 11. 11© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGEC © 2017 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 623964 11 © 2017 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 623964 Sources of content have increased which allow other influences into the mix Facebook Twitter LinkedIn BuzzFeed Google News Reddit YouTube Instagram Snapchat WhatsApp 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGEC
  12. 12. Our keynotes will give us their perspectives Soledad O’Brien Award-winning journalist, documentarian, news anchor, and producer Honorable George J. Mitchell Former U.S. Senate majority leader (1989–1995) The Next Big News Story Moving Forward in a G-Zero World
  13. 13. 13© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGEC 13© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 #KPMGGEC Our agenda has been developed to get us thinking Energy’s Role in the Global Economy from Production to Consumption Solving the Multigenerational Workforce Puzzle Fueling the Future – What electrification of the automotive sector means for energy 2018 Global Energy Conference General Sessions
  14. 14. 14© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGEC 14© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 #KPMGGEC Our breakout sessions will dive into a range of topics The Changing Role of National Oil Companies – How they will shape the global energy landscape Accelerating Sustainable Energy Innovation Security Transformation – Building resilience against cyber threats The Energy Transition – How Fossil Fuel Companies Transform in the “Peak Demand” Scenario Architecting the Future of Energy - How Grid Edge technologies are transforming distributed generation Tax Reform Executive Edition - Highlights of the New Tax Law and the impact on the Global Energy Industry 2018 Global Energy Conference
  15. 15. 15© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGEC 15© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 #KPMGGEC Stay connected and download the app View the Agenda & Attendees Read the latest Industry Insights Follow on Twitter #KPMGGEC Ask a question Answer Polling Questions Evaluate Sessions 2018 Global Energy Conference
  16. 16. 16© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGEC 16© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC © 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 #KPMGGEC Polling question… What do you believe the WTI Crude price will be at the end of 2018? A. <$50 B. $50-$59 C. $60-$69 D. $70-$79 E. $80-$89 F. $90-$100 G. >$100 © 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 #KPMGGEC
  17. 17. 17© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference #KPMGGEC 17© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC © 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 #KPMGGEC Polling question - Results © 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 #KPMGGEC
  18. 18. 2018 Global Energy Conference General Session I: Energy's Role in the Global Economy from Production to Consumption Brought to you by the KPMG Global Energy Institute www.kpmgglobalenergyconference.com
  19. 19. 2018GlobalEnergyConference Powering the future with the next generation of energy Brought to you by the KPMG Global Energy Institute www.kpmgglobalenergyconference.com
  20. 20. 20© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC 20© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Moderator and Panelists Moderator Regina Mayor Global Sector Head and the U.S. National Sector Leader of Energy and Natural Resources KPMG LLP (U.S.) Panelist John Gimigliano Principal in Charge, Federal Legislative and Regulatory Services KPMG LLP (U.S.) Panelist Richard Ellings President The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) Panelist Constance Hunter Chief Economist KPMG LLP (U.S.)
  21. 21. Powering the Future with the Next Generation of Energy Constance Hunter, Chief Economist
  22. 22. 22© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Global growth synchronized and wide spread Note: 2017, 2018, 2019 estimates are the OECD forecast from Nov. 2017 Source: KPMG Economics, WSJ, OECD Economic Outlook Nov 2017 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Growth prospects of major economies Number of countries Contraction Slowing Growth Accelerating Growth OECD forecast
  23. 23. 23© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Oil prices rise despite scant OPEC production cuts $10 $30 $50 $70 $90 $110 $130 $150 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $/bbl Thousandbbl/day OPEC Output and Crude oil prices out of alignment OPEC Output (LHS) Crude Oil Price (RHS) Source: KPMG Economics, Bloomberg LLP
  24. 24. 24© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Demand side of the equations shifting to Asia
  25. 25. 25© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Note: PMI diffusion index, Annual average– above 50 indicates growth (in green) and below 50 indicates contraction (in red), non-reporting in grey Source: KPMG Economics, IHS Markit, Haver Analytics 80% of reporting countries growing 2014
  26. 26. 26© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC 61% of reporting countries growing 2015 Note: PMI diffusion index, Annual average– above 50 indicates growth (in green) and below 50 indicates contraction (in red), non-reporting in grey Source: KPMG Economics, IHS Markit, Haver Analytics
  27. 27. 27© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC 72% of reporting countries growing 2016 Note: PMI diffusion index, Annual average– above 50 indicates growth (in green) and below 50 indicates contraction (in red), non-reporting in grey Source: KPMG Economics, IHS Markit, Haver Analytics
  28. 28. 28© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC 84% of reporting countries growing 2017 Note: PMI diffusion index, Annual average– above 50 indicates growth (in green) and below 50 indicates contraction (in red), non-reporting in grey Source: KPMG Economics, IHS Markit, Haver Analytics
  29. 29. 29© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC 88% of reporting countries growing 2018 YTD Note: PMI diffusion index, Annual average– above 50 indicates growth (in green) and below 50 indicates contraction (in red), non-reporting in grey Source: KPMG Economics, IHS Markit, Haver Analytics
  30. 30. 30© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC United States is now world’s largest liquids producer 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% Share of Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Production Top 3 Producers, % of Global bbl/day Saudi Arabia Russia United States Source: KPMG Economics, Energy Information Agency
  31. 31. 31© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Transportation and manufacturing most energy intensive Source: KPMG Economics, IEA Services & Other 20% Manufacturing 27% Transport 34% Residential 19% Mining 6% Services 14% Ferrous Metals 5% Passenger Cars 20% Residential Space Heating 10% Largest end uses by Sector % of final energy consumption
  32. 32. 32© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Global energy intensity of GDP is falling 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 World High Income Developing East Asia & Pacific Energy Intensity Level of Primary Energy MJ/$2011 PPP GDP 1990 2015 Source: KPMG Economics, World Bank, Haver Analytics
  33. 33. 33© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Asia – Greatest demand and greatest efficiency potential -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 Y/Y%Y/Y% Asia**: Growth and Energy Consumption Year to Year - % Change Real GDP Energy Consumption *Includes China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Non-OECD Asia **Includes China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea Source: KPMG Economics, Energy Information Agency, OECD 150 200 250 300 350 400 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Asia*: Energy Consumption Quad Btu
  34. 34. 34© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 World Primary Energy Consumption By Share and Fuel Type Oil Coal Gas Hydro Renewables Nuclear Source: KPMG Economics, BP 2018 Energy Outlook Traditional forecasts assume linear projections
  35. 35. 35© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Are renewables at a tipping point? Percentrenewables Time Tipping point
  36. 36. 36© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC —Energy intensity continues to decline with technology improvements —Energy mix likely to be very different a decade from now —Oil price and world GDP likely to decouple over the next decade —Geopolitics will be less of a concern as energy intensity falls and if renewables gain traction Concluding thoughts
  37. 37. 37© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Click to edit Master title style ENERGY & GEOPOLITICS KPMG Global Energy Conference Houston, TX | June 2018 Richard Ellings President The National Bureau of Asian Research Source: iStock
  38. 38. 38© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution dedicated to informing and strengthening policy. NBR conducts advanced independent research on strategic, political, economic, globalization, health, and energy issues affecting U.S. relations with Asia.
  39. 39. The Global Economy by GDP (Current Prices) Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF). Values include estimates. Values are based upon GDP in national currency converted to U.S. dollars using market exchange rates (yearly average). The Global Economy by GDP (Current Prices)
  40. 40. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF). Values include estimates. Expressed in percent of world GDP in PPP dollars. The Global Economy by GDP (PPP)The Global Economy by GDP (PPP)
  41. 41. Sources: Pacific Energy Summit; BP Energy Outlook 2018; World Energy Outlook 2017 • The Asia-Pacific has emerged as the most dynamic region in the world, and rising economic prosperity is anticipated to fuel additional demand for energy. • Over the next two decades, developing Asia will account for two-thirds of global energy demand growth. China and India alone account for half of global growth. • In contrast, European demand will shrink dramatically. Demand from the United States and Japan will also shrink. • By 2035, Asia will account for one-half of total global energy consumption. • The region will also be the largest importer of energy. • “By 2040… almost 30% of the oil traded internationally is making its way towards China, and likewise almost one-quarter of the gas traded over long distances” (IEA). Asia’s Rise in Global Markets
  42. 42. Electricity Demand by Selected Region (Terawatt Hours)
  43. 43. INDEX FOR EVALUATING ENERGY SECURITY THE VIEW FROM JAPAN’S MINISTRY OF ECONOMY, TRADE AND INDUSTRY A. The extent to which a domestic, national environment is in place that allows fuel to be stably supplied B. The degree to which stable fuel procurement is possible in the face of national, geopolitical, and other contingencies that impact supplies C. Specific variables: • Past production record of supplier country • Conflict frequency of supplier country • Disruption risk of transport routes • Overall portfolio of the importing country - diversification of suppliers, transportation routes and fuel mix
  44. 44. Source: Maritime Awareness Project Visualizing Trade in Asia: Port Container and Maritime Vessel Traffic
  45. 45. Source: Maritime Awareness Project Submarine Data Cables
  46. 46. • Unipolar world of 1990s replaced by skewed, multi-polar world today • Today’s major poles are the U.S. and China, but with many middle powers • Differing ambitions and rates of growth among nations produce ambiguities, fear, coalition behavior, and changing calculations to either balance against or bandwagon with especially China or Russia • Chances of regional instability and global war are expanding • Unnatural strategic partners possible such as China and Russia or North Korea and the United States • U.S. leadership is key to navigating this period of history • Regardless of trends in energy intensity or renewables, geo-politics will be more important to the world economy and energy markets in the decade ahead Concluding Thoughts
  47. 47. Stay informed with analysis from our network of experts www.NBR.org Join the NBR community Twitter: @NBRnews Facebook: facebook.com/NBRnews
  48. 48. Tax Reform – Highlights and Observations John Gimigliano, Principal in Charge
  49. 49. 49© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Notices The following information is not intended to be “written advice concerning one or more Federal tax matters” subject to the requirements of section 10.37(a)(2) of Treasury Department Circular 230. The information contained herein is of a general nature and based on authorities that are subject to change. Applicability of the information to specific situations should be determined through consultation with your tax adviser.
  50. 50. 50© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC —On December 22, 2017, President Trump signed H.R. 1 into law. —The new law completes a long process in pursuit of tax reform. —Most of the new law was effective on January 1, 2018, though some provisions have delayed (or other) effective dates. —The massive bill cuts taxes by $5.5 trillion, increase taxes by more than $4 trillion, and reflects a net tax cut of $1.5 trillion. —The bill will almost certainly be subject to changes, corrections, and regulatory interpretation over the coming years. Background on tax reform
  51. 51. 51© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Tax reform: Big even by Washington standards How big is 10 trillion? 10 million seconds = 10 billion seconds = 10 trillion seconds = 116 days 317 years 317,000 years
  52. 52. 52© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC U.S. and other OECD statutory corporate tax rates (2017) *Basic, top corporate income tax rate levied by central government. Local-level taxes and surtaxes are not included. Source: KPMG International, Tax Rates Online, 2017 data, https://home.kpmg.com/xx/en/home/services/tax/tax-tools-and-resources/tax-rates-online.html 12.50% 15.00% 15.00% 19.00% 20.00% 22.00% 24.00% 25.00% 30.00% 30.86% 33.33% 35.00% Ireland Canada Germany United Kingdom Turkey Korea, Republic of Italy Spain Australia Japan France United States Corporate income tax rates* in select OECD countries
  53. 53. 53© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC U.S. and other OECD statutory corporate tax rates (2018) *Basic, top corporate income tax rate levied by central government. Local-level taxes and surtaxes are not included. Source: KPMG International, Tax Rates Online, 2017 data, https://home.kpmg.com/xx/en/home/services/tax/tax-tools-and-resources/tax-rates-online.html 12.50% 15.00% 15.00% 19.00% 20.00% 21.00% 22.00% 24.00% 25.00% 30.00% 30.86% 33.33% 35.00% Ireland Canada Germany United Kingdom Turkey United States Korea, Republic of Italy Spain Australia Japan France United States Corporate income tax rates* in select OECD countries
  54. 54. 54© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Highlights of the new law Individual: Rates and brackets Standard deduction Itemized deductions Estate tax Passthroughs: New 20% deduction regime Losses limited Carried interest rule Corporate: Rate reduction Expensing NOL limitation Interest limitation Corporate AMT repeal International: Participation exemption system Mandatory repatriation Minimum tax BEAT H.R.1
  55. 55. 55© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Breakdown as presented by Congress: Individuals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Net tax cut: $1,126.6 Businesses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Net tax cut: $ 653.8 International . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Net tax increase: $ 324.4 Deficit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Net increase: $1,456.0 Accounting for reform (in $billions/over 10 years*) *estimates on this and following pages based on JCT conventional scores, not taking into account estimated growth in GDP
  56. 56. 56© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC The Politics of the House 2018 191 239 Democrats Republicans (Note: five seats currently vacant due to recent resignations)
  57. 57. 57© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC The Politics of the Senate 2018 49 51 Democrats Republicans
  58. 58. 58© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Elections: United States Senate 2018 Democratic incumbent Republican incumbent Democratic incumbent/ Trump won Note that both MN seats will be in cycle due to a special election pursuant to Senator Franken’s retirement No election Independent incumbent
  59. 59. 59© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGECCPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC 59© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference Polling instructions For Polling, go on your app and select the “Polling/Eval” icon. Select the session that you are in and the polling questions will appear.
  60. 60. 60© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC 60© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Polling question #1 Do you think the summit with North Korea will actually take place next week? a) Yes, but it will be called off at least once more in the meantime b) No, a late night tweet will scuttle the efforts c) Maybe, but who cares? It is as over hyped as the Royal Wedding
  61. 61. 61© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Polling question #1 – Results
  62. 62. 62© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC 62© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Question and Answer Moderator Regina Mayor Global Sector Head and the U.S. National Sector Leader of Energy and Natural Resources KPMG LLP (U.S.) @Regina_Mayor Panelist John Gimigliano Principal in Charge, Federal Legislative and Regulatory Services KPMG LLP (U.S.) @johngimigliano Panelist Richard Ellings President The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) Panelist Constance Hunter Chief Economist KPMG LLP (U.S.) @ConstanceHunter
  63. 63. 63© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC 63© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Polling question #2 How do you think U.S. companies will use their tax refunds? a) Increase U.S. investment b) Increase global investment c) Increase worker wages d) Repurchase shares e) All of the above f) None of the above
  64. 64. 64© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Polling question #2 - Results
  65. 65. 65© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC 65© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC Question and Answer Moderator Regina Mayor Global Sector Head and the U.S. National Sector Leader of Energy and Natural Resources KPMG LLP (U.S.) @Regina_Mayor Panelist John Gimigliano Principal in Charge, Federal Legislative and Regulatory Services KPMG LLP (U.S.) @johngimigliano Panelist Richard Ellings President The National Bureau of Asian Research Panelist Constance Hunter Chief Economist KPMG LLP (U.S.) @ConstanceHunter
  66. 66. 66© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC 66© 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. © 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 2018 Global Energy Conference CPE code: ccf6 #KPMGGEC CPE Check In – Session PIN code: ccf6 For CPE credit, go on your app and select the “CPE Check In” icon. Type in the session PIN code above and submit.
  67. 67. © 2018 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. NDPPS 773491 The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. kpmg.com/socialmedia Thank you

×