The State Of Food Insecurity In The World 2003

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Published in 2003 by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its boundaries, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product for education or other non-commercial purposes are authorized without any prior written permission from the copyright holders provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without written permission of the copyright holders. Applications for such permission should be addressed to the Chief, Publishing Management Service, Information Division, FAO, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy, or by e-mail to copyright@fao.org

© FAO 2003

ISBN 92-5-104986-6

Printed in Italy

Photographs From left to right on cover: PS Deora/UNEP/B; UNEP/MA Walters/Topham; Romy Hitosis/UNEP/B

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The State Of Food Insecurity In The World 2003

  1. 1. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 monitoring progress towards the World Food Summit and Millennium Development Goals
  2. 2. Acknowledgements The following FAO staff provided Training Division (SD); Marcela Villarreal, This fifth edition of The State of Food technical contributions: Josef Gender and Population Division (SD); Insecurity in the World (SOFI) was Schmidhuber, Global Perspectives Study Andrew MacMillan, Field Operations prepared as a collaborative effort within Unit (ES); Haluk Kasnakoglu, Edward Division (TC); Naoki Minamiguchi, FAO led by the Economic and Social Gillin, Ricardo Sibrian, Loganaden Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific. Department (ES). Naiken (consultant), Seevalingum Ramasawmy, Cinzia Cerri, Marianna The key statistics on food consumption Overall leadership was provided by Campeanu and Vincent Ngendakumana, and the estimates and analysis on Hartwig de Haen, Assistant Director- Statistics Division (ES); Jean-Marc undernourishment used in SOFI 2003 General, ES, assisted by Ali Arslan Faurès and Karen Frenken, Land and were produced by the Basic Data Branch Gurkan, Chief of the Basic Foodstuffs Water Development Division (AG); and the Statistical Analysis Service of the Service (ESCB), who served as the chair Sumiter Broca, Benjamin Davis, Annelies FAO Statistics Division respectively. of the core technical team. Valuable Deuss, Amdetsion Gebre-Michael, conceptual and editorial assistance was Guenter Hemrich, Anna Carla Lopez, FAO extends special thanks to the team provided by Andrew Marx of Prabhu Pingali, Jakob Skoet and Kostas of Banson, Cambridge, UK, for design, KnowledgeView Ltd. Stamoulis, Agricultural and Development layout, editorial support and preparation Economics Division (ES); William Clay, of graphic material. Other members of the core technical Irela Mazar and Guy Nantel, Nutrition team in the ES Department were: Jelle Division (ES); Maarten Immink and Jenny The Editorial Production and Design Bruinsma, Global Perspectives Study Riches, FIVIMS Coordination Unit (ES); Group of the Information Division, GI, Unit; Randy Stringer, Agricultural and Shukri Ahmed, Michael Cherlet, Merritt was responsible for language editing Development Economics Division; Cluff, Cheng Fang, Henri Josserand, services, editorial quality control and Prakash Shetty, Nutrition Division; Suffyan Koroma, Mwita Rukandema, desktop publishing. Translations were Jorge Mernies, Statistics Division; and Harmon Thomas and Yanyun Li, provided by the Translation Group of the Nicholas Hughes, ES Department Commodities and Trade Division (ES); Conference, Council and Protocol Affairs Programme Coordinator. Ergin Ataman, Research, Extension and Division, GI. Published in 2003 by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy The designations employed and the presentation of the material Applications for such permission should be addressed to the in this information product do not imply the expression of any Chief, Publishing Management Service, Information Division, opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture FAO, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy or by Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal or e-mail to copyright@fao.org. development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its boundaries, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or © FAO 2003 boundaries. ISBN 92-5-104986-6 All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product for education or other non- Printed in Italy commercial purposes are authorized without any prior written permission from the copyright holders provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information Photographs product for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited As cover (left to right): PS Deora/UNEP/B; UNEP/MA Walters/ without written permission of the copyright holders. Topham; Romy Hitosis/UNEP/B.
  3. 3. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 monitoring progress towards the World Food Summit and Millennium Development Goals
  4. 4. About this report his fifth edition of The State of Summit (WFS) in 1996 – to reduce that contains a special feature on international T Food Insecurity in the World (SOFI) provides the latest esti- mates of the number of chroni- cally hungry people in the world and reports on global and national efforts to number to half the level reported at the time of the Summit by the year 2015. The report is divided into four main sections. The first, Undernourish- ment around the world, analyses the trade. The third, Towards the Summit commitments, discusses approaches to fulfilling the commitments in the WFS Plan of Action. Finally, tables provide detailed indicators for developing coun- reach the goal set by the World Food latest data on hunger. The second tries and countries in transition. Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping Systems On behalf of the Inter-Agency Working Group on FIVIMS IAWG-FIVIMS membership (IAWG-FIVIMS), I commend FAO on the 2003 edition of The Bilateral aid and technical agencies State of Food Insecurity in the World. This report has Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) justifiably become a flagship report in the food security arena. Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) Each year it clearly lays out how far we have come in achieving EuropeAid Co-operation Office (EuropeAid) global food security and how far we still have to travel. German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID) Since FIVIMS was created in 1997 we have seen the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) emergence of the Millennium Development Goals process, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) the country Poverty Reduction Strategy papers and a new United Nations and Bretton Woods agencies emphasis on the progressive realization of the right to food, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) coupled with an increasingly shared vision of the causes International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) of food insecurity and vulnerability within a livelihood International Labour Organization (ILO) United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) framework. Recognizing these changes, the FIVIMS Initiative Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) is currently examining what it has achieved and its strategic United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) priorities for going forward. The inter-agency nature of United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) FIVIMS represents one of our greatest strengths – the ability United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) to coordinate information activities and to share relevant World Bank (WB) experiences, approaches and methodologies. Building on a World Food Programme (WFP) collaborative assessment of our past activities, and World Health Organization (WHO) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) consultations with many stakeholders, we will formulate a United Nations System Standing Committee on Nutrition (SCN) new, forward-looking strategic plan. I look forward to sharing the results of the assessment and strategic planning in the International agricultural research organizations Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) 2004 issue of SOFI. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) I encourage all readers of SOFI to translate information International Service for National Agricultural Research (ISNAR) into action. Use this report to shine a spotlight on food International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) insecurity and hunger; mobilize resources and political will in International non-governmental organizations your constituency – global, national, and local – to meet the CARE challenge. We must all play our part, and on behalf of FIVIMS Helen Keller International (HKI) The Rockefeller Foundation we commit ourselves to work in partnership with you to elimi- Save the Children Fund UK (SCFUK) nate the scourge of hunger from our planet once and for all. World Resources Institute (WRI) Regional organizations Lynn R Brown (World Bank) Southern African Development Community (SADC) Chair, IAWG-FIVIMS Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) 2 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003
  5. 5. Contents 4 Foreword Towards the World Food Summit target 6 Undernourishment around the world 6 Counting the hungry: latest estimates 8 Counting the hungry: recent trends in developing countries and countries in transition 10 Food insecurity and HIV/AIDS: when short-term emergencies intersect a long-wave crisis 12 Water and food security 14 Hunger hotspots 16 Special feature – International trade and food security 16 Trade and food security: the importance of agriculture and agricultural trade in developing countries 18 Trade and food security: does trade openness harm food security? 20 Trade and food security: issues of the Doha Round and beyond 22 Towards the World Food Summit commitments 22 Acting to combat hunger 24 Beyond irrigation: the multiple uses of water for improving both diets and incomes 26 Mapping poverty and hunger to help wipe them off the map 28 Identifying the keys to sustainable nutrition programmes 30 The way ahead: mobilizing commitment and action to combat hunger 31 Tables The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 3
  6. 6. Foreword Towards the World Food Summit target F IRST SOME GOOD NEWS. FAO’s specifically by more rapid growth in their development goals. All of these goals latest estimates show that a agricultural sectors. They also exhibited are interconnected through the fatal number of countries have reduced slower population growth, lower levels nexus of poverty and social exclusion. hunger steadily since the World Food of HIV infection and higher ranking in the Every one of them deserves and Summit (WFS) baseline period of UNDP’s Human Development Index. demands our support. But we must 1990–1992. In 19 countries, the number These findings are consistent with also have the vision and the courage to of chronically hungry people declined by previous analyses that helped shape set priorities, recognizing that lack of over 80 million between 1990–1992 and the WFS Plan of Action and the anti- adequate food threatens people’s very 1999–2001. hunger initiative put forward by FAO existence and cripples their ability The list of successful countries spans at the time of the World Food Summit: both to benefit from opportunities for all developing regions, with one country five years later. They highlight the education, employment and political in the Near East, five in Asia and the importance of a few key building blocks participation and to contribute to eco- Pacific, six in Latin America and the in the foundation for improving food nomic and social development. Caribbean and seven in Sub-Saharan security – rapid economic growth, better This brings us back to the need for Africa. It includes both large and rela- than average growth in the agricultural political will. And it also brings us to tively prosperous countries like Brazil sector and effective social safety nets to more of the good news in this year’s and China, where levels of under- ensure that those who cannot produce report. For if we must report setbacks nourishment were moderate at the or buy adequate food still get enough in reducing hunger, we can also report outset, and smaller countries where to eat. that we have seen many encouraging hunger was more widespread, such as If the latest data tend to confirm our signs of growing commitment to the Chad, Guinea, Namibia and Sri Lanka. understanding of factors that contribute fight against hunger. Now the bad news. Unfortunately, this to food security, they also confront us In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula is not the situation in most other with another difficult question: if we da Silva has pledged to eradicate hunger countries. Across the developing world already know the basic parameters of by the end of his four-year term. And he as a whole, an estimated 798 million what needs to be done, why have we has backed up the pledge by launching people were undernourished in 1999– allowed hundreds of millions of people the comprehensive Fome Zero (Zero 2001, only 19 million fewer than during to go hungry in a world that produces Hunger) Project. the WFS baseline period. Worse yet, it more than enough food for every Over the past year, more than 20 appears that the number of under- woman, man and child? other countries have asked FAO to help nourished people in the developing Bluntly stated, the problem is not so them design and carry out anti-hunger world is no longer falling but climbing. much a lack of food as a lack of political programmes. Many of these countries During the first half of the 1990s, the will. The vast majority of the world’s are relying entirely on their own re- number of chronically hungry people hungry people live in rural areas of the sources and initiative to achieve the WFS decreased by 37 million. Since 1995– developing world, far from the levers of goal within their own borders. Some 1997, however, the number has in- political power and beyond the range have committed themselves to more creased by over 18 million. of vision of the media and the public in ambitious goals. The government of We must ask ourselves why this has developed countries. Except when war Sierra Leone, for example, has set a bold happened. Preliminary analysis does or a natural calamity briefly focuses target of eliminating hunger by the year not permit any definitive answers to that global attention and compassion, little is 2007. At their recent summit in Maputo, question. But closer examination does said and less is done to put an end to the Mozambique, the heads of state of the identify several factors that differentiate suffering of a “continent of the hungry” African Union unanimously pledged to the successful countries from those that whose 798 million people outnumber increase agriculture’s share of public suffered setbacks. the population of either Latin America or expenditures to at least 10 percent In general, countries that succeeded sub-Saharan Africa. within the next five years. in reducing hunger were characterized Too often, eliminating hunger has The fact that these countries have by more rapid economic growth and been relegated to a shopping list of made eradicating hunger a top priority 4 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003
  7. 7. Number of undernourished in the developing world: observed and projected ranges compared with the World Food Summit target Millions Millions 1 000 1 000 900 900 800 800 Range around the point FAO estimates of the number estimates reported at the World Food Summit of undernourished people in the world are necessarily based on 700 Business imperfect information. As better data as usual Range for the year of the World Food Summit (1996) become available, the estimates are revised retrospectively. Range estimates therefore 600 provide a more reliable illustration of the number of Range around the “business as usual” projection in World undernourished over time. The estimated range for agriculture: towards 2015/2030 past, projected and target paths is based on a range of 5 percent above and below the past, projected and target 500 numbers considered by the World Food Summit in 1996. Within On track World Food Summit target these ranges, the most recently calculated point estimates are shown. The graph refers to developing countries only, because FAO does not 400 have estimates of the undernourished in developed countries for the Point estimates prepared in 2003 reference period (1990–1992) and earlier years. 300 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 is encouraging. The way they are going active support and participations of commitment, based not on a plea for about it is even more so. unions, popular associations, non- charity but on a demand for justice and The strategy adopted by Brazil’s governmental organizations, schools, an appeal to the self-interest of almost Fome Zero incorporates many of the universities, churches and companies. everyone, recognizing that the suffering elements in the anti-hunger initiative. A growing number of countries are of 800 million hungry people represents Most importantly, it emphasizes a two- showing the way, mustering the political not only an unconscionable tragedy pronged attack on hunger that combines will and the resources to attack the but a threat to economic growth and emergency interventions to give hungry problem of hunger head on. Now it is political stability on a global scale. people access to food with development time for the international community to Hunger cannot wait. initiatives to increase employment, in- follow through on the commitments comes and food production in impover- made at the World Food Summit. ished communities. Fome Zero has also The task ahead of us is to create an forged a broad and committed national international Alliance against Hunger Jacques Diouf alliance against hunger, engaging the that will mobilize national and global FAO Director-General The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 5
  8. 8. Undernourishment around the world Counting the hungry: latest estimates AO’S LATEST ESTIMATES signal a F setback in the war against hunger. The number of chronically hungry people in developing countries declined Improving the FAO estimate of prevalence of undernourishment In estimating the prevalence of under- has reinforced its activities in several by only 19 million between the World Food nourishment FAO takes into account the areas, including: Summit (WFS) baseline period of 1990– amount of food available per person • expanding use of the FAO methodology 1992 and 1999–2001. This means that the nationally and the extent of inequality in to measure the extent of food depri- WFS goal of reducing the number of access to food. vation at subnational levels, such as undernourished people by half by the year An International Scientific Symposium urban and rural areas; 2015 can now be reached only if annual on Measurement of Food Deprivation • reconciling estimates of national food reductions can be accelerated to 26 million and Undernutrition held in 2002 consumption from food balance sheets per year, more than 12 times the pace of concluded that the method used by FAO and household surveys; 2.1 million per year achieved to date. is the only way currently available to • analysing trends in the inequality of Analysis of more recent trends makes arrive at global and regional estimates access to food; the prospects look even bleaker. From of the prevalence of undernourishment. • reviewing the minimum energy require- 1995–1997 to 1999–2001 the number of The Symposium also called for efforts ments used to define food deprivation undernourished actually increased by 18 to improve both the data and the in light of new recommendations from million (see page 8 for details and analysis). analytical approach used to derive these an FAO/WHO/UNU Expert consultation; Worldwide, FAO estimates that 842 estimates. and million people were undernourished in In response to the Symposium’s re- • integrating analysis of trends in food 1999–2001. This includes 10 million in the commendations, FAO’s Statistics Division deprivation and nutritional status. industrialized countries, 34 million in countries in transition and 798 million in developing countries. At the regional level, These numbers and trends are domi- has been reduced. At the same time, India the numbers of undernourished were nated by progress and setbacks in a few has shifted into reverse. After seeing a reduced in Asia and the Pacific and in Latin large countries. China alone has reduced decline of 20 million in the number of America and the Caribbean. In contrast, the number of hungry people by 58 million undernourished between 1990–1992 and the numbers continue to rise in Sub- since the World Food Summit baseline 1995–1997, the number of hungry people in Saharan Africa and in the Near East and period. But progress in China has slowed India increased by 19 million over the North Africa. as the prevalence of undernourishment following four years. Proportions of undernourished in developing countries, 1990–1992 and 1999–2001 2.5% undernourished 2.5–4% undernourished 5–19% undernourished 80 60 40 20 0 United Arab Emirates Tunisia Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Argentina Rep. of Korea Hong Kong SAR of China Malaysia Turkey Lebanon Saudi Arabia Egypt Uruguay Syrian Arab Rep. Kuwait Chile Ecuador Mauritius Mexico Iran, Islamic Rep. of Trinidad and Tobago Algeria Costa Rica Jordan Indonesia Myanmar Gabon Morocco Namibia Nigeria Brazil Jamaica Mauritania China* Suriname Cuba Peru Swaziland Ghana Colombia Paraguay El Salvador Côte d'Ivoire Venezuela Pakistan Thailand Guyana Benin Nepal Burkina Faso Uganda Viet Nam % * includes Taiwan Province of China ** estimates of the proportion of undernourished for 1999–2001 are not available; estimates for 1998–2000 published in SOFI 2002 were used instead 6 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003
  9. 9. Undernourished 1999–2001 (millions) Number and proportion of undernourished, 1999–2001 Countries in Industrialized Proportion of undernourished (%) Number of undernourished (millions) transition 34 countries 10 China* Near East and Other East Asia North Africa 41 India Southeast Asia 214 India Other South Asia Latin America North America and Caribbean Central America 53 Caribbean China* South America Sub-Saharan 135 Near East Africa 198 North Africa Asia and the Central Africa Source: FAO Pacific** 156 East Africa * includes Taiwan Southern Africa Province of China * includes Taiwan Province of China West Africa ** excl. China and India Source: FAO 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 Impact of China and India on trends Changes in numbers of undernourished in developing subregions Number of undernourished (millions) 1990–1992 to 1995–1997 (millions) 1995–1997 to 1999–2001 (millions) China* 800 India Reduction All developing Southeast Asia South America (progress) Developing countries countries West Africa excl. China* North Africa Increase 600 North America (setback) Central America Developing countries excl. India Caribbean Southern Africa Developing countries excl. China* and Other East Asia India Other South Asia 400 Near East 1990–1992 1995–1997 1999–2001 East Africa * includes Taiwan Central Africa Province of China * includes Taiwan Province of China Source: FAO –50 –40 –30 –20 –10 0 10 20 –20 –10 0 10 20 Source: FAO Grey bars: 1990–1992 Coloured bars: 1999–2001 Countries grouped by prevalence of undernourishment in 1999–2001 20–34% undernourished 35% undernourished 80 60 40 20 0 Lao People’s Dem. Rep. Dem. People's Rep. of Korea Tanzania, United Rep. of Honduras Central African Rep. India Mali Bolivia Philippines Botswana Senegal Sri Lanka Dominican Rep. Sudan Togo Lesotho Guatemala Panama Iraq** Gambia Cameroon Papua New Guinea Guinea Nicaragua Congo Bangladesh Malawi Yemen Chad Niger Madagascar Mongolia Kenya Cambodia Zimbabwe Rwanda Liberia Ethiopia*** Angola Haiti Zambia Sierra Leone Congo, Dem. Rep. of Mozambique Eritrea*** Afghanistan** Burundi Somalia** % Source: FAO *** Ethiopia and Eritrea were not separate entities in 1990–1992 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 7
  10. 10. Undernourishment around the world Counting the hungry: recent trends in developing countries and countries in transition ITH THE SLOW PACE of W progress achieved since 1990– 1992, prospects for reaching the World Food Summit goal of halving Analysing the keys to progress and reversals in reducing hunger In attempting to analyse the factors that successful countries also exhibited more the number of hungry people by 2015 fuel progress in reducing hunger, a rapid agricultural growth (3.3 percent per appear increasingly remote. Closer combination of six indicators proved most year compared to only 1.4 percent for analysis reveals that these numbers successful at differentiating among the countries where hunger increased mask an even more alarming trend. If countries grouped according to their throughout the decade), lower rates of the nine-year period is divided in half, performance between 1990–1992 and HIV infection, slower population growth figures for the developing countries as 1999–2001. These indicators include and far fewer food emergencies. a whole indicate that the number of population growth, GDP growth per undernourished people has actually person, health expenditure as a pro- increased by 4.5 million per year during portion of GDP, the proportion of adults Trends in undernourishment and the most recent subperiod from 1995– infected with HIV, the number of food GDP, by country grouping 1997 to 1999–2001. emergencies and the UNDP’s Human Data from individual countries show Development Index (itself a composite of Undernourishment: Decreased in both that only 19 countries succeeded in many economic and social indicators). subperiods reducing the number of under- In the countries that succeeded in Increased then nourished during both subperiods. In reducing hunger throughout the nine- decreased Decreased then these successful countries, the total year period, GDP per capita grew at an increased number of hungry people fell by over 80 annual rate of 2.6 percent – more than five Increased in both subperiods million over the full nine-year period times higher than the rate in countries 0 1 2 3 (see graph below). where undernourishment increased in Average annual growth At the other end of the scale are 26 both subperiods (0.5 percent). The most Source: FAO in GDP per capita (%) countries where the number of under- nourished increased in both subperiods. In most of these countries, the preva- number of hungry people in these contributed to success in some coun- lence of undernourishment was already countries increased by almost 60 million. tries and setbacks in others. Not high (greater than 20 percent) in Preliminary analysis (see box) sug- surprisingly, the countries that suc- 1990–1992. Over the next nine years, the gests a number of factors that may have ceeded in reducing hunger in both sub- Recent trends in undernourishment, by country groupings Number of undernourished (millions) 300 17 countries experienced a decrease in the Including India, Pakistan, Sudan, Colombia, number of undernourished, followed by an Indonesia, Nigeria 250 increase 19 countries experienced a decrease over the Including China, Viet Nam, Thailand, Sri 200 entire period Lanka, Peru, Brazil, Ghana, Namibia 150 26 countries experienced an increase over the Including Afghanistan, Dem. Rep. of Congo, entire period Yemen, Philippines, Liberia, Kenya, Iraq 100 22 countries experienced an increase followed Including Bangladesh, Cambodia, Haiti, by a decrease Nicaragua, Mozambique, Uganda 0 1990–1992 1995–1997 1999–2001 Source: FAO 8 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003
  11. 11. periods also exhibited significantly Undernourishment rising in many higher economic growth. Countries countries in transition Number and proportion of where the number of hungry people undernourished increased, on the other hand, expe- FAO’s first analysis of the changes that All countries rienced more food emergencies and have occurred since the break-up of in transition higher rates of HIV infection. the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia shows CIS Not all of the news that emerges that hunger is increasing in many of Baltic from this analysis is bad. Twenty-two the countries in transition. Overall, the States countries, including Bangladesh, Haiti number of undernourished people in Eastern and Mozambique, succeeded in turn- the countries in transition grew from 25 Europe ing the tide against hunger, at least to 34 million between 1993–1995 and 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 10 20 30 Proportion (%) Number (millions) temporarily. In these countries, the 1999–2001. These estimates must be number of undernourished declined regarded as provisional, as implemen- 1993–1995 1999–2001 Source: FAO during the second half of the decade tation of household sample surveys to after rising through the first five years. replace the data obtained from admini- In 17 other countries, however, the strative records in the centrally planned cultural production and marketing trend shifted in the opposite direction system is still at an early stage. systems have broken down. and the number of undernourished Nearly all of the increases in The Baltic States and East European people, which had been falling, began undernourishment took place in the countries have largely avoided these to rise. This group includes a number Commonwealth of Independent States problems. In most of these countries, of countries with large populations, (CIS), where the number of hungry the prevalence of undernourishment among them India, Indonesia, Nigeria, people rose from 20.6 to 28.8 million has decreased or remained stable. This Pakistan and Sudan. and the proportion increased from 7 to has not been the case, however, in At the same time, progress has 10 percent. Economic transition has Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, slowed in many of the countries that had been accompanied by far-reaching Latvia, the Former Yugoslav Republic scored dramatic gains during the first political and administrative changes of Macedonia, and Serbia and five-year subperiod, including China. that have disrupted trade and exchange Montenegro, where the prevalence of Having reduced the prevalence of relations and led to severe foreign undernourishment either rose or was undernourishment to moderate levels exchange shortages. In addition, agri- still significant in 1999–2001. (below 20 percent), these countries can no longer be expected to propel pro- gress for the developing world. Proportions of undernourished in countries Grey bars: 1993–1995 in transition Coloured bars: 1999–2001 With reversals in many large coun- tries and progress slowing in others, the Proportion of population undernourished pattern of change in the developing 2.5% 2.5–4% 5–19% 20–34% 35% 80 countries as a whole shifted from a declining to a rising trend. Between 60 1995–1997 and 1999–2001, the number 40 of hungry people in the developing countries increased by 18 million, 20 wiping out almost half the decrease of 0 37 million achieved during the previous Hungary Poland Romania Lithuania Slovenia Czech Rep. Belarus Ukraine Russian Fed. Albania Estonia Slovakia Latvia Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan Bosnia and Herzegovina Serbia and Montenegro TFYR Macedonia Croatia Rep. of Moldova Bulgaria Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Georgia Armenia Tajikistan five years. Unless significant gains are made in large countries where progress has stalled, it will be difficult to reverse this negative trend. Source: FAO The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 9
  12. 12. Undernourishment around the world Food insecurity and HIV/AIDS: when short-term emergencies intersect a long-wave crisis S INCE THE HIV/AIDS EPIDEMIC droughts, failed economic policies and AIDS erodes food security began, 25 million people have died civil strife. Its impact was compounded of the disease. Another 42 million by the devastating AIDS epidemic that HIV/AIDS causes and exacerbates food are now infected with HIV. During this had already shattered millions of insecurity in many ways. Most of its decade, AIDS is expected to claim more families, undermined the food sector and victims are young adults who fall ill and lives than all the wars and disasters of weakened the capacity of governments die during what should be their peak the past 50 years. to respond. In 2001 alone, the year before productive years. They leave behind a The food crisis that threatened more the crisis hit, nearly half a million people population overbalanced with the elderly than 14 million people in southern Africa in the affected countries died of AIDS, and young, many of them orphans (see in 2002–2003 brought into sharp focus orphaning an estimated 2.5 million graph). The impact on farm production the interactions between HIV/AIDS and children. and food security is often devastating. food security. It demonstrated that Governments and international By the year 2020, the epidemic will hunger cannot be combated effectively organizations responded quickly to have claimed one-fifth or more of the in regions ravaged by AIDS, unless inter- deploy emergency food aid. But reports agricultural labour force in most ventions address the particular needs from the field warned that they were southern African countries (see graph). of AIDS-affected households and incor- facing a new kind of emergency, in Already, in several affected countries, 60 porate measures both to prevent and to which severe short-term food short- to 70 percent of farms have suffered mitigate the spread of HIV/AIDS. ages overlap an unprecedented collapse labour losses as a result of HIV/AIDS. In of health, agricultural production and some severely affected areas, studies HIV/AIDS and food crises: a chronic food security that will endure for have found that more than half of all double emergency? decades. The AIDS epidemic is driven households are headed by women (30 by a slow-acting virus, with an epidemic percent, mostly widows), grandparents The southern African food crisis was curve that stretches well into the century (nearly 20 percent) and orphaned chil- triggered by a combination of recurring (see graph). dren (almost 5 percent). Lacking the labour, resources and know-how to grow staple and commercial crops, many HIV infections, AIDS deaths and Projected population with and households have shifted to cultivating non-AIDS deaths, South Africa without AIDS, Botswana, 2020 Millions Age in years Projected labour losses due to 1.0 80 HIV/AIDS, southern Africa 70 males females 0.8 Botswana 60 0.6 50 Malawi 40 Mozambique 0.4 30 Namibia 20 0.2 10 South Africa 0 Tanzania, 0.0 United Rep. of 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 140 100 60 20 20 60 100 140 Population (thousands) Zimbabwe Annual AIDS deaths 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 New infections Projected population Projected agricultural labour force Annual non-AIDS deaths Deficits due to HIV/AIDS losses as a result of HIV/AIDS (%) 1985–2000 2000–2020 Source: Dorrington and Johnson Source: US Census Bureau Source: FAO 10 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003
  13. 13. survival foods. Others have abandoned seriously hamper economic and social For people who have already been their fields entirely. A study of communal development. Recent estimates indicate infected with HIV, hunger and malnu- agriculture in Zimbabwe found that that the pandemic has already reduced trition increase susceptibility to oppor- maize production fell by 61 percent in national economic growth rates across tunistic infections, leading to an earlier households that suffered an AIDS- Africa by 2 to 4 percent a year. Data also onset of full-blown AIDS. Once the related death (see graph). suggest that undernourishment has disease takes hold, nutrient absorption And the impact will continue to be felt continued to climb in countries where is reduced, appetite and metabolism are for generations to come. AIDS dimin- HIV/AIDS was already widespread in disrupted and muscles, organs and ishes investment in agriculture. It strips 1991, while declining elsewhere in sub- other tissues waste away. People living households of assets as they are forced Saharan Africa (see graph). with HIV/AIDS need to eat considerably to sell off what little they have to pay for more food to fight the illness, counteract medical and funeral expenses, or simply Hunger fuels AIDS epidemic weight loss and extend a productive life. to survive. It forces children, particularly girls, to withdraw from school to work or While HIV/AIDS has become a major Food security helps prevent AIDS care for ill parents, and it cuts off the cause of hunger, the reverse is also true. transfer of essential skills and know- Hunger accelerates both the spread of As the crisis in southern Africa has ledge from one generation to the next. the virus and the course of the disease. shown, food security interventions must In two districts in Kenya affected by Hungry people are driven to adopt risky be planned with an “HIV/AIDS lens”. AIDS, a study found that only 7 percent strategies to survive. Frequently they are Traditional food aid safety nets are not of orphans heading farm households forced to migrate, often to urban slums sufficient and may prove ineffective. had adequate agricultural knowledge. where HIV infection rates are high. In Families that have lost key productive UNAIDS projects that between 2000 desperation, women and children barter members may not be able to participate and 2020, 55 million Africans will die sex for money and food, exposing them- in “food for work” projects, commonly earlier than they would have in the selves to the risk of infection. used as a way to provide emergency food absence of AIDS – a total equivalent to in exchange for labour on public works the entire population of Italy. This projects. To recover and achieve a degree unprecedented human catastrophe will Undernourishment and HIV/ of self-sufficiency, they need both food AIDS, sub-Saharan Africa assistance and agricultural development programmes that address their needs Production decrease in households % of population undernourished by emphasizing nutritious crops that with an AIDS death, Zimbabwe 40 require less labour, diversification that spreads labour requirements and har- 35 vests more evenly throughout the year, Maize and education and training for orphaned 30 Cotton children and adolescents. 25 Incorporating HIV prevention, nutri- Vegetables 1979–1981 1990–1992 1999–2001 tional care for people living with HIV/ Groundnuts AIDS and AIDS mitigation measures into Average prevalence of undernourishment food security and nutrition programmes Cattle Countries in sub-Saharan Africa can help reduce the spread and impact 100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100 with HIV prevalence 5% in 1991 % of pre-AIDS production of HIV/AIDS. Indeed, when short-term All countries in sub-Saharan food emergencies intersect the long- Africa Decline in production wave HIV/AIDS crisis, household food Remaining production Countries in sub-Saharan Africa security is likely to be the single most with HIV prevalence 5% in 1991 important HIV prevention strategy and Source: Kwaramba in Stover et al Source: WHO; FAO AIDS mitigation response. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 11
  14. 14. Undernourishment around the world Water and food security W ATER AND FOOD SECURITY drought was listed as a cause in 60 per- Irrigation increases yields while are closely related. Agriculture cent of food emergencies (see graph). reducing hunger and poverty is by far the biggest user of Africa is both the driest continent water, accounting for about 69 percent (other than Oceania) and the region By ensuring an adequate and reliable of all withdrawals worldwide and over 80 where hunger is most prevalent. Within supply of water, irrigation increases percent in developing countries. Reliable Africa, undernourishment and periodic yields of most crops by 100 to 400 access to adequate water increases famines have afflicted semi-arid and percent (see graph). Although only 17 agricultural yields, providing more food drought-prone areas (see map). percent of global cropland is irrigated, and higher incomes in the rural areas Even where overall water availability that 17 percent produces 40 percent of that are home to three-quarters of the is adequate, erratic rainfall and access to the world’s food. world’s hungry people. Not surprisingly, water can cause both short-term food Along with higher yields, irrigation countries with better access to water shortages and long-term food insecurity. increases incomes and reduces hunger also tend to have lower levels of under- Floods are another major cause of food and poverty. Data show that where nourishment (see graph). emergencies. Sharp seasonal differ- irrigation is widely available, under- If water is a key ingredient in food ences in water availability can also nourishment and poverty are less security, lack of it can be a major cause increase food insecurity. In India, for prevalent (see graph). of famine and undernourishment, par- example, more than 70 percent of annual Ongoing studies in Asian countries ticularly in food-insecure rural areas rainfall occurs during the three months provide evidence that irrigation alleviates where people depend on local agricul- of the monsoon, when most of it floods both permanent and temporary poverty. ture for both food and income. Drought out to sea. Farmers who lack irrigation In India, for example, a World Bank study ranks as the single most common cause facilities must contend with water found that 69 percent of people in non- of severe food shortages in developing scarcity through much of the year and irrigated districts are poor, but only 26 countries. For the three most recent with the threat of crop failures when the percent in irrigated districts. years for which data are available, monsoons fail. Farmers benefit directly from irri- Access to water and food security Drought and famine in Africa, 1971–2001 (developing countries and countries in transition) % of people with access to food Drought has been the 100 most common cause of food emergencies and has contributed to 80 several famines in Africa over the past 60 30 years. Main areas affected by 40 famine, 1971–2001 Millions of people affected by drought, 1971–2001 20 5 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Water index* * A composite indicator that incorporates measures of water resources Ethiopia (from rainfall, river flows and aquifer recharge), access, environmental 57 issues (water quality) and pressure on resources. 10 10 5 1 0.1 0.1 Source: FAO, CEH Wallingford Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal 12 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003
  15. 15. Causes of food emergencies in Yields and water requirements of Irrigation and prevalence of developing countries irrigated and rainfed agriculture undernourishment, 1998–2000 % of food emergencies* Cereal production (‘000 kg/ha) 80 South Asia 8 60 6 East and Southeast Asia 40 4 Near East and 20 2 North Africa 0 2000 2001 2002 Latin America 0 and Caribbean 1 000 3 000 5 000 7 000 Flood Refugees** Water used (m3/ha) Sub-Saharan Drought Economic problems Irrigated crops, high yield varieties, Africa high inputs Conflict Other Irrigated crops, low inputs 0 10 20 30 40 * Total exceeds 100% because of multiple Rainfed crops, high inputs % of cultivated area irrigated causes and cited for many emergencies ** Includes internally displaced people Rainfed crops, low inputs % of total population undernourished Source: FAO Source: FAO Source: FAO gation through increased and more That, in turn, will depend on increased 270 million hectares of irrigated land stable incomes and the higher value of use of irrigation and improved water have been degraded by the accumulation irrigated land. Even landless labourers management, even as a growing number of salts. In many areas, water is being and small farmers who lack the of countries face water shortages. pumped out of the ground for irrigation resources to employ irrigation them- FAO expects the irrigated area in far faster than it can be replenished by selves often benefit through higher developing countries as a whole to rainwater percolating through the soil. wages, lower food prices and a more expand by almost 20 percent by the In China, where more than half of the varied diet. Studies in Bangladesh and year 2030. By using irrigation water irrigated lands rely on tubewells, water India have shown that every job created more efficiently and taking advantage tables have fallen by up to 50 metres in irrigated agriculture yields another of opportunities to grow several crops over the past 30 years. job in agricultural services and the a year on irrigated land, FAO estimates Where water is scarce and the environ- processing industry. Irrigation has the that the effective irrigated area can be ment fragile, achieving food security may greatest impact on reducing hunger increased by 34 percent while using only depend on what has been called “virtual when it is labour-intensive, employs 14 percent more water. The largest water” – foods imported from countries affordable, small-scale techniques and is increase (44 percent) is expected in sub- with an abundance of water. It takes combined with access to credit, market- Saharan Africa, where only 4 percent of 1 cubic metre of water to produce ing and agricultural extension services. arable land is irrigated today. 1 kilogram of wheat. Extrapolating from Large-scale irrigation is not always those numbers, FAO calculated that to Looking to the future a viable or desirable option. In some grow the amount of food imported by areas, including much of Africa, rainfall Near Eastern countries in 1994 would Over the next 30 years, the world’s patterns and the geology of river basins have required as much water as the total population is expected to grow by preclude cost-effective irrigation. In annual flow of the Nile at Aswan. In such 2 billion people. Feeding this growing others, poorly managed irrigation and conditions, it may make sense to import population and reducing hunger will only overextraction of groundwater threaten food and use limited water resources for be possible if agricultural yields can be sustainability and food security. An other purposes, including growing high- increased significantly and sustainably. estimated 7 to 10 percent of the world’s value crops for export. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 13
  16. 16. Undernourishment around the world Hunger hotspots A S OF JULY 2003, 36 countries around the world faced serious food emergencies requiring in- Countries facing food emergencies in 2003 ternational food assistance. The causes of these food shortages are varied and complex. The locations, as indicated on the map, are painfully familiar. All the countries affected in 2003 had experi- enced food emergencies for at least two consecutive years. Many had been plagued by severe food shortages for a decade or longer. In southern Africa, food production has started to recover from the severe drought that reduced harvests by as Location and duration of current food emergencies (consecutive years including 2003) much as 50 percent in 2001/2002. But several countries in the region still face No food emergencies 9–11 years 2–4 years 12–14 years severe shortages and all must contend 5–8 years 15 years Source: FAO with the long-term impact of the HIV/ AIDS pandemic (see pages 10–11). Further to the north, pre-famine con- lems were cited as the main cause of during more than half the years of the ditions have been reported in Eritrea more than 35 percent of food emer- 17-year period between 1986 and 2003. and parts of Ethiopia, where crops have gencies during 1992–2003 (see graph). Many conflict-induced complex emer- withered, livestock are dying from lack The recurrence and persistence of gencies are persistent and turn into of water and grazing, and millions of emergencies highlights a number of long-term crises. Eight countries suf- people need emergency food aid. countries that could be considered as fered emergencies during 15 or more Several Asian countries have also “food emergency hotspots”. Thirty-three years during 1986–2003. War or civil been facing the effects of harsh countries experienced food emergencies strife was a major factor in all eight. weather, including drought and unusu- ally cold, snowy winters in Mongolia. Although drought and other natural Main causes of food emergencies, Frequency of food emergencies disasters remain the most common 1986–1991 and 1992–2003 in affected countries, 1986–2003 causes of food emergencies, an in- creasing proportion are now human- Number of years Human-induced with emergency induced. In several countries in Central (mainly conflict) and West Africa, civil strife has dis- 1–3 years rupted both food production and access Natural to food. (mainly drought) 4–6 years Even developments in international Mixed 7–10 years commodity markets can trigger food crises in countries that depend heavily 10 years on agricultural exports or food imports. 0 20 40 60 80 Percent 0 10 20 30 40 The collapse of coffee prices has been a 1986–1991 Number of countries major cause of increased food insecurity 1992–2003 in Central America. Source: FAO Source: FAO Overall, conflict and economic prob- 14 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003
  17. 17. Droughts take heavy toll on livestock herding communities Where the pastoralists are: livestock-only, rangeland farming areas Two consecutive years of severe drought have decimated both crop and livestock Pastoral farming systems, in which people’s livelihoods depend almost entirely on production in Mauritania, triggering a livestock, extend across rangelands in all developing regions. food emergency. In a country where less than 1 percent of the land can sustain crops, livestock accounts for 70 percent of agricultural production and 15 percent of national GDP. But lack of water has forced herders to sell or slaughter many of their animals. Distress sales sent prices plummeting by more than 50 percent in one year. On the other side of the globe, several years of drought and harsh winters Arid/semi-arid have devastated livestock production in Humid/subhumid Mongolia. Unusually heavy snowfall in Temperate, tropical highland Source: ILRI 2003 killed up to 2.5 million animals, undermining the livelihood of nearly a quarter of the country’s population. An disease. And they are coming under of its harshest environments. They also estimated 80 percent of Mongolians, increasing pressure as human popula- highlight the need for emergency pre- many of them nomadic herders, raise tions increase and grazing areas shrink. vention and rehabilitation programmes livestock, accounting for almost 90 per- In Afghanistan, three consecutive to respond to the particular needs of cent of agricultural output. years of severe drought (1999–2001) led livestock owners. The food crises in Mauritania and to massive distress sales and deaths of Early warning systems have had Mongolia highlight the vulnerability of animals that reduced the livestock popu- difficulties detecting the impact of traditional pastoral production systems, lation by nearly 60 percent. Most noma- drought on pastoralists and providing particularly nomadic systems that are dic Kuchis lost almost their entire herds. the information needed to help them the main source of food and income In Eritrea, the worst drought in dec- cope and recover. Pastoral communities in semi-arid rangelands ill suited to ades caused livestock losses as high as typically need different kinds of aid over growing crops. 10 to 20 percent in some areas in 2002. longer periods than farmers who rely Globally, an estimated 675 million The same drought also struck neigh- mainly on crops. When rains return after rural poor people depend on livestock for bouring Ethiopia, which has one of the a drought, for example, farmers may some or all of their subsistence. Other largest livestock populations in Africa. require little more than seeds, fertilizer estimates suggest that as many as 70 The eastern pastoral areas of Afar and and one successful cropping season to percent of the rural poor are livestock Somali were hardest hit. Acute short- get back on their feet. But pastoralists owners. That figure includes nearly 200 ages of water and fodder caused losses may need several years of assistance million pastoralists and more than 100 of up to 40 percent for cattle and 10 to 15 to weather the crisis, replenish their million landless livestock keepers in percent for goats and sheep. Livestock breeding stock and rebuild the herds mixed farming regions who depend prices fell by up to 50 percent. that represent both their livelihoods almost exclusively on livestock. These emergencies underline the fact and their life savings. In the long term, Their animals and livelihoods are that traditional livestock production alternatives must be found for those highly vulnerable to droughts and floods, systems sustain some of the world’s whose livelihoods can no longer be sus- resource degradation and outbreaks of most vulnerable communities in some tained by nomadic herding. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 15
  18. 18. Special feature Trade and food security: the importance of agriculture and agricultural trade in developing countries I NTERNATIONAL TRADE can have a factors in determining economic per- countries where hunger is most major impact on reducing hunger formance. Such factors include natural widespread. In countries where more and poverty in developing countries. resource endowments and the size, than 34 percent of the population are Participation in trade allows access skills and training of the workforce, as undernourished, agriculture represents to larger markets and opens up well as policies and institutions. 30 percent of GDP, and nearly 70 per- opportunities for specialization in Indeed, while there is broad agree- cent of the people rely on agriculture for production and economies of scale. ment that openness to international their livelihoods (see graphs). This can be of special importance for trade is a fundamental component of a Today, 75 percent of poor people live developing countries, particularly for policy mix that can foster economic in rural areas, and increases in urban smaller ones where the limited size of growth, it is also recognized that, on poverty tend to be fuelled by people domestic markets discourages full use its own, openness to trade is unlikely migrating to the cities to escape rural of production potential. to lead to major improvements in a deprivation. No sustainable reduction At the same time, trade provides country’s economic performance. Nor in poverty is possible without improving access to better and cheaper supplies can it be a substitute for development livelihoods in rural areas. (including food imports) and may policies specifically aimed at reducing Economic growth originating in stimulate flows of technology and poverty and hunger. agriculture can have a particularly investment. To the extent that inter- strong impact in reducing poverty and national trade spurs broad-based The critical role of agriculture hunger. Increasing employment and economic growth, expanded partici- incomes in agriculture stimulates pation in world markets can contribute Agriculture and agricultural trade play demand for non-agricultural goods to improvements in household food a particularly important role in both and services, providing a boost to non- security. the national economies and the food farm rural incomes as well. A recent But increased openness to inter- security of developing countries. study in five countries in sub-Saharan national trade has its costs. It may Throughout the developing world, Africa showed that adding US$1.00 gradually redistribute world production agriculture accounts for around 9 to farm incomes potentially increases according to countries’ comparative percent of GDP and more than half of total income – beyond the initial advantage. Inevitably this means that in total employment. But its relative US$1.00 – by between US$0.96 and some countries certain industries may importance is far greater in those US$1.88. shrink, either absolutely or relative to others, as cheaper imports become available. The resulting changes in the Agricultural GDP and Agricultural employment and production structure and reallocation undernourishment, 1996–2000 undernourishment, 1996–2000 of resources may have a negative impact on food security, at least in the % of population undernourished % of population undernourished short term. Unemployment may rise, 2.5 2.5 some productive sectors in agriculture may decline, and the food system may 2.5–4 2.5–4 become increasingly concentrated, 5–19 5–19 shutting out small-scale farmers and firms. 20–34 20–34 Overall, countries that are more 35 35 involved in trade tend to enjoy higher rates of economic growth. But growth 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Agricultural GDP as a share of Agricultural employment as a share rates diverge widely for countries with total GDP (%) of total employment (%) comparable levels of trade activity, Source: FAO Source: FAO highlighting the importance of other 16 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003

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