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Capital Markets Research                                                                                                  ...
KBank Daily Update                            Sep 1, 2011                  Macro and Market Outlook                       ...
KBank Daily Update                            Sep 1, 2011                                             FX Wrap             ...
KBank Daily Update                            Sep 1, 2011         Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized     ...
KBank Daily Update                            Sep 1, 2011                                                                 ...
KBank Daily Update                            Sep 1, 2011                                                                 ...
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KBank Daily Sep 2011

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KBank Daily Sep 2011

  1. 1. Capital Markets Research Sep 1, 2011Thai Stock Market Aug 31 US Market Change Aug 31 ChangeSET Index 1,070.05 +25.08 Dow Jones 11,613.53 +53.58Market Turnover (Bt mn) 30,089.85 5,354.74 S&P 500 1,218.89 +5.97Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) +752.27 +297.07 Nasdaq 2,579.46 +3.35Thai Bond Market Aug 31 US 10 yr T-note (%) Change 2.24 +1.9 bpTotal Return Index 207.92 +206.63 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.20 +0.0 bp NYMEX crude ($/b) 88.81 -0.09Yield curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yrAug 31 3.33 3.40 3.47 3.48 3.50 3.41 3.42 3.45 3.51 3.58 3.61 3.75Chng 1D (bp) +1 +0 +0 +0 +0 -1 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0Chng 5D (bp) +11 +3 +4 +8 +8 +2 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0Interbank Rates Sep 01 Aug 30 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yrOvernight (%) 3.50 3.25-3.47 Aug 31 3.50750 3.52500 3.55375 3.60000 3.68125 3.71375 3.76750Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6mAug 31 3.50000 3.50000 3.50000 - Aug 31 0.22556 0.32633 0.48328THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6mAug 31 3.46830 3.46833 3.44589 3.40987 3.43530 3.59365 Aug 31 0.22150 0.32722 0.48578SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yrSep 01 Bid/Ask 3.40/3.45 3.40/3.45 3.46/3.51 3.51/3.56 3.57/3.60 3.64/3.69 3.75/3.80KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m)(against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/ImportUSD 29.71 29.81 30.06 3.53/14.40EUR 42.5525 42.6963 43.2650 2.98/14.44GBP 48.1400 48.3025 48.9063 6.41/15.94JPY 0.3843 0.3856 0.3930 5.33/14.87KBank Technical Analysis Sep 01 Aug 31 Support Resistance Trend StrategyUSD/THB (Onshore) 29.94 29.93 29.85 30.05 Sideway Sell USD near resistanceUSD/JPY 76.95 76.66 76.65 82.60 Sideway Sell USD near resistanceEUR/USD 1.4373 1.4369 1.4330 1.4420 Sideway Buy EUR near supportNote: This table is primarily for the purpose of providing information. It is advisable that you contact us prior to quotations. Macro and Market Outlook • ADP employment report showed that the private sector continued to add jobs by 91,000 positions in August and the Chicago PMI came in at 56.5, 3 points above the market’s forecast • Eurozone’s unemployment rate stayed at 10.0% for July’s reading, disappointing the market that had expected a slight decline to 9.9% • Thailand’s economy showed signs of a slowdown in July, but the current accounts recorded a strong surplus of USD3.6bn FX Market Wrap • USD/JPY edged higher slightly, closing at 76.71 as global stocks climbed and investors reduced safe haven demand • USD/THB closed at its lowest in a week’s time at 29.94 amid the global market’s risk-on trade revival. This morning, it is testing lower towards 29.90. At the same time, the month-end demand for the dollar is now reduced News Update from the Web • The Pheu Thai-led government risks raising the ire of blue-collar workers by lifting the minimum wage to Bt300 next year in just 7 provinces, not at once across the whole country Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein wasobtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  2. 2. KBank Daily Update Sep 1, 2011 Macro and Market Outlook US Treasuries and Thai rates Global stocks climbed yesterday, supported by investors’ (Source:Bloomberg) - Treasuries posted the biggest expectation of further actions by the Federal Reserve and monthly gain since December 2008 as investors ignored data that came out yesterday were not as ugly as the the rating downgrade of the U.S. and sought a refuge in the previous two weeks. At the same time, the U.S. markets safest securities amid signs of slowing global growth. may be expecting announcement of fiscal measures in Obama’s speech next week. U.S. 10-year notes fell after a private report showed employers added jobs in August, bolstering optimism the Economic data update – the U.S. job market data recovery may not lose momentum. Minutes of the Federal continued to echo weakness but at least the ADP Reserve’s Aug. 9 meeting released yesterday showed employment report showed that the private sector policy makers will debate stimulus options at its September continued to add jobs by 91,000 positions in August (vs. gathering. 109K in July) while the Challenger job cuts report showed % % companies are planning to cut jobs at a slower pace (47% 3.4 0.7 yoy vs. 59.4% yoy in July). Another bright spot was the 3.2 0.6 Chicago PMI which came at 56.5, lower than July’s 58.8 3.0 0.5 but was 3 points above the market’s forecast. Today, the 2.8 0.4 market is awaiting the ISM manufacturing data which could 2.6 0.3 show a number less than 50 (a contraction indication) for 2.4 0.2 the first time in months. 2.2 0.1 300 -100 250 -80 2.0 0.0 200 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 -60 150 10yr Treasury yield, % (left axis) 2yr Treasury yield, % (right axis) 100 -40 50 -20 The yield on the 10-year note rose five basis points to 2.23 0 0 percent at 5:19 p.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg -50 Bond Trader prices. 20 -100 -150 40 -200 60 The 10-year note yield fell 52 basis points this month, the Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 most since a 71 basis point drop in December 2008. New ADP nonfarm payrolls, 000 (LHS) Challenger Job-cuts % YoY (RHS - inverted) York- based Standard & Poor’s stripped the U.S. of its top rank on Aug. 5, saying Washington politics were making The eurozone’s unemployment rate stayed at 10.0% for the country less creditworthy. The yield slid on Aug. 18 to a July’s reading, disappointing the market that had expected record low 1.97 percent. a slight decline to 9.9%. However, a piece of good news for the Eurozone was that Angela Merkel’s cabinet had agreed on a revision to the eurozone rescue package. This Thai interest rate: includes empowering the EFSF to buy sovereign bonds in % the market as well as raising Germany’s loan guarantee by 4.25 about twice to 211 billion euros. Nevertheless the plans 4.00 would have to be endorsed by the German parliament before coming into effect. 3.75 US$, mn 3.50 6000 5000 3.25 4000 3000 3.00 2000 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 1000 2Y 3Y 5Y 0 -1000 The auction of 6-year government bond yesterday -2000 (LB17OA) saw strong demand with B/C ratio at 2.2 the -3000 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 auction amount (Bt12bn). Trade balance Services and transfers Balance of Payments 3-5 year bonds continued to see offshore demand, especially in the LB145B and LB15DA issues, while the st Summary from our KBank Perspectives (Aug 31 ): bond auction yesterday supported mid-curve bond prices Thailand’s economy showed signs of a slowdown in July, as well. IRS market was relatively quiet but general trend especially for agricultural production, manufacturing remained sideways trade with market participants trying to production and private consumption. However, exports push yields lower. 2Y IRS declined about 2-3bp to 3.42% continued to perform and tourism industry sustained while the 5-year tenor declined 4-5bp to hit 3.55%. positive performance. Other comforting signs included private investment and loan growth. Exports expanded by The stock market seems to be reviving somewhat and this 36.4% yoy and 30.2% yoy when unwrought gold is may cause yields to see some upward pressure in the excluded; imports grew by 13.1% yoy. Trade balance was near-term. Nevertheless, emerging market bonds remained above USD2.0bn and the current accounts recorded the favourites among foreign investors. USD3.6bn of surplus. Significant outflows in the capital accounts (USD3.32bn), resulted in a small surplus in the balance of payments surplus at USD0.54bn. 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  3. 3. KBank Daily Update Sep 1, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement EUR/USD closed lower by half of a per cent to 1.437, a Wed 31-Aug-11 Tue 30-Aug-11 % Change level it continues to trade at this morning. While the USD/THB 29.94 30.00 -0.20 employment data had been weak, there had been positive USD/JPY 76.71 76.68 +0.04 news from the German cabinet about adding to its EUR/USD 1.437 1.445 -0.50 commitments for the European bailout fund. In any case, GBP/USD 1.6239 1.6299 -0.37 investors are still not ready to go long euro at the moment amid several uncertainties. USD/CHF 0.8064 0.8196 -1.61 USD/SGD 1.2036 1.2054 -0.15 Swiss franc weakened yesterday amid stronger flows into risky assets and reduced safe haven demand. However, it USD/TWD 29.00 29.05 -0.17 quickly rebounded this morning to strengthen against the USD/KRW 1,064.9 1,070.4 -0.51 dollar and the euro after a high-ranking official said that the USD/PHP 42.40 42.44 -0.09 nation must be able to live with a stronger franc. USD/IDR 8,528 8,528 +0.0 USD/MYR 2.985 2.981 +0.13 1.49 1.48 USD/CNY 6.378 6.380 -0.04 1.47 Source: Reuters 1.46 1.45 .FX Consensus Forecast 1.44 1.43 Spot Dec 2011 Dec 2012 1.42 1.41 USD/THB 29.94 29.00 28.00 1.40 USD/JPY 76.94 79.00 84.00 1.39 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep EUR/USD 1.4372 1.42 1.41 EUR/USD GBP/USD 1.6236 1.63 1.68 USD/CNY 6.379 6.300 6.060 USD/JPY edged higher slightly yesterday, closing at USD/SGD 1.2025 1.19 1.18 76.71 as global stocks climbed and investors reduced safe haven demand. Yen is seen weakening further against the USD/IDR 8,514 8,450 8,300 major currencies after official report this morning showed USD/MYR 2.97 2.92 2.87 foreign investors were net-sellers of Japanese bonds. USD/PHP 42.20 42.00 41.15 86.00 USD/KRW 1,062 1,040 1,000 85.00 84.00 USD/TWD 28.96 28.15 27.80 83.00 82.00 AUD/USD 1.07 1.07 1.05 81.00 USD/CHF 0.81 0.79 0.88 80.00 Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB 79.00 78.00 Currency Pair Targets 77.00 76.00 Spot Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 USD/THB 29.94 29.00 28.00 USD/JPY JPYTHB 38.91 36.71 33.33 EURTHB USD/THB closed at its lowest in a week’s time at 29.94 43.03 41.18 39.48 amid the global market’s risk-on trade revival. This GBP/THB 48.61 47.27 47.04 morning, it is testing lower towards 29.90. At the same CNY/THB time, the month-end demand for the dollar is now reduced, 4.69 4.60 4.62 removing up-side pressure on the USD/THB. At the same AUD/THB 32.06 31.03 29.40 time, foreigners remained interested in the local bonds CHF/THB 37.08 36.71 31.82 while yesterday’s current account surplus was also strong SGD/THB 24.90 24.37 23.73 at USD3.6bn. Source: KBank, Bloomberg 31.10 KBank NEER Index 30.90 30.70 Current 97.20 30.50 YTD + 4.38% 30.30 vs 52 weeks ago - 3.02% 30.10 vs 1mth ago - 0.09% 29.90 29.70 vs 1 week ago - 0.30% 29.50 vs 1 day ago - 0.17% May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 vs long term average + 8.92% USD/THB USD/THB 100-day moving average Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  4. 4. KBank Daily Update Sep 1, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of Government and BoT Bonds Aug 30-31 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB123A 4.10 3.95 3.79 3.63 3.48 3.32 3.17 3.01 2.60 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB12NA 5.09 4.70 4.30 3.91 3.51 3.11 2.72 2.32 1.68 BOT152A 4.00 15,000 3.605/3.642 3.63250 2.94 LB133A 5.63 5.10 4.57 4.05 3.52 2.99 2.46 1.94 1.16 CB11929C 0.08 15,000 3.385/3.420 3.408730 2.44 LB137A 6.17 5.51 4.86 4.21 3.55 2.90 2.24 1.59 0.69 CB11D01B 0.25 18,000 3.395/3.468 3.445310 1.71 LB13OA 6.54 5.79 5.04 4.30 3.55 2.80 2.05 1.31 0.31 LB143A 6.97 6.10 5.24 4.37 3.50 2.64 1.77 0.91 -0.21 CB12301A 0.50 15,000 3.460/3.530 3.518370 2.36 LB145A 7.24 6.29 5.35 4.40 3.46 2.51 1.56 0.62 -0.58 LB170A 7.09 12,000 3.428/3.454 3.444100 2.20 LB145B 7.23 6.28 5.34 4.39 3.45 2.50 1.56 0.61 -0.58 Source: ThaiBMA LB14DA 8.02 6.88 5.75 4.61 3.48 2.34 1.21 0.07 -1.31 Auction Calendar of Government Bonds LB155A 8.74 7.42 6.09 4.77 3.46 2.14 0.82 -0.50 -2.07 Tenor Amt. LB157A 8.67 7.37 6.07 4.77 3.47 2.17 0.88 -0.42 -1.97 Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB15DA 9.55 8.03 6.50 4.98 3.45 1.92 0.40 -1.12 -2.90 - 31-Aug-11 10-Oct-17 LB167A 10.16 8.49 6.81 5.14 3.47 1.80 0.13 -1.54 -3.47 LB21DA 11.08 13,000 07-Sep-11 17-Dec-21 - LB16NA 10.66 8.87 7.07 5.27 3.47 1.67 -0.12 -1.92 -3.97 LB236A 12.84 8,000 14-Sep-11 16-Jun-23 - LB171A 10.73 8.92 7.11 5.29 3.48 1.67 -0.14 -1.96 -4.02 LB616A 50.32 5,000 14-Sep-11 17-Jun-61 - LB175A 11.25 9.30 7.36 5.42 3.48 1.54 -0.39 -2.33 -4.52 LB183A 12.48 10.23 7.99 5.74 3.50 1.26 -0.99 -3.23 -5.72 LB316A 20.62 9,000 21-Sep-11 20-Jun-31 - LB183B 12.05 9.91 7.77 5.64 3.50 1.36 -0.77 -2.90 -5.29 LB14NA 4.00 7,000 21-Sep-11 26-Nov-14 - LB191A 13.03 10.65 8.27 5.89 3.51 1.13 -1.25 -3.63 -6.26 LB17OA 7.09 9,000 28-Sep-11 10-Oct-17 - LB196A 13.93 11.32 8.72 6.11 3.51 0.90 -1.70 -4.31 -7.16 Source: ThaiBMA LB198A 13.75 11.19 8.63 6.07 3.51 0.95 -1.60 -4.16 -6.97 Auction Calendar of BoT bills and Bonds LB19DA 14.03 11.40 8.78 6.15 3.53 0.90 -1.72 -4.34 -7.21 Tenor Amt. LB213A 15.18 12.27 9.36 6.46 3.55 0.65 -2.25 -5.16 -8.31 Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB214A 15.05 12.18 9.30 6.43 3.56 0.69 -2.17 -5.04 -8.16 CB11919A 0.04 60,000 01-Sep-11 19-Sep-11 - LB22NA 17.11 13.73 10.35 6.97 3.59 0.21 -3.17 -6.54 -10.16 - CB11920A 0.04 50,000 02-Sep-11 20-Sep-11 LB233A 17.19 13.79 10.39 7.00 3.60 0.21 -3.18 -6.57 -10.21 Source: ThaiBMA LB236A 18.58 14.84 11.10 7.36 3.63 -0.10 -3.84 -7.57 -11.54 LB244A 18.77 14.98 11.20 7.42 3.65 -0.13 -3.90 -7.67 -11.69 LB24DA 19.39 15.45 11.51 7.58 3.65 -0.29 -4.22 -8.14 -12.32 LB267A 20.02 15.93 11.85 7.77 3.69 -0.38 -4.46 -8.53 -12.85 LB283A 21.36 16.95 12.54 8.13 3.73 -0.67 -5.07 -9.47 -14.11 LB296A 23.12 18.28 13.45 8.62 3.79 -1.04 -5.86 -10.68 -15.74 LB383A 27.80 21.84 15.88 9.93 3.98 -1.96 -7.90 -13.83 -20.00 LB396A 29.16 22.87 16.58 10.30 4.02 -2.25 -8.52 -14.78 -21.29 Average 13.20 10.79 8.38 5.97 3.57 1.16 -1.24 -3.65 -6.30 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model Bps from model 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 -10.00 -15.00 -20.00 3 mth avg -25.00 Now -30.00 LB296A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  5. 5. KBank Daily Update Sep 1, 2011 "Our walkout for the second time wont affect the quorum," Economic News Update he said. Wage hike will begin in only 7 provinces Now, employers could only pin their hopes on the - by The Nation representatives from the Finance Ministry, National Economic and Social Development Board and Commerce The Pheu Thai-led government risks raising the ire of blue- Ministry, who should recognise the ramifications of the big collar workers by lifting the minimum wage to Bt300 next jump in minimum wages, he added. year in just seven provinces, not at once across the whole country. Somkiat said the government would consider remedial assistance for those employers experiencing the greatest "The immediate hike in the minimum daily wage across the difficulties. country was a highlight of the Pheu Thai Partys election campaign," Wilaiwan sae Tia, vice president of the Thai "The labour minister will hold discussions on the measures Labour Solidarity Committee (TLSC), said yesterday. with Deputy Prime Minister Kittiratt na Ranong and Commerce Minister Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala late this "If the Pheu Thai Party fails to keep its word, its empty week," he said. promise may be considered public deception. We will consult with legal experts and academics about the issue," Yongyuth Chalamwong, director of labour research at the he said. Thailand Development Research Institute, said the government might use tax relief to cushion the blow to Labour Minister Padermchai Sasomsap said the partys employers. hallmark policy would be implemented first in Bangkok, Samut Prakan, Samut Sakhon, Pathum Thani, Nakhon Pathom, Nonthaburi and Phuket. More than three million workers are expected to benefit. Somkiat Chayasriwong, permanent secretary of the ministry, said the plan was possible because the current wage rate in those provinces is now quite close to Bt300, so employers should not be too bothered. In Phuket it is Bt221 and in the other provinces Bt215. All parties must discuss the issue with the Central Wage Committee in the middle of the month before coming to any conclusion, he said. "I think things should become clear by October. We hope to see the new wage take effect on January 1," he said. The minimum wage in other provinces may rise by 40 per cent first and to Bt300 later, he added. TLSC is not happy about this, though. TLSC president Chalee Loysoong said all workers around the country were suffering from the rising cost of living and deserved a similar wage. In Phayao, the rate is just Bt159. On Monday, Chalee would present information on inflation, workers income and household expenses at a press conference to make clear why the Bt300 wage should be applied to all workers. Market Strategists: On September 14, the Central Wage Committee will meet to discuss the wage-hike plans. Nalin Chutchotitham nalin.c@kasikornbank.com Pannapong It-atthanon, who sits on the committee as a representative of employers, said small businesses would +662-470-3235 incur severe problems dealing with the governments move. Amonthep Chawla "If the government takes sides with workers, it will be hard amonthep.c@kasikornbank.com for us to do anything. The representatives of employers may walk out the first time the Central Wage Committee +662-470-6749 considers this issue but our boycott wont mean anything when the committee picks up the issue again. 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  6. 6. KBank Daily Update Sep 1, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country* Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 08/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production (MoM) JUL 0.50% -0.40% 0.70% 0.90% 08/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production (YoY) JUL 6.20% 3.80% 6.40% 6.50% 08/31/2011 06:00 SK Service Industry Output YoY JUL -- 3.80% 3.60% 3.50% 08/31/2011 06:00 SK Leading Index (YoY) JUL -- 2.00% 1.70% -- 08/31/2011 06:01 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey AUG -33 -31 -30 -- 08/31/2011 06:15 JN Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI AUG -- 51.9 52.1 -- 08/31/2011 06:50 JN Loans & Discounts Corp YoY JUL -- -1.60% -1.80% -- 08/31/2011 06:50 JN Industrial Production (MoM) JUL P 1.40% 0.60% 3.80% -- 08/31/2011 06:50 JN Industrial Production YOY% JUL P -1.90% -2.80% -1.70% -- 08/31/2011 08:30 JN Labor Cash Earnings YoY JUL -0.50% -0.10% -0.80% -0.70% 08/31/2011 09:00 PH GDP (YoY) 2Q 4.10% 3.40% 4.90% 4.60% 08/31/2011 09:00 PH GDP sa (QoQ) 2Q 1.20% 0.60% 1.90% -- 08/31/2011 09:00 SI Bank Loans & Advances (YoY) JUL -- 27.80% 26.20% -- 08/31/2011 09:00 SI M1 Money Supply (YoY) JUL -- 19.80% 19.40% -- 08/31/2011 09:00 SI M2 Money Supply (YoY) JUL -- 11.90% 10.70% -- 08/31/2011 11:00 JN Vehicle Production (YoY) JUL -- -8.90% -13.90% -- 08/31/2011 12:00 JN Construction Orders (YoY) JUL -- 5.70% 6.00% -- 08/31/2011 12:00 JN Annualized Housing Starts JUL 0.829M 0.955M 0.817M -- 08/31/2011 12:00 JN Housing Starts (YoY) JUL 4.90% 21.20% 5.80% -- 08/31/2011 13:00 GE Retail Sales (MoM) JUL -1.50% 0.00% 6.30% 4.50% 08/31/2011 13:00 GE Retail Sales (YoY) JUL -0.80% -1.60% -1.00% -2.10% 08/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Exports YOY% JUL -- 36.40% 16.40% -- 08/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Imports YOY% JUL -- 13.10% 23.50% -- 08/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Trade Balance JUL -- $2705M $1886M -- 08/31/2011 14:30 TH Current Account Balance (USD) JUL $3165M $3574M $2499M -- 08/31/2011 14:30 TH Overall Balance in US$ Million JUL -- $541M -$972M -- 08/31/2011 14:30 TH Business Sentiment Index JUL -- 51.2 53.1 -- 08/31/2011 14:55 GE Unemployment Change (000s) AUG -10K -8K -11K -10K 08/31/2011 14:55 GE Unemployment Rate (s.a) AUG 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% -- 08/31/2011 15:00 IT Unemployment Rate (SA) JUL P 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% -- 08/31/2011 16:00 EC Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) AUG 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% -- 08/31/2011 16:00 EC Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate JUL 9.90% 10.00% 9.90% 10.00% 08/31/2011 18:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Aug-26 -- -9.60% -2.40% -- 08/31/2011 18:30 US Challenger Job Cuts YoY AUG -- 47.00% 59.40% -- 08/31/2011 19:15 US ADP Employment Change AUG 100K 91K 114K 109K 08/31/2011 19:30 CA Quarterly GDP Annualized 2Q 0.00% -0.40% 3.90% 3.60% 08/31/2011 19:30 CA Gross Domestic Product MoM JUN 0.10% 0.20% -0.30% -- 08/31/2011 19:30 CA Gross Domestic Product YoY JUN 1.90% 2.00% 2.20% 2.00% 08/31/2011 20:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager AUG 53.3 56.5 58.8 -- 08/31/2011 21:00 US Factory Orders JUL 2.00% 2.40% -0.80% -0.40% 08/31/2011 21:00 US NAPM-Milwaukee AUG 52.7 58.3 57.6 -- Source: Bloomberg (EC – eurozone, SK – South Korea, SI – Singapore, IN – India, ID – Indonesia, AU – Australia, MA – Mlaysia, TH - Thailand, CH – China) 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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