KBank daily jan 31

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KBank daily jan 31

  1. 1. Capital Markets Research Jan 31, 2011Thai Stock Market Jan 28 Change US Market Jan 28 ChangeSET Index 981.83 -4.88 Dow Jones 11,823.70 -166.13Market Turnover (Bt mn) 27,296.12 -1,797.11 Nasdaq 2,686.89 -68.39Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) -727.14 -1,994.07 S&P 500 1,276.34 -23.20Thai Bond Market Jan 28 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.33 -6 bpTotal Return Index 200.39 -0.01 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.55 -4 bpTotal Market Turnover (Bt mn) NYMEX crude ($/b) 89.34 +3.70Change (bp) 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yrJan 28 (%) 2.06 2.11 2.29 2.54 2.97 3.22 3.43 3.64 3.85 4.04 4.14 4.23Change (bp) 3 2 2 0 2 2 4 1 1 2 1 1Interbank Rates Jan 31 Jan 27 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yrOvernight (%) 2.25 1.900-2.210 Jan 28 2.26250 2.28516 2.34375 2.39625 2.49750 2.55250 2.66594Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6mJan 28 2.25000 2.25000 - - Jan 28 0.27060 0.30900 0.46550THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6mJan 28 1.04947 0.94587 1.11452 1.48143 1.71964 1.95086 Jan 28 0.26000 0.30438 0.45381SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yrJan 31 Bid/Ask 1.85/1.90 2.54/2.59 3.04/3.07 3.35/3.40 3.61/3.65 3.91/3.96 4.15/4.20KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m)(against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/ImportUSD 30.93 31.03 31.28 -1.80/0.00EUR 41.9188 42.0538 42.5825 -5.90/-0.63GBP 48.9225 49.0813 49.6650 -4.25/-0.50JPY 0.3749 0.3761 0.3830 -3.09/1.99KBank Technical Analysis Jan 31 Jan 28 Support Resistance Trend StrategyTHB (Onshore) 31.18 31.03 31.00 31.25 Sideway Sell USD near resistanceJPY 82.07 82.1 81.50 82.60 Sideway Sell USD near resistanceEUR/USD 1.3592 1.3613 1.3530 1.3620 Sideway Sell EUR near resistance Macro and Market Outlook • Global stocks closed lower on Friday, led by the ongoing concerns of inflation in the developing economies and emerging markets while unrests in Egypt also played apart • US Q4 GDP rose by a below-consensus pace of 3.2%qoq annualized as inventory accumulation declined but private consumption showed strong growth • Thailand’s manufacturing production index decline 2.5% yoy on the back of slow down in certain industry’s production but trend remained positive FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD lowered to 1.360 as the dollar gained amid poor risk appetite in the market. USD/JPY fell below 82.00 on the back of safe haven demand after unrests in Egypt escalated and outcome is still unpredictable. JPY/THB had climbed to its highest in about 13 months’ time and is testing higher still this morning • USD/THB clos USD/THB broke new high to 31.09 in the afternoon on Friday, equivalent to about 3.3% weaker against the U.S. dollar, since the New Year. We see a likelihood of USD/THB testing 31.50 in the next few weeks Economic News Update • China may order its biggest lenders, including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp., to raise capital ratios to as high as 14 percent when credit growth is judged excessive Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein wasobtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  2. 2. KBank Daily Update Jan 31, 2011 is likely to have expanded by more than 7.8% (up from Macro and Market Outlook 7.5%) in the year 2010, in line with the BoT’s forecast of an Global stocks closed lower on Friday, led by the ongoing 8.0% growth. The December manufacturing production concerns of inflation in the developing economies and index (MPI) dropped 0.10% mom and 2.5% yoy. Capacity emerging markets while unrests in Egypt also played a utilization rate declined to 63.4% from 63.6% in November part. According to some news reports, the events in Tunisia and the average of 63.7% in the fourth quarter. may have inspired current unrests in Egypt, stoking fear that unhappiness arising from economic hardship and US Treasuries and Thai rates higher food prices may cause the long-suppressed political issues to escalate into unrests among the North African and Middle East nations. Treasuries headed for their first monthly gain since September, while Japanese and Australian bonds rose, as Gold rebounded to around $1,342/ounce this morning, after protests in Egypt fueled demand for the relative safety of last week’s slump to $1,313/ounce but there is little support government debt. in the near term as investors’ shifted to stocks. Crude oil U.S. two-year yields were near the lowest level in seven declined to below $86/barrel last week on news of possible weeks as Asian stocks slid and crude oil advanced. The production increase among OPEC nations but quickly rose Federal Reserve is scheduled to buy $6 billion to $8 billion to above $90/barrel this morning on concerns in Egypt. of notes due from August 2013 to December 2014 today as part of its plan to spur the economy. % QoQ saar 8 Benchmark 10-year Treasuries yielded 3.32 percent as of 6 9:38 a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. 4 Two-year notes yielded 0.54 percent. The rate declined to 2 0.53 percent earlier today, the lowest level since Dec. 8. 0 (Source: Bloomberg) -2 Government expenditure -4 Net exports S&P Index (bp) -6 Private investment 1350 300 -8 Private consumption GDP Growth 1300 280 -10 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 1250 260 1200 240 1150 U.S. economic update – was Q4 GDP was slightly below 220 1100 the market’s estimate of a 3.5% qoq saar increase. The 1050 200 actual reading turned out to be at 3.2% but a positive sign 1000 180 is that private consumption rose strongly by 4.4% (forecast Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 4.0%). The drag on the GDP in the last quarter had been the decline in inventories. The remaining worry seems to S&P Index 2-10 Spread (bps, RHS) be the underlying inflation rate – reflect by the core private consumption expenditure which rose by the slowest pace Thai interest rate: IRS yields traded lower again as the since around the year 1960 at 0.4% qoq saar. overnight and two-day swap points reverted to a discount again. Bond yields rose by 2-3bp on Friday on average, Meanwhile, consumer sentiment index (U. mainly driven by local investors’ selling of mid-curve bonds Michigan/Reuters) was not as bad as earlier predicted. The after the Bank of Thailand’s announcement of an measured was forecasted to fall to 73.3 after the 74.5 unexpected Bt15bn of 4-year bond issuance in February. reading in December but actual figure was 74.2. % For this Friday’s big number – the non-farm payrolls – 4.5 the market expects an increase of 140,000 jobs (Dec 4.0 103,000), but unlikely a number that is strong enough to 3.5 bring down unemployment rate significantly, in line with the 3.0 FOMC statement last week which still see a weak labor 2.5 market in the U.S. and hence, Q.E.2 is likely to remain in 2.0 place. 1.5 120 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 110 100 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 90 80 70 bps Mid-curve government bond yield spread 60 80 50 70 40 60 30 50 20 40 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 30 Conference Board Consumer Confidence index Consumer sentiment index (U Mich) 20 10 0 Thailand economic update - MoF raised GDP growth May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 forecast for Q4 from 3.5% to 4.5%, citing better-than- expected economic numbers. It said that the Thai economy LB155A - LB196A spread LB133A - LB155A spread 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  3. 3. KBank Daily Update Jan 31, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Fri 28-Jan-11 Thu 27-Jan-11 % Change 1.42 1.40 USD/THB 31.03 30.90 +0.42 1.38 USD/JPY 81.97 82.86 -1.07 1.36 EUR/USD 1.360 1.373 -0.95 1.34 GBP/USD 1.5856 1.5921 -0.41 1.32 1.30 USD/CHF 0.9079 0.9453 -3.96 1.28 USD/SGD 1.2847 1.2787 +0.47 1.26 USD/TWD 29.05 29.03 +0.06 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 USD/KRW 1,115.6 1,114.3 +0.12 EUR/USD USD/PHP 44.08 44.19 -0.25 EUR/USD lowered to 1.360 as the dollar gained amid USD/IDR 9,080 9,022 +0.64 poor risk appetite in the market. USD/MYR 3.054 3.052 +0.08 USD/CNY 6.586 6.582 +0.06 39.00 80 Source: Reuters 82 .FX Consensus Forecast 38.00 84 Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 37.00 86 36.00 88 USD/THB 31.18 28.30 28.00 90 USD/JPY 82.14 86.00 88.50 35.00 92 34.00 EUR/USD 1.36 1.29 1.30 94 33.00 96 GBP/USD 1.59 1.55 1.60 1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov 1-Jan USD/CNY 6.59 6.46 6.30 JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/SGD 1.29 1.27 1.24 USD/JPY fell below 82.00 on the back of safe haven USD/IDR 9,055 8,900 8,800 demand after unrests in Egypt escalated and outcome is USD/MYR 3.06 3.02 2.96 still unpredictable. JPY/THB had climbed to its highest in USD/PHP 44.29 42.50 41.50 about 13 months’ time and is testing higher still this morning. USD/KRW 1,123 1,088 1,050 USD/TWD 29.03 28.65 28.45 31.30 31.10 AUD/USD 0.99 0.99 0.98 30.90 NZD/USD 0.77 0.77 0.76 30.70 Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB 30.50 30.30 Currency Pair Targets 30.10 Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 29.90 29.70 USD/THB 31.18 28.30 28.0 29.50 EUR/THB 42.38 40.0 37.0 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 JPY/THB 37.90 34.70 29.5 USD/THB GBP/THB 49.35 47.40 43.7 USD/THB broke new high to 31.09 in the afternoon on Friday, equivalent to about 3.3% weaker against the U.S. CNY/THB 4.73 4.78 4.2 dollar, 5.9% against the euro, and 1.4% against the AUD/THB 30.89 27.4 26.0 Japanese yen since the New Year. CHF/THB 33.11 29.6 27.7 Source: KBank, Bloomberg We see a likelihood of USD/THB testing 31.50 in the next few weeks, should market view for the baht remained KBank NEER Index negative and foreigners continue to take money off the Current 98.86 Thai stock market. YTD + 6.16% Sentiment for risky assets remained capped this morning vs 52 weeks ago + 5.23% as investors flocked to safe haven assets due to concerns vs 1mth ago - 2.24% of unrests in Europe. This morning, the baht is following vs 1 week ago - 0.14% regional currencies weaker. vs 1 day ago - 0.08% vs long term average + 11.16% Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  4. 4. KBank Daily Update Jan 31, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT Bonds Jan 28 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB113A 2.10 2.12 2.14 2.15 2.17 2.18 2.20 2.22 1.98 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB116A 2.72 2.62 2.52 2.43 2.33 2.24 2.14 2.04 1.70 CB11215A 0.04 85,000 2.080/2.143 2.130440 0.96 LB11NA 3.60 3.33 3.06 2.79 2.53 2.26 1.99 1.72 1.20 Source: ThaiBMA LB123A 4.22 3.85 3.48 3.11 2.73 2.36 1.99 1.62 1.00 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB12NA 5.36 4.75 4.14 3.52 2.91 2.30 1.68 1.07 0.21 LB133A 6.04 5.30 4.56 3.82 3.08 2.33 1.59 0.85 -0.14 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB137A 6.60 5.74 4.87 4.01 3.15 2.28 1.42 0.55 -0.56 LB13OA 7.04 6.08 5.12 4.16 3.20 2.24 1.28 0.32 -0.88 CB11303DA 0.08 25,000 01-Feb-11 03-Mar-11 - LB143A 7.39 6.37 5.34 4.32 3.30 2.27 1.25 0.22 -1.05 CB11506C 0.25 22,000 01-Feb-11 06-May-11 - LB145A 7.96 6.81 5.66 4.51 3.37 2.22 1.07 -0.08 -1.47 CB11804B 0.50 15,000 01-Feb-11 04-Aug-11 - LB145B 7.96 6.81 5.66 4.51 3.37 2.22 1.07 -0.07 -1.47 CB12202A 1.00 50,000 01-Feb-11 02-Feb-12 - LB14DA 8.75 7.42 6.08 4.75 3.41 2.08 0.75 -0.59 -2.17 BOT142A 3.00 15,000 11-Feb-11 15-Feb-14 - LB155A 9.53 8.01 6.48 4.96 3.44 1.92 0.40 -1.12 -2.89 BOT152A 4.00 15,000 22-Feb-11 24-Feb-11 - LB157A 9.39 7.90 6.42 4.94 3.46 1.97 0.49 -0.99 -2.72 Source: ThaiBMA LB15DA 10.37 8.65 6.92 5.19 3.46 1.74 0.01 -1.72 -3.69 LB167A 10.97 9.11 7.25 5.40 3.54 1.69 -0.17 -2.02 -4.12 LB16NA 11.51 9.53 7.54 5.56 3.57 1.59 -0.40 -2.38 -4.61 LB171A 11.60 9.61 7.62 5.63 3.64 1.65 -0.34 -2.33 -4.57 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months LB175A 12.13 10.01 7.89 5.77 3.66 1.54 -0.58 -2.69 -5.06 during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury cash balance. LB183A 13.21 10.83 8.45 6.08 3.70 1.32 -1.05 -3.43 -6.05 LB183B 12.92 10.61 8.31 6.00 3.70 1.40 -0.90 -3.21 -5.76 LB191A 13.89 11.34 8.80 6.26 3.72 1.18 -1.36 -3.90 -6.68 LB196A 14.83 12.06 9.28 6.50 3.73 0.95 -1.82 -4.59 -7.61 LB198A 14.39 11.74 9.08 6.43 3.78 1.13 -1.52 -4.16 -7.06 LB19DA 14.94 12.16 9.38 6.60 3.83 1.05 -1.72 -4.50 -7.52 LB213A 16.07 13.03 9.99 6.95 3.92 0.88 -2.16 -5.19 -8.47 LB214A 15.96 12.96 9.96 6.96 3.96 0.97 -2.03 -5.02 -8.27 LB22NA 18.04 14.55 11.05 7.56 4.07 0.57 -2.92 -6.40 -10.14 LB233A 18.11 14.61 11.11 7.61 4.11 0.62 -2.88 -6.37 -10.11 LB236A 19.56 15.69 11.83 7.97 4.12 0.26 -3.60 -7.45 -11.55 LB244A 19.68 15.79 11.91 8.04 4.16 0.28 -3.59 -7.46 -11.58 LB24DA 20.29 16.27 12.24 8.22 4.19 0.17 -3.84 -7.86 -12.12 LB267A 20.80 16.66 12.52 8.38 4.24 0.11 -4.03 -8.16 -12.53 LB283A 22.04 17.60 13.15 8.71 4.27 -0.17 -4.60 -9.03 -13.71 LB296A 23.76 18.88 14.02 9.15 4.29 -0.57 -5.42 -10.28 -15.37 LB383A 27.96 22.06 16.15 10.26 4.37 -1.52 -7.40 -13.28 -19.40 LB396A 29.28 23.05 16.83 10.61 4.39 -1.82 -8.02 -14.22 -20.66 Average 13.00 10.65 8.29 5.94 3.59 1.24 -1.11 -3.46 -6.05 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  5. 5. KBank Daily Update Jan 31, 2011 An earlier version of the rules would have required China’s Economic News Update biggest banks to have capital adequacy ratios of 11 percent to 15 percent by the end of 2012, a person with China Said to Plan Raising Ratio If Credit knowledge of that proposal said in September. That Excessive: China may order its biggest lenders, compares with ratios from 11.5 percent to 14 percent including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and stipulated by the latest proposal. China Construction Bank Corp., to raise capital ratios to as high as 14 percent when credit growth is judged excessive, The previous version also called for Tier 1 capital of 8 said a person familiar with the matter. percent. The new proposal’s requirement for Tier 1 capital, which includes common equity, retained profits and Newly proposed rules would require increasing capital perpetual preferred stock, is 6 percent, same as the Basel adequacy buffers by as much as 2.5 percentage points rules, according to the person. when the banking regulator determines loan growth to be too fast, said the person, declining to be identified as the (Source: Bloomberg) plan isn’t public. In normal conditions, lenders deemed systemically important will need to have a minimum 11.5 percent ratio, unchanged from the current requirement for China’s biggest banks, said the person. China is tightening oversight of banks, limiting mortgages and raising interest rates to prevent a record $2.7 trillion of credit extended in the past two years from inflating asset bubbles that may saddle lenders with bad loans. Some banks may need to raise additional capital to meet the new requirements, the person said. “This shows further tightening as the regulator worries about excessive lending,” Xu Guangfu, an analyst at Xiangcai Securities Co. in Shanghai, said by telephone. “The banking sector’s valuation is already depressed and this may drag it lower. The market will be more concerned about those banks that were lending aggressively.” An official with the regulator’s news department, who declined to be identified because of the agency’s rules, said a decision hasn’t yet been made on the ratios and that the process is still ongoing. Under the China Banking Regulatory Commission’s proposed rules, systemically important banks will have to comply with the capital ratio requirements by the end of 2013, three years earlier than other lenders, the person said. China’s five biggest banks, which also include the Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., Bank of China Ltd. and Bank of Communications Co., are currently deemed systemically important, the person said. All banks would be required to have a capital adequacy ratio of at least 8 percent, with an additional 2.5 percentage points as a buffer during normal credit conditions, the person said. Systemically important banks would need to maintain an additional percentage point, the person said. During periods when loan growth is too fast, the regulator will require all lenders to increase their ratios by as much as 2.5 percentage points, the person said. It isn’t immediately clear what standards would be used for determining when credit expansion is excessive, the person said. Regulators are taking advantage of record bank profits and Market Strategists: double-digit economic growth to set stricter rules at a faster Nalin Chutchotitham pace than agreements announced in July by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. China’s economy, set Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com to surpass Japan’s to become the world’s second biggest, grew 10.3 percent in 2010, the fastest pace in three years, Tel: 02-470-3235 according to government data. 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  6. 6. KBank Daily Update Jan 31, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Jobless Rate DEC 5.10% 4.90% 5.10% -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Job-To-Applicant Ratio DEC 0.58 0.57 0.57 -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Overall Hhold Spending (YoY) DEC -0.60% -3.30% -0.40% -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Tokyo CPI YoY JAN -0.20% -0.10% -0.20% -0.10% 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY JAN -0.30% -0.20% -0.40% -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY JAN -0.50% -0.30% -0.50% -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Natl CPI YoY DEC -0.10% 0.00% 0.10% -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Natl CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY DEC -0.50% -0.40% -0.50% -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY DEC -0.80% -0.70% -0.90% -- 01/28/2011 06:50 JN Retail Trade MoM SA DEC -1.40% -4.10% 1.90% 2.10% 01/28/2011 06:50 JN Retail Trade YoY DEC 0.60% -2.00% 1.30% 1.50% 01/28/2011 06:50 JN Large Retailers Sales DEC -0.50% -1.80% 0.20% 0.10% 01/28/2011 07:01 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey JAN -22 -29 -21 -- 01/28/2011 08:35 CH MNI Business Condition Survey JAN -- 61.11 62.08 -- 01/28/2011 14:00 TH Mfg. Production Index ISIC (YoY) DEC 0.65 -2.48 5.61 5.65 01/28/2011 14:00 TH Mfg. Production Index ISIC (SA) DEC -- 190.83 189.21 189.09 01/28/2011 14:00 TH Total Capacity Utilization ISIC DEC -- 63.4 63.6 -- 01/28/2011 14:30 TH Foreign Reserves Jan-21 -- $174.4B $174.1B -- 01/28/2011 14:30 TH Forward Contracts Jan-21 -- $18.4B $18.1B -- 01/28/2011 15:20 TA Bounced Check Ratio DEC -- 0.17% 0.17% -- 01/28/2011 16:00 EC Euro-Zone M3 s.a. 3 mth ave. DEC 1.60% 1.60% 1.30% 1.40% 01/28/2011 16:00 EC Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) DEC 1.90% 1.70% 1.90% 2.10% 01/28/2011 16:00 IT Hourly Wages (MoM) DEC 0.20% 0.10% 0.20% -- 01/28/2011 16:00 IT Hourly Wages (YoY) DEC 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% -- 01/28/2011 17:00 IT Consumer Confidence Ind. sa JAN 109 105.9 109.1 -- 26-28 JAN VN Industrial Output YTD (YoY) JAN -- -- 14.00% -- 26-28 JAN VN Retail Sales YTD (YoY) JAN -- -- 24.50% -- 01/28/2011 20:30 US Employment Cost Index 4Q 0.50% 0.40% 0.40% -- 01/28/2011 20:30 US GDP QoQ (Annualized) 4Q A 3.50% 3.20% 2.60% -- 01/28/2011 20:30 US GDP Price Index 4Q A 1.60% 0.30% 2.10% -- 01/28/2011 20:30 US Core PCE QoQ 4Q A 0.40% 0.40% 0.50% -- 01/28/2011 20:30 US Personal Consumption 4Q A 4.00% 4.40% 2.40% -- 01/28/2011 21:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence JAN F 73.3 74.2 72.7 -- 01/31/2011 04:00 SK Business Survey- Manufacturing FEB -- 91 92 -- 01/31/2011 04:00 SK Business Survey- Non-Manufacturing FEB -- 84 87 -- 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Service Industry Output YoY DEC -- 2.10% 3.60% 3.80% 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production Mfg(YoY) DEC -- 9.90% 10.60% 10.90% 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production (MoM) DEC 2.60% 2.80% 1.40% 1.50% 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production (YoY) DEC 9.90% 9.80% 10.40% 10.70% 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Leading Index (YoY) DEC -- 2.30% 2.60% 2.50% 01/31/2011 06:15 JN Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI JAN -- 51.4 48.3 -- Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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