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Creative destruction of university

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A keynote given in the Future Learning conference of Pori International Week.

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Creative destruction of university

  1. 1. Creative Destruction of University Jyrki J.J. Kasvi – @jyrkikasvi Parliament of Finland – @SuomenEduskunta Information Society Development Centre TIEKE – @tiekery Future Learning – International Week – March 8th 2016
  2. 2. Digitalisation is revolutionising our economy, work and education ATM’s, Wikipedia, milking robots and Spotify were just a humble beginning
  3. 3. 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 3 You had robot milked milk in your latte. Image: Lely
  4. 4. Image: Energid Technologies Field is a much easier environment for a robot than a road. Image: Energid Technologies Soon you’ll eat robot manufactured food. 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 4
  5. 5. When Hitachi replaced its logistics foremen with an A.I., storemen work efficiency went up by 8%. Ken Teegardin, CC BY-SA 2.0 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 5
  6. 6. Who needs stock brokers, when algorithms dominate securities trading? CC BY 2.0 Rafael Matsunaga - Flickr 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 6
  7. 7. A.I.’s are already replacing attorney assistants in the U.S.
  8. 8. Are universities reactive or proactive? Do we research and educate our past or future?
  9. 9. Which faculty did the first Finnish academic dissertation about computer gaming culture? Quetion:
  10. 10. Economic crises come and go while megatrends change our World Digitalisation explodes job productivity - Moore’s law starts to be have a real impact - Several disruptive technologies emerge at the same time - Robotisation automates manual jobs and agriculture - Artificial intelligences automate intellectual jobs - Internet of Things integrates everything - Global pecking order will be reorganized Global demographics are changing - Industrial countries are growing old - Baby boomers of developing countries are entering national job markets Globalization networks the world - New economies become superpowers - China becomes the Centre of the World, again Environmental costs are rising - Prices of nonrenewables - Reducing emissions - Adapting to climate change Challenges The opportunity 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 10
  11. 11. 9.3.2016 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 11 Image: Cyberdyne Exosceletons replace rollators and enhance mobility Megatrends intertwine
  12. 12. Megatrend competency requirements Technology and production management competencies - Robotics, algorithms and AI’s - Algorithmic thinking - Media literacy and creation - Digital social capital - Knowledge management and analysis - Cyber security - Privacy protection - Cross dicipline combinations (e.g. smart buildings) - Change management - Open minded creativity Care, gerontology - Care robotics and technologies - Usability and accessibility - Geriatry, psychiatry for the aged Global networking - Languages, cultural literacy - Consumer oriented service design - Logistics Environmental competencies - Energy and material efficiency - Bio and gene technologies - Community design, transport Challenges The opportunity 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 12
  13. 13. During the next two years the calculating power of our computers is going to double. We ain’t seen nothing, yet.
  14. 14. Digitalisation is only just beginning  The steam engine invented in the late 17th century revolutinalised economies and societies in the early 19th century  Education, labour market, politics, economy, family, …  E.g. schools are still following an industrial paradigm  E.g. our immaterial property rights system with patents and copyrights  Digital technology invented on the 1940’s is now reshaping our societies and economies even more quickly and profoundly  What is the home, school, work place, labour union, … of 2080’s like?  In 20 years time, one third of our current jobs are going to be taken care by robots and artificial intelligences, the rest require new competencies and totally new professions emerge  The barriers between education, work and retirement are breaking 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 14
  15. 15. A kid going to schnool this year is going to be working until 2080’s. Our kids live in the future – our education system has to be there too.
  16. 16. 2080’s – When you go as far in history, computers looked like this. US Army Photo
  17. 17. What does this mean for education? Debating the number of religion lessons in primary schools won’t help!
  18. 18. Creative destruction of economy  A radically new technology or a new business model (made possible by new technology) rapidly replaces old business models and destroys business ecosystems relying on them  While CD’s did not destroy the old music industry as its business model was the same as with LP’s, mp3’s rapidly killed physical record shops, only to be replaced itself with mobile streaming services like Spotify.  ATM’s and web banks replaced physical bank offices  In 1970’s Finland had some 300.000 lumberjacks, now only 3.500 harvester pilots  Markets have inertia  If no-one challenges the status quo, old business may survive for a while  Regulation of old business models often prohibits new ones – 80% of radical innovations are initially illegal or outside regulation  Interest groups representing old business models have strong lobbying positions  When dichotomy between old business models and new technology becomes too great, markets start circumventing regulation 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 18
  19. 19. Digitalisation is bitter medicine In addition to old business models old jobs are becoming extinct
  20. 20. 10 professions most likely to disappear in Finland 1. Telemarketers and phone service providers (8 713) 2. Record keepers (326) 3. Photo product process workers (216) 4. Forwarders, customs and ship handlers (2 985) 5. Accounts and records experts (25 036) 6. Packing, bottling and labeling machine handlers (5 456) 7. Classifiers and quality controllers (excl. food and drink) (2 342) 8. Legal secretaries (885) 9. Models (70) 10. Salary accountants (4 964) Pajarinen M. & Rouvinen P. (2014) Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment. 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 20
  21. 21. 10 professions most likely to survive in Finland 1. Head and ward nurses (5 666) 2. High school and primary school upper class teachers (23 280) 3. Health care managers (975) 4. Education managers (4 021) 5. Psychologists (4 548) 6. Social service managers (2 280) 7. Hearing analysts and speech therapeutists (1 170) 8. Learning method specialists (6 072) 9. Hotel managers (436) 10. Nutrition specialists (413) Pajarinen M. & Rouvinen P. (2014) Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment. Omenahotelli? AirBnB? 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 21
  22. 22. Image: Zenrobotics Digitalisation also creates jobs and profession, for example in recycling. 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 22
  23. 23. Creative destruction of nations  Accelerating digitalisation is redealing the cards of world economy and influence  It is not self-evident that Finland and other old industrial nations become new digital nations  Nations have to reinvent themselves in order to prevail  All sectors of economy and society are facing as painful a restructuring as media industry has gone through.  New processes and business models are more important than the new technologies (that enable the new processes and business models).  Digitalisation is the only chance Finland has  As many jobs and professions have to be eliminated with automation as possible  New flexible income and education paradigms are needed 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 23
  24. 24. yhteensä. 9.3.2016 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 24 New challengers In 2012 African mobile payment markets were bigger than U.S. and EU combined (61.5 billion euros). Kenya looks forward to open a cargo drone route by 2016.
  25. 25. E.g. mobile payments – insurmountable in Finland TimoSImell 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 25
  26. 26. Finland does not prevail by scrapping ATM’s and milking robots … … and distributing hand saws and milking stools to people. 9.3.2016 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 26
  27. 27. Creative destruction of university  Universities need to address their rapidly changing world  Competency requirements of work and life are changing  Changing society requires research and analysis for guidance  Students needs, skills and lives are changing  Universities are competing on a global playing field  Staff and students do not settle for second best in the world  MOOC’s give anyone access to world class academic education  Universities need to innovate themselves  Digital technologies facilitate new pedagogy and work processes  New pedagogical methods challenge old educational paradigms  Sooner or later someone reinvents the university ‘business model’ and replaces our old educational ecosystem 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 27
  28. 28. Universities are pivotal competency creators But those competencies must answer to students’ and society’s needs 9.3.2016 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 28
  29. 29. Learning in 2030’s  Walls between learning and work will break  One day in a week as a trainer, another one as a trainee  Walls between disciplines will break  Innovations take place on boundaries where different people meet  Walls do not restrict learning to certain times or places  University is more like a state of mind than a physical place  Walls between education and learning break  Learning is a communal activity with weak hierarchies  IC technologies become mundane learning tools  IC Technology is not emphasised more than doors or windows  Focus on pedagogy and ways of action enabled by IC technology 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 29
  30. 30. E.g. Aalto university does not (yet) have a humanistic faculty E.g. the famous M.I.T. does … The reason why Finland produces so few consumer products?
  31. 31. Students of the future  Ritalin and other brain doping substances are coming  In Germany, every fifth student is using chemicals to improve academic performance. In field related to sports, every fourth.  Students are working, entrepreneurs, unemployed and/or retired  In a rapidly changing world you cannot quit learning  Precariat flex careers include several profession, i.e. several degrees or corresponding education  Students are becoming connected cyborgs  Soon we are not fiddling with smart phones but living in augmented realities  Sensors, implants, smart glasses etc. are emerging  Turning cyborg’s gadgets off corresponds to amputation Dietz P., Striegel H., Franke A., Lieb K., Simon P. & Ulrich R. (2013) Randomized Response Estimates for the 12-Month Prevalence of Cognitive- Enhancing Drug Use in University Students. Pharmacotherapy: The Journal of Human Pharmacology and Drug Therapy. Vol 33,/1, p 44-50. 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 31
  32. 32. Precariat life is flexible and fractured 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Studying Working Care ”Free” time Timeused Not to mention sabbaticals, rehabilitation, positions of trust, volunteering, unemployment etc. 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 32
  33. 33. Syöpä 0 10 20 30 40 50 >> Koulu Teekkari DI Tutkija Lapsi (KH)(tekn) Valtuutettu (pj) ked Scifi, fantasia, sarjakuva, burleski, sienestys, melonta, valokuvaus Kirjat TkT Soft Tieke Kolumnisti, blogisti EU Luennoija, kouluttaja, opettaja Maria Ilmari MB C= Pelit ? Kaislaranta Kirjat ked
  34. 34. Digital university  Course books are being replaced by crowdsourced digital materials  Learning materials are now cheaper than ever before  Lectures are being replaced by peer networking  Some courses have regressed to email letter courses  Universities’, researchers’, teachers’ and students’ performances are going to be constantly monitored and analysed  How to provide informed feedback and guidance cost-effectively?  Constant comparision with the best educators in the world  MOOC’s are challenging traditional degree based education  Degree guarantees only that your competencies are outdated  A degree is a permission to participate in updating education 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 34
  35. 35. Challenges to universities  Univerisities have to earn their autonomy  Universities have to provide their students competencies required for success in rapidly changing future job markets – E.g. Finnish teacher education has fallen badly behind digitalisation of society  Growing tension between research society needs and science for science’s sake  Is university a local service?  There is no national series for universities, only world cup  Are universities education politics, industrial politics or regional politics?  University no longer an academic career choice but a phase in life  More staff movement between universities and rest of the society  In addition to academic output, indicators and funding should address student satisfaction, employment and entrepreneurship  How to take into account merits earned outside universities in recruitment? 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 35
  36. 36. The three missions  Scientific research  Open science challenges traditional academic practices and culture  Research cooperation with private companies with IPR and trade secrets  Project funding leads to applied research with predefined results  Funding and administration steal time from research and teaching  Highest education  Substance competency does not guarantee pedagogic competency nor innovation  Tension between researcher education and professional education  Compatibility of degree contents and work life requirements  Social influence  Universities have to address the growing anti-science sentiment of our society  Indicators and funding do not include participation in public discussion  Universities have to be determined in defend of researchers’ freedom of expression 9.3.2016 @jyrkikasvi 36
  37. 37. Do not worry too much Future is going to be different than we can imagine.
  38. 38. 30.9.2010 www.kasvi.org 38 Sukupuolten välinen digikuilu? Discussion U.S. Army Photo

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