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MLB: Advanced Cash Game Strategy

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MLB: Advanced Cash Game Strategy

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MLB: Advanced Cash Game Strategy

  1. 1. Course 3: MLB Strategy Advanced Cash Game Strategy www.rotoql.com 1
  2. 2. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Lesson Overview Desired outcome is to create a lineup with a high floor and high expected value. We can accomplish this through the following levers: I. Pitcher selection: key stats, vegas, salary distribution II. Hitter selection: key stats, vegas, weather & ballpark factors III. Lineup construction: salary distribution, stacking, using an optimizer 2
  3. 3. I. Pitcher Selection 3
  4. 4. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Pitcher Selection: Key Stats Stat Notes Pitch Count Higher pitch count = more opportunity for high floor Innings Pitched (IP) High (IP) = more opportunity for high floor Strikeout Rate / Opp. Rate Look for high-strikeout probability Pitcher wOBA Larger sample size is more indicative Opposing Team wOBA Larger sample size is more indicative Weather Beware of bad weather conditions 4
  5. 5. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Pitcher Selection: Using Vegas Stat Notes Projected Team Win Ex. Clayton Kershaw -220 moneyline Expected Runs Against Suggest predicted runs allowed Strikeout Player Props Usually don’t get released until the day of game Ex. David Price (Bos) vs. Houston 5
  6. 6. II. Hitter Selection 6
  7. 7. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Hitter Selection: Key Stats Stat Notes Batting Order 1-5 lineup spots are safer plays, more opportunities Handedness Splits Use Matchup wOBA (exclusively on RotoQL) Weather and Ballpark Factors Coors Field and Other Park Indicators Platoon Players Tend to be cheap salary, limits floor and upside 7
  8. 8. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Hitter Selection: Using Vegas Stat Notes Team Expected Runs Suggest predicted runs scored Over/Under Best games with high predicted FPTs Player Props Usually don’t get released until the day of game 8
  9. 9. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com PA/G vs Batting Order Source: Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy 9
  10. 10. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Average Batting by Split Source: Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy 10
  11. 11. www.rotoql.com Source: Sports Baseball America www.rotoql.com Hitter Selection: Weather & Ballpark Factors 11
  12. 12. III. Lineup Construction 12
  13. 13. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Lineup Construction: Key Elements Stat Notes Salary Distribution Pitchers are more consistent Stacking Still a viable strategy in many situations Late Swap Strategy H2H - Be aware of available late swaps Using an Optimizer Build through RotoQL 13
  14. 14. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Salary Distribution Source: Daily Roto 14
  15. 15. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Stacking vs Outcome [DraftKings] Source: DraftKings Playbook 15
  16. 16. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com DraftKings Late Swap Strategy ● Be aware of swap opportunities in these contests Scenario: ● Losing in H2H contest, switch out a similar player for differentiated one 16
  17. 17. www.rotoql.com Prepared Exclusively for Recipientwww.rotoql.com Using an Optimizer ● Optimizing lineup combinations requires an optimizer to get best value ● Multiple lineups - manage with RotoQL’s player exposure to stay in control 17

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