Sgcp13smith

205 views

Published on

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Sgcp13smith

  1. 1. Connected, secure, two-way grid assetsRichard SmithHead of Energy Strategy & Policy5th Annual Smart Grids & Cleanpower 2013 Conference5 June 2013 Cambridgewww.cir-strategy.com/events/cleanpower
  2. 2. 2The changing gridIFAFrance2GWexisting electricity networkpotential wind farm sitespotential nuclear sitesinterconnectorsFrance2GWBritnedNetherlands1.2GWBelgium1GWNorway1.4GWEast-WestIreland500MWMoyleIreland500MW*Denmark1GWArrows are illustrative and do not show connection points.Cumulative contracted generation (GW)01020304050607080901002013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025*Interconnector Renewable Non-renewableSource: National Grid TNQCU – March 2013.* No new contracted generation after 2025.Renewable fuel types: Biomass, Hydro, Tidal, Wave, Wind
  3. 3. 3The need for a smarter system:B6 boundary exampleBoundary B6 is the boundary betweenSP transmission and NGET.Scotland typically contains an excess ofgeneration leading to mostly north-south power flows as the most likelystress condition.Current capability is limited to around3.3GWSource: National Grid Electricity Ten Year Statement – November 2012.
  4. 4. 4The need for a smarter system:B6 boundary exampleBoundary B6 is the boundary betweenSP transmission and NGET.Scotland typically contains an excess ofgeneration leading to mostly north-south power flows as the most likelystress condition.Current capability is limited to around3.3GWSolutions:¾  Invest in primary assets to deliver physical capability eg:¾  Harker–Hutton, Eccles–Stella West and Strathaven–Harker series compensation.¾  2.4GW Western HVDC link (submarine HVDC cable route from Deeside to Hunterston).¾  ~2 GW Eastern HVDC link (submarine HVDC cable route from Peterhead to Hawthorn Pit via Torness.¾  Harker–Strathaven reconductoring and series compensationCapability gap RIIO-T1 Capability gap RIIO-T2+Source: National Grid Electricity Ten Year Statement – November 2012.
  5. 5. 5The need for a smarter system:B6 boundary exampleBoundary B6 is the boundary betweenSP transmission and NGET.Scotland typically contains an excess ofgeneration leading to mostly north-south power flows as the most likelystress condition.Current capability is limited to around3.3GWSolutions:¾  Invest in primary assets to deliver physical capability¾  Invest in secondary assets to enhance capability eg:¾  Circuit rating enhancement¾  Risk management¾  Condition monitoring¾  Remote asset management and monitoringCapability gap RIIO-T1 Capability gap RIIO-T2+RIIO-T1 investment potentialSource: National Grid Electricity Ten Year Statement – November 2012.
  6. 6. 6The need for a smarter system:B6 boundary exampleBoundary B6 is the boundary betweenSP transmission and NGET.Scotland typically contains an excess ofgeneration leading to mostly north-south power flows as the most likelystress condition.Current capability is limited to around3.3GWSolutions:¾  Invest in primary assets to deliver physical capability¾  Invest in secondary assets to enhance capability¾  Invest in commercial solutions:¾  Flex generation¾  Interconnection¾  Storage¾  Demand managementSource: National Grid Electricity Ten Year Statement – November 2012.Capability gap RIIO-T1 Capability gap RIIO-T2+RIIO-T1 investment potential
  7. 7. 7Flex generation2012 generation capacity(86.9GW)*Gas / CHP Coal NuclearOffshore wind Onshore wind Other renewableOther (inc oil)2030 generation capacity(139.8GW)*Gas / CHP Coal NuclearOffshore wind Onshore wind Other renewableOther (inc oil)Source: National Grid Gone Green 2012 scenario.* Excludes interconnection & pumped storage.~75%flexible thermal~40%flexible thermal
  8. 8. 8Interconnection & storage (grid scale)Interconnectors StorageSource: National Grid Gone Green scenario analysis.0.0010.010.111010010000.1 1 10 100 10000.010.001Power (MW)Stored Energy (MWh)1 hour10 hours1minute1secondDinorwig0.0010.010.111010010000.1 1 10 100 10000.010.001Power (MW)Stored Energy (MWh)1 hour10 hours1minute1secondDinorwigCapacitorFlywheelsBatteriesDiesel GeneratorsSuperconducting MagnetsPumped StorageTechnologiesCapacitorFlywheelsBatteriesDiesel GeneratorsSuperconducting MagnetsPumped StorageTechnologies Applications/MarketsUninterruptible Power SuppliesLarge ArbitrageReserveSmall ArbitragePower QualityTraction SuppliesElectric VehiclesUninterruptible Power SuppliesLarge ArbitrageReserveSmall ArbitragePower QualityTraction SuppliesElectric Vehicles
  9. 9. 9Demand managementAverage consumer demand profile for winter peak ~2010Source: Load Research Limited (excluding Economy 7 demand).HeatTVsFridges /freezersConsumer electronicsLightingCookingHeat pumps and electric vehicles will dominate the demand profile in 2030Time of Use Tariffs should increase variability between users and days
  10. 10. 10Heat – where networks meet…HEAT DEMAND IS HIGHLY VARIABLE¾  Seasonality drives heat demand:¾  Summer minimum of ~500GWh/day¾  Winter maximum of ~3,000GWh/day¾  Heat pump efficiency reduces significantlywith colder external temperatures(coefficient of performance range: 1.5 to 5)Key technical challenge:Key policy considerations:GAS HAS AN IMPORTANT ROLE TO PLAY¾  Full electrification will be highly costly(100GW – 150GW new electricity capacityrequired, at low load factors)¾  Hybrid solutions including gas, heatnetworks & electrification can decarboniseheat economically¾  Increased insulation is essential in all cases0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.51163146617691106121136151166181196211226241256271286301316331346361Electricity  /  Heat  Load  -­‐TWh/DayOtherEnvironmental  HeatHeat  pump  electric  loadElectricIncremental electrification will use dirtier marginal power stations
  11. 11. 1111At the heart of the energy transformation…

×