Sgcp13grunewald

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Sgcp13grunewald

  1. 1. Environmental Change InstituteVolatile wind and flexible demand:a balancing act?Philipp Grünewald5th Smart Grids & Cleanpower Conference5 June, Cambridgewww.cir-strategy.com/events
  2. 2. What to expect§  Something old, (Storage)§  something new, (DSR)§  something borrowed, (Flexibility)§  something blue, (Peak demand)§  and a silver sixpence in her shoe (Data)Page 2
  3. 3. The displacement of conventional plantPage 3Source: Transition Pathways ProjectSource: Jonathan Radcliffe (ERP) based on DECC 2050 pathway1) decarbonise2) electrify
  4. 4. 1: Build flexible generation and curtail excess supply2: Build expansive networks and enable spatial arbitrage3: Build physical electricity storage capacity4: Enable demand side flexibility to respond to supplySources  of  flexibility  Flexibility ResponsiveNetworkStorageGenerationConsumptionFlexibleAdditionalPage 4
  5. 5. [Electricity storage] promises savings on UK energy spend ofup to £10bn a year by 2050 as extra capacity for peak load isless necessary.George Osborne, 9 November 2012Up to 30 new gas power stations will beneeded by 2030George Osborne, 5 December 2012Page 5
  6. 6. The cost of meeting peak demandPage 6Price duration curve (1 year)3.1. Storage value increase with wind deploymentIntermittent generation increases the volatility of electricity prices, whichvalue proposition for storage. Figure 4 shows the increasing gross value of stobase case scenario with increasing amounts of wind.4 8 16 32 6438.662.5116.6125.1Wind deployment [GW]Grossstoragevalue[£/kW/year]2 GW10 GWFigure 4: Increase in gross value of storage with increasing wind deployme2 and 10 GW storage with 6 hour duration. Based on Grassroots 2030 scenarAt present levels of wind the value is not sufficient to stimulate furtherand even at 16 GW of wind values do not increase substantially, yet. At 32 Gdeployment, the gross value begins to exceed £100 per kW per year, which islevel of present technology options. With further expansion of wind capacit2increases the value of storagestoragestorage
  7. 7. SOURCES OF FLEXIBILITY§  (Flexible) generation§  (Smart) networks§  (Responsive) demandPage |Figure 42: Average and marginal values for bulk and distributed storage in 2030 across different scenarios. Tmarginal value is stable for most scenarios with the exception of flexible demand, which results in significantreduced levels of deployment. (Results shown for 6 hours storage duration; for 24 hour and 48 hour results sethe Appendix)The sensitivity of the value of storage to the presence of alternative solutions is shownFigure 42. All cases originate from the base case scenario, which is in turn subjectedspecific changes in the level of interconnection with neighbouring energy systems, flexibiliin generation, and the flexibility from the demand side. The average values again show thall scenarios with competing options reduce the average value of storage compared to tbaseline Grassroots case.The effect on the marginal values is shown in the lower half of Figure 42. These show homuch storage would be invested in at a given cost within an economically efficient systemThe marginal values differ only slightly between the different scenarios, with the notabexception of flexible demand.Page | 71the Appendix)The sensitivity of the value of storage to the presence of alternative solutions is shown inFigure 42. All cases originate from the base case scenario, which is in turn subjected tospecific changes in the level of interconnection with neighbouring energy systems, flexibilityin generation, and the flexibility from the demand side. The average values again show thatall scenarios with competing options reduce the average value of storage compared to thebaseline Grassroots case.The effect on the marginal values is shown in the lower half of Figure 42. These show howmuch storage would be invested in at a given cost within an economically efficient system.The marginal values differ only slightly between the different scenarios, with the notableexception of flexible demand.Page | 71Figure 42: Average and marginal values for bulk and distributed storage in 2030 across different scenarios. Themarginal value is stable for most scenarios with the exception of flexible demand, which results in significantlyreduced levels of deployment. (Results shown for 6 hours storage duration; for 24 hour and 48 hour results seethe Appendix)The sensitivity of the value of storage to the presence of alternative solutions is shown inFigure 42. All cases originate from the base case scenario, which is in turn subjected tospecific changes in the level of interconnection with neighbouring energy systems, flexibilityin generation, and the flexibility from the demand side. The average values again show thatall scenarios with competing options reduce the average value of storage compared to thebaseline Grassroots case.The effect on the marginal values is shown in the lower half of Figure 42. These show howmuch storage would be invested in at a given cost within an economically efficient system.The marginal values differ only slightly between the different scenarios, with the notableexception of flexible demand.Page | 71reduced levels of deployment. (Results shown for 6 hours storage duration; for 24 hour and 48 hour results seethe Appendix)The sensitivity of the value of storage to the presence of alternative solutions is shown inFigure 42. All cases originate from the base case scenario, which is in turn subjected tospecific changes in the level of interconnection with neighbouring energy systems, flexibilityin generation, and the flexibility from the demand side. The average values again show thatall scenarios with competing options reduce the average value of storage compared to thebaseline Grassroots case.The effect on the marginal values is shown in the lower half of Figure 42. These show howmuch storage would be invested in at a given cost within an economically efficient system.The marginal values differ only slightly between the different scenarios, with the notableexception of flexible demand.Page | 71e sensitivity of the value of storage to the presence of alternative solutions is shown ingure 42. All cases originate from the base case scenario, which is in turn subjected toecific changes in the level of interconnection with neighbouring energy systems, flexibilitygeneration, and the flexibility from the demand side. The average values again show thatscenarios with competing options reduce the average value of storage compared to theseline Grassroots case.e effect on the marginal values is shown in the lower half of Figure 42. These show howuch storage would be invested in at a given cost within an economically efficient system.e marginal values differ only slightly between the different scenarios, with the notableception of flexible demand.Marginal values: Strbac et al., Strategic Assessment of the Role and Value ofEnergy Storage Systems in the UK Low Carbon Energy Future. The Carbon Trustreduced value for different DSR configurations is shown in Figure 5.19 on presponse, even when limited to a maximum of four hours, as shown here,to significantly reduce the value of storage.If the DSR capacity was 4 GW and responded to prices above £50/MWof two-hour storage could reduce by over 50%. For longer storage duratat this price level is lower, as shown for the example of six-hour storagFigure 5.19 on page 124. This could suggest that in some scenarios for DSadopt more long-duration roles, than those simulations here without any Dτ=2 hours τ=6 hours£400/MWh£50/MWhπDSR1 2 4 1 2 4 PDSR [GW]51.4%39.6%20.1%18.0%30.1%42.4%Reductioningrossvalueofstorage[%]Figure 5.19: Reduction in the value of storage as a result of demandAt a DSR resource of 4 GW and a response price of £50/MWh the grof storage with a 2 hour duration can half. Longer storage durations aless affected. Example for 10 GW storage in base case scenario.DSR capacity [GW]Storage value reduction from DSRPage 7
  8. 8. Demand aggregation in the UK§  Collaboration with Kiwi Power§  Access to data for over 500 sites§  Half-hourly profile data (68 sites)§  Recorded response events (266 sites)§  Analysis of load profiles and load characteristics§  Distinct profiles demand a sector by sector approach§  Some sectors can not be generalised based on their profiles (e.g.manufacturing)Page 8
  9. 9. ‘Demand response’ from stand-by generation(Telecoms sector)41424344454647484950515253545556575859606162636465Figure 4: Stand-by generation responses to demand response requestsSample of 97 sites.10Page 94041424344454647484950515253545556575859606162636465sites and hotels do engage in demandwithin agreed bounds.Figure 6 shows significant load redthe distribution of responses to a loaat around 25% load reduction, relativvery few instances show little or no rContrasting the level of responseresponse, shows that the former contrreductions. Stand-by generation maeffectiveness and reliability. In the neresponse resource from demand turn
  10. 10. ‘Demand response’ fromPage 104041424344454647484950515253545556575859606162636465sites and hotels do engage in demandwithin agreed bounds.Figure 6 shows significant load redthe distribution of responses to a loaat around 25% load reduction, relativvery few instances show little or no rContrasting the level of responseresponse, shows that the former contrreductions. Stand-by generation maeffectiveness and reliability. In the neresponse resource from demand turnstand-by generation(Telecoms)333435363738394041424344454647484950515253545556575859606162636465Load reduction-100% -75% -50% -25%Figure 6: Distribution of load reduction (relative to baseline) during demand response trialin the hotel sector.12Load turn down(Hotels)
  11. 11. Untapped potential?§  Presently demand response plays a minorrole in response provision.§  Although policy makers desire a “levelplaying field” for all options, generationbased solutions have shaped the existingframework.§  Could the demand response contribution beimproved through regulatory changes?Page 11Based on: National Grid.
  12. 12. Short  Term  Opera7ng  Reserve  (STOR)    Page 12•  “a  service  for  the  provision  of  addi7onal  ac7ve  power  from  genera7on  and/or  demand  reduc7on”  •  3MW  or  more  of  genera7on  or  steady  demand  Deliver  within  4  hours  from  instruc7on  •  Provide  for  at  least  2  hours    •  20  hours  recovery    •  Ability  to  provide  STOR  at  least                3  7mes  a  week  Based on: National Grid. STOR Market Information Report
  13. 13. What if conditions were relaxed?2m20m4h24h00.511.522.5310h4h2h15/20mLonger response timeà Time to “preload”à Greater capacityLonger response durationà Rising/falling warehouse temperatureà Reduced capacityCapacityresourcefactor(STOR=1)Response capacity availability from UK warehouses(illustrative example)STORCM? Possibly worthbetween0.4 and 1 GW
  14. 14. Plato’s cavePage 14
  15. 15. Plato’s cavePage 15ResearchersConsumers
  16. 16. Page 16Conclusions•  Significant technical and commercialpotential for various flexibility options•  Current regulatory structures favourgeneration based solutions•  A better understanding of demandresponse potential could be gainedthrough a combination of empiricalstudies and detailed analysis
  17. 17. Page 17Thank you.

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