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SEA Venture: Discovering Opportunity in a fragmented market.

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Most investors see Southeast Asia as a fragmented market comprised of different countries with their own nuances with the potential of scaling up somewhat complicated. However, the tier 1 cities are on par with developed markets boosted by emerging middle class and strong consumer growth. The next tier of cities or the mass middle could be seen as developing market so essentially the divide is developed VS developing markets rather than on geographical lines.
What are the opportunities in SEA?
• How investors are viewing the region?
• How to capitalise on the burgeoning market?
• What is the Indonesia investment potential?
• Fragmented Vs homogeneous markets- is this the way to go?

Published in: Technology

SEA Venture: Discovering Opportunity in a fragmented market.

  1. 1. SEA Venture : Discovering the opportunity in a fragmented market Amit Anand Yash Sankrityayan Li-Anne Ooi @jungleventures 1
  2. 2. Confidential & Proprietary Information Focus Consumer internet category leaders in South East Asia or Globally disruptive technology companies from Asia Team 15 Investing & Operating professionals with decades of experience Investors AUM of >$140m with top tier limited partners and strategic investors Jungle invests in and helps build Technology Category Leaders in Southeast & South Asia 2@jungleventures
  3. 3. SEA is the fastest growing internet market in the world! @jungleventures 3
  4. 4. 2020 : 480m users 2015 : 256m users Projected to reach half a billion internet users by 2020 Adding ~3.8mn new users online each month ▲ Source : Google-Temasek e-conomy SEA report @jungleventures 4
  5. 5. SEA countries Median age (years) Internet users as % of population (Jan’17) Average time spent on online daily Thailand 37.2 67% 8 hr 49m Indonesia 29.9 51% 8 hr 44m Malaysia 28.2 71% 8 hr 31m Singapore 34.3 82% 6 hr 41m Vietnam 30.1 53% 6 hr 53m Philippines 23.4 58% 9hrs Majority young internet population spending > 6 hours online, daily Source : Wearesocial – 2017 Digital in Asia : SouthEast Asia @jungleventures 5
  6. 6. 540.87mil 11% of global 644.03mil 9% of global 339.13mil 9% of global 305.84mil 11% of global +8%+39% +31%SEA vs. Global growth (%) +5%+10% +21% Growing >50% faster than global average SEA social media users make-up >10% of global total Experiencing growth rates 50% higher than global average Source : Wearesocial – 2017 Digital in Asia : SouthEast Asia @jungleventures 6
  7. 7. Online economy projected to grow > 6x to ~US$200bn by 2025 Source : Google-Temasek e-conomy SEA report @jungleventures 7
  8. 8. Highly fragmented market Collection of dissimilar countries Under developed venture ecosystem Not big enough to support large exit/ IPO outcomes However, despite headline numbers, general market perception remains that SEA is… @jungleventures 8
  9. 9. 1st acqui-hire in SEA $30M undisclosed $250M $1B $130M $750M M&A is accelerating $90M $100M $550M More mega-rounds from foreign investors / corporates $147M undisclosed SEA venture investments and M&A have been growing, Also weathered the 2016 slowdown better Source : Pitchbook, State of SEA Technology Startup Ecosystem 2016, Crunchbase, Map of the Money 4.0 $200M$100M> $30m @jungleventures 9
  10. 10. Highly fragmented market Collection of dissimilar countries Under developed venture ecosystem Not big enough to support large exit/ IPO outcomes However, despite headline numbers, general market perception remains that SEA is… @jungleventures 10
  11. 11. Looking closely at the Top 10 metros in SEA @jungleventures 11
  12. 12. SEA Country ID TH MY SG VN PH Population (mn) 262.0 68.2 30.9 5.7 94.9 103.0 Country nominal GDP (USD mn) 861.9 395.2 296.3 292.7 193.6 292.5 Average GDP / capita (USD) 3,290 5,792 9,570 51,000 2,039 2,840 Metro cities Jakarta Bangkok Kuala Lumpur Singapore Ho Chi Minh Manila Population (mn) 32.2 15.6 6.1 5.7 8.2 12.9 % of total population 12% 23% 20% 100% 9% 13% Nominal GDP (USD) 232.1 191.1 132.7 292.7 41.9 61.9 % to country GDP 27% 48% 45% 100% 22% 21% GDP / capita (USD) 7,207 12,251 21,750 51,000 5,100 4,763 No of times average GDP/capita 2.19x 2.11x 2.61x 1.0x 2.50x 1.6x Respective SEA metro cities alone make up >20% of country GDPs. GDP/capita are ~2x higher than country average (implying discretionary spending power) Source : Brookings Institution; Worldbank; Wearesocial – 2017 Digital in Asia : SouthEast Asia; Wikpedia; NESDB Thailand; National Statistical Coordination Board Philippines; Statistics Office of Vietnam; DOSM @jungleventures 12
  13. 13. Note: GDP per capita numbers are specifically for the city areas. Source: Brookings Institution; Worldbank; Wearesocial – 2017 Digital in Asia : SouthEast Asia; Wikipedia; NESDB Thailand; National Statistical Coordination Board Philippines; Statistics Office of Vietnam; DOSM Metro area Population million (2014 Est.) GDP/capita 2014 Delhi 23 $3,580 Mumbai 22 $1,990 Kolkata 16 $1,116 Chennai 10 $1,870 Bangalore 8 $1,420 Hyderabad 6 $1,430 India Total 85 million $2,148 w/ave Metro area Population million (2014 Est.) GDP/capita 2014 Manila 13 $4,763 Jakarta 32 $7,207 Bangkok 16 $12,251 Kuala Lumpur 6 $21,750 HCMC 8 $5,100 SEA Total 75 million $8,798 w/ave Singapore 6 $51,000 SEA with SG 81 million $11,924 w/ave Most consumer tech businesses are metro-city focused rather than serving whole country populations (at least in the first 3-5 years of their evolution and growth) GDP/capita is 5.2x higher across the top SE Asian cities and as a result immediately addressable market in $ terms in SEA is >~5x of India $965B Total$182B Total Top 6 Indian cities Top SEA cities SEA metros have comparable population with >5x spending power vs. India, relevant as these metros are immediate target markets for most start-ups @jungleventures 13
  14. 14. Online media and Social networks Aspirational brands Spending power (as represented by GDP per capita) Ho Chi Minh $5,100 Bangkok $12,251 Jakarta $7,207 Delhi $3,580 Manila $4,763 Digital product and services Customers in metros demonstrate homogenous consumer behaviour @jungleventures 14
  15. 15. Delivery and fulfilment options Payment networks Digital marketing and advertising Cloud/ Computing / Platform Infrastructure solutions are uniformly available today via regional / global service providers @jungleventures 15
  16. 16. Takeaway #1 Combined, Top 10 Metros of SEA is a ~100mn, homogenous market with projected US$50+B potential for online consumption @jungleventures 16
  17. 17. And early success of these startups is evidence towards that.. @jungleventures 17 ** Jungle Portfolio Company ****
  18. 18. Looking closely at Indonesia’s middle market @jungleventures 18
  19. 19. 65 46 28 65 57 48 44 47 51 42 55 68 23 36 49 7 12 173 5 7 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2012 2016 2020 mil Poor Aspirant Emerging Middle Middle Upper middle Affluent Elite 2012 : 74mil 2016 : 108mil 2020 : 141mil Monthly Household Expenditure only on basic expenses (food, utilities, transport, communication, household supplies); excludes discretionary spend USD equivalent Elite Above 562 Affluent 375 less than 562 Upper Middle 225 less than 375 Middle 150 less than 225 Emerging Middle 112 less than 150 Aspirant 75 less than 112 Poor Less than 75 “MAC” Defined as basic household monthly expenses >$150 Indonesian middle and affluent consumers (MAC) is currently ~100+mn, and projected to be >50% of population by 2020 @jungleventures 19 Source: BCG Population and Household Expenditure Report 2012
  20. 20. Substantial MAC population outside of Jakarta, and growing much faster (50+mn is outside Jakarta and doubling over this decade) Source: BCG Population and Household Expenditure Report 2012 @jungleventures 20
  21. 21. Online shoppers as % of total online population more than doubled in just 2014-15 à Implying ecommerce is growing fast but still comprises ~30% of online population 91%+ online users are active on social networks and 50%+ use IM apps à Implying substantial time spent and comfort with usage Social network (90%+) and IM (50%+) usage is already high amongst both urban and rural populations who are online Source: Credit Suisse Indonesia Consumer Survey 2016 @jungleventures 21
  22. 22. Takeaway #2 Indonesia’s growing MAC is a large homogenous market with significant online potential over the next decade @jungleventures 22
  23. 23. And these startups with network based business models are well positioned to dominate that market potential.. @jungleventures 23 ** Jungle Portfolio Company ** **
  24. 24. Network-based Target large populations/ user bases and go broad with what you can layer on as services An ideal business at scale has user sets of 50m+ users spending 40$+ per year resulting in $2b+ in revenues/ GMV but with thinner gross margins (net take rate) of ~3-5% Consumption-based Target the metro cities initially, build brand and go deeper with each customer’s spend An ideal business at scale has presence in 5+ large metros and with 0.5m+ shoppers in each metro spending 100$+ per year on the platform sees net revenues of $250m+ with high gross margins of 30%+ Investors and startups need to deeply evaluate what they are building / funding, and accordingly, plan to go wider and/or deeper in new markets @jungleventures 24
  25. 25. Thank you Amit Anand Yash Sankrityayan Li-Anne Ooi @jungleventures 25
  26. 26. 26 § These Materials (“Materials”) are based on information provided by independent third parties reasonably believed to be reliable and are being shared with a limited number of parties who have expressed interest in the same. These Materials do not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell or purchase any securities or investment advisory services. § By accepting these Materials, the recipient agrees (in addition to any obligations it may have under a Confidentiality Agreement executed with Jungle Ventures) that neither it nor its agents, representatives, directors or employees will copy, reproduce or distribute to others these Materials, in whole or in part, at anytime without the prior written consent of Jungle Ventures and it will keep confidential all information contained herein or otherwise made available by Jungle Ventures. § Neither Jungle Ventures nor any of their respective affiliates, employees or representatives makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in these Materials or any other information (whether written or oral) made available in connection with the investigation of investment opportunities by Jungle Ventures. Only those particular representations and warranties, if any, which may be made to a party in a definitive written agreement regarding a transaction involving Jungle Ventures, when, as and if executed, and subject to such limitations and restrictions as may be specified therein, will have any legal effect. § Jungle Ventures and their respective affiliates, employees or representatives expressly disclaim any and all liability relating to or resulting from the use of these Materials, any errors therein or omissions therefrom or the use of any other related information by a prospective investor or any of its affiliates, agents or representatives. These Materials do not purport to be all inclusive or necessarily to contain all information that may be material with respect to any potential investment led by Jungle Ventures. In all cases, each recipient should conduct their own independent investigation and analysis of the information contained in these Materials. @jungleventures IMPORTANT NOTICE TO RECIPIENTS

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