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Does road traffic congestion drive PT usage
How should we respond when major projects shift the balance?
What we’ll cover….
 Background
 What is road traffic congestion?
 What are its behavioural effects?
 What does this me...
The background….
 Examine the relationship between
congestion and PT
 This topic is – surprisingly – not
that well under...
So what is road traffic congestion?
 Delay to vehicles as they impede
each other
 Not a bad thing since it reflects
urba...
What are its behavioural effects?
 Travel time elasticities are quite low:
 -0.2 to -0.3 short run
 -0.3 to -0.45 long ...
What are its behavioural effects?
 As individuals respond they
release capacity to others, and
if they switch to another
...
What are its behavioural effects?
 Lane km elasticities:
 Range between 0.29 and 1.1
 0.69 average in the long run
 Pr...
What does this mean for PT?
 Congestion is one of many factors that
influence PT demand
 But not as well understood as
o...
What does this mean for PT?
 Congestion has different effects
on segregated right of way PT
and on-street PT
 Segregated...
What does this mean for PT?
 Road projects that reduce car
travel time:
 Can be expected to reduce the
relative attracti...
What does this mean for PT?
 Suggested equilibrium
mechanism between car
and PT travel in congested
urban areas
 The equ...
What does this mean for PT?
 But the evidence is limited:
 Two studies suggest mode shift from train
to road on Sydney r...
How should we respond when major
projects shift the balance?
 Two alternatives:
 Do nothing and expect (and accept)
a fa...
How should we respond when major
projects shift the balance?
 PT improvements could range from
minor enhancements to majo...
How should we respond when major
projects shift the balance?
 But more research is needed
into the relationship between
c...
Thank you
August 8, 2016
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Does road traffic congestion drive PT usage and how should we respond when major projects shift the balance.

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Doug Weir, Andrew King, Mark Apeldoorn

Published in: Education
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Does road traffic congestion drive PT usage and how should we respond when major projects shift the balance.

  1. 1. Does road traffic congestion drive PT usage How should we respond when major projects shift the balance?
  2. 2. What we’ll cover….  Background  What is road traffic congestion?  What are its behavioural effects?  What does this mean for PT?  How should we respond when major projects shift the balance? August 8, 2016
  3. 3. The background….  Examine the relationship between congestion and PT  This topic is – surprisingly – not that well understood  Tends to be dominated by partisan arguments  Scratch the surface and prompt further work. August 8, 2016
  4. 4. So what is road traffic congestion?  Delay to vehicles as they impede each other  Not a bad thing since it reflects urban and economic growth  Recurrent vs non-recurrent  Becomes problematic as road system nears capacity and minor events cause failure. August 8, 2016
  5. 5. What are its behavioural effects?  Travel time elasticities are quite low:  -0.2 to -0.3 short run  -0.3 to -0.45 long run  Three response strategies:  Those that maintain the current travel (including variations to time, route or mode)  Those that reduce travel  Life-style/locational changes August 8, 2016
  6. 6. What are its behavioural effects?  As individuals respond they release capacity to others, and if they switch to another time/route, reduce capacity there  Others respond until capacity is filled and delays discourage additional trips  Rough equilibrium is reached August 8, 2016
  7. 7. What are its behavioural effects?  Lane km elasticities:  Range between 0.29 and 1.1  0.69 average in the long run  Provide evidence that capacity is filled by induced demand. August 8, 2016 Source: Litman (2016)
  8. 8. What does this mean for PT?  Congestion is one of many factors that influence PT demand  But not as well understood as other factors  Cross-elasticity & diversion rate indicate sensitivity of PT demand to car travel time  Diversion rate of 20%  Cross elasticity of 0.24 August 8, 2016
  9. 9. What does this mean for PT?  Congestion has different effects on segregated right of way PT and on-street PT  Segregated: congestion makes PT travel time and reliability more competitive  On street: congestion may make PT travel time and reliability less competitive (depending on the degree of priority) August 8, 2016
  10. 10. What does this mean for PT?  Road projects that reduce car travel time:  Can be expected to reduce the relative attractiveness of segregated right of way PT  May improve the relative attractiveness of on-street PT  Outcome depends on PT travel time and reliability competitiveness under new conditions August 8, 2016
  11. 11. What does this mean for PT?  Suggested equilibrium mechanism between car and PT travel in congested urban areas  The equilibrium point may be at a higher cost point than previously August 8, 2016 Source: Mogridge (1997) in Zeibots & Petocz (2005)
  12. 12. What does this mean for PT?  But the evidence is limited:  Two studies suggest mode shift from train to road on Sydney road projects  Some other international evidence – primarily for train  Limited bus evidence  Suggested to account for around half of induced traffic and an overall increase in corridor traffic of up to 2% to 3% (possibly greater). August 8, 2016
  13. 13. How should we respond when major projects shift the balance?  Two alternatives:  Do nothing and expect (and accept) a fair degree of mode switching with impacts on the PT attractiveness and viability  Invest in equivalent improvements that improve PT travel times and reliability and allow PT to remain a competitive and attractive alternative to car August 8, 2016
  14. 14. How should we respond when major projects shift the balance?  PT improvements could range from minor enhancements to major upgrades that match road improvements (and travel time)  May be appropriate to reallocate released road space to PT from inception before induced travel fills excess capacity August 8, 2016
  15. 15. How should we respond when major projects shift the balance?  But more research is needed into the relationship between congestion and PT to enable better decision making  The profession must provide this through better monitoring and analysis. August 8, 2016
  16. 16. Thank you August 8, 2016

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