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Christchurch (NZ) Transport Model
Update – A Moving Feast
Julie Ballantyne
Christchurch
 Largest city in South Island
 Third largest city in NZ
 Population, 425k
 Transport:
 International Air...
 4 Stage Model (land use ---> travel)
 Uses:
 Infrastructure/PT system assessments
 Demands for lower tiered models
 ...
But then…..
 Earthquakes, 2010-2011
 Half roads suffered some damage
 CBD
 Closed, businesses forced to relocate
 Ove...
The Project
Check the CTM predictions for 2013 against observed
How is the model performing?
Model inputs:
 Land use fro...
The Challenge
 Massive shift in land use distribution
 Roadworks still prevalent in 2013
 2015 hub-and-spoke buses on 2...
Change to the Landscape - Residential
Waimakariri
Selwyn
Change to the Landscape - Residential
River corridor
Hill suburbs
Change to the Landscape - Business
Change to the Landscape - Business
CBD
Road Network
Road Network – Road Works
Road Network – Road Works
Road Network - Closures
Bus Network
 Bus exchange
 Temporary 2013
 New 2015
 Bus routes:
 Through routes 2013
 Hub-and-spoke 2015
 Change i...
Network - 2006
Network - 2013
Network - 2015
Traffic Counts
 Link counts required on screenlines
 Significant amount of data available
 But ….
 Not processed (raw ...
Traffic Counts – Lessons
 Never underestimate data processing required
 Model useful tool to check counts
 Significant gaps in screenlines…
 …but no point counting in some areas (road
works/red zones)
 Solution:
 Include fac...
Traffic Counts
Validation - Targets
Validation Data
 Vehicle travel times
 PT Boardings (2015)
 Census Journey-to-Work
 Traffic counts
Model Performance – Travel Times
Model Performance – Travel Times
AM IP PM
Model Performance – PT Boardings
AM – Corridor
by Destination
Model Performance – Counts
Total Vehicles
GEH Criteria AM IP PM ON Daily
% Screenlines with GEH
<5 > 60% 59% 55% 64% 82% 8...
Model Performance – Counts
Model Performance - JTW
Model Performance - JTW
Census JTW Model HBW
Summary
 Significant changes in Christchurch
 Variation in counts – model used to identify
outliers
 The model:
 CTM o...
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Christchurch (NZ) Transportation Models Update - A Moving Feast

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Julie Ballantyne

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Christchurch (NZ) Transportation Models Update - A Moving Feast

  1. 1. Christchurch (NZ) Transport Model Update – A Moving Feast Julie Ballantyne
  2. 2. Christchurch  Largest city in South Island  Third largest city in NZ  Population, 425k  Transport:  International Airport  Large Port (inland ports)  Flat terrain – cycle-friendly  Bus system (central focus)  Car travel dominates (>80%)
  3. 3.  4 Stage Model (land use ---> travel)  Uses:  Infrastructure/PT system assessments  Demands for lower tiered models  Owned by regional/local Govt agencies  Calibrated to 2006  4 Stage Models checked every 5 years  Validation check planned after 2011 (Census) Christchurch Transportation Model (CTM)
  4. 4. But then…..  Earthquakes, 2010-2011  Half roads suffered some damage  CBD  Closed, businesses forced to relocate  Over 1000 buildings (1/3) demolished  Residential  Significant damage in east  Census delayed to 2013  Rebuild still ongoing
  5. 5. The Project Check the CTM predictions for 2013 against observed How is the model performing? Model inputs:  Land use from 2013 Census  Transport network – roads & intersections  Transport network – bus system Normally straight-forward but……
  6. 6. The Challenge  Massive shift in land use distribution  Roadworks still prevalent in 2013  2015 hub-and-spoke buses on 2013 network  Had to work with data available  Lots of traffic counts –> lots of processing  Software update => results change
  7. 7. Change to the Landscape - Residential Waimakariri Selwyn
  8. 8. Change to the Landscape - Residential River corridor Hill suburbs
  9. 9. Change to the Landscape - Business
  10. 10. Change to the Landscape - Business CBD
  11. 11. Road Network
  12. 12. Road Network – Road Works
  13. 13. Road Network – Road Works
  14. 14. Road Network - Closures
  15. 15. Bus Network  Bus exchange  Temporary 2013  New 2015  Bus routes:  Through routes 2013  Hub-and-spoke 2015  Change in road directions
  16. 16. Network - 2006
  17. 17. Network - 2013
  18. 18. Network - 2015
  19. 19. Traffic Counts  Link counts required on screenlines  Significant amount of data available  But ….  Not processed (raw files, not geo-referenced)  Processing/mapping significant (and tedious) task  Inconsistent formats – more manual intervention  Directional discrepancies
  20. 20. Traffic Counts – Lessons  Never underestimate data processing required  Model useful tool to check counts
  21. 21.  Significant gaps in screenlines…  …but no point counting in some areas (road works/red zones)  Solution:  Include factored old counts to complete the screenlines Traffic Counts – Mind the Gap
  22. 22. Traffic Counts
  23. 23. Validation - Targets
  24. 24. Validation Data  Vehicle travel times  PT Boardings (2015)  Census Journey-to-Work  Traffic counts
  25. 25. Model Performance – Travel Times
  26. 26. Model Performance – Travel Times AM IP PM
  27. 27. Model Performance – PT Boardings AM – Corridor by Destination
  28. 28. Model Performance – Counts Total Vehicles GEH Criteria AM IP PM ON Daily % Screenlines with GEH <5 > 60% 59% 55% 64% 82% 86% <7.5 > 75% 73% 82% 77% 91% 91% <10 > 90% 73% 91% 77% 100% 95% % Links with GEH <5 >= 65% 52% 66% 49% 82% 68% <7.5 >= 75% 72% 80% 66% 96% 87% <10 >= 85% 83% 92% 79% 97% 94% <12 >= 95% 92% 97% 88% 100% 97% RMSE 30% 32% 30% 40% 47% 29%
  29. 29. Model Performance – Counts
  30. 30. Model Performance - JTW
  31. 31. Model Performance - JTW Census JTW Model HBW
  32. 32. Summary  Significant changes in Christchurch  Variation in counts – model used to identify outliers  The model:  CTM outputs checked using 2013/15 observed  CTM performing well  Next challenge:  Ongoing monitoring of changing land use patterns

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