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Transport’s Influence on
Demography
Tony Fransos
2
Demographic and Land Use Inputs
Different forecasts from high quality demographers
Parsing demographic changes
Attemp...
3
Objectives
Try to identify how strong the influence is
Try to identify ways to model the influence in our models.
Not...
4
Demographic Issues
Models for Planning
Whole cities or regions
Aggregate measures of performance
Models for Infrastr...
5
Exogenous Inputs
Economic
Value of Time
Fuel Price
PT Fare
Toll Charges
Socio-political
Special Generators
Demog...
6
Uncertainty and Sensitivity
Mostly easy
But not Population and Employment
Depends on Size of the Pie
And the way it’...
7
Our Hunch
8
Our Hunch
9
The Mechanism
DISTRIBUTION
Mode Choice
Route Choice
10
Influence on Population
Affordability
Accessibility
Especially to jobs
BUT
Close to family
Close to entertainment...
11
Influence on Price of Property
12
Natural Growth – 2006 to 2011
13
Interstate Migration 2006 to 2011
14
International Migration – 2006 to
2011
15
Influence on Business/Work Places
Low Costs
Accessibility
Especially to other businesses
Close to Transport Facilit...
16
Decisions to Model
Business
Low property cost
Accessibility - Close to transport
facilities
Close to other businesses
P...
17
Sydney Suburbs Employment 2016
18
Sydney Suburbs Population 2016
19
What still needs to be done
Produce some comparisons of forecasts
Make the modelling method more rigourous
Remember ...
20
Summary and Conclusion
This is still all back of the envelope
Is aimed at transport understanding of modelling inputs...
Build it and they will come if it’s good enough: The Impact of TransportInfrastructure on Land Use and Settlement Patterns
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Build it and they will come if it’s good enough: The Impact of TransportInfrastructure on Land Use and Settlement Patterns

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Tony Fransos

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Build it and they will come if it’s good enough: The Impact of TransportInfrastructure on Land Use and Settlement Patterns

  1. 1. Transport’s Influence on Demography Tony Fransos
  2. 2. 2 Demographic and Land Use Inputs Different forecasts from high quality demographers Parsing demographic changes Attempts to amend demography = EPIC FAIL The Vibe : New Infrastructure increases value The Hunch: Infrastructure causes population/employment increase Totally Painful
  3. 3. 3 Objectives Try to identify how strong the influence is Try to identify ways to model the influence in our models. Not in a LUTI way, keeping Land use out of our 4-Step gems Aim to find a way to judge uncertainty in forecasts
  4. 4. 4 Demographic Issues Models for Planning Whole cities or regions Aggregate measures of performance Models for Infrastructure Specific corridors Particular facilities
  5. 5. 5 Exogenous Inputs Economic Value of Time Fuel Price PT Fare Toll Charges Socio-political Special Generators Demography Population Employment
  6. 6. 6 Uncertainty and Sensitivity Mostly easy But not Population and Employment Depends on Size of the Pie And the way it’s distributed Seldom tested meaningfully
  7. 7. 7 Our Hunch
  8. 8. 8 Our Hunch
  9. 9. 9 The Mechanism DISTRIBUTION Mode Choice Route Choice
  10. 10. 10 Influence on Population Affordability Accessibility Especially to jobs BUT Close to family Close to entertainment Close to Uni Downsizing
  11. 11. 11 Influence on Price of Property
  12. 12. 12 Natural Growth – 2006 to 2011
  13. 13. 13 Interstate Migration 2006 to 2011
  14. 14. 14 International Migration – 2006 to 2011
  15. 15. 15 Influence on Business/Work Places Low Costs Accessibility Especially to other businesses Close to Transport Facilities Especially Transport and Logistics Industry
  16. 16. 16 Decisions to Model Business Low property cost Accessibility - Close to transport facilities Close to other businesses People Nature Babies in locations of child bearing women Age n+1 = Age n - deaths Migration Affordability Close to family/Similar People Close to work Close to schools Close to transport facilities Coming of agers – To .. like ... Sick locations, man Empty nesters Become grey nomads Never leave home
  17. 17. 17 Sydney Suburbs Employment 2016
  18. 18. 18 Sydney Suburbs Population 2016
  19. 19. 19 What still needs to be done Produce some comparisons of forecasts Make the modelling method more rigourous Remember that we’re not replacing expert forecasts this is an exercise in rationalising our experts’ forecasts of population
  20. 20. 20 Summary and Conclusion This is still all back of the envelope Is aimed at transport understanding of modelling inputs and outputs Will never replace proper demographic forecasting

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