Scenary of Post-Soviet Development

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Scenary for Kichkine Summer School-2010
(Temple University; Director Prof. V. Zubok)

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Scenary of Post-Soviet Development

  1. 1. Belarus Russia Ukraine : to “ integrate” or to “ make a friendship”?
  2. 2. Group participants : <ul><li>Verameyeu Mikalai – Belarus </li></ul><ul><li>Budyukin Dmitriy – Russian Federation </li></ul><ul><li>Dmitriyev Aleksandr -Russian Federation </li></ul><ul><li>Petrushenko Yuriy – Ukraine </li></ul><ul><li>Bidenko Julia - Ukraine </li></ul>
  3. 3. BELARUS Freedom House Surway “Nations in Transit 2009” <ul><li>GNI / capita: US$10,750 </li></ul><ul><li>Population: 9.7 million </li></ul><ul><li>Political regime: consolidated authoritarism </li></ul><ul><li>(Democracy Score 6.57) </li></ul><ul><li>National Democratic Governance: 6.75 </li></ul><ul><li>Electoral Process 6.75 </li></ul><ul><li>Civil Society 6.25 </li></ul><ul><li>Independent Media 6.75 </li></ul><ul><li>Corruption 6.00 </li></ul>
  4. 4. Belarus Social and cultural features <ul><li>Language problems aren’t under discussion </li></ul><ul><li>Religions : mostly Orthodoxal, but 30% Catholics </li></ul><ul><li>Ethnic identity: 80 % Belorussians, 11 % Russians, 2 % Ukrainians </li></ul>
  5. 5. Belarus <ul><li>Foreign policy priorities: </li></ul><ul><li>“ Basic principle of the Republic of Belarus strategy at the international stage is the principle of multilateral, multidimensional and balanced foreign policy. </li></ul><ul><li>The main priority of the Belarus foreign policy is to cooperate with neighbour states. The strategic ally of Belarus is Russia which is the main trade and economic partner of Belarus” http://president.gov.by/press10663.html </li></ul><ul><li>* Eastern Partnership EU Program member </li></ul>
  6. 6. Belarus <ul><li>Public opinion about foreign policy </li></ul><ul><li>“ Whom should we provide partnership with mostly, </li></ul><ul><li>according to our interests?” </li></ul>
  7. 7. Belarus “Is the increase of contacts with the West in the interests of Belarus?”
  8. 8. Russia Freedom House Surway “Nations in Transit 2009” <ul><li>Population: 142.1 million </li></ul><ul><li>GNI/capita: US$14,330 </li></ul><ul><li>Political regime: deconsolidated authoritarism </li></ul><ul><li>(Democracy Score 6.11) </li></ul><ul><li>National Democratic Governance: 6.5 </li></ul><ul><li>Electoral Process 6.75 </li></ul><ul><li>Civil Society 5.75 </li></ul><ul><li>Independent Media 6.25 </li></ul><ul><li>Corruption 6. 25 </li></ul>
  9. 9. Russia Social and cultural features <ul><li>Language: 92 % Russian language native speakers </li></ul><ul><li>Religions: 63% Orthodox, 6% Muslim </li></ul><ul><li>Ethnic identity: 79,8 %   Russians, 3,8% Tatars, 2 % Ukrainians </li></ul><ul><li>& more than 180 other nationalities, ethnic minorities, ethnic groups etc. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Russia Foreign politics priorities: <ul><li>To form a good-neighbor belt along the perimeter of Russia's borders, to promote elimination of the existing and prevent the emergence of potential hotbeds of tension and conflicts in regions adjacent to the Russian Federation; </li></ul><ul><li>to popularize the Russian language and culture of the peoples of Russia in foreign states. </li></ul><ul><li>  A priority area in Russia's foreign policy is ensuring conformity of multilateral and bilateral cooperation with the member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to national security tasks of the country </li></ul><ul><li>  The Russian Federation views the EU as one of its main political and economic partners and will strive to develop with it an intensive, stable and long-term cooperation devoid of expediency fluctuations . </li></ul><ul><li>THE FOREIGN POLICY CONCEPT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION </li></ul><ul><li>Approved by the President of the Russian Federation V.Putin June 28, 2000 </li></ul>
  11. 11. Russia Public opinion about Ukraine and Belarus <ul><li>To Belarus </li></ul><ul><li>To Ukraine </li></ul>
  12. 12. Ukraine <ul><li>Population: 46.5 million </li></ul><ul><li>GNI/capita : US$ 6,810 </li></ul><ul><li>Political regime: Hybrid </li></ul><ul><li>(Democracy Score 4.39) </li></ul><ul><li>National Democratic Governance: 5 </li></ul><ul><li>Electoral Process 3.25 </li></ul><ul><li>Civil Society 2.75 </li></ul><ul><li>Independent Media 3.5 </li></ul><ul><li>Corruption 5 . 75 </li></ul>
  13. 13. Ukraine Social and cultural features <ul><li>Language problems : political discussion about Russian as the second official language </li></ul><ul><li>Religions: mostly Orthodox (50% Ukrainian Orthodox Church, 15% Moscow Orthodox Church), 8% Greek-Catholics, 3%Catholics, 0.7% Muslim </li></ul><ul><li>Ethnic identity: 79 % Ukrainians, 17.9 % Russians </li></ul>
  14. 14. Ukraine <ul><li>International politics priorities </li></ul><ul><li>European Union integration </li></ul><ul><li>Harmonious mutual relations with neighbouring states </li></ul><ul><li>The Law of Ukraine “The National Security Fundamentals” </li></ul><ul><li>* Eastern Partnership EU Program member </li></ul>
  15. 15. Ukraine <ul><li>Public opinion on foreign policy priorities </li></ul>
  16. 16. PRINCIPAL DATA (comparative table) + - + - Economy & resources (energy) BELARUS RUSSIA UKRAINE Population 9.7 million 142.1 million 46.5 million GNI/capita $10,750 $14,330 $ 6,810 Political regime (Democracy Score) consolidated authoritarism (6.57) deconsolidated authoritarism (6.11) hybrid (4.39) Foreign policy prioritets Russia (but Eastern partnership member) Plural Regional Leadership EU (but Yanukovich policy draws to Russia) Electoral Process 6.75 6.75 3.25 Civil Society 6.25 5.75 2.75 Independent Media 6.75 6.25 3.5 Corruption 6.0 6. 25 5 . 75
  17. 17. Relationship SCENARIOS: <ul><li>Integration in a Rusia-Belarus-Ukrainian Union (“Slavic”, “Euroasian”, “Eastern-European”) </li></ul><ul><li>to “(re) create a “family” </li></ul><ul><li>Cooperate, saving the independence and states sovereignty </li></ul><ul><li>to “make a friendship” </li></ul>
  18. 18. Integration Strengths Weakness <ul><li>Common history and culture </li></ul><ul><li>Common economic and industrial system, that was built in USSR </li></ul><ul><li>Similar social problems and their solution patterns </li></ul><ul><li>Common educational and scientific traditions </li></ul><ul><li>Experience to “live together” in one state with common institutions, governing practices </li></ul><ul><li>Different political regimes, electoral and political culture, civil society and independent media’ range </li></ul><ul><li>Contradiction to official foreign policy of the states (especially Ukraine ) </li></ul><ul><li>A great number of integration’ opponents among domestic elites (nationalists, religious, ethnical, social groups) </li></ul><ul><li>Religious heterogeneity and domestic confessions . </li></ul><ul><li>Different new Post-Soviet identities, social ideals, values, norms </li></ul>Opportunities Threats <ul><li>Economic and social cooperation, market expansion for every Union member </li></ul><ul><li>Social welfare in Ukraine and Belarus due to Russian cheap resources </li></ul><ul><li>Development of common cultural space and Slavic identity consolidation </li></ul><ul><li>Forming of common security space </li></ul><ul><li>Risk of international isolation and refusing of EU membership perspectives </li></ul><ul><li>Imperial policy of Russia, Ukraine & Belarus possibilities to lose sovereignty, becoming a colonies </li></ul><ul><li>New economic Union will be unable to modernize </li></ul><ul><li>“ Russification” of domestic original cultures </li></ul><ul><li>Ethnic and religious conflicts </li></ul>
  19. 19. Cooperate, saving independence Strengths Weakness <ul><li>Correspondence to adopted foreign policy priorities </li></ul><ul><li>Common traditions of policy making, diplomacy, political communications </li></ul><ul><li>Experience to “live separated” in the independent states (after the collapse of USSR) </li></ul><ul><li>Elites’ interest to keep the status-quo and to rule in independent states </li></ul><ul><li>Russia’s Imperial ambitions </li></ul><ul><li>Nostalgia for USSR in Ukraine, Russia , Belarus . </li></ul><ul><li>Unequal relations between three countries in mutual negotiations </li></ul><ul><li>The lack of relevant recognition of state’s sovereignty ( we can to choose “Friend” and cannot choose “Brother” ). </li></ul><ul><li>The lack of norms and traditions of equal respectful communication </li></ul>Opportunities Threats <ul><li>Harmonious development of each country according to its priorities, values, national ideas. </li></ul><ul><li>Chance for more effective relations with European and Euro-Athlantic institutions (EU, NATO etc) </li></ul><ul><li>In democratic horizontally organized space mutual initiatives, effective governance and innovation solutions are more possible than in vertically centralized system </li></ul><ul><li>Clash of the economic interests and claims (Gas, Meat, Milk wars) </li></ul><ul><li>High expenses of bi- and trilateral negotiations . </li></ul><ul><li>Potential increase of differentiation in social, economic, political and cultural development in the region, which lead to internal social tensions, instability, migration ,conflicts </li></ul>
  20. 20. <ul><li>Main contradictions of regional integration / cooperation: </li></ul><ul><li>Potential economic benefits versus modernization problems and competitive ability in global world </li></ul><ul><li>Political integration benefits versus sovereignty and domestic elites interests </li></ul><ul><li>Slavic solidarity versus regional instability, conflicts, separatism (ethnic, cultural, religious) </li></ul>
  21. 21. <ul><li>Cooperation rules, based on European values: </li></ul><ul><li>Mutual economic cooperation, equality in political relationships </li></ul><ul><li>Historical, cultural and lingual issues are not the cause to economic pressure and political intervention </li></ul><ul><li>Helping to construct more stable societies </li></ul><ul><li>Common solution of demographic and human development problems (poverty, hunger, migration, health, education) </li></ul><ul><li>Common energy & resource’ saving programs, environment, climate challenges solutions </li></ul>
  22. 22. Conclusion: <ul><li>STRENGTH IN DIVERSITY </li></ul>
  23. 23. We trust in the future!!!

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