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Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis


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Presentation for the Minneapolis Community Environmental Advisory Commission on creating a long-term greenhouse gas emissions reduction goal for the City of Minneapolis.

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Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

  1. 1. Setting a Long-term Carbon Reduction Goal for Minneapolis Community Environmental Advisory Commission April 10, 2014
  2. 2. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 4.889 mmtco2e -14.88% 2012 5.7 mmtco2e 2006 4.882 mmtco2e -15% 2015 4.0 mmtco2e -30% 2025 Minneapolis Community GHG Reduction Targets
  3. 3. Staff direction: “To work with CEAC to develop a long term carbon emissions reduction goal, to supplement the City’s short- and mid-term goals and report back with a recommendation no later than April 14, 2014.”
  4. 4. Projected Change in Days >90 o F from 1980 to 2055 Source: Center for Climatic Research, Nelson Institute, University of Wisconsin- Madison • Global average temperature increases of more than 2 degrees Celsius pose a significant risk to global ecosystems, and are likely to cause destructive and extreme weather patterns • Reductions in carbon dioxide emissions of approximately 80% from 2000 levels by 2050 will be necessary to limit temperature increases to below 2 degrees Celsius • While incremental improvement of established technologies and practices can achieve some progress, 80% reductions in GHG emissions will likely require fundamental systems changes The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2007 Assessment Report has estimated that:
  5. 5. Kevin Anderson, Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emissions scenarios for a new world
  6. 6. Source: 4° Turn Down the Heat, World Bank
  7. 7. Helps to justify the City’s engagement and involvement on long-term planning & development issues Gives staff latitude to engage on issues that go beyond the 10-year planning horizon Why set a long-term carbon reduction goal? Xcel Energy 2020 Projected Energy Mix (Based on current resource plans and energy forecasts)
  8. 8. Next Generation Energy Act Statewide GHG emissions reduction • 15% by 2015 • 30% by 2025 • 80% by 2050 *all below 2005 levels
  9. 9. Goal of developing a resilient region minimizes its contributions to climate change and is prepared for the challenges and opportunities of a changing climate.
  10. 10. Hennepin County is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by the year 2050 as part of the Cool County Initiative.
  11. 11. 37 US cities have articulated 80% plus goals or have demonstrated significant leadership in trying to achieve significant GHG reductions. New York Los Angeles Chicago Philadelphia San Jose San Francisco Austin Boston Seattle Nashville Portland Atlanta Albuquerque Sacramento Miami Minneapolis New Orleans Cincinnati Chula Vista CA Tacoma Alexandria VA Hayward CA Charleston SC Berkeley CA Richmond CA Boulder CO North Little Rock AK Santa Cruz CA Kirkland WA Olympia WA Blacksburg VA Annapolis MD Falmouth ME Burien WA Galloway NJ Alliance OH Kansas City Sources: O-H Community Partners, Innovation Network for Communities analysis
  12. 12. City Reduction Goal Notes Seattle 100% by 2050 The Seattle Climate Action Plan, adopted in June 2013, focuses on city actions that reduce greenhouse emissions and also support vibrant neighborhoods, economic prosperity, and social equity. Portland 80% by 2050 The City of Portland’s Climate Action Plan recommends actions to achieve a 40 percent reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 and an 80 percent reduction by 2050 (compared to 1990 levels). San Francisco 80% by 2050 San Francisco's Climate Action Strategy has identified 35 climate strategies to achieve the goals of zero waste, 50% trips without cars, and 100% renewable energy. Vancouver 80% by 2050 Greenest City 2020 is a bold initiative that will address Vancouver's environmental challenges. Fort Collins 80% by 2050 Rocky Mountain Institute study outlines what it would take to achieve an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 Boston 80% by 2050 Greenovate Boston is a community-driven movement to get all Bostonians involved in reducing the city’s greenhouse gas emissions 25% by 2020 and 80% by 2050, as outlined in the City’s Climate Action Plan. Chicago 80% by 2050 The Chicago CAP outlines 26 actions to reduce greenhouse gases and nine actions to prepare for climate change, helping the City, residents, and businesses reduce greenhouse gases by 25 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. Austin 40% by 2030 As part of their 2013 Climate Action Plan update, Austin held a 2-day community climate workshop where they set a target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Los Angeles 35% by 2030 The City of Los Angeles released its climate action plan in May 2007, which set forth a goal of reducing the City’s greenhouse gas emissions to 35% below 1990 levels by the year 2030, one of the most aggressive goals of any big city in the U.S. at the time New York City 30% by 2030 Report by the Urban Green Council looks at what it would take to achieve a 90% reduction by 2050
  13. 13. - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 MillionsofmetrictonsofCO2e Emissions from community-wide activities in Minneapolis Wastewater Solid Waste Air Travel (MSP) On-Road Transportation Natural Gas Consumption Electricity Consumption
  14. 14. If we… Make our commercial buildings 75% more efficient (3.75 times CAP goal) and We make our residential buildings 50% more efficient (3 times CAP goal) and Industrial processes become 30% more efficient and Electricity and natural gas usage stay flat and Xcel achieves an ~80% carbon-free electricity mix and We reduce VMT 10% and the on-road light-duty fleet averages 100 mpg and Carbon-neutral airline fuels are fully deployed and We process all our waste in a carbon-neutral fashion We would reduce our GHGs by roughly 80%.
  15. 15. 143 86 115 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2006 - 2012 period average 2015 - 2025 period 2025 - 2050 period ThousandsofmetrictonsofCO2e Annual reduction required to meet goals
  16. 16. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2012 5.7 mmtco2e 2006 4.882 mmtco2e -15% 2015 4.0 mmtco2e -30% 2025 Minneapolis Community GHG Reduction Targets
  17. 17. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2050 1.1 mmtco2e -80% 4.889 mmtco2e -14.88% 2012 Baseline: 5.7 mmtco2e 2006 4.882 mmtco2e -15% 2015 4.0 mmtco2e -30% 2025 Minneapolis Community GHG Reduction Targets
  18. 18. Sector/Issue Goals Buildings and Energy 1. Achieve 15% energy efficiency in residential buildings from the growth baseline by 2025 2. Achieve 20% energy efficiency in commercial/industrial buildings from the baseline by 2025 3. Increase electricity from local and directly purchased renewables to 10% by 2025 4. Achieve a 1.5% annual reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from City facilities Transportation and Land Use 1. Reduce automobile vehicle miles traveled (VMT) while improving accessibility, increasing transportation choices and accommodating equitable opportunity and growth 2. Support livable, walkable, bikeable, safe and growing neighborhoods that meet the needs of all residents, provide a range of housing types at all income levels, and protect against displacement of and provide opportunities to current residents, businesses and cultural communities 3. Support the Metropolitan Council's goal of doubling regional transit ridership by 2030, while improving access and livability for lower income households most reliant on public transit 4. Grow jobs and housing to support a growing economy and non-auto transportation modes 5. Increase the share of Minneapolis residents and workers choosing non-auto modes for commuting and other trips 6. Through local action and federal and state legislation, support a transition to cleaner fuels and more efficient vehicles 7. Promote and strengthen green infrastructure and natural systems that can build resilience, sequester or reduce emissions, and improve neighborhoods Waste and Recycling 1. Achieve a zero percent growth rate in the total waste stream from 2010 levels, with a long- term goal of achieving zero waste 2. Recycle 50 percent of the waste stream (commercial and residential) in Minneapolis by 2025, with a long-term goal of achieving zero waste 3. Increase organics collection to 15 percent of the waste stream by 2025 4. Reduce the flow of wastewater from Minneapolis and support efforts to make wastewater treatment more energy efficient 5. Increase awareness of the lifecycle impacts of products to address GHGs occurring outside the community
  19. 19. Emissions Source Carbon Reduction Strategy Example Initiatives Commercial & Residential Buildings Achieve net zero emissions in 100% of new buildings by 2030 • Net Zero building codes • Mandatory building benchmarking • Mandatory building commissioning • Geothermal heat pumps Achieve 30%-50% emissions reductions in 100% of existing buildings • Mandatory building retro-commissioning • Required retrofitting upgrades at transaction • Reduce appliance/equipment energy demand by 30% Industrial Achieve 3%+ annual improvements in energy efficiency of industrial processes, and reduce building energy use by at least 15% • Equipment upgrades • Process/product redesign • Mandatory retro-commissioning • Mandatory retrofitting Transportation Achieve annual net decreases in total Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) • Bike and pedestrian friendly streets • Bike sharing and car sharing • Increased access to transit • Performance based tolling and parking fees • Parking restrictions in high density areas • Employer-based demand management • Transit-Oriented Development Decrease emissions per VMT by 50%-75% • Increased vehicle mileage standards • Alternative low-carbon fuels (electric vehicles; bio-fuels; hybrids; fuel cells)
  20. 20. Emissions Source Carbon Reduction Strategy Example Initiatives Waste Eliminate 100% of solid waste disposed of via landfill or incinerator • Mandatory consumer and commercial recycling • Single or no-stream recycling (100% sorting of all waste) • Construction/demolition recycling & reuse • Organics composting and waste to energy Energy Generation Achieve 80%-90% de-carbonization of the electricity and heating supply • Replace 100% of coal fired electricity generation with natural gas or renewables • Implement on-site energy generation in 100% of eligible structures • Develop district energy/heating/cooling in 100% eligible densely built areas • Implement 50%+ renewable portfolio standards • Implement shared renewable power purchasing programs • Implement carbon capture and sequestration System- Wide Implement efficient land use planning • Increase residential density through urban growth boundaries and promotion of infill development • Ensure that at least 6+ acres of green space are available per 1000 residents Design municipal infrastructure for low carbon performance • Deploy smart grids across 100% of the municipality • Deploy high efficiency transmission lines across 100% of the municipality • Use smart infrastructure for 100% of city needs • Use green infrastructure to reduce the need for gray infrastructure
  21. 21. The Emissions Reductions Formula - - Total Emissions  Volume of gases added to the atmosphere Total Sinks  Volume of gases removed from the atmosphere Offsets  Volume equivalent of purchased credits = GHG Emissions Reduce absolute emissions quantity from a given base year Increase the quantity of GHG absorbed by carbon sinks Purchase carbon offsets to further reduce GHG emissions Total reductions targets may be 80% or more; if reductions reach 100%, carbon neutrality is achieved
  22. 22. Household Consumption Inventory, 2010 Housing 30% Transportation 29% Goods & Services 25% Food 15% Electricity 11% Nat. Gas 9% Furniture 5% Construction 4% Water 3% Car Fuel 22%Air Travel 4% Services 14% Other 7% Clothing 4% Meat 6% Other 3%
  23. 23. Recommendations: Carbon Reduction Goal: 80% by 2050 As part of our goal, continue to refine methods and research best practices for measuring consumption- based emissions
  24. 24. Timeline and Next Steps February 24: HECE Committee direction to develop a recommendation March 13: CEAC Climate Subcommittee Meeting April 10: Presentation to full CEAC with subcommittee recommendation April 11: Have a letter to present to the HECE Committee April 14: Presentation of CEAC recommendation to HECE Meeting