Faster Smarter Decision Cycles: The Key to Winning in the New Normal

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The Decision Cycle™ is a methodology for making and executing faster, smarter decisions at all levels of the organization.

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  • Appreciate the inclusion of Boyd in the presentation. Ryan Holiday would approve too!
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  • Now let’s look at the scope of our presentation. We will cover 5 topics today: A Brief History − What led to today’s presentationWe’ll begin with a brief history of what led to today’s presentation. Then, to put “Faster, Smarter Decision Cycles” into context, we’ll do a quick “fly-by” of the… The OODA Loop − The OODA Loop --- Observe, Orient, Decide, Act --- is a great example of seeing decisions as a continuous cycle. The dominant success factor is the speed of interaction with your environment. The OODA Loop was developed by Colonel John Boyd of the U.S Air Force, and….Incidentally, the co-author of Leland’s book, “Winning In FastTime®”, was Colonel John Warden, the U.S. air force colonel that General Colon Powell acknowledged as the architect of the Desert Storm air campaign. Wikipedia describes Warden as “the leading air power theorist of the second half of the twentieth century“ and “one of America’s premier strategic thinkers”. The Decision Cycle™ − Three Dimensions: Leland will give you the thinking behind the three dimensions & then…The Decision Cycle™ − the two of us will walk you through the Best Practice examples for each dimension The Decision Cycle™ − Three Applications
  • The MISSION OF FastTime® Leadership is to provide leaders and planners with methods for thinking, planning and acting that are fast, simple and cost effective.Our actions are based on THREE CORE BELIEFS: The first is…“Follow First Principles” - A first principle is a basic, foundational proposition. From a decade of research and hands-on experience with hundreds of leaders in the Fortune 500, as well as non-profits, government agencies and the military, WE HAVE IDENTIFIED 5 FIRST PRINCIPLES for winning in the New Normal: Forethought, Integration, Responsibility, Speed and Transitions.Leland was recently asked to write an article about these First Principles for the Leader-To-Leader Journal. If you would like an advance copy, please give is your card or email advisors@fasttime-leadership.comOur second core belief is “Deliver the essence of the best” and that’s what we’ll be doing today. Presenting a synthesis of the best thinking on “how to ensure faster, smarter decision cycles” Our third core belief is “Organize with radical simplicity”and that’s what we’ve done with our agenda. We will focus on the vital few things that will make the biggest difference for you in leading faster, smarter decision cycles.EXPLAIN HANDOUT 
  • Evolution of FastTime® - 1990, 2000, 2010Headline: 22 Years in the making TBD
  • Successful Client Applications (Leland)TBD
  • The Breakthrough Question (Leland)About two years ago, a client asked a question that fired my neurons: “How do you increase both the quality and speed of decisions at all levels of your organization?” Answering that question led to the creation of The Decision Cycle™ Assessment you are exploring today. Before we move into the Assessment, let’s clarify the meaning of some key terms. A decision is a commitment to a course of action. Decision Making is a cognitive process that creates a commitment to a course of action. Decisions translated into action are like pistons converting pressure into force that moves the organizational flywheel. The faster you make decisions, the faster the flywheel moves.Making and implementing faster, smarter decisions is the key to winning in the New Normal. Delivering on this task is a challenge for leaders at every level. Technology, globalization and interwoven financial markets not only reduce the time between events and decisions, they increase the consequences of decisions. In short, there is less room for error. That is why improving decision quality is absolutely essential. Because of rapid, often unpredictable change, time windows for decisions are closing faster than ever. When the rate of decisions falls behind the time windows, problems emerge because, in the New Normal, time is NOT on your side. Now let’s consider the “how” part of the question, which leads us into systems thinking. To achieve faster, smarter decisions at all levels of an organization, you need a whole system perspective. Piece-meal just doesn’t cut it. You have to understand and align the dots. You also have to see decisions as a continuous cycle occurring over time, rather than as a static snapshot.
  • A Aha! Moment (Leland)TBD
  • A The Value of Decision-Making Quality and Pace (Joyce)Joyce --- Explain this they way you explained it to me… You could start by saying, “A few years ago…. (it’s “Marakon Associates. I have several articles published by them and have)
  • Strategies and plans are decisions (Leland)TBD
  • The ODAA Loop (Leland)A great example of seeing decisions as a continuous cycle is the OODA Loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act), developed by a 20th century military genius, Colonel John Boyd of the United States Air Force.Boyd believed that the key to winning is to make smart decisions faster than your opponent. He was dubbed "Forty Second Boyd" because he consistently won aerial ‘dog fights’ in less than forty seconds. According to his theory, the speed of interaction with your environment is the dominant factor. The winner prevails because he makes his opponent respond to an obsolete perception of the environment. Boyd emphasized that rapid adaptation is critical to survival and that it can only be achieved through a dynamic decision process that is in synch with its changing environment. In an organization, the only practical way to apply the OODA Loop is to harness the decision making capacity of individuals at every level. But there is are two prerequisites: a high trust level and a common outlook.
  • Three Dimensions (Leland)The Decision Cycle™ Assessment evaluates a group’s capacity for fast, smart decision cycles in three dimensions:Decision StagesThe first dimension of the Assessment focuses on the processes that are critical for fast, smart decisions:Define – Frame the question, problem or opportunity.Generate / Compare – Explore and assess multiple alternativesDecide / Plan – Choose the best alternative and define action steps. Implement / Monitor – Take action and track the results. Review / Adjust - Think about your results and why and course correct.Decision EnablersThe second dimension of the assessment focuses on the means by which you achieve fast, smart decisions:Virtual Tools / Processes – to streamline and accelerate the processes. Collective Intelligence – to make smarter decisions with greater buy-in. Decision Ownership – to ensure urgency and accountability.Decision BehaviorsThe third dimension of the Assessment focuses on the personal conduct that is critical for fast, smart decisions:Trust Behaviors – Trust opens the door for honest communications.Participant Behaviors – Pace and quality require proactive participants.Cognitive Behaviors – Interrogate reality from multiple perspectives.
  • Best Practice / Weyerhaeuser – RULES OF ENGAGEMENTThe term "Rules of Engagement" derives from the military world, where it defines what is and is not permissible behavior in combat situations. These rules are not static; they are reconsidered as combat circumstances change. The fact that the Rules of Engagement are not set in stone is a tremendous advantage. Few situations are static; when the marketplace dynamics shift in a fundamental way or the organization moves into an entirely new situation, the Rules of Engagement should be re-evaluated. Do yesterday's rules still make sense?The task for leaders is to ensure that people have the right Rules of Engagement to meet the current situation and that they are SIMPLE. If they are too complex or too ambiguous, they are of little value. Most importantly, leaders must ensure that the current Rules of Engagement are known and understood throughout the organization. There is one special benefit to the ability to redefine the Rules of Engagement: it helps you shift the organization's decision-making patterns. Used in this way, Rules of Engagement can be an antidote to "legacy" mindsets and a powerful tool for managing FastTime structural change in an organization.
  • Decision Cycle Stages SummaryIn summary of the cycle stages, a Decision is a commitment to a course of action, and the Cycle is those processes and structures that are needed to quickly and effectively enact the decisionThe cycle is consistent with key principles and dynamics of Systems ThinkingThere is What You Know and The Rest (which you don’t know)As you enlarge what you know, you do not reduce the size of the Rest but you do get a better picture of The Whole and more insight into what you don’t know and how to tap thatThe cycle is also iterative: in each stage when you make a decision, you can actually go through a little mini-DC as you are moving onto the next stageKnowing and activating the 5 stages is necessary but not sufficient for enacting decisions effectively... And that is what we will focus on now: Decision Enablers and Decision Behaviors[Leland.. Where does the Decision Alignment and the Alignment Matrix as a tool for aligning content of different decision with the whole and each other fit..
  • Three Dimensions (Leland)The Decision Cycle™ Assessment evaluates a group’s capacity for fast, smart decision cycles in three dimensions:Decision StagesThe first dimension of the Assessment focuses on the processes that are critical for fast, smart decisions:Define – Frame the question, problem or opportunity.Generate / Compare – Explore and assess multiple alternativesDecide / Plan – Choose the best alternative and define action steps. Implement / Monitor – Take action and track the results. Review / Adjust - Think about your results and why and course correct.Decision EnablersThe second dimension of the assessment focuses on the means by which you achieve fast, smart decisions:Virtual Tools / Processes – to streamline and accelerate the processes. Collective Intelligence – to make smarter decisions with greater buy-in. Decision Ownership – to ensure urgency and accountability.Decision BehaviorsThe third dimension of the Assessment focuses on the personal conduct that is critical for fast, smart decisions:Trust Behaviors – Trust opens the door for honest communications.Participant Behaviors – Pace and quality require proactive participants.Cognitive Behaviors – Interrogate reality from multiple perspectives.
  • Joyce “At an ASP event last night in discussion with an Enterprise Architect from Cisco, biggest decision challenge in this complex multistage process is knowing who is accountable for making each decision that the Enterprise Architect function attempts to integrate  and align as they moves along a process from Strategy Formulation to Enterprise Architecture to Resource Allocation.”
  • Three Dimensions (Leland)The Decision Cycle™ Assessment evaluates a group’s capacity for fast, smart decision cycles in three dimensions:Decision StagesThe first dimension of the Assessment focuses on the processes that are critical for fast, smart decisions:Define – Frame the question, problem or opportunity.Generate / Compare – Explore and assess multiple alternativesDecide / Plan – Choose the best alternative and define action steps. Implement / Monitor – Take action and track the results. Review / Adjust - Think about your results and why and course correct.Decision EnablersThe second dimension of the assessment focuses on the means by which you achieve fast, smart decisions:Virtual Tools / Processes – to streamline and accelerate the processes. Collective Intelligence – to make smarter decisions with greater buy-in. Decision Ownership – to ensure urgency and accountability.Decision BehaviorsThe third dimension of the Assessment focuses on the personal conduct that is critical for fast, smart decisions:Trust Behaviors – Trust opens the door for honest communications.Participant Behaviors – Pace and quality require proactive participants.Cognitive Behaviors – Interrogate reality from multiple perspectives.
  • 18. Our people understand and creatively fulfill their roles in the decision cycle. The dynamic nature of today’s environment requires everyone at every level to be self-aware and proactive in the Decision Cycle. This is an example of one of our First Principles, Collective Responsibility --- in action. Everyone working together; everyone understanding and creatively fulfilling their roles in the decision cycle.The group value is that “tolerating, ignoring, or harboring lack of performance in others, or failing to creatively collaborate to make fast, smart decisions, is irresponsible behavior.” The French dramatist Molière, summed it up well, “It is not only what we do, but also what we do not do, for which we are accountable."
  • Applications
  • Faster Smarter Decision Cycles: The Key to Winning in the New Normal

    1. 1. Faster, Smarter Decision Cycles A FastTime® Leadership Presentation Presented by Joyce Reynolds-Sinclair, Ph.D., and Leland Russell ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 1
    2. 2. FastTime® Leadership Mission & Core Beliefs• Whom we serve We provide leaders and planners with• What we do methods for thinking, planning and acting• Why we are unique that are fast, simple and cost effective.• What we believe o Follow First Principles o Deliver the essence of the best o Organize with radical simplicity ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 2
    3. 3. Evolution of FastTime® 1990 2000 2010 GEO Paradigm GEO Paradigm™ Winning in FastTime® FastTime® LeadershipEver-accelerating Velocity ̶ Quantity ̶ Severity of Change / Complexity ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 3
    4. 4. ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 4
    5. 5. CHANGE ECONOMIC SHOCKS TECHNOLOGY CYBER BREACHES,CRIME, TERRORISM, WARS COMPETITION EXTREME WEATHERMAJOR ACCIDENTS DISRUPTIVE INNOVATIONS POLARIZING POLITICS MARKET PREDICTABILITY BUSINESS LIFESPAN ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 5
    6. 6. Applications of FastTime ® Successful Client Engagements ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 6
    7. 7. Breakthrough Question About the Quality and Speed of Decisions“How do you increase both the quality and speed of decisions at all levels of your organization?” ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 7
    8. 8. FastTime® The Decision Cycle ™ Why Decision Quality and Speed Are Important• Definitions: o A “Decision” is a commitment to a course of action. o “Decision Making” is a cognitive process that creates a commitment to a course of action.• Decision SPEED is important because: o Decisions translated into action are like pistons converting pressure into force that moves the organizational flywheel. o The faster you make decisions, the faster the flywheel moves. o Speed tends to win in the New Normal.• Decision QUALITY is important because globalization and teleconnectivity in increase the consequences of decisions. ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 8
    9. 9. The Value of Decision-Making Quality and Pace Source "More, Better and Faster Decision Making: Techniques for Exploiting Valuable Time," Presented by Mike Mankins of Marakon Associates to the Association for Strategic Planning Northern California Chapter on 1/20/2005 ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 9
    10. 10. FastTime® The Decision Cycle ™ Strategies, Plans and Actions are Decisions. • What assumptions do we make? • What objectives should we set? • What behaviors are needed to win? • What systems are we operating in? • What leverage points will we target? • How will we organize ourselves for success? • How will we orchestrate aligned actions? • How will we improve while we move? • How will we ensure winning transitions? ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 10
    11. 11. FastTime® The OODA Loop OBSERVE Forty Second Boyd ORIENT ACT A great example of A dynamic decision the importance of process for a complexseeing decisions as and rapidly changing a continuous cycle environment DECIDE ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 11
    12. 12. FastTime® The Decision Cycle ™ Stages Enablers Behaviors 3 DIMENSIONS ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 12
    13. 13. FastTime® Decision Stages Stage 1 1. We try to identify Decision Points as far in advance as possible. 2. We begin our decision process by framing what we need to decide. 3. We define our objectives when we need to make a decision. ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 13
    14. 14. FastTime® Decision Stages Stage 2 4. We generate alternative courses of action from which we will make our decisions. 5. We compare and contrast the alternative courses of action available to us. ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 14
    15. 15. FastTime® Decision Stages Stage 3 6. After hearing and reflecting on conflicting opinions, we make unambiguous decisions. 7. We are highly effective in translating decisions into plans with concrete milestones. ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 15
    16. 16. FastTime® Decision Stages Stage 4 8. We clarify and take action on the immediate next steps to achieve current milestones. 9. We operate transparently by keeping goals and results visible to everyone. 10. We continuously monitor how effective we are in implementing our key decisions. ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 16
    17. 17. FastTime® Decision StagesBEST PRACTICE Stage 4 Rules of Engagement Focus Sharply on Next Steps – Clearly identify the immediate Next Steps required to achieve the current milestones and make these crystal clear to everyone involved. Operate Transparently – Keep everyone‟s goals and results visible to everyone else to increase alignment, promote cross- functional problem solving and create peer pressure to perform. ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 17
    18. 18. FastTime® Decision Stages Stage 5 11. We pre-schedule implementation reviews for all key decisions to identify areas for improvement. 12. When we encounter obstacles that impede our progress, we adjust quickly. ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 18
    19. 19. FastTime® Decision StagesBEST PRACTICE Stage 5 After Action Reviews Q#1: What did we Q#2: What SET OUT TO DO? ACTUALLY HAPPENED? Q#3: WHY Q#4: What did did it happen? we LEARN? ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 19
    20. 20. FastTime® Decision Stages Generate Compare DecideReview Monitor Implement ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 20
    21. 21. FastTime® The Decision Cycle ™ Stages Enablers Behaviors 3 DIMENSIONS ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 21
    22. 22. FastTime® Decision Enablers ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 22
    23. 23. FastTime® Decision Enablers Virtual Virtual Tools Processes ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 23
    24. 24. FastTime® Decision Enablers 13. We leverage virtual tools and processes to increase the speed decision cycles. ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 24
    25. 25. FastTime® FastTime® CollaborationBEST PRACTICE Seamless Integration Facilitation Virtual Virtual TOOLS DESIGN PROCESSES ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 25
    26. 26. FastTime® Decision EnablersDIVERSITY of: CONTEXT of:Thinking Styles Safe EnvironmentLife Experiences Anonymous AnswersFunctional Expertise Fast-Cycle FeedbackInformation Sources Synthesis / Iterations ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 26
    27. 27. FastTime® Decision Enablers 14. We tap the collective intelligence of large, diverse groups to improve the quality of decisions. ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 27
    28. 28. FastTime® Decision EnablersBEST PRACTICE Face-to-Face CI Example Virtual CI Example Dialogue is deeper, faster during 25 teams --- 300 members total meeting from across levels and functions --- meeting weekly online • Issues are presented Each week a broad spectrum of • Participants respond real time via laptops views, opinions and ideas can be • Data, opinions, ideas quickly synthesized rapidly captured and synthesized. ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 28
    29. 29. FastTime® Decision EnablersBEST PRACTICE “It was a cost-effective way to engage our stakeholders in an iterative dialogue.” “Our leaders made better decisions because they were getting unfiltered information.” “The meetings were fast, efficient and effective — 60 minutes online equaled 2-3 hours face-to-face.” “The mass of ideas captured was impressive — all elements that could influence our success.“ “We were able to align multiple geographically dispersed teams quickly and cost-effectively.” ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 29
    30. 30. FastTime® Decision Enablers ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 30
    31. 31. FastTime® Decision Enablers 15. We identify who is accountable for quality and speed during each stage of the cycle. 16. We designate one leader to be accountable for the overall decision cycle. ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 31
    32. 32. FastTime® The Decision Cycle ™ Stages Enablers Behaviors 3 DIMENSIONS ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 32
    33. 33. FastTime® Decision Behaviors ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 33
    34. 34. FastTime® Decision Behaviors 17. We proactively manage the trust levels among our colleagues and stakeholders. ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 34
    35. 35. FastTime® Decision BehaviorsHigh High Trust Level Decisions Faster, Smarter Competency Open Communication Collaboration TRUST Creativity Transparency Cautious Compliant Character Passive-Aggressive Conscious SabotageLow ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 35
    36. 36. FastTime® Decision BehaviorsBEST PRACTICE Trust Audit Do people know what to expect from you? Do people believe that you will do what you say you will do? Do people believe that you pay attention to their interests? Do people believe that you are competent to perform your role? ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 36
    37. 37. Aligning for Collective ActionCollective CollectiveIntelligence Responsibility ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 37
    38. 38. FastTime® Decision Behaviors 18. Our people accept collective responsibility and proactively participate in the decision cycle. ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 38
    39. 39. FastTime® Decision Behaviors 19. We make a conscious effort to understand and compensate for our cognitive biases. ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 39
    40. 40. FastTime® Decision Behaviors I DRAWWe‟re not the rational thinkers Conclusionswe imagine. Our thoughtprocesses are often flawedby software defects between our ears. I ADDFor example, OVERCONFIDENCE. MeaningWhen professionals are asked torate themselves against peers,70% rate themselves in the I FOCUStop 10%. on aspects How I Create I OBSERVE Inference an Event my reality Leaps ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 40
    41. 41. FastTime® Decision BehaviorsBEST PRACTICE WORKSHOP Software Defects Between Our Ears • Comfort Zone THINKING ERRORS “We are unaware of the • Overconfidence limits of our awareness.” • Wishful Thinking ─ David Eagleman, author of Incognito: • Cognitive Anchoring The Secret Lives of the Brain • Selective Perception • Information Distortion “What I believe is the „truth‟ • Group Conformity Instinct because it based on the „facts‟ • Repetition / Source Amnesia that should be obvious to others.” • Fundamental Attribution Error ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 41
    42. 42. FastTime® The Decision Cycle ™ 20. We strive to continuously improve the quality and speed of our decision cycles. ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 42
    43. 43. FastTime® The Decision Cycle ™ Level One Self-Assessment Rating Notes Low 1 2 3 4 5 High Stages DEFINEDIMENSION I 1. We try to identify decision points as far in advance as possible. ─────────────────── 1. _____ 2. We begin our decision process by framing what we need to decide. ───────────────── 2. _____ 3. We define our objectives when we need to make a decision. ───────────────────── 3. _____ GENERATE / COMPARE 4. We generate alternative courses of action from which we will make our decisions. ────────── 4. _____ 5.We compare and contrast the alternative courses of action available to us. ────────────── 5. _____ DECIDE / PLAN 6. After hearing and reflecting on conflicting opinions, we make unambiguous decisions. ──────── 6. _____ 7. We are highly effective in translating decisions into plans with concrete milestones. ───────── 7. _____ IMPLEMENT / MONITOR 8. We clarify and take action on the immediate next steps to achieve our milestones. ────────── 8. _____ 9. We operate transparently by keeping goals and results visible to everyone. ───────────── 9. _____ 10. We continuously monitor how effective we are in implementing our key decisions. ───────── 10. _____ REVIEW / ADJUST 11. We pre-schedule implementation reviews to identify areas for improvement. ─────────── 11. _____ 12. When we encounter obstacles that impede our progress, we adjust quickly. ──────────── 12. _____ Enablers VIRTUAL TOOLS / PROCESSESDIMENSION II 13. We leverage virtual tools and processes to increase the speed of decision cycles. ────────── 13. _____ 14. We tap the collective intelligence of large, diverse groups to improve the quality of decision cycles. ─ 14. _____ 15. We identify who is accountable for quality and speed during each stage of the decision cycle. ─── 15. _____ 16. We designate one leader to be accountable for the overall decision cycle. ───────────── 16. _____ BehaviorsDIMENSION III PARTICIPANT BEHAVIORS 17. We proactively manage the trust levels among our colleagues and stakeholders. ────────── 17. _____ 18. Our people accept collective responsibility and proactively participate in the decision cycle. ──── 18. _____ 19. We make a conscious effort to understand and compensate for our cognitive biases. ──────── 19. _____ 20. We strive to continuously improve the quality and speed of our decision cycles. ─────────── 20. _____ Total ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 43
    44. 44. FastTime® The Decision Cycle ™ Applications Assessment Process FastTime® 5 eLearning FastTime® Decision Center• Process Briefing / eGuide • 5-Week Learning Cycle • eTools for the 5 Stages• Online Assessment / Report • Five 5-minute modules a week • User Guide / Boot Camp• Executive Briefing on Results • One 50-minute Teleforum a week • Turnkey Design and Support ©2012 Leland Russell | FastTime® Leadership Advisors 44

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