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• A probability is a
number between zero
(never occurs) and
one (always occurs)
that describes the
likelihood of an event.
• An event is a subset
of the possible
outcomes in a chance
• The compliment of
an event is the
opposite of the event.
That is, the even does
Ex: Let W be the event that we predicted which cup had the bottled
• The number of times an event happens is known
as the frequency of that event. Our frequency
• The relative frequency is the value calculated
by dividing the number of times an event occurs
by the total number of times an experiment is
carried out (written as a fraction, decimal, or %).
Our relative frequency was ______
• Imagine that you were to flip a coin 10 times and write
down your results (use H for heads and T for tails)
• Flip a penny 10 times and record your results.
• Label your first list “predictions”
• Label your second list “actual”
• The probability of an event can be thought of
as its long-run relative frequency when the
experiment is carried out many times.
• Believers think that if you flip TTTTTT then the next flip of
a coin is more likely to be H. It is true that in the long run
heads will appear half the time. What is a myth is that
future outcomes must make up for any imbalance.
• Coins and dice have no memories!
• After 10,000 flips the result of the first six flips doesn’t