191 6thsept.planning. 2012


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Planning 6th Sep

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191 6thsept.planning. 2012

  1. 1. By the end of this class you will have Gained an understanding of the decision making and planning process Considered your own decision making preferences Considered different decision making models Considered strategic and operational planning 1
  2. 2. A Very Simple View of the Management Process Planning . ..the directionControlling Organising...ensuring all goes ...the resourceswell to coordinate Leading ...getting the people to make the effort 2
  3. 3. But what did you find out in A Day in the Life exercise? Did the labels describe the reality of managerial work? Did your DIL manager talk about their ‘planning’ and leading’ roles? Do managers act out such roles, putting on different hats? e.g. on goes the planning hat? Of course they set aside time for planning, say a project meeting but how often? Do they look to see if their plans are on course ie control? Managing in SME is informal, talking, developing relationships, ‘fighting fires’, trying to motivate the ‘reluctant.’ 3
  4. 4. Individual decision-making Starts with need to know e.g. How are we going to present our case? What alternative ways could we use? Consider the options Criteria for making our decision e.g. time available Rank options Decide Did we set out to satisfice or optimise? Then the Doing stage
  5. 5. How do you make decisions? What is your ‘plan’ for the rest of the day? What decisions do you have to make today? This week? What are your plans for the next six weeks? For the exams? For the coming summer ( it will arrive)? What is your plan for your degree? For 2012? Beyond? What career plans do you have? What criteria do you apply? How do you go about planning? 5
  6. 6. How do you pull information together to make decisions? Are you a ‘picture person’ or a list ‘person’? Do you use a wall planner? Do you use a spreadsheet like Excel? Or do you keep it all in your head or rely on your diary? How do you weigh up different alternatives? What criteria do you use? For example, holiday vs chance to earn cash for next semester? Are you an ‘intuitive’ decision makers or a ‘rational’ decision maker? How do you go about making personal decisions? e.g. alcohol? 6
  7. 7. Steps in the Decision Making Process Identifythe problem [or opportunity] Generate alternative solutions Evaluate possible solutions Choose an alternative Implement Evaluate results (decision effectiveness) 7
  8. 8. The Rational Decision Making ModelIdentify the problem Assumes all informationand list alternatives is available to manager & consequencesRank each alternative Assumes manager can from low to high process information Assumes manager knows Select best the best future course of alternative the organizationClassical DM model see text p 75 8
  9. 9. Behavioural Model: Satisficing Identify the problem Time constraints Limited ability to understand all factors Seek an alternative Inadequate base only until finding one of information that is satisfactory Limited memory of Decision makers May not be Poor perception of factors Optimal decision To be considered In decision processAdministrative DM model 9
  10. 10. Limitations to Decision-making Bounded Rationality: the ability of managers to make rational decisions is limited by factors such as cognitive ability and time constraints Incomplete information: always inaccurate, ambiguous or incomplete Satisficing model: manager seeks alternatives until find one “good enough” rather than finding the optimal alternative 10
  11. 11. The Planning Process Planning is about deciding what to accomplish and how to do it SMART objectives:  Specific  Measurable  Attainable  Realistic  Time bound Types of Plans Short-Range Long-RangeOperational Strategic 11
  12. 12. Objectives drive everything. . . Example Your tutorial case presentation What are our objectives? 1. Your COMMUNICATION objectives 2. Your ACTION objectives What do you want the other students to go away knowing? What objectives drive your analysis and presentation? They are the ‘acid’ test: were we successful, did we achieve our objectives? Do we need to state them? YES. 12
  13. 13. Types of plans Strategic  Long-term e.g. 5-10 years  Concerned with overall direction, the ‘big picture’  Impact of the environment on the organisation  Top driven  Needs accurate, comprehensive information based on research  Long lead time before feedback 13
  14. 14. Operational Turning the strategy into reality e.g. production planning  human resource planning Lower level More immediate feedback e.g. customer satisfaction 14
  15. 15. Why is planning difficult? Incomplete information Cost of obtaining additional information Assumptions we make e.g. rationality Lack of control over externalities e.g. earthquake Power dynamics in organisations e.g. a difficult student in your group The human element e.g. never certainty 15
  16. 16. Is planning more difficult today than 20 years ago? Rapid change Turbulent environments e.g global warming Changing technology e.g information revolution Increased competition e.g FTA with China Globalisation e.g Fisher & Paykel decision to relocate to Thailand 16
  17. 17. What the planning process is not… ‘A plan is not a strategy, an intention is not a plan.’ Critically discuss this statement with the regard to the planning process