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CIAT cassava program in Asia

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Current and future direction if CIATs cassava program in Asia. Presentation at CIAT-Hanoi.

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CIAT cassava program in Asia

  1. 1. Adding value to cassava for diverse markets and uses: CIATs cassava program in Asia Hanoi, 2nd November 2018 CIAT Show and Tell
  2. 2. Cassava Program’s mission and objectives Mission: Create a sustainable cassava production system through agricultural innovations that will increase cassava production without increasing environmental pressures. 1. Ensuring efficient and sustainable production of adequate volumes of cassava for new value chains/markets (i.e. High pVA, waxy and small-granule) 2. Alleviating poverty and increasing wealth through agricultural innovations 3. Achieving better health and nutrition (i.e., low-GI starch) for consumers and producers and 4. Most effectively using and conserving the natural resource base upon which all of this depends. Objectives:
  3. 3. Cassava Program in Asia 1. Aggressively introduce 700+ LAC germplasm for screening CWB and CMD 2. Map cassava varieties to production areas in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar 3. Lead breeding efforts to develop high starch productive varieties with CMD and CWB resistance 4. Establish a Pest and Disease surveillance system for rapid response to potential outbreaks (i.e. PestDisPlace) 5. Develop a robust and sustainable cassava seed system to secure access to cost effective clean planting materials 6. Effective plant nutrition scheme 7. Understanding cassava value chains and markets
  4. 4. CIATs transdisciplinary cassava team in Asia
  5. 5. Cassava Program in Asia
  6. 6. Working in a broad range of agroecological zones
  7. 7. Working across different value chains: food, small-scale processing, large scale industrial processing
  8. 8. The regional value chain for cassava products involves large amounts of cross border trade
  9. 9. Including large volumes of planting material moving around the region FANTASTIC IN THE ABSENCE OF PEST AND DISEASE
  10. 10. The program consists of two interlinked projects • Developing cassava production and marketing systems to enhance smallholder livelihoods in Cambodia, Lao PDR and Myanmar ASEM/2014/053 • Developing value-chain linkages to enhance the adoption of profitable and sustainable cassava production systems in Vietnam and Indonesia AGB/2012/078
  11. 11. Framework for analysing incentives for private- sector investment in dissemination of technologies • Incentives for private-sector involvement and degree of involvement depend on three interrelated characteristics: • Inherent characteristics of the technology • Characteristics of the production system and farming community • Characteristics of the value chain, including ability of agribusiness actors to capture the benefits of any investment in technology dissemination • Different strategies for engagement with the private sector must be developed for each combination of technology type, value-chain actor, and production system
  12. 12. (1) Technology characteristics • ‘Learnability’ of the technology • observability • technological complexity • ease of trialling • Relative advantage of the technology • investment costs • profitability • ease and convenience • risk • reversibility
  13. 13. (2) Production system and community characteristics • Agronomic characteristics • Socio-economic characteristics • Political characteristics
  14. 14. (3) Value-chain characteristics • Chain characteristics • linkages between actors • external support actors • information transmission • level of competition • Actor characteristics • ability to capture benefits • profit orientation • risk orientation • enterprise scale • management horizon
  15. 15. Objectives of ASEM/2014/053 and AGB/2012/078 • Objective 1 – Assess opportunities and constraints for smallholder production and marketing of cassava within different value chains • Objective 2 – Increase the adoption of improved cassava production and processing technologies by strengthening linkages between primary value-chain actors (farmers, traders, processors) and with support actors (researchers, government agencies, industry bodies) • Objective 3 – Develop policy recommendations and facilitate learning alliances for the development of a sustainable cassava industry and improvement in rural livelihoods
  16. 16. On the demand side – the market outlook for cassava in Asia needs to be considered in the context of substitutes in different applications 1. Cassava for direct consumption or sale into short value chains as fresh roots for food. Competition with other food such as rice based on price and consumer preferences. 2. Global markets where cassava chips compete with other forms of carbohydrate for processing animal feed or ethanol such as maize, sorghum, wheat, molasses – oil, gas. 3. Markets where cassava starch competes largely on price with substitutes such as maize and potato starch, sugarcane. 4. Markets where the functional properties of the starch are desired. Consumer preferences, clean label segment, gluten free etc.
  17. 17. And on the supply side – the relative competitiveness against other land use in the context of different trends and shocks • Own price and relative prices to other commodities that can be produced in agroecological zones • Changes in costs of production • Changing labour costs and ease of mechanization • Long term climate trends • Changes in land suitability and land degradation • Floods and droughts • IMPACT OF PEST AND DISEASE
  18. 18. Value of cassava trade and relative importance of cassava starch in global trade Source: Comtrade Global trade largely is Southeast Asia exporting to East Asia and Southeast Asia 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Valueofexports(BillionUSD) Cassava starch Cassava (fresh&dried) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Valueofexports(BillionUSD) Other Potato starch Wheat starch Corn starch Cassava starch
  19. 19. 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 DomesticPrice(Baht/kg) ExportPrice(FOBUS/MT) Export Price (FOB US/MT) Domestic price (Baht/kg) Thai starch price 2006 - 2018 Cassava Mealybug Maize policy reform Reduction in planted area Flooding in Thailand Maize price in China DISEASE ?
  20. 20. Sweeteners 44% Monosodiu m Gultamate (MSG) 18% Whole Salers 13% Modified Starch 10% Paper 7% Tapioca Pearls 4% Textile 1% Other 3% Domestic utilisation of starch in Thailand (14.5% Root Equivalents) Source: TTTA Sweetener 30% MSG 17% Wholesaler 15% Modified Starch 10% Paper 6% Sago 4% Textiles 1% Ethanol 15% Other 2% 2017 – 1.66 Million MT Starch2015 – 1.495 Million MT Starch
  21. 21. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Valueofcassavaexports(billionusd) Value of cassava exports (2009-2017) Total (USD) China A billion dollar export crop for Vietnam for the past 6 years • A billion dollar USD export earner for Vietnam for starch and chips • Domestic utilisation in • MSG, • Paper and cardboard • Animal feed (chips and starch) • Noodles • Sweeteners and syrups • Traditional food
  22. 22. Smallholders cassava farmers part of a larger global carbohydrate market -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 USDPERMT Difference US Gulf Maize CNF China + VAT Chinese Futures (DCE) US Gulf Maize (FOB) Large stockpile remains: Rabobank still forecasts a 230m MT of stocks Reduction in price support Removal of scheme
  23. 23. Cumulative monthly exports from Thailand (Value) Dried chips Starch0.5% value 27% volume 25% value 15% volume 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Thaichipexportvalue(MillionUSD) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ThaiStarchexportvalue(MillionUSD) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
  24. 24. Cumulative monthly exports from Vietnam (Value) Dried chips Starch - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Valueofchipexports(millionUSD) 2010 2011 2012 2015 2016 2017 2018 - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Valueofstarchexpots(MillionUSD) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 31% value 47% volume 13% value 24% volume
  25. 25. Thailand 2017 = 281.7 million USD Vietnam 2017 = 282.2 million USD Cumulative monthly value of imports from Cambodia (fresh or dried) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ThaiImportValuefromCambodia(MillionUSD) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec VietnamimportsfromCambodia(MillionUSD) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 30% value 37% volume 50% value
  26. 26. Comparison between Thai and Indonesian prices -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Difference(Thai-Domestic@Factorygate) StarchPrice(USD/t) Difference Thai Starch (FOB Bangkok) Indonesia Starch (East Java) Thai + Freight -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Difference(Thai-Lampung) Rootprice(USD/t) Difference Lampung Roots ($US/MT) Thai Roots ($US/MT) Fresh roots Starch
  27. 27. Cumulative monthly exports from Thailand and Vietnam to Indonesia (million USD) Thailand Vietnam 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ThailandcassavastarchexportstoIndonesia (MillionUSD) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec VietnamcassavastarchexportstoIndonesia (MillionUSD) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
  28. 28. Difference in Thai cassava and US maize starch • Cassava starch has again become a relatively more expensive native starch for modification and deep processing • Eg. Manufacture of sweeteners • Short term options for Indonesian deep processors to remain competitive • Use alternative feed stock (maize) • Import processed products (glucose etc.). 2012 2018 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 USD/MT Difference Tapioca starch (Super High-Grade) FOB Bangkok Corn starch, Midwest
  29. 29. Biofuel prices and root equivalent price 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 USD/Litre Root cost in Ethanol (Thai) CBOT Ethanol (USD/litre)
  30. 30. 30 Some key features • Originally linked to failed Lao-Indo China Factory (Vientiane) • New factories (one chip and one starch) begin using contract farming • Chip factory provides capital to farmers to buy tractors • Starch factory linked to sister company in Nghe An Province in Vietnam • Stop contract models due to market volatility • Issues with access to working capital in value chain • Some farmers stop selling fresh roots to dry chip factory largely due to delays in payment • Begin making their own dry chips
  31. 31. 31 - Complex, well developed value chain for starch and chips - Many intermediate layers between farmers and final processors - Price differential between producers and processors indicates well-functioning value chain
  32. 32. 32 Value Chain Actor Buying Price Selling Price Farmer VND1000/kg Collector VND1000/kg VND1100/kg Small Trader VND1100/kg VND1200/kg (sale to large trader) VND1400-1550/kg (sale to processor) Large Trader VND1200/kg VND1400-1550/kg Starch Factory VND1400-1550/kg Chip Processor VND1400-1550/kg Prices of fresh cassava root for different value chain actors in Son La (2015) Value Chain Actor Buying Price Selling Price Farmer/household chip processor VND3200-3300/kg Collector VND3200-3300/kg VND3400/kg Small/Large Trader VND3400/kg VND3600-3700/kg Chip Processor/Trader VND3600-3700/kg VND4000/kg Prices of dry cassava chips for different value chain actors in Son La (2015)
  33. 33. Information on: 1. Information about the village 2. Different activities of farmers in the village 3. Timeline of key events related to cassava production and marketing in the village 4. Seasonal calendar (gender roles) 5. Cassava enterprise budget – cost and returns 6. Discussion of marketing – validate the value chain map 7. Ranking of different activities 8. Main constraints to cassava production and marketing 9. Potential interventions and ranking 33
  34. 34. • Competition for labour and other resources between rice production and other activities 34 • Introduction of the commercial cassava and changing production systems • Marketing problems and changes • Arrival of pest and disease
  35. 35. Grown by upland farmers to support livelihood security (Eastern Cambodia) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Chitr_borie Siem_bouk Snuol Total Riel/Year Millions Cassava Income Non-Cassava Cropping Income Total Livestock Income Off-farm Income 6m Riel = $1500 USD 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Income Quartiles Cassava Income Non-Cassava Cropping Income Total Livestock Income Off-farm Income 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Income Quartiles Cassava Income Non-Cassava Cropping Income Total Livestock Income Off-farm Income Gross total income % share of total income % share of cash income
  36. 36. Grown by upland farmers to support livelihood security (Lao PDR) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Income Quartiles Total Cassava Income Non-Cassava Cropping Income Total Livestock Income Off-farm Income 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Income Quartiles Cassava Income Non-Cassava Cropping Income Total Livestock Income Off-farm Income 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 KIP/Year Millions Total Cassava Income Non-Cassava Cropping Income Total Livestock Income Off-farm Income 20m Kip = $2350 USD Gross total income % share of total income % share of cash income
  37. 37. Grown by upland farmers to support livelihood security (DakLak Province - Vietnam) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Cukty Dang kang Ea sar Ea so Total VND/Year Millions Total Cassava Income Non-Cassava Cropping Income Total Livestock Income Off-farm Income Coffee 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Cassava Coffee Other crops Livestock Off-farm Income Sugarcane 40m Kip = $1745 USD Gross total income % share of cash income Marginal land & Limited resources
  38. 38. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Freshroot(USD/t) Jan-17 Apr-18 Farm gate = $28 Large price uncertainly - Fresh root prices at collection points & factory 25% SC 30% SC 30% SC
  39. 39. Participatory budgeting and scenario analysis in Lao PDR Price (THB/kg) Yield (t/ha) 0.9 1.6 2 15 - 15,650 - 5,150 850 20 - 11,150 2,850 10,850 25 - 6,650 10,850 20,850 35 2,350 26,850 40,850 Price (THB/kg) Yield (t/ha) 0.9 1.6 2 15 78.3 195.0 261.7 20 128.3 283.9 372.8 25 178.3 372.8 483.9 35 278.3 550.6 706.1 Shadow wage rate = 220 ~$650USD/ha returns to household owned resources
  40. 40. Meetings with industry and other stakeholders to plan activities
  41. 41. Demonstration site in industry fields
  42. 42. Demonstration trials in farmers fields
  43. 43. 47
  44. 44. Cassava agent Cassava trader
  45. 45. New varieties in Eastern Indonesia
  46. 46. Consumer preference in Eastern Indonesia
  47. 47. Stakeholder meetings
  48. 48. Website: http://cassavavaluechains.net/
  49. 49. Join the conversation at : https://www.facebook.com/groups/1462662477369426/ ACIAR Cassava Value Chain and Livelihood Program
  50. 50. Adding another level of production risk from emerging pest and disease will significant impacts rural livelihoods, industry and national economies
  51. 51. KU50 Rayong11 Cassava witches broom in variety evaluations
  52. 52. Cassava witches broom disease impact on starch yield
  53. 53. Cassava witches broom in fertiliser demonstrations
  54. 54. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30Freshweightyield(t/ha) Both KU50 Rayong 11 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Starchyield(t/ha) Both KU50 Rayong 11 Cassava witches broom disease impact on MRR to fertiliser
  55. 55. Large impact of disease the farm and processing economics Typically 1000t roots = 250t starch With disease 1000t roots = 140t starch Processor in Cambodia
  56. 56. KU50 Rayong 11 SC8 HuayBong60 KM98-1 Rayong 5 50m apart
  57. 57. Regional workshop of CMD
  58. 58. Fertility management trials: Potassium (K) trial
  59. 59. New methods technologies for evaluation
  60. 60. Engagement with industry
  61. 61. Evaluation of new clones with partners: over 200 new clones in TayNinh
  62. 62. Variety identification
  63. 63. Infer cassava materials likely to increase virus presence KU50
  64. 64. 4. Cassava seed systems in Southeast Asia Cassava seed exchange networks – both opportunity and threat: + Allow farmers to recover from stake loss (drought, etc.) + Enhance dissemination of new varieties + Specialized production of high quality seed -> higher yields + High investment and renewal rates suggest business potential - Spread of seed borne pests & diseases - National pest & disease issues rapidly become regional Informal/farmer system: - >95% seed supply - Frequent international movement - No phytosanitary control Formal seed system: - <5% seed supply - High quality, potential certification - High cost Stakes for sale in Southern Vietnam; CMD symptoms visible on sprouting stakes Photo: Sok Sophearith Photos: Cu Thi Le Thuy 5 4 3 2 2 94 1 1 17 1 6 1 Incidents of international stake movement detected in one season of surveys in Cambodia. Yellow-Thailand, Red-Vietnam, Blue-Laos
  65. 65. Seed system research
  66. 66. Tracking of disease: technically easy – politically difficult
  67. 67. New ACIAR project Objective 1: Assess the opportunities and challenges for the development of sustainable solutions to cassava disease management in mainland Southeast Asia Objective 2: Develop commercially viable cassava varieties resistant to Cassava Mosaic Disease (CMD) and Cassava Witches Broom Disease (CWBD) Objective 3: Develop and deploy diagnostic protocol, tools and information platforms fit for purpose in monitoring, surveillance, and certification applications. Objective 4: Develop an economically sustainable cassava seed system for the rapid dissemination of new varieties and clean planting material to farmers
  68. 68. Cassava Program in Asia

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