The Rogers Diffusion Curve:
Applied to the Legal Industry
William Henderson
Indiana University Maurer School of Law
Lawyer...
“[A]ll models are wrong,
but some are useful.”
-- George E.P. Box, Statistician
Rogers Diffusion
Curve

Time
100%

Rogers Diffusion
Curve

50%

Time
Figure 1. Percentage of Farm Operators First Hearing of Hybrid Seed
Corn and Percentages First Accepting It, by years

Sou...
Percentage of Total Acreage Planted with Hybrid Seed

Source: “Hybrid Corn: An Explanation in the Economics of Technologic...
Percentage of Total Acreage Planted with Hybrid Seed

Manufacturing

Finance

Medicine

Consulting

Law

Source: “Hybrid C...
Legal
Complexity

Reality

Rise of the
Large Firms

1914

Experience and
Perception

1984

Corporate
Growth
© William D He...
Legal
Complexity

Reality

Rise of the
Large Firms

1914

Higher
profits
Experience and
Perception

1984

2014

Corporate
...
Legal
Complexity

Reality

Search for
substitutes to
deal with cost
and quality

Rise of the
Large Firms

1914

Higher
pro...
Two Hemispheres

Hemisphere 1:

People Clients

Hemisphere 2:

Organizational
Clients
Organizational
Clients

BigLaw

Regional Law Firms

Solo & Small Firms

People
Clients

“Two-Hemispheres”

Y

Artisan Guil...
Organizational
Clients

BigLaw

Regional Law Firms

Solo & Small Firms

People
Clients

“Two-Hemispheres”

Y

Artisan Guil...
Organizational
Clients

Low Cost
Providers

BigLaw

Regional Law Firms

Solo & Small Firms

People
Clients

“Two-Hemispher...
Organizational
Clients

Low Cost
Providers

BigLaw

Regional Law Firms

Solo & Small Firms

People
Clients

“Two-Hemispher...
Organizational
Clients

Low Cost
Providers

eDiscovery
Vendors

BigLaw

Regional Law Firms

Solo & Small Firms

People
Cli...
Organizational
Clients

In-House Vertical
Integration
NewLaw – e.g.
Axiom, Novus

BigLaw

Low Cost
Providers

eDiscovery
V...
Organizational
Clients

In-House Vertical
Integration
NewLaw – e.g.
Axiom, Novus

BigLaw

LeanLaw

TechLaw
KM &
Analytics
...
Variables Determining
Rate of Adoption

Dependent Variable to
Be Explained

Perceived Attributes of Innovation
1. Relative...
Variables Determining
Rate of Adoption

Dependent Variable to
Be Explained

Perceived Attributes of Innovation
1. Relative...
Increasing the Speed of Innovation: Lessons Learned
Relative Advantage
Substitutes to make better, faster, or cheaper
Redu...
The Rogers Diffusion Curve: Applied to the Legal Industry
The Rogers Diffusion Curve: Applied to the Legal Industry
The Rogers Diffusion Curve: Applied to the Legal Industry
The Rogers Diffusion Curve: Applied to the Legal Industry
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

The Rogers Diffusion Curve: Applied to the Legal Industry

1,141 views

Published on

The Rogers Diffusion Curve maps the progress of adoption from invention through embrace to the final state. In these slides, that model is applied to the use of technology in the legal marketplace.

Published in: Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,141
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
202
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
32
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

The Rogers Diffusion Curve: Applied to the Legal Industry

  1. 1. The Rogers Diffusion Curve: Applied to the Legal Industry William Henderson Indiana University Maurer School of Law Lawyer Metrics LLC
  2. 2. “[A]ll models are wrong, but some are useful.” -- George E.P. Box, Statistician
  3. 3. Rogers Diffusion Curve Time
  4. 4. 100% Rogers Diffusion Curve 50% Time
  5. 5. Figure 1. Percentage of Farm Operators First Hearing of Hybrid Seed Corn and Percentages First Accepting It, by years Source: Ryan, B., & Gross, N. C. (1943). The diffusion of hybrid seed corn in two Iowa communities. Rural Sociology 8:15-24.
  6. 6. Percentage of Total Acreage Planted with Hybrid Seed Source: “Hybrid Corn: An Explanation in the Economics of Technological Change” in Technology, Education, and Productivity (1988).
  7. 7. Percentage of Total Acreage Planted with Hybrid Seed Manufacturing Finance Medicine Consulting Law Source: “Hybrid Corn: An Explanation in the Economics of Technological Change” in Technology, Education, and Productivity (1988).
  8. 8. Legal Complexity Reality Rise of the Large Firms 1914 Experience and Perception 1984 Corporate Growth © William D Henderson, 2014
  9. 9. Legal Complexity Reality Rise of the Large Firms 1914 Higher profits Experience and Perception 1984 2014 Corporate Growth © William D Henderson, 2014
  10. 10. Legal Complexity Reality Search for substitutes to deal with cost and quality Rise of the Large Firms 1914 Higher profits Experience and Perception 1984 2014 2044 Corporate Growth © William D Henderson, 2014
  11. 11. Two Hemispheres Hemisphere 1: People Clients Hemisphere 2: Organizational Clients
  12. 12. Organizational Clients BigLaw Regional Law Firms Solo & Small Firms People Clients “Two-Hemispheres” Y Artisan Guild Criminal Defense / Public Defenders Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized X Susskind ‘s Market Evolution © William D Henderson, 2014
  13. 13. Organizational Clients BigLaw Regional Law Firms Solo & Small Firms People Clients “Two-Hemispheres” Y Artisan Guild Criminal Defense / Public Defenders Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized X Susskind ‘s Market Evolution © William D Henderson, 2014
  14. 14. Organizational Clients Low Cost Providers BigLaw Regional Law Firms Solo & Small Firms People Clients “Two-Hemispheres” Y Multidisciplinary Teams Artisan Guild Criminal Defense / Public Defenders Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized X Susskind ‘s Market Evolution © William D Henderson, 2014
  15. 15. Organizational Clients Low Cost Providers BigLaw Regional Law Firms Solo & Small Firms People Clients “Two-Hemispheres” Y Multidisciplinary Teams Artisan Guild PeopleLaw – e.g., Modria and Legal Force Criminal Defense / Public Defenders Bespoke Standardized Systematized Legal Publishers e.g., LegalZoom, Rocket Lawyer Productized Commoditized X Susskind ‘s Market Evolution © William D Henderson, 2014
  16. 16. Organizational Clients Low Cost Providers eDiscovery Vendors BigLaw Regional Law Firms Solo & Small Firms People Clients “Two-Hemispheres” Y Multidisciplinary Teams Artisan Guild PeopleLaw – e.g., Modria and Legal Force Criminal Defense / Public Defenders Bespoke Standardized Systematized Legal Publishers e.g., LegalZoom, Rocket Lawyer Productized Commoditized X Susskind ‘s Market Evolution © William D Henderson, 2014
  17. 17. Organizational Clients In-House Vertical Integration NewLaw – e.g. Axiom, Novus BigLaw Low Cost Providers eDiscovery Vendors LeanLaw e.g., Seyfarth Regional Law Firms Solo & Small Firms People Clients “Two-Hemispheres” Y Multidisciplinary Teams Artisan Guild PeopleLaw – e.g., Modria and Legal Force Criminal Defense / Public Defenders Bespoke Standardized Systematized Legal Publishers e.g., LegalZoom, Rocket Lawyer Productized Commoditized X Susskind ‘s Market Evolution © William D Henderson, 2014
  18. 18. Organizational Clients In-House Vertical Integration NewLaw – e.g. Axiom, Novus BigLaw LeanLaw TechLaw KM & Analytics Vendors Low Cost Providers eDiscovery Vendors E.g., kCura, Recommind, Lex Machina e.g., Seyfarth Regional Law Firms Solo & Small Firms People Clients “Two-Hemispheres” Y Multidisciplinary Teams Artisan Guild PeopleLaw – e.g., Modria and Legal Force Criminal Defense / Public Defenders Bespoke Standardized Systematized Legal Publishers e.g., LegalZoom, Rocket Lawyer Productized Commoditized X Susskind ‘s Market Evolution © William D Henderson, 2014
  19. 19. Variables Determining Rate of Adoption Dependent Variable to Be Explained Perceived Attributes of Innovation 1. Relative Advantage 2. Compatibility 3. Complexity 4. Trialability 5. Observability Type of Innovation-Decision 1. Optional 2. Collective 3. Authority Rate of Adoption of Innovation Communication Channels Increased by more and better mediums Nature of Social System E.g, traditional versus modern, isolated or interconnected to other systems Efforts of Change Agents Educational and promotional efforts Adapted from Everett Rogers, Diffusion of Innovation Fig 6.1 (2003)
  20. 20. Variables Determining Rate of Adoption Dependent Variable to Be Explained Perceived Attributes of Innovation 1. Relative Advantage 2. Compatibility 3. Complexity 4. Trialability 5. Observability Type of Innovation-Decision 1. Optional 2. Collective 3. Authority Rate of Adoption of Innovation Communication Channels Increased by more and better mediums Nature of Social System E.g, traditional versus modern, isolated or interconnected to other systems Efforts of Change Agents Educational and promotional efforts Adapted from Everett Rogers, Diffusion of Innovation Fig 6.1 (2003)
  21. 21. Increasing the Speed of Innovation: Lessons Learned Relative Advantage Substitutes to make better, faster, or cheaper Reducing Complexity Making adoption incremental and natural Creating Observability Showcasing others’ successes (cornfields) Allowing Trialability Pilots to decrease fear of adoption Decision-Making Mandated vs optional vs collective Communication Channel Mass media vs interpersonal vs internet Leaders and Laggards Across and within organizations Interconnectedness The whole is greater than the sum of its parts

×