Fusion IO - Trends and Outlook

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Fusion IO - Trends and Outlook

  1. 1. Fusion I/OTrendsOutlookJon Carvinzer – May 2013 1SSDPCIe
  2. 2. Agenda21. Review of Major Players2. Trends Impacting Them3. How to Consider Big Data4. Workloads / Use Case5. Fusion IO – What to Expect6. Potential Partnerships7. Outlook for Enterprise adoption going forward8. Summary9. Q&A
  3. 3. Presenter’s Background3A specialist within the Semiconductor, Software and Internet technologies industriesHave designed some of the world’s best Tablets, Smartphones and PCs for companies such asApple, Samsung, Google Amazon, Dell, hp and LG.I specializes in the following areas:· Networking (WiFi, LTE, 4G) – Broadcom, Qualcomm, Atheros, ZTE, MediaTek· Communications (baseband, small cells, 3G/4G overlay) – Mellanox, Cavium· I/O (touch, gestures, oncell/incell, ITO) – Samsung, LG, Synaptics, Cypress, Atmel, TI· Displays – (IGZO, AMOLED, LCD/LED, Flexible) – Sharp, LG, Samsung, Sony, Corning· Server/Data Center – cloud computing, storage, big data· Speech/Voice navigation – Google, Microsoft, Nuance, Siri· CPUs (ARM, MIPs, x86) - Qualcomm, Intel, AMD, MediaTek, Imagination Technologies, nVidia, Apple, Marvell· Operating Systems (Android/Windows/iOS/Mac) – Google, Microsoft, Tizen· Storage (HDDs/SSDs, Flash/RAM) – Fusion I/O, Virident, OCZ, EMC, Seagate, WD, LSI, Micron, Sandisk, TDK, NAND· NFC/RFID – NXP Semiconductor, TI, ST Micro, Infineon· MEMS Controllers (Gyro, Accelerometer, GPS) – Invensense, ST Micro, Phillips, AMS· PC – Dell, hp, Intel, Microsoft, Best Buy, Acer, Asus, Lenovo· Battery Technologies – Inductive charging, fuel-cells, solar, alternative energy supply, Li-Ion/Li-Polymer· Accessories – tablet keyboards, cases, audio enhancers, disposable· Wearable devices – Google, Fitbit, Jawbone – *HOT* and emerging· Audio/Video controller – Cirrus, Wolfson, ATI, Imagination technologies, nVidia· Advertising – Zynga, Facebook, Yahoo, Google, Microsoft, Comcast and Yoku· Business processes – development, procurement, logistics, Bill of Materials (BOM)· Commerce – retailers, e-tailers, hybrid delivery model – Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart, Apple
  4. 4. Major Players | SSDs (Client and PCIe)4Fusion I/O Considered the gold standard or benchmark by which others are judged – keydifferentiator is CPU cycles are used on the server/host sideViolin Memory Rack mount player (not PCIe), recently acquired GridIron systems for S/WSTEC Pioneer in Enterprise w/ CellCare S/W but declining player nowSkyera(StorCloud)Rack mount player like Violin and TMS but more S/W IP and integration. Run byfounder and CTO of SandforceOCZ Technology OEM and SMB player for SSD & PCIe for Enterprise – reducing SAMsVirident Has controller IP like OCZ and competes w/ TMS & VMS more than FIO due tolegacy S/W SupportWhipTail Appliance style SSD RAID type vendor – competes w/ white box OEMsTMS/IBM Rack mount and PCIe player – most like VMS and ViridentNimbus Data They use Open array of SAS SSDs, vs proprietary:- TMS, Violin oropen array of PCIe SSDs like Fusion-ioPure Storage Makes SAN compatible SSD storage w/ removable MLC drives – poor man’s FIO.Notables: Micron, LSI, Intel, EMC, Samsung, Seagate, Western Digital, Marvell
  5. 5. Trends Impacting Major Players-The number of enterprise PCIe SSD players looking for acquisition or partnershipwill increase by 50% over the next 2 years.-Companies that don’t have flash memory deals will be under a cost disadvantage asthe availability of SSDs will be constraint in 2014-16.-All PCIe companies will experience a noteable ASP decline as competition has 3xsince 2010.-Companies that have software/virtualization IP as well as access to flash memorymanufacturing will be best positioned to slow the pace of ASP/Margin decline.5
  6. 6. How to Consider “Big Data”6The key is to keep the“hot data” closest tothe server processing– which is best donew/ flash memory onan PCIe card in therack itself (Fusion IO)and the cold datastored away, which isbest done by the tonsof HDD arrays thatmake up NASs andSANs (EMC, Dell, hp,IBM, Seagate, WDC,etc.)
  7. 7. SOLVES: Performance gap between serverprocessing and the storage technology.Intel provides exceptional server processingpower but storage technology traditionally(think EMC) has lagged behind and databaseperformance bottleneck is increasingly shiftingtowards the storage.Interfaces (FC, iSCSI, SAS and SATA) for thebackend disk rotational speed has topped at15K due to physical and mechanical limitations.SSS can either be made available to the serversvia the traditional FC, SAS, iSCSI interfaces orplaced directly into the server PCIe slot withoutrequiring traditional storage networkinterfaces.SOLVES: Boot time and application loadperformance, power management andthinness.Interfaces (SATA) for the development ontotraditional PC clients.Interfaces (PCB) for super thin tablets andsmart phones.SSDs provide a minimum of 2X performanceimprovements:- Reduced boot time from 45 to 16 seconds- Increase battery life by 20-40%- Enable 30-40% Z-height reduction7Workloads and Use Cases
  8. 8. Workloads and Use Cases8Most often discussed use cases involve:• cloud-based interaction, serving, storage and processing (Facebook, Apple,Salesforce, YouTube, etc).However, the most common traditional IT use cases all involvesome type of high performance workload(s):• server virtualization• desktop virtualization (VDI),• database (OLTP, real-time analytics) and• cloud computingThese are the types of customers environments that are the other99%! This is where Fusion IO has to grow and others (Top 10) areaiming for.
  9. 9. 9Fusion IO | What to Expect in 2013• New CEO in place using hp-style customer expansion and geo reach priorities• Expect Opex to come down a bit – the hp way.• 2nd Gen ioScale and 3rd Gen ioDrive in back half of 2013 on 20 nm NAND• Expect COGs to not be impacted in 2013, but a slight downtick in 2014• Software developers access via kits to broader IT participants• This will help make it easier to deploy with less hand holding• Moving away from glam-usage models to broader SMB type applications• Single most critical event to their growth and sustainability as spendingfrom Top 3 (65% of revenue) will decrease in the back half• Accelerated deployment of NexGen appliance product• Moves away from Web-scale concentration of in-server deployment to themore broadly used in Enterprise applications.
  10. 10. 10Fusion IO | What to Expect in 2014-16• Virident is closest to Fusion IO than any other PCIe card• With Seagate OEMing FlashMax it will allow for STX (who has access toSamsung NAND flash) to under cut FIO.• EMC also OEMs Virident for XtremSF product line.• FIO moving to tick-tock cadence – ala Intel• Major developments in roadmap every 12 months• Mid life kickers (or refreshes) every 6 months• Will enable 15nm to 10nm by 2014/2015• TLC in ioDrive by 2016
  11. 11. Fusion IO| Potential Partnership11
  12. 12. Enterprise Storage Market Going Forward12~$4.5 billion market for server-side flash storage in 2012 – based on revenue of topplayers.If you broaden the addressable market to include the “performance tier of spinning diskstorage” then you have a market opportunity between $14 billion and $20 billionFlash storage market is obviously soaring — up 70% a year in 2012, but expected to be inmid 40s% in 2013Courtesy Storagegaga
  13. 13. Summary | FIO & Enterprise Storage Marketplace131. Expect FIO Opex to remain level as SGA is cut but R&D increasesfor ‘tick-tock’ roadmap.2. Expect FIO gross margins to continue to decline as SMB andappliance markets are addressed and ‘real’ competition hasincreased.3. Look for consolidation by end of CY 2013 – as enterprisequalifications take ~6 months.4. Expect 1-2 more stealth-mode start ups emerge to serve non-PCIe enterprise implementations.5. Lastly – expect the large HDD/SAN/NAS players to become moresignificant market participants.
  14. 14. Rather than replacing HDDs, SSDs and flash memory are enabling new devices and newapplications, and increasing the demand for storage of digital data on more cost-effective HDDs.The result is the overall demand for HDD storage capacity continues to grow at over 40 percenta year compounded. Driven by:One more thing … | HDD will thrive with SSDsContent from mobile devicesSynchronizing data across multiple devicesThin and light notebooks14
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