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The Design Rationale for
Turing’s Nightmares:
Scenarios and
Speculations on “The
Singularity”
John Charles Thomas, Ph.D.
h...
My Background
Dissertation compared human behavior in problem
solving to AI program.
Worked in various aspects of Human-Co...
“The Singularity”
Refers to a hypothetical
time in the not so distant
future when a computer
system will be developed
with...
Current Context
Computer HW continues to be faster, cheaper, lower power.
Advances in AI techniques continue.
More is bein...
Current Context
Whether or not this actually results in “The
Singularity” or not, it is clear that significant
practical ap...
Time is of the Essence
Now is the time to
consider the possible
implications of Artificial
Intelligence for society,
econom...
Method to Examine Possible
Implications: Scenarios
Scenarios help us examine
our own emotional
reactions to possible
futur...
Turing’s Nightmares
First appeared as a blog series on
wordpress.com
Chose disparate scenarios to explore
possible issues,...
Artwork
Artwork adds to cost but induces moods.
Like possible futures of AI:
Some images are distortions of what we
alread...
Easter Eggs/Humor
Decisions about AI will require
creativity and calm
Although decisions are
important, stress makes
creat...
References
Barrat, J. Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era. St. Martin’s Griffin, 2015.
Bostrom, N. Superint...
Other Books by John
Charles Thomas, Ph.D.
The Winning Weekend Warrior: How to
succeed at golf, tennis, baseball, football,...
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Design rationale for turing's nightmares

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Possible scenarios around the future of AI and The Singularity

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Design rationale for turing's nightmares

  1. 1. The Design Rationale for Turing’s Nightmares: Scenarios and Speculations on “The Singularity” John Charles Thomas, Ph.D. http://www.createspace.com/6026578
  2. 2. My Background Dissertation compared human behavior in problem solving to AI program. Worked in various aspects of Human-Computer Interaction for a dozen years at IBM Research. Executive Director of AI lab at NYNEX for a dozen years. Returned to IBM Research to work in knowledge socialization, complexity, human computer interaction, and cognitive computing.
  3. 3. “The Singularity” Refers to a hypothetical time in the not so distant future when a computer system will be developed with super-human intelligence capable of creating a still more intelligent system.
  4. 4. Current Context Computer HW continues to be faster, cheaper, lower power. Advances in AI techniques continue. More is being learned about the human brain to “inspire” possible techniques. Increased speed and power of HW means more experiments can be run to further improve AI techniques more quickly. As AI provides more results, more computer scientists begin using these techniques. This provides a “virtuous cycle” of improvements.
  5. 5. Current Context Whether or not this actually results in “The Singularity” or not, it is clear that significant practical applications of AI will continue to grow. *Every* new technology has social, political and ethical implications. This is particularly so with Information Technology and Artificial Intelligence.
  6. 6. Time is of the Essence Now is the time to consider the possible implications of Artificial Intelligence for society, economics, jobs, health, crime and punishment, welfare, defense, energy policy, education, human communication, and so on.
  7. 7. Method to Examine Possible Implications: Scenarios Scenarios help us examine our own emotional reactions to possible futures. Although none of the scenarios may come true in detail, considering them helps us prepare for whatever comes.
  8. 8. Turing’s Nightmares First appeared as a blog series on wordpress.com Chose disparate scenarios to explore possible issues, positive and negative that can come from attempt to create “super-intelligence.” Too unsure of future to develop a single coherent narrative. Inspired by Alan Lightman book called, “Einstein’s Dreams” — a set of scenarios about possible universes in which time operates differently.
  9. 9. Artwork Artwork adds to cost but induces moods. Like possible futures of AI: Some images are distortions of what we already see today. Some are are unrecognizable, though if you look closely, you can see echoes of today. Some look like ordinary pictures but have something hidden behind the scenes. Also meant to connote continuity because images made by author’s grandfather, author, author’s son, and author’s grandson.
  10. 10. Easter Eggs/Humor Decisions about AI will require creativity and calm Although decisions are important, stress makes creativity and calm more difficult Hence, humor and “Easter Eggs” — some obvious & some more subtle
  11. 11. References Barrat, J. Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era. St. Martin’s Griffin, 2015. Bostrom, N. Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Oxford University Press, 2014. Kurzweil, R. The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. Penguin Books, 2006. Thomas, J. Patterns for Emergent Global Intelligence. In Creativity and Rational: Enhancing Human Experience by Design, J. Carroll, (Ed). New York: Springer, 2012. Thomas, J. and Richards J. Achieving Psychological Simplicity: Measures and Methods to Reduce Cognitive Complexity. In The Human Computer Interaction Handbook. J. Jacko (Ed). CRC Press, 2012 Thomas, J. An HCI Agenda for the Next Millennium: Emergent Global Intelligence. In R. Earnshaw, R. Guedj, A. van Dam, and J. Vince (Eds.), Frontiers of Human-Centered Computing, Online Communities, and Virtual Environments. London: Springer-Verlag, 2001.
  12. 12. Other Books by John Charles Thomas, Ph.D. The Winning Weekend Warrior: How to succeed at golf, tennis, baseball, football, basketball, hockey, volleyball, business, life, etc. http://tinyurl.com/ng2heq3 Fit in Bits: How to Stay in Shape when you Absolutely, Positively Have no Time.

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