Using scenarios to guide copper exploration targeting strategies - Sykes - Sep 2015 - Centre for Exploration Targeting / Curtin University / University of Western Australia

1. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, AustraliaCurtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia USING SCENARIOS TO GUIDE COPPER EXPLORATION TARGETING STRATEGIES John P. Sykes PhD Candidate Department of Mineral & Energy Economics Centre for Exploration Targeting, Curtin University johnpaul.sykes@postgrad.curtin.edu.au 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 1 of 34

2. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia THE PROBLEM Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 2 of 34

3. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia Explorers need to know the future of mining 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Which of these will be a major mine in the next 10-20 years? Images: foxnews.com; mining.com; arizonageology.blogspot.com; bgk-udokan.ru; dawn.com; investroshub.advfn.com Pebble, Alaska Pampa Escondida, Chile Resolution, Arizona Udokan, Russia Reko Diq, Pakistan Kamoa, D.R. Congo Slide 3 of 34

4. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia Is this the future of copper mining? 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Technical challenges? Environmental problems? Economic questions? Socio-political issue? Grasberg copper-gold mine, Indonesia One of the world’s largest copper and gold mines Slide 4 of 34 Photo: Author

5. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia Getting to the very long term futureCommodityprice/marginalcost Quantity mined Output constraint Capacity constraint Constraint of current reserves But how do you get to here? Based on Maxwell (2013) 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 5 of 34

6. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia Find ‘economic’ & ‘accessible’ resources DISCOVERED ECONOMIC but INACCESSIBLE UNDISCOVERED INACCESSIBLE but ECONOMIC DISCOVERED ACCESSIBLE but UNECONOMIC UNDISCOVERED UNECONOMIC but ACCESSIBLE GEOLOGICAL CERTAINTY ECONOMICFEASIBILITY DISCOVERED ACCESSIBLE RESERVE (DISCOVERED ACCESSIBLE and ECONOMIC RESOURCE) (Behind) DISCOVERED but INACCESSIBLE UNECONOMIC UNDISCOVERED INACCESSIBLE and UNECONOMIC UNDISCOVERED ACCESSIBLE RESERVE (UNDISCOVERED but ACCESSIBLE and ECONOMIC RESOURCE) Sykes & Trench (2014a, 2014b) 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 6 of 34

7. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia Radical change has occurred before 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 ShareofGlobalCuMineproduction United Kingdom Chile USA Other 0.0 2000.0 4000.0 6000.0 8000.0 10000.0 12000.0 14000.0 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 GlobalCuMineProduction(Kt) United Kingdom Chile USA Other Decline of UK mining, rise of Americas Resurrection of Chilean industry Decline of UK mining, rise of Americas Resurrection of Chilean industry Data: Crowson, 2012 …in 1898.. Bingham Canyon… was something of a joke… only barren quartz rock flecked with a trace of copper. Nobody could make money out of so little. …the world’s most famous mining man [Chief Engineer for the Guggenheims] turned up his nose. It was ridiculed by the most respected mining journal of the day. …The shovels started… in June 1906. (Lynch, 2012) 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 7 of 34

8. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia …but change is very complex 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 1775 1800 1825 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Cuoregrade(%) Cornwall (UK) Average UK Average Michigan (USA) Average USA Average Western World Average World Average Change from high grade underground mining in UK to low grade open pits in USA Data estimated from: Crowson, 2012 Further low grade copper mining innovations 20th century copper mining technology, innovation & discovery package Dynamite Steam power The corporation Mechanisation Major public infrastructure Flotation Improved smelting & refining Airborne geophysics Porphyry geological model Better work practices SXEW Computation Low cost drilling Globalisation Sources: Schodde, 2010; Lynch, 2012 & various personal communications to the author 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 8 of 34 Free trade Forward contracts Regime change

9. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia Foxes rather than hedgehogs in this case 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies "The fox knows many things but the hedgehog knows one big thing". - Archilocus / Isaiah Berlin Ilbury & Sunter: The Mind of a Fox: Scenario Planning in Action (2011) Tetlock: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (2006) Slide 9 of 34

10. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia Multiple working hypotheses of the future GEOLOGICAL CERTAINTY ECONOMICFEASIBILITY ACCESSIBLE RESERVE MULTIPLE HYPOTHETICAL RESERVES MULTIPLE HYPOTHETICAL RESERVES MULTIPLE HYPOTHETICAL RESERVES HYPOTHETICA L RESERVE or UNDISCOVERED ACCESSIBLE RESERVE DISCOVERED UNDISCOVERED Sykes & Trench (2014a) 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 10 of 34

11. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia THE METHODOLOGY Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 11 of 34

12. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia The Oxford Scenarios deductive methodology Company Transactional Contextual Strategic landscapes: contextual linkages Drivers from the past and future Key contextual linkages? Clarify and cluster key drivers Explore polar outcomes and select independent pairs Combine axis to develop scenario framework Play with different combinations Deepen scenarios and prepare to engage Based on Ramirez et al., 2014 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 12 of 34

13. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia The copper industry is a complex environment Contextual Environment (‘factors’) Transactional Environment (‘inter-actors’) NGOsCompany Equipment Suppliers Investors Employees Local Regulators Lobbies Competitors Industry Clients Exchange Rates Legislation Macroeconomics International Commerce Geo-political trends International Finance Energy Prices Social Values Technology Environment Demographics Science Water Availability InnovationCommodity Prices Natural Disasters Conflict & Security Climate Consumables Suppliers Utilities Commodity Traders National Regulators International Regulators Financiers “Driving forces” Survey & appreciate Influence & co-design Control Template from: Ramirez et al., 2014 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 13 of 34

14. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia With many evolving trends Chinese Industrialisation Post-War European & Japanese Reconstruction Global Financial Crisis Asian & .com Crises Oil Crises Rise of Modern Environmentalism Rise of Sustainable Development Movement Increasing Focus on ‘Social Licence’ COMMODITY DEMAND 2010s FINANCIAL CRISES SOCIAL TRENDS Resurgence of ‘Strategic Resources’ Concepts LABOUR TRENDS TECHNO TRENDS POLITICAL TRENDS World War II Better Work Practices Cold War (Separation of East & West) Airborne Geophysics 2000s1990s1980s1970s1960s1950s1940s Substantial Globalisation Porphyry Model SXEW Low Costs in Developing World Labour Cost Inflation Computers, Modelling & Scheduling Decline of Unionism Eastern-bloc Privatisation 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 14 of 34

15. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia But there are some commonalities Increased support for mining Decreased support for mining SOCIAL ECONOMIC BOOM BUST TECHNOLOGY Technology drives lower costs Technology lags cost inflation POLITICAL Increasingly restrictive regulation Decrease in restrictive regulation ENVIRONMENT More land becomes available Less land available Broadly similar: increase/decrease in land availability either physically or conceptually Template from: Ramirez et al., 2014 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 15 of 34

16. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia THE SCENARIOS Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 16 of 34

17. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia The Scenarios ECONOMICMARGINS Increased Decreased PROSPECT AVAILABILITY Increased Decreased CRUSADES COUNTING HOUSE PEASANTS’ REVOLT UNDER SEIGE 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 17 of 34

18. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia UNDER SIEGE • Industry struggling with current profitability and with few future options for growth; • Falling commodity prices and falling productivity have reduced economic margins at existing operations; • A breakdown of the global order limits access to foreign projects and talent; • State mining companies, backed by governments concerned about the limited number of operating mines, are the main long term beneficiaries in this scenario; • The ‘declining-sum’ nature of the copper mining industry means that outside industries also benefit, particularly those willing to take over the long-term management of the copper supply chain. • The copper mining industry may feel that it is in the ‘Under Siege’ scenario presently: – Falling copper prices; – Asset write-downs; – Curtailment of capital investments, exploration, and research and development. Defending current operations with few new opportunities available 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 18 of 34

19. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia COUNTING HOUSE • A short term return to profitability, but a lack of long term options; • Resurgent economic growth increases commodity prices, whilst low gas, oil and coal prices reduce operating costs; • However, resource nationalism, environmental and social licence issues, and competition for resources limits the availability of new projects; • The major private mining companies are the main short-term beneficiaries as their already profitable assets further reinforce their advantage; • However, over the long-term industry outsiders begin to encroach; • This arises due to the continued failure to develop new projects, an echo of the recent boom. • The future becomes based on the running down of current assets and the present project pipeline, requiring higher commodity prices to be economic. • This is the conventional view of the future of copper mining, arising from the scientific and economic analyses. Focus on extracting economic rents from current operations 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 19 of 34

20. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia CRUSADES • A profitable mining industry investing in a range of new ideas and projects, able to successfully transition into the future. • A profitable industry benefitting from a temporary period of increased commodity prices and reduced input costs. • Industry able to invest in technologies and innovations increasing abilities to discover and develop less energy and water intensive, targeted mining operations. • At the same time the mining industry participates in a global proliferation of multi-lateral agreements opening up the developing world to major mining investment. • The first movers in technology, innovation, and increasing environmental and social access to projects are the long term beneficiaries in this scenario. • At the beginning of the recent boom in copper prices existing operations were very profitable, and initially there seemed to be many new options for development and exploration, assisted by the latest phase of globalisation. Many exciting opportunities in new areas 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 20 of 34

21. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia PEASANTS’ REVOLT • A struggling mining industry, but one in which there are still many future options available that could provide a route to profitability. • Bulk mining operations fail in the face of lower commodity prices, higher input costs and increased environmental and social costs. • A radical switch to more targeted, less energy intensive mining is required. • As the mining industry struggles, outside industries are able to make significant advances into the industry, particularly by reforming the metals supply chain around a circular economy. • Reminder of the mining industry in the early 1990s, when the industry was enduring a 30 year spell of declining copper prices and increasing environmentalism, sapping long term investment in exploration and technology. • Global uncertainty was increasing as the Soviet Union collapsed, whilst a number of key mining economies were in decline. The mining industry was seen as ‘old industry’ as the high technology and internet industries began to establish themselves. Current plans not working, desperate switch to new ideas required 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 21 of 34

22. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia There are strategic analogies for the scenarios Top left: J.M.W. Turner: Slavers, Throwing Overboard The Dead And Dying (1840); Bottom left: glycemicindex.com “Red Oceans” “Blue Oceans” Mauborgne & Kim, Blue Ocean Strategy: How to Create Uncontested Market Space & Make Competition Irrelevant (2005) “Sustainers” “Disrupters” Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail (1997) 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 22 of 34 vs vs

23. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia THE IMPLICATIONS Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 23 of 34

24. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia Some are better prepared than others Company Type / Scenario Under Siege Counting House Crusades Peasants’ Revolt Major ? √ ? X State √ ? ? ? Junior X X ? ? Outsider √ ? X √ 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 24 of 34

25. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia But there are no ‘one-size fits all’ strategies Company Type / Scenario Under Siege Counting House Crusades Peasants’ Revolt Operating ? √ √ ? Project X X √ ? Open Pit ? √ √ X Underground ? ? ? ? Open Pit & Underground ? √ √ ? Energy Intensive ? √ √ X Water Intensive ? √ √ X Talent Intensive ? √ √ X Weak social licence X X √ ? Domestic owned ? √ ? ? Foreign owned X X √ ? 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 25 of 34

26. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia The future may not look like the past/presentCommodityprice/marginalcost Quantity mined Output constraint Capacity constraint Constraint of current reserves Based on Maxwell (2013) 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 26 of 34

27. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia THE KEY LEARNINGS Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 27 of 34

28. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia Key learnings from the scenarios • The scenarios investigated the links between a complex range of geological, technological, economic, environmental and socio-political factors, in a manner not possible with conventional economic and scientific analytical techniques. • The conventional view of the future of copper mining – one of declining quality resources creating economic, environmental and socio-political problems for miners – was confirmed as a potential future. • However, different views of the future of the industry also arose. • This result suggests that the conventional view of the future of the copper mining industry may not be the one that evolves. • On a theoretical level this means that techniques for analysing the long term future of mineral industries need to consider a wider range of factors, such as technology, the environment and socio-politics. • Practically, minerals explorers therefore need to also incorporate these factors into their exploration targeting methodologies. • Scenarios therefore may be a useful scholarly tool for investigating the future of mineral resource industries; and a useful practical tool for minerals explorers in informing exploration targeting strategies. 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 28 of 34

29. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia Where is the copper industry heading? • The scenarios show the industry is not necessarily linked to the present or past. • The current industry is driven by the optimisation of existing assets; whilst future is driven by the availability of new prospects. • These new prospects may be similar to existing operations, or different. • An industry broadly similar to the present/recent one can be envisioned, but it is a zero-sum or declining-sum game, reinforcing the advantage of incumbent miners. Resource nationalism becomes prevalent in both these scenarios. • Conversely if the future is significantly different to the present mining industry, then the mining industry may be vulnerable to disruptive innovation from either smaller companies or outside industries. • The mining industry does not have to control the metal ‘raw materials’ industry. Recycling and scrap production is growing, alongside the concept of the circular economy. • Other industries, such as oil, high technology or logistics may be better positioned to supply metals such as copper in the future, if radical technological change takes place. • To a certain extent the junior exploration industry acts as a barrier to entry against potentially disruptive outsider firms. 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 29 of 34

30. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia Can the copper industry change direction? • Overall the general lack of flexibility and limited strategic options of the current major group of mines and projects in the copper industry suggests that a greater focus on the long term is required. • To avoid a zero- or declining-sum game, the industry has to invest in the long term, either as exploration, research & development, or increasing ‘accessibility’ via a stronger social licence to operate. • However, there is currently no strategic approach that is ‘future-proof’, so some strategic choices will have to be made, and potentially some strategic hedges (so called ‘real options’) placed (for companies with enough funds). • Key points of decision will include whether to pursue: – energy intensive or light operations; – open pit or underground operations; – water intensive or light operations; – social footprint light or intensive operations; – domestic-owned or foreign-owned projects; – mature or immature mineral districts; – developed or developing world locations; – mining or integrated value chain focus; – operating or future asset focus; – exploration or engineering focused skill sets. 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 30 of 34

31. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia Further research Scenarios need to be collaborative & iterative: • Move into ‘group’ events to bring in broader range of expertise and improve quality; • Repeated events, drawing in new information and perspectives, and keeping up with the world; • Act as a kind of peer-review process; • Introduce more people into the conversation and helps integrate outcomes into industry thinking. Future scenarios events and publications are therefore required: • Individual scenario planning trial (Curtin HDR Seminar): Sept 2015; • CET PhD students group scenario planning trial: Nov-Dec 2015; • Perth PhD students group scenario planning trial: Feb-Mar 2016; • Expert group scenario planning trial: Jun-Jul 2016. 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 31 of 34

32. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia References Main Reference: • Sykes, J.P. (2015) Using the Oxford Scenarios deductive methodology to understand the long-term future of copper mining and guide minerals exploration targeting strategies, Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Students’ Colloquium Other References: • Christensen, C., (2012) The Innovator’s Dilemma – When New Technologies Cause Great Firms To Fail, Boston: Harvard Business Review Press. • Kim, W.C., & Mauborgne, R., (2005) Blue Ocean Strategy – How to Create Uncontested Market Space and Make the Competition Irrelevant, Boston: Harvard Business Press. • Lynch, M., (2012) Mining in World History, London: Reaktion Books. • Maxwell, P., (2013) Chapter 6 – Mineral Supply – Exploration, Production, Processing and Recycling. In Monograph 29: Mineral Economics – Australian and Global Perspectives, edited by Maxwell, P., & Guj, P., 67-78. Carlton, Victoria: The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy. • Ramirez, R, Khong, C & Selin, C. (2014) Oxford Scenarios Programme. 28 April-1 May, Oxford: Said Business School (University of Oxford). PDF lecture notes. • Schodde, R, (2010) The key drivers behind resource growth: an analysis of the copper industry over the last 100 years. 3 March, Phoenix, USA: MEMS Conference – Mineral and Metal Markets over the Long Term. • Sunter, C., & Ilbury, C., (2011) The Mind of a Fox – Scenario Planning in Action, Cape Town: Human & Rousseau. • Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A. (2014a) Chapter 14 – Finding the Copper Mine of the 21st Century: Conceptual Exploration Targeting for Hypothetical Copper Reserves. In Special Publication Number 18: Building Exploration Capability for the 21st Century, edited by Kelley, K.D., & Golden, H.C., 273- 300. Boulder: Society of Economic Geologists. • Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A. (2014b) Resources versus Reserves – Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist. In Mining Geology through the Value Chain: Proceedings of the Ninth International Mining Geology Conference held in Adelaide, South Australia, 18-20 August 2014, 243-270. Carlton, Victoria: Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (AusIMM) and Australian Institute of Geoscientists (AIG). • Tetlock, P.E., (2006) Expert Political Judgment – How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton: Princeton University Press. 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 32 of 34

33. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, AustraliaCurtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia Thank You Contact: johnpaul.sykes@postgrad.curtin.edu.au Acknowledgements: PhD Committee: Daniel Packey, Allan Trench & Bryan Maybee Funding: Centre for Exploration Targeting (Curtin University & University of Western Australia) Colleagues: Department for Mineral & Energy Economics (Curtin University) and Centre for Exploration Targeting (Curtin University & University of Western Australia) 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 33 of 34

34. Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia Biography John Sykes is undertaking a PhD in Mineral Economics, within the Department of Mineral & Energy Economics at Curtin Graduate School of Business, and the Centre for Exploration Targeting, a joint venture between Curtin University and the University of Western Australia. The PhD research is entitled “Finding the copper mine of the future: Exploration targeting for copper mines, not copper resources.” Before moving to Australia to undertake this PhD, John ran his own mineral economics consultancy, Greenfields Research in London. He started his career as a consultant in copper mining and smelting at CRU Group, and briefly as a gold exploration geologist in the Brazilian Amazon. John has a Master of Science with Honours in Geology from the Royal School of Mines, Imperial College London, and a Masters of Science in Geophysical Hazards from University College London. He is a Fellow of the Geological Society of London; Chartered Scientist; Member of the Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining; Member of Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy; a student member of the Society of Economic Geologists; and the International Vice President of the Royal School of Mines Association. 31 August 2015 Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies Slide 34 of 34 John visiting OZ Minerals’ Prominent Hill copper mine in South Australia, 2014.

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