1. Systemic
Thinking
RESOURCES vs RESERVES:
Towards a Systems-based
understanding of Exploration and
Mine Project Development and
the Role of the Mining Geologist
John P. Sykes MAusIMM
PhD Candidate / Adjunct Research Fellow
Centre for Exploration Targeting
Curtin University / The University of Western Australia
Email: johnpaul.sykes@postgrad.curtin.edu.au
Allan Trench FAusIMM
Professor, Progressive Risk & Value
Centre for Exploration Targeting
Curtin University / The University of Western Australia
Email: allan.trench@curtin.edu.au
AusIMM 9th International Mining Geology Conference, 18-20th August 2014, Adelaide, Australia

2. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
The problem: Breaking the exploration-
mining feedback loop
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
What are
you looking
for?
What do you
want me to
find?
?
MINE
BUSH
?
Slide 2 of 23

3. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
Linking exploration & development
• McCuaig et al. 2000 concerned about communication of geology to
other professions during project development:
– Encouraged use of ‘risk’ as a language
– Geologists need to be better communicators & have wider knowledge
• Now concerned about the flow of information in the opposite way
from mining to geology/exploration to aid targeting:
– Recommendations however remain the same
– But hopefully also some additional, new ideas
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, AustraliaSlide 3 of 23

4. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
Exploration will have to consider
economics from the beginning
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
Based on: CRIRSCO (2013); Sykes & Trench 2014
RESOURCES
RESERVES
GEOLOGICAL CERTAINTY
ECONOOMIC
FEASIBILITY
‘McKelvey” Reserve Box Theoretical Reserve Box
RESOURCES
GEOLOGICAL CERTAINTY
ECONOOMIC
FEASIBILITY
RESERVESRESERVES
Slide 4 of 23

5. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
What does economic mean nowadays?
Technical vs Political Risk?
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Weda Bay,
Indonesia
Dumont,
Canada
(QC)
Kalgoorlie
(Heron),
Australia
(WA)
Zebediela,
South
Africa
Jacaré,
Brazil
Gag Island,
Indonesia
Mount
Margaret,
Australia
(WA)
Maturi,
USA (MN)
Turnagain,
Canada
(BC)
Sulawesi,
Indonesia
NickelGrade(%)
ContainedNickel(Mt)
Size, Grade & Political Risk for Top 10 Largest Nickel Projects
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Data: Schodde; Fraser Institute
Slide 5 of 23

6. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
Increasing environmental & social
problems at mine projects
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
2003
55
190
245
Active (Advancing)
Stalled due to socio-political & environmental reasons
Stalled due to "lack of progress" or economic reasons
Data: Schodde; Fraser Institute
“…the primary
factors that govern
whether a given
project is developed
will be social,
economic, and
environmental in
nature.”
- Mudd, Weng & Jowitt, 2013
Slide 6 of 23

7. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
System dynamics: economies of
scale vs environmental footprint
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
Greater Project
Risk
Needs Increased
Scale to be
Economic
Increasing Social
& Environmental
Footprint
A large, low grade
deposit in a
developing country
without an
established mining
culture…
Trench et al. 2014
Slide 7 of 23

8. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
Actually… Quantity vs Quality
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Pebble,
USA (AK)
Resolution,
USA (AZ)
Udokan,
Russia
Oyu Tolgoi,
Mongolia
Kamoa,
D.R. Congo
Cobre
Panamá
La Granja,
Peru
Los
Sulfatos,
Chile
El Pachon,
Argentina
Tampakan,
Philippines
CopperGrade(%)
ContainedCopper(Mt)
Size, Grade & Political Risk for Top 10 Largest Copper Projects
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Slide 8 of 23

9. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
But we’ve always known this!
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
“Now a miner, before he begins to
mine the veins must consider seven
things, namely:- the situation, the
conditions, the water, the roads,
the climate, the right of
ownership and the neighbours.”
- Agricola, 1556
Image: Wikipedia
Slide 9 of 23

10. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
What’s different nowadays?
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
“Development that
meets the needs of the
present without
compromising the
ability of future
generations to meet
their own needs.”
- Brundtland Commission, 1987
“Social”
“Equitable”
“Viable”
Sustainable
“Bearable”
Based on: Elkington (1999); Eggert (2013)
Slide 10 of 23

11. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
Moving from hierarchies to systems
in mining incorporating accessibility
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
Source: CRIRSCO (2013); Sykes & Trench (2014)
RESOURCES
RESERVES
GEOLOGICAL CERTAINTY
ECONOOMIC
FEASIBILITY
GEOLOGICAL CERTAINTY
ECONOOMICFEASIBILITY
RESERVES
RESOURCES
Slide 11 of 23

12. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
UNDISCOVERED
UNECONOMIC but
ACCESSIBLE
RESOURCES
DISCOVERED ECONOMIC
but INACCESSIBLE
UNDISCOVERED
INACCESSIBLE but
ECONOMIC
DISCOVERED
ACCESSIBLE but
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
UNECONOMIC but
ACCESSIBLE
GEOLOGICAL CERTAINTY
ECONOMICFEASIBILITY
DISCOVERED
ACCESSIBLE
and ECONOMIC
(Behind)
DISCOVERED but
INACCESSIBLE
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
INACCESSIBLE
and
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
but ACCESSIBLE
ECONOMIC
Mineral exploration needs to focus on
undiscovered, accessible reserves
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
Source: Sykes & Trench (2014)
Slide 12 of 23

13. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
But, how do we measure accessibility?
1. Establish which non-technical factors
influence mine projects
2. Count the frequency with which these
non-technical factors affect mine projects
3. Calculate how these non-technical
factors constrain the economic evaluation
model inputs
4. Use ‘system dynamics’ to determine
how the ‘factors’ link together
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
“Nobody made a greater
mistake than he who did
nothing because he could only do
a little.”
- Sydney Smith, 1849
“It is better to be vaguely
right, than exactly wrong.”
- Carveth Read, 1898
Slide 13 of 23

14. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
A truly systemic approach will
require a understanding of the future
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
Source: Schodde (2014)
What will
copper mines
look like in
2030-50?
Slide 14 of 23

15. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
Paradigmatic change is rapid and
complex
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
Data estimated
from: Crowson,
2012
20th century copper
mining technology,
innovation &
discovery package
Dynamite
Steam power
The corporation
Mechanisation
Major public
infrastructure
Flotation
Improved
smelting &
refining
Airborne
geophysics
Porphyry
geological
model
Better work
practices
SXEW
Computation
Low cost
drilling
Globalisation
Sources: Schodde, 2010;
Lynch, 2002 & various
personal communications
to the author
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
ShareofGlobalCuMineproduction
United Kingdom Chile USA Other
…in 1898.. Bingham Canyon… was something of a joke… only barren quartz rock flecked with a trace of copper. Nobody could
make money out of so little. …the world’s most famous mining man [Chief Engineer for the Guggenheims] turned up his nose. It
was ridiculed by the most respected mining journal of the day. …The shovels started… in June 1906. (Lynch, 2002)
Slide 15 of 23

16. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
In a multi-disciplinary environment
communication is critical
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
Exploration
Geologist
Mining
Geologist
Language of
“geology”
Mining
Engineer
Metallurgist
Management
Non-technical
Professionals
Language of “mining”
(optimisation focused
risk & value)
Language of “exploration”
(probability focused risk &
value)
Information flows considered in this paper
Information flows considered by McCuaig et al. (2000), Stephenson & Vann (1998) and Stephenson (1990)
Information flows not considered by any of these papers
Slide 16 of 23

17. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
Knowledge empathy is critical for
effective communication
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
Focused
Knowledge
Inter-disciplinary
Knowledge
Broad
Knowledge
Systemic
Thinking
1. A lack of interest in, or knowledge of the full
mining process by geologists.
2. As a result of this, geologists generally do not
focus their inputs towards… issues critical for
other members of the mining team.
3. [Thus] Few geologists effectively communicate
their results… The results are that the…
appropriate status of geology in the mining
industry, [is] not fully realised.
- McCuaig et al., 2000
Slide 17 of 23

18. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
Mining geologists will have to become
broad & interconnected thinkers
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
Focused Knowledge: discussions within the
profession that build a deeper understanding
of the subject.
Inter-disciplinary Knowledge: discussions
between different relevant professions within
an organisation or project.
Broad Knowledge: knowledge of and
discussions with different industries and other
academic disciplines, which may help your
own profession. i.e. petroleum industry,
pharmaceutical industry, organisational
theory, sustainable development, space
exploration.
Systemic Knowledge: various thinking
techniques that help connect the other types
of knowledge (‘focused’, ‘inter-disciplinary’
and ‘broad’) together. i.e. soft & hard systems
theory, scenario planning, lateral thinking &
problemitisation.
NB: there is more knowledge outside of a field, than there is within it.
Slide 18 of 23

19. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
However such ‘motherhood’ ideas
are difficult to implement in reality
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, AustraliaSlide 19 of 23

20. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
Changes may be required to personal
development for mining geologists
• How do mining geologists gain inter-disciplinary, broad & systemic knowledge?
– In-house training programmes for the majors
– Can the AusIMM help everyone else?
• Well positioned for inter-disciplinary knowledge development
– Rotations through different teams at the majors
– Two streams (Advanced & Inter-disciplinary) on conference courses & fieldtrips
– Co-authoring of papers between multiple disciplines
– Inter-disciplinary themes at conferences or inter-disciplinary conferences
• How do we develop broad and systemic knowledge?
– Again, in-house training programmes for the majors
– Joint conferences and fieldtrips – petroleum, sustainability, ecology, arts, NASA?
– Specific broad acknowledge acquisition unit/event?
• Needs to align with KPI’s, funding & CP program
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, AustraliaSlide 20 of 23

21. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
Conclusions
• Effective exploration requires mining professionals to communicate the
parameters of an economic mine back to exploration professionals
– A common language is therefore required for mining professionals – economic risk
and value is suggested
– Mining geologists will be a critical link between mining and exploration
• The parameters of an economic or ‘world class’ mine however appear to have
changed by sustainable development
– Mining geologists will therefore have to be conversant in a wide range of disciplines
(including many ‘unrelated’ to mining to help break paradigmatic thinking)
• Such ‘motherhood’ solutions are frequently suggested at conferences.
Implementation of them is another matter.
– The industry will have to help mining geologists both acquire and use such knowledge
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, AustraliaSlide 21 of 23

22. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
Thank you
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, Australia
Systemic
Thinking
Slide 22 of 23

23. Resources vs Reserves: Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development and the Role of the Mining Geologist
Further reading
• Sykes, J.P. 2014. Finding the copper mine of tomorrow: Exploration targeting for copper reserves, not
resources. AusIMM New Leaders Conference. Perth, Australia. August. [ABSTRACT]
• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2014. Resources versus Reserves: Towards a systems-based
understanding of exploration and mine project development and the role of the mining geologist.
AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference. Adelaide, Australia. August.
• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2014. Finding the copper mine of the 21st century: Conceptual exploration
targeting for hypothetical reserves. Society of Economic Geologists Conference. Colorado, USA.
October.
• Trench, A., Packey, D., & Sykes, J.P., 2014. Non-technical risks and their impact on mining. AusIMM
Monograph 30 on Mineral Resource & Ore Reserve Estimation. Chapter 7: Risk in Resource and
Reserve Estimation.
19 August 2014AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology Conference, Adelaide, AustraliaSlide 23 of 23