1. Myanmar: The Black Swan of
Global Tin?
Dr Nicholas J Gardiner1 & John P Sykes2,3,4
1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
2Director, Greenfields Research, UK
3Department of Mineral & Energy Economics, Curtin University, Australia
4Centre for Exploration Targeting, University of Western Australia
Collaborators:
Cui Lin, ITRI, China
Allan Trench, Department of Mineral & Energy Economics, Curtin University and Centre for Exploration
Targeting, University of Western Australia

2. What is a Black Swan?

3. An unpredictable,
rare, but nevertheless
high impact event
“a rare bird in the
lands, and very much
like a black swan”
Juvenal, 1st Cent AD

4. Improbable but high impact
-1000%
0%
1000%
2000%
3000%
4000%
5000%
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Global Tin Production 2014 (t) and % Change from 2009
Source: Kettle et al., 2014, 2015 (ITRI)

5. How does Myanmar fit into the global
tin industry?

6. Tin prices are at 30-year highs
Long term tin price history
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2014 Inflation Adjusted Tin Price (US$/t)
Long term tin price histogram
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 to 5 5 to 10 10 to
15
15 to
20
20 to
25
25 to
30
30 to
35
35 to
40
Price range, $000/tonne, 2010 real terms
Prices at 30 year highs
Number of years in each price band
Recent prices
mainly is this
range
Source: DiFrancesco et al., 2014 (USGS), Crawford et al., 2014 (USBOL), Kettle et al., 2015 (ITRI)

7. Initially due to electronics…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Lead-free solder Lead solder
24th July 2014 The Case for Tin Exploration Slide 7 of 18
Lead-free solder as a % of global shipments
Conversion to tin
solder drove tin
prices
Source: ITRI

8. …and Chinese demand
Tinplate: 54,500t (16%)
Chemicals: 54,200t (16%)
Brass/Bronze: 18,600t
(5%)
Glass: 7,000t (2%)
Others: 37,500t (11%)
China: 102,900t
(30% of tin & 58%
of solder)
ROW: 73,600t (21%
of tin & 42% of
solder)
Solder: 176,500t
(51%)
Tin Consumption (2013e)
24th July 2014 The Case for Tin Exploration Slide 8 of 18
Source: Kettle et al., 2014 (ITRI)

9. But weak supply now the driver
250.0
275.0
300.0
325.0
350.0
375.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Tin Supply-Demand Growth (Kt)
Refined Supply Mine Supply Refined Demand
24th July 2014 The Case for Tin Exploration Slide 9 of 18
Demand strength
driving prices
Mine supply weakness
driving prices
Source: Kettle et al., 2014 (ITRI)

10. Current supply faces many problems
© Greenfields Research & ITRI;
Images: Greenfields Research &
Shutterstock
Informal mining
Ageing mines
Conflict
Minerals
High political risk
24th July 2014 The Case for Tin Exploration Slide 10 of 18

11. With few advanced tin projects
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Early exploration
Advanced exploration
Scoping
Pre-feasibility
Feasibility
Permitting
Financing
Construction
Commissioning
No. Projects
Tin projects at different stages
24th July 2014 The Case for Tin Exploration Slide 11 of 18
Source: Sykes et al., 2014 (Greenfields Research & ITRI)

12. Myanmar and the future of tin
• Tin prices are at their highest levels since the 1980s.
– Tin has become a China-focused ‘electronic metal’ helping drive
consumption.
– Tin mine supply is struggling to keep up with demand growth.
• Tin is suffering from underinvestment in mine project
development and exploration.
• Myanmar has previously been highlighted as a source of
uncertainty.
– Myanmar has since been confirmed as a disruptive force.
– Myanmar could now provide both the needed short term and
long term tin mine supply growth
24th July 2014 The Case for Tin Exploration Slide 12 of 18

13. Myanmar (Burma)

14. Myanmar
• 2nd largest SE Asian
country by area
– Pop 52M (est)
• Significant economic
decline over past 60 years
– 1940: 2nd wealthiest
country in SE Asia
– 2012: now the poorest
• Huge potential
– Geographically strategic
– Natural resources

15. www.dbam.com
Shan Plateau:
Lead,
Zinc,
and
Silver
Orogenic
Gold
World-
class
Rubies,
skarn-type
gold
Jade
Belt
Magmatic
Arc: Copper
& Gold
porphyry
Slate Belt:
Tin
Tungsten
granites

16. Myanmar – opening up?
• 2008 – new constitution
• 2011 – start of reforms…
– EU, North American &
Canadian sanctions
temporarily lifted 2012
• Elections late 2015
– But democracy still a work in
progress

17. Hall, 2012
Geological Background

18. CORNWALL
NIGERIA
GERMANY
THAILAND +
MYANMAR
USSR (FAR EAST)
SOUTH CHINA
QUEENSLAND
TASMANIA
MALAYSIA
INDONESIA
CONGO
SOUTH AFRICA
BRAZIL
BOLIVIA/PERU
SPAIN/
PORTUGAL
Lehmann, 1990
95% of historic Sn prod from 3 main jurisdictions;
of which Southeast Asia responsible for half
Tin Mineralization

19. Tin Mineralization
• Related to emplacement of
peraluminous “S-type”
granites
• Sn, W, U, Li, In, Ta-Nb, REE’s
are all co-genetic
• Principally found as quartz-
vein or pegmatite-hosted
cassiterite (SnO2)
– resilient hence placer deposits

20. Fluid
exsolution

21. SE Asia
Tectonics:
Collage of
micro tectonic
plates that
converged over
ca. 100Ma

22. Metcalfe, 2011
260Ma
210Ma
Myanmar
Closure of
Palaeo-
Tethys ca.
220Ma

23. Metcalfe, 2011
Myanmar
Closure of Neo-
Tethys ca. 50Ma
India collides
with Asia
Neo-
Tethys

24. Gardiner et al., 2015
LATE PERMIAN 260 MA
LATE TRIASSIC- EARLY JURASSIC 230-200 MA
LATE CRETACEOUS 70 MA
Palaeo-Tethys
Palaeo-Tethys Sediments
Neo-Tethys
SUKHOTHAI
ARC
Sibumasu
Sibumasu
India
Indochina
Indochina
Indochina
Nan Suture
Chiang Rai Line
PALAEO-TETHYS SUTURE
SUKHOTHAI
ARC
MAIN
RANGE
PROVINCE
MAIN
RANGE
PROVINCE
Shelf Carbonates
Nan Suture
Chiang Rai Line
PALAEO-TETHYS SUTURE
Back-arc
collapse
I-Type S-Type
WUNTHO-
POPA
ARC
MMM
BELT
S-Type
SUKHOTHAI
ARC

25. Tin granite belts
of SE AsiaRanongFault
SagaingFault
Three
Pagodas
Fault
MaeYuamFault
KhlongMaruiFault
M
ae
Ping
Fault
NOTNEBG-ERUTUSBUAR
CHIANGRAILINE
LANCANGJIANG
ZONE
GRANITE PROVINCES
Eastern (I-type)
Main Range (S-type)
Northern Thailand
Migmatitic Complex
Mogok-Mandalay-Mergui Belt
Wuntho-Popa Arc
(S-type)
400 km
National boundary
Approximate limits of the
main granite provinces
12°
4°
110°106°102°98°
PENINSULAR
MALAYSIA
CAMBODIA
THAILAND
LAOS
VIETNAM
CHINA
MYANMAR
(BURMA)
Bangkok
Mogok
Yangon
DI
CM SukhothaiArc
SUMATRA
TIN ISLANDS
BORNEO
Kuala
Lumpur
Phuket
Singapore
Tioman
Island
Myeik
NANSUTURE
• Magmatic
expressions of the
Mesozoic-Cenozoic
tectonic history

26. Primary tin
deposits are
directly related
to these granite
belts
Gardiner et al., 2014
RanongFault
SagaingFault
Three
Pagodas
Fault
MaeYuamFault
KhlongMaruiFault
M
ae
Ping
Fault
NOTNEBG-ERUTUSBUAR
CHIANGRAILINE
LANCANGJIANG
ZONE
GRANITE PROVINCES
Eastern (I-type)
Main Range (S-type)
Northern Thailand
Migmatitic Complex
Mogok-Mandalay-Mergui Belt
Wuntho-Popa Arc
(S-type)
12°
4°
PENINSULAR
MALAYSIA
CAMBODIA
THAILAND
LAOS
VIETNAM
CHINA
MYANMAR
(BURMA)
Bangkok
Mogok
Yangon
DI
CM
SukhothaiArc
Kuala
Lumpur
Phuket
Tioman
Island
Myeik
NANSUTURE

27. The Myanmar tin industry

28. Tin mining: potted history
• 14th C: artisanal mining (Burmese/Chinese)
• 19th Century: The Europeans
– 1839: JW Helfer discovered tin near Tavoy
– 1862: Mawchi Mine discovered by O’Riley
– 1888-1892: Indian Geological Survey
– Early 20th C: major mine development
• 1942-44: Japanese occupation
• 1946: Burmese Independence
– 1962: All mines nationalized; start of decline

29. Mawchi
Dawei area
Tin Mining in Myanmar
• Main areas historically in the south,
around Dawei (Tavoy) and Myeik
(Mergui)
• Important areas of mixed deposits,
primary and alluvial deposits
– Unlike rest of SE Asia still relatively
untapped
– Placer-type deposits ideal for
small-scale artisanal mining
• Tin-tungsten mixed concentrates
– Problem for artisanal producers

30. Dawei (Tavoy)
• Historic tin mining
district
• Over 50 major
primary and placer
mines
– Hermyingyi
– Heinda
– Pagaye

32. Myanmar - The Black Swan?
• In 2014 Myanma emerged to become World’s
3rd biggest tin producer
• But…most of this production increase is from
the Man Maw mining district, Wa State
– not the traditional tin producing areas

33. Wa State
• Autonomous,
unrecognized state
– Outside the control of
Nay Pyi Daw
• Pop ca. 560k
• Ethnically Chinese
• Run by UWSA

34. Man Maw Mine Site, Wa State
• 90km from Pangkham
• 100km2 mine site, multiple
producers
• Exclusively primary deposit
– Annual prod 20,000t
– 1-2% grade open pit, higher
underground
• Sell crushed ore (10% Sn) and
partially refined conc (20% Sn)
direct to China

35. Man Maw mine site

36. Road conditions
are extremely bad

37. Man Maw – future unclear
• No geological data
– Reserves unknown
– Mine lifetimes unknown
• Infrastructure poor
– Bad roads!
– Some new investment, e.g. new power station
• Security issues on the border

38. So – can this benefit Myanmar?

39. Myanmar – the future
• In 2013 mining represented ca. 0.1% GDP
– This represents a hugely underdeveloped industry
– Value of 2014 tin production: 30,000t x $20,000 is
only $600 million (in a $53 Billion GDP economy)
• New mining law?
• 2015 Elections
• Transparency (EITI candidate country)
• Environmental issues

41. Myanmar: summary
• Surprise emergence as 3rd biggest tin producer
– Majority of new production outside traditional tin-
producing area
• Still a high-risk jurisdiction
– Political uncertainty
– 2015 Elections & Mining Law
• But huge untapped minerals reserves remain
– “Traditional” tin producing area retains great potential
– Mining could significantly help Myanmar’s economic
redevelopment

42. For more information:
• ITRI Ltd: www.itri.co.uk
• Greenfields Research: www.greenfieldsresearch.com
• Centre for Exploration Targeting: www.cet.edu.au
• Nick Gardiner: http://www.earth.ox.ac.uk/people/profiles/research/nickg
Contact details:
• Nicholas J. Gardiner: nick.gardiner@earth.ox.ac.uk
• John P. Sykes: john.sykes@greenfieldsresearch.com
Thank you

43. • Collier, P, (2010), The Plundered Planet: How to Reconcile Prosperity with Nature,
Penguin Group: London
• Crawford, M., Church, J., & Akin, B., (Feb. 2015), CPI Detailed Report, USBLS.
• DiFrancesco, C.A., Carlin, Jr., J.F., & Tolcin, A.C., (1 Apr. 2014), Tin Statistics, USGS.
• Gardiner, N.J., Robb, L.J., Searle, M.P. 2014. Applied Earth Science.
• Gardiner, N.J., Searle, M.P., Robb, L.J., Morley, C.K. 2015. Journal Asian Earth
Sciences
• Kettle, P., Lin, C., Tianhua, R., Mulqueen, T., & Davidson, V., (Feb. 2015), Tin
Monitor, CRU & ITRI.
• Kettle, P., Pearce, J., Lin, C., & Sykes, J.P., (2014). Tin Industry Review, ITRI
• Sykes, J.P., (2013). Structural changes in mine supply: Case studies in tin and
tantalum, Metal Pages Electronic & Specialty Metals (Shanghai, China), 11
September.
• Sykes, J.P., Kettle, P., Staffurth, N., & Davies, R.S., (2014). New Tin Supply,
Greenfields Research & ITRI
• Other data referenced as ‘ITRI’ provided on an ad hoc basis.
References
Dawei Beach, Tanintharyi Region