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Jancovici : Presentation of the conference "Can we save energy, jobs and growth at the same time ?"

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08/01/2018
Video : https://youtu.be/wGt4XwBbCvA

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Jancovici : Presentation of the conference "Can we save energy, jobs and growth at the same time ?"

  1. 1. jancovici.com Can we save energy, employment and growth at the same time? Jean-Marc Jancovici jmj@manicore.com jean-marc.jancovici@carbone4.com jean-marc.jancovici@theshiftproject.org Ecole Normale Supérieure January 8, 2018
  2. 2. www.jancovici.com If we listen to the UN, we can do that and much more: Alice in Wonderland ☺ Economists ☺ Doctors ☺ Feminists ☺ Industry ☺ Consumers ☺ Teachers ☺ Mayors ☺ Ecologists ☺ “Circularists” ☺ Pacifists ☺ Drinkers
  3. 3. www.jancovici.com One (and only one) question Are all this goals compatible?
  4. 4. www.jancovici.com According to you, what is energy? My electricity or gas bill
  5. 5. www.jancovici.com Fraction of the world revenues devoted to energy purchases. Author’s calculations, on data from BP Statistical Review & World Bank, 2017 If energy is mainly a bill, it’s not a huge one
  6. 6. www.jancovici.com It’s only 5%! = 5% = 2% = 5%
  7. 7. www.jancovici.com According to you, what is energy? My electricity or gas bill The answer C Something to be saved! (why can be unclear) Something I’m full of when I really feel great
  8. 8. www.jancovici.com Because of the law of conservation, “using energy” is actually extracting energy from the environment and using it to put a converter into action. To use “something else” (oil, gas, waterfalls, uranium, wind…) we need another converter which is called “a machine”. The only energy that our body can use and convert, is food, that is a particular type of chemical energy “using energy”, an incorrect expression for a major process W “Using more and more energy” is therefore “commanding more and more machinery”
  9. 9. www.jancovici.com 1 L ≈ 0,5 kWh 80 kg + 10 kg up 2000 m 0,05 kWh per day (10 kWh/year) 6 m3 earth lifted up 1 m x 10 10 kWh 2-4 kWh mechanical output x 100 @ 1000 €/month: 200 €/kWh 1,5 €/L : 0,4 €/kWh 2000 €/kWh ÷ 500 ÷ 5000 1 day out of 2: 100 kWh/year Even a slave: 4-40 €/kWh ÷ 10-100 Nietzsche wanted supermen, oil did the job
  10. 10. www.jancovici.com At the very beginning we had carbon Carbon! Once dead, falls partially on the ocean floor Where it gets mixed with mineral sediment The mixture is buried by tectonics And cooked by geothermal energy And, miracle… (after 15 to 800 million years, and for 0,0000000001% of initial biomass) FREE!
  11. 11. www.jancovici.com = 10 m 10m 80 km/h 3 millilitres ! 6-8 cents per kWh without security of supply, 25 to 50 with 0,3 cents per kWh (0,3 cents per kWh (with security of supply Renewables -> fossil : price ÷ 50-100 Why on Earth did we waive magic renewables to use devilish oil?
  12. 12. www.jancovici.com “Energy consumption” per capita, world average, 1860-2016. Jancovici, 2017 Yummy kWh 66% = machines that produce electricity 50% = machines that move around people and things What gets journalists excited (and thus politicians) 20.000 kWh per capita and per year ≈ 200 “energy slaves” per capita Carbone!
  13. 13. www.jancovici.com 2 centuries ago, he won the fight of physics vs economics Natural resources cannot be exhausted, otherwise, we couldn’t get them for free. As we can neither multiply them, nor deplete them, there are out of the scope of economic sciences. Jean-Baptiste Say, Traité d’économie politique (1803)
  14. 14. www.jancovici.com Our economy seen by Super Mario Productive system
  15. 15. www.jancovici.com With the previous “flow chart”, the GDP is endogenous in regard of capital and work, but exogenous in regard of energy And then… In this system, there is no limit to more people and capital, thus a forever growing GDP, and thus a forever growing energy supply The economist therefore thinks as follows: more capital and work is enough to trigger more GDP that triggers more energy consumed (the IPCC emission scenarios are done this way, by the way)
  16. 16. www.jancovici.com But trusting (then) the engineer would have saved us time Charles DUPIN (X 1801) FORCES PRODUCTIVES ET COMMERCIALES DE LA FRANCE BACHELIER - PARIS 1827 [with draft animals], man has found a way to multiply by 5 the power put into agricultural works. Living agricultural forces of France Human beings Horses Cows and Oxen Donkeys equivalent to full time male workers Water mills Wind mills Sailing boats Steam machines workers workers TOTAL
  17. 17. www.jancovici.com Actually, you'd better have some resource! Productive system = 200 Work += 1 Capital
  18. 18. www.jancovici.com 1965 2016 Energy consumption vs. GDP in constant $, 1965 to 2016. Source World Bank 2017 for the GDP, BP Statistical Review 2017 for energy The best macroeconomic model in the world: a straight line Energy consumption = number of machines!
  19. 19. www.jancovici.com 1921 1973 1986 2001 2015 Constant $ per barrel (vertical axis) vs. oil consumption in the world (horizontal). Jancovici, 2016, on data from BP Statistical Review Is the price of oil elastic?
  20. 20. www.jancovici.com 60 kW ≈ 600 pairs of legs 100 kW ≈ 10.000 pairs of arms! 1 steel mill @ 100 MW ≈ 10.000.000 pairs of arms! 100 MW ≈ 1.000.000 pairs of legs 400 kW ≈ 4.000 pairs of legs Production: men with the help of machines, or machines with the help of men? 10 MW ≈ 100.000 pairs of legs
  21. 21. www.jancovici.com Less energy means more jobs, then? + + = 600 if -> then -> + 300 ? It would be the case if 300 = But today it means and and half GDPthus
  22. 22. www.jancovici.com First, energy availability decreases… Energy availability in Spain since 1965. Data from BP Statistical Review, 2017
  23. 23. www.jancovici.com … then jobs Jobs to population ratio in Spain since 1965. Data from world bank, 2018
  24. 24. www.jancovici.com 1965 2016 Energy consumption vs. GDP in constant $, 1965 to 2016. Source World Bank 2017 for the GDP, BP Statistical Review 2017 for energy …and GDP Energy consumption = number of machines! 2007
  25. 25. www.jancovici.com First, energy availability decreases… Energy availability in Greece since 1965. Data from BP Statistical Review, 2017
  26. 26. www.jancovici.com … then jobs Jobs to population ratio in Greece since 1965. Data from world bank, 2018
  27. 27. www.jancovici.com 1965 2016 Energy consumption vs. GDP in constant $, 1965 to 2016. Source World Bank 2017 for the GDP, BP Statistical Review 2017 for energy No energy, no GDP 2007
  28. 28. www.jancovici.com First, energy availability decreases… Energy availability in Portugal since 1965. Data from BP Statistical Review, 2017
  29. 29. www.jancovici.com … then jobs Jobs to population ratio in Portugal since 1965. Data from world bank, 2018
  30. 30. www.jancovici.com 1965 2016 Energy consumption vs. GDP in constant $, 1965 to 2016. Source World Bank 2017 for the GDP, BP Statistical Review 2017 for energy No energy, no GDP
  31. 31. www.jancovici.com No energy security in oil Oil availability in the EU since 1965. Data from BP Statistical Review, 2016 -16%
  32. 32. www.jancovici.com Gas availability of an « enlarged Europe » (EU+Norway). Data from BP Statistical Review 2016 No energy security in gas ≈ 55% -14% Shale gas potential 20/30 years
  33. 33. www.jancovici.com Coal production and consumption in Europe. Data from BP Statistical Review, 2016 -67% No energy security in coal
  34. 34. www.jancovici.com Energy security? What security? Energy availability in the EU since 1965. Data BP Statistical Review, 2017 Energy security threatened by world geology and CO2 Energy security threatened by regional geology Energy security threatened by regional geology and CO2 Energy security threatened by fear Energy security threatened by capital requirements
  35. 35. www.jancovici.com EU 28 construction index since 2000. Data from Eurostat More square meters with less energy doesn’t seem obvious
  36. 36. www.jancovici.com Tons transported in EU 25 since 2004. Data from Eurostat More trucks with less energy neither
  37. 37. www.jancovici.com And no more jobs either Jobs to population ratio in Greece since 1965. Data from world bank, 2018
  38. 38. www.jancovici.com Annual change of the GDP per capita in Europe. Jancovici, on data World Bank. Bloody physics! Rapid growth of energy per capita Stable energy supply per capita Post-peak: oooops… Brexit !
  39. 39. www.jancovici.com Fancy a little rule of three ? Now ≈ -1% per year Must grow at ≈ +0,4% per year for unemployment =0 Now ≈ +1,5% per year Revenues must remain still on average for jobs to keep pace with demographic growth
  40. 40. www.jancovici.com 2°C, a piece of cake? Temperature increase in 2100 arising from cumulated emissions since 1870. IPCC, 2015 2015 Cumulated CO2 emissions since 1870 in Gt ÷ 3 in 2050
  41. 41. www.jancovici.com And tomorrow ? Paris agreement : -3% per year Say +1% per year Dramatic increase ??? Revenues must decrease by 3% per year for jobs to keep pace with demographic growth
  42. 42. www.jancovici.com Questions?

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