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Diffusion of Innovation Dr. James E. Folkestad, PMP

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Diffusion <ul><li>Is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system </li></ul><ul><ul><li>It is a special type of communication, in which the messages are about a new idea </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The newness includes a degree of uncertainty </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social change </li></ul></ul>

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Overriding factors <ul><li>Uncertainty – reduce </li></ul><ul><li>Social change – manage </li></ul><ul><li>Perception – focus on </li></ul>

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Uncertainty <ul><li>Implies a lack of predictability, of structure, of information </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Information is a means of reducing uncertainty </li></ul></ul>

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Social change <ul><li>When new ideas are diffused social change occurs </li></ul><ul><li>More than just a “beneficial innovation” is necessary for its diffusion to occur </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Example: Dvorak Keyboard </li></ul></ul>

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Perceptions Count <ul><li>The receiver's perceptions of the attributes of an innovation, not the attributes as classified by experts or changes agents, affect its rate of adoption. </li></ul>

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Four Main Elements of Diffusion <ul><li>Innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Communication channels </li></ul><ul><li>Social System </li></ul><ul><li>Time </li></ul>

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Element 1) Innovation <ul><li>Is an idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Example: Solid Modeling </li></ul></ul>

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Innovation-Decision Process <ul><li>Information-seeking and information processing activity in which the individual is motivated to reduce uncertainty about the advantages and disadvantages of the innovation </li></ul>

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What is an Innovation? <ul><li>Hardware: consisting of the tool that embodies the technology as a material or physical object </li></ul><ul><li>Software: consisting of the information base for the tool </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sometimes a technology can entirely be composed of information </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Examples: JIT, Lean </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>These innovations have a lower degree of observability and thus a slower rate of adoption </li></ul></ul>

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Characteristics of Innovation <ul><li>Include: relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability, and observability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Research indicates these five characteristics are the most important in explaining the rate of adoption </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>As perceived by individuals, help to explain the innovations different rates of adoption </li></ul></ul>

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Rate of adoption

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Relative advantage <ul><li>Is the degree to which an innovation is perceived as better than the idea it supersedes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>May include economic terms, social prestige, convenience, satisfaction </li></ul></ul>

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Compatibility <ul><li>Is the degree to which innovation is perceived as being consistent with the existing values, past experiences, and needs of adopters </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Example: Rapid Solidification Process (RSP) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>An incompatible innovation often requires the prior adoption of a new value system which is a relatively slow process </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Example: water boiling in the Peruvian village of Los Molinas </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Other examples? </li></ul>

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Complexity <ul><li>Is the degree to which an innovation is perceived as difficult to understand and use </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New ideas that are simpler to understand are adopted more rapidly than innovations that require the adopter to develop new skills and understandings </li></ul></ul>

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Trialability <ul><li>Is the degree to which an innovation may be experimented with on a limited basis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Represents less uncertainty to the individual who is considering it for adoption </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Example: Downloadable software </li></ul></ul>

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Observability <ul><li>Is the degree to which the results of an innovation are visible to others </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The easier it is for individuals to see the results of an innovation, the more likely they are to adopt it </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Example: Solar adopters – located together </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Friends and neighbors of the adopter gather innovation-evaluation information </li></ul></ul></ul>

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Element 2) Communication Channels <ul><li>Diffusion is a particular type of communication in which the message content that is exchanged is concerned with a new idea </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Studies show that most individuals do not evaluate an innovation on the basis of scientific studies* </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Instead, most people depend mainly upon a subjective evaluation of an innovation that is conveyed to them from other individuals like themselves who have previously adopted the innovation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>So diffusion is a very social process </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>*often the very first adopters use objective scientific studies </li></ul></ul>

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Element 3) Social System <ul><ul><li>Diffusion occurs within a social system </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The social structure of the system affects the innovation’s diffusion </li></ul></ul>

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Social Structure <ul><li>Structure gives regularity and stability to human behavior in a system; it allows one to predict behavior with some degree of accuracy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Formal (bureaucratic) and informal communication structures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What social structures do we deal with? </li></ul></ul>

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Communication structures (informal) <ul><li>A complete lack of communication structures in a system would be represented by a situation in which each individual talked with equal probability to each other member in a system </li></ul><ul><li>Example: when a group of strangers come together </li></ul><ul><li>However, patterns soon begin to occur in the system </li></ul>

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Members of a social system <ul><li>Innovators and change agents </li></ul><ul><ul><li>These members are the most innovative </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Often perceived as deviants of the social system </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Given low credibility by the average member of the system </li></ul></ul>

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Opinion leader <ul><li>Able to influence other individuals’ attitudes in a desired way with relative frequency </li></ul><ul><li>Not a function of the individual’s formal position or status in the system </li></ul><ul><li>Earned and maintained by the individuals: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Technical competence </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social accessibility </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Conformity to the system’s norms </li></ul></ul>

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Characteristics Opinion Leader <ul><li>1) Exposed to external communication </li></ul><ul><li>2) Higher social status </li></ul><ul><li>3) More innovative – depending on system’s norms </li></ul><ul><li>4) They are the center of interpersonal communication networks </li></ul><ul><li>5) Members of the social system in which they exert their influence </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Respect can be lost if an opinion leader deviates too far from the norms of the system </li></ul></ul>

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Change Agent <ul><li>Is an individual who influences clients’ innovation-decisions in a direction deemed desirable by a change agency </li></ul><ul><li>Change agents use opinion leaders in a social system as their lieutenants in diffusion campaigns </li></ul>

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Adopter Categorization <ul><li>Use mean and standard deviation to divide the normal adopter distribution into categories </li></ul>

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Innovators <ul><li>Active information-seekers </li></ul><ul><li>High degree of mass media exposure </li></ul><ul><li>Interpersonal networks extend over a wide area </li></ul><ul><li>Cope with higher levels of uncertainty </li></ul><ul><li>Do not depend on subjective evaluations of the innovation from other members of their social system </li></ul>

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Innovators <ul><li>Venturesome </li></ul><ul><li>Friendships among innovators </li></ul><ul><li>Substantial financial resources </li></ul><ul><li>Understand and apply complex technical knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Ability to deal with high degree of uncertainty </li></ul>

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Early Adopters <ul><li>Respected </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated part of local social system </li></ul><ul><li>Greatest degree of opinion leadership </li></ul>

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Early Majority <ul><li>Deliberate </li></ul><ul><li>Adopt new ideas just before the average member of a system </li></ul><ul><li>Interact frequently with their peers </li></ul><ul><li>Most numerous adopter category (one-third of the system) </li></ul><ul><li>Follow with deliberate willingness in adopting innovations, but seldom lead. </li></ul>

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Late Majority <ul><li>Skeptical </li></ul><ul><li>Adoption may be both an economic necessity and the result of increasing network pressures from peers </li></ul><ul><li>Innovations are approached with a skeptical and cautious air </li></ul><ul><li>Pressure of peers is necessary to motivate adoption </li></ul><ul><li>Scarce resources – uncertainty must be removed </li></ul>

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Laggards <ul><li>Traditional </li></ul><ul><li>Last to adopt </li></ul><ul><li>Point of reference is the past </li></ul><ul><li>Decisions are made in terms of what has been done previously </li></ul><ul><li>Suspicious of innovation and change agents </li></ul><ul><li>Limited resources </li></ul>

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Socioeconomic Characteristics for earlier adopters <ul><li>Age not factor </li></ul><ul><li>More years of education </li></ul><ul><li>More likely to be literate </li></ul><ul><li>Higher social status </li></ul><ul><li>Greater degree of upward social mobility </li></ul><ul><li>Have larger units (farms, schools, companies) </li></ul>

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Socioeconomic <ul><li>It has been shown that innovators become richer and the laggards become relatively poorer through the innovation process </li></ul>

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Personality Variables – earlier adopters <ul><li>Greater empathy than later adopters </li></ul><ul><li>Less dogmatic </li></ul><ul><li>Greater ability to deal with abstractions </li></ul><ul><li>Greater intelligence </li></ul><ul><li>More favorable attitude toward change </li></ul><ul><li>Ability to cope with uncertainty </li></ul><ul><li>Have a favorable attitude toward science </li></ul><ul><li>Less fatalistic (ability to control their future) </li></ul><ul><li>Higher aspirations </li></ul>

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Communication Behavior – earlier adopters <ul><li>More social participation </li></ul><ul><li>More highly interconnected </li></ul><ul><li>More change agent contact </li></ul><ul><li>Greater exposure to mass media </li></ul><ul><li>Greater exposure to interpersonal communication channels </li></ul><ul><li>Seek info. about innovations more actively </li></ul><ul><li>Higher degree of opinion leadership </li></ul>

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Rate of adoption <ul><li>Is the relative speed with which an innovation is adopted by members of the social system </li></ul><ul><li>S-shaped curve </li></ul><ul><li>Variation in the slope of the “S” from innovation to innovation </li></ul>

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Summary <ul><li>Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system </li></ul><ul><li>Diffusion deals with perceived “new” ideas </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertainty is involved </li></ul><ul><li>Information decreases uncertainty </li></ul>

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Summary <ul><li>Rate of adoption is determined by the characteristics of an innovation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability, and observability) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Time is involved in diffusion </li></ul><ul><li>Five adopter categories (innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, laggards) </li></ul>

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Summary <ul><li>Social and communication structure of a system facilitates or impedes the diffusion of innovations </li></ul><ul><li>Opinion leaders and change agents are important for diffusion </li></ul>

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Assignment <ul><li>Diffusion of Innovations – Implementation plan </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(A3 & A7) </li></ul></ul>

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Assignment <ul><li>Diffusion of Innovations – Implementation plan </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(A3 & A7) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Write a short paper (4 pages maximum) describing your organization’s plan for implementing a new innovation. This can be a fictitious “plan” – or a fictitious event – for your organization. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Write this paper as though you are the change agent. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>As you write this implementation plan reflect on the concepts presented in this lecture on Diffusion of Innovation. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>You may want to refer back to figure # 6-1 (slide 39). You could write this paper based on the variable that impact the rate of adoption </li></ul></ul>

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Assignment (cont) <ul><ul><li>There are many additional resources available to you to learn more about diffusion of innovation theory. The Wikipedia entry “ Diffusion of Innovations ” provides a decent overview of Rogers’ theory and is a great starting point. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>There are many ways to organize this paper – here are two ideas… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>1) you could organize it around the five stages of the adoption process – explaining what you would do in each stage. See the “five stages of the adoption process” on Wikipedia </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>2) you could organize it based on Rogers’ five factors or characteristics (innovation characteristics) as presented in this presentation (also see “Rogers’ 5 Factors” on the Wikipedia entry). </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations </li></ul>