Predictions for Digital 2009 (Australia)

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Presentation given to Australian Interactive Media Industry Association breakfast. Broadly covered the theme of what would be the key topics in digital in Australia over the next years. Also has information from the Digital Services Index (stats on Australian Digital use)

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Predictions for Digital 2009 (Australia)

  1. 2. <ul><li>Exponential upward curves can be deceptively gradual in the beginning. But when things start happening, they happen fast </li></ul><ul><li>Within 5 years the exponential progress in nanoengineering will make solar power cost-competitive with fossil fuels </li></ul><ul><li>Within 10 years we will have a pill that allows us all to eat whatever we feel like and never gain any unwanted weight </li></ul><ul><li>In 15 years, life expectancies will start rising faster than we age </li></ul><ul><li>In about 20 years 100% of our energy will come from clean and renewable sources, and a computer will pass the Turing Test by carrying on a conversation that is indistinguishable from a human’s. </li></ul>Well, according to Ray Kurzweil
  2. 3. How many of the 90’s Australian Superbrands are in the top 100 AU websites?
  3. 4. = 6 Maybe we need to think differently about digital?
  4. 5. Base: Australians Online
  5. 6. It’s time the imbalance rebalanced
  6. 7. <ul><li>Strong financial justification required for digital </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But backed by returns that show it actually works </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Some Web 3.0 concepts: Cloud; SaaS; Portability; Semantics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Check out TripIt, Twine, Hakia etc </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Social networking leaves the ‘function’ </li></ul><ul><ul><li>And steps out everywhere as a feature </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mobility becomes critical </li></ul><ul><ul><li>From consumer touch point to advertising medium </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Performance-based online advertising won’t go away </li></ul><ul><ul><li>And we’ll start to measure much more carefully </li></ul></ul>
  7. 8. <ul><li>Companies will embrace digital as a way of cutting costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>They should do it as a way of serving customers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>26% of digital media is outsourced versus 22% for other IT </li></ul><ul><li>Measurement and Return on Investment (ROI) increasingly important </li></ul>
  8. 9. <ul><li>First Measure of the WHOLE Digital Services Industry in Australia </li></ul><ul><li>Shows us the SCALE and Breadth of investment in Digital Services </li></ul><ul><li>Confirms that Digital is MORE THAN Online Advertising </li></ul><ul><li>Online Advertising is only 1/3 of the total expenditure on Marketing via Digital Channels…. </li></ul><ul><li>… and about 9% of the overall spend on Digital Services </li></ul>Australian Digital Services Industry A$17.9Bn Total Digital Marketing Spend A$4.5Bn Online Advertising A$1.5Bn
  9. 10. AUS$17.9 Billion spent on Digital Services in 2008 Key Findings For Digital Services
  10. 11. 14.3% of enterprise expenditure on Digital Services
  11. 12. 40% of customers engaged through Digital Services
  12. 13. 25% of customer expenditure tied to Digital Services
  13. 14. 77% of DSI respondents from companies > 1000 people
  14. 15. <ul><li>Smaller projects, increasingly ‘agile’ </li></ul><ul><li>Better proof of concept (perpetual beta) </li></ul><ul><li>Cloud computing </li></ul><ul><li>Software as a Service </li></ul><ul><li>Semantic mark-ups – get there before your competitor </li></ul>
  15. 19. Tools to get you started
  16. 20. <ul><li>Feature not function (across other sites). Facebook connect </li></ul><ul><li>Social Networks recognised as key communication tool (35% of corporate communities have less than 100 members) </li></ul><ul><li>Extension of ‘social messaging service’ (another SMS!) </li></ul><ul><li>Twitter and Yammer are mainstream products </li></ul><ul><ul><li>One public and social </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>One enterprise and social </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But remember your audiences on new platforms </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not just another ‘channel’ to dump a message </li></ul></ul>
  17. 21. Your friends … on Amazon?
  18. 22. And why not across portals? Jen @ Work just commented on NSW 'Little Pinkie' road ad a big success Emily just read Lindsay Lohan 'has blown fortune' Cherie is now friends with Shelley Jen @ Work recently read NSW 'Little Pinkie' road ad a big success kate beddoe recently voted in Passion Pulse Julie shopped for a new fridge Julie shopped for a washing machine Emily read E! Online Chris Noone watched this trailer Hot Rod Footprints Where have yours friends been on ninemsn?
  19. 23. <ul><li>Most ubiquitous device (ever) </li></ul><ul><li>Responded to very quickly (96% SMS read in 20 mins) </li></ul><ul><li>On 24 x 7, nearby and accessed often </li></ul><ul><li>Communication, content and utility </li></ul><ul><li>Response to mobile advertising incredible: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3% - 7% response rate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10% - 20% conversation rate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>6 times the ROI on mobile compared to other forms </li></ul></ul><ul><li>So maybe this year – businesses will start to embrace this </li></ul><ul><li>And for Goodness sake – not just on iPhone! </li></ul>
  20. 25. <ul><li>Performance-based online advertising isn’t going away </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cost per click/ cost per referral </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We’ll start to measure much more carefully (and on mobile) </li></ul><ul><li>With more accountability and honesty </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Especially where we go social (No, Witchery was not a success) </li></ul></ul>Our belief is that marketing and product have converged. The consumer doesn't separate the marketing experience from the product experience. Ajaz Ahmed, CEO AKQA
  21. 27. <ul><li>The greening of IT (Google has 500k servers – what a footprint!) </li></ul><ul><li>Augmented reality (mobile, online and other) </li></ul><ul><li>New evil empires (Google, Apple, Facebook) </li></ul><ul><li>And new saviours (Google, Apple, Facebook) </li></ul>
  22. 28. <ul><li>Common low data rate for mobile </li></ul><ul><ul><li>If we complain about broadband speeds… </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mobile as consumer engagement channel </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not just a marketing tool (which budget?) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Dramatically better (behavioural) tracking </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Did I mention context? Or personalisation? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Wholesale (and understood) data rate </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Make advertisers pay for watching their content </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Smarter mobile services </li></ul><ul><ul><li>And more than iPhone please! </li></ul></ul>
  23. 29. <ul><li>Advertising and entertainment merging </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Can’t get audience? Can’t get funding? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>More Social Message Services </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Twitter more mainstream </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Use of these in enterprise </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Yammer – internal twitter </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Social networks leave the applications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Becomes feature, not trapped as function </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Can we stop the ‘cloud’ being owned? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The next evil empire is….. </li></ul></ul>
  24. 30. It will make us stronger, it will make us more relevant it will make the brave, very successful

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