Artificial Intelligence Past Present and Future

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A presentation from IFIP Congress 2004, where I give my vision of the evolution of AI, reasons of AI winter, and belief that it is the monly way to improve Information Processing in the future

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Artificial Intelligence Past Present and Future

  1. 1. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE: My point of view JDr Jean Rohmer jean.rohmer@fr.thalesgroup.com Battlespace Tansformation Centre Thales Communications, France INVITED TALK August 26 th. IFIP World Congress Conference 2004 ToulouseThales Communications
  2. 2. WHY AI SUCCEEDED IN THE 80 ’s / early 90 ’s Examples: SACHEM, RAMSES, METAPEDIA … multi M€ in the 80’s Les informations contenues dans ce document sont la propriété exclusive du Groupe Thales. Elles ne doivent pas être divulguées sans laccord écrit de Thales Communications. Hardware was slow and expensive Hardware and systems were valuable professional and industrial assets which had to be profitable through ambitious applications The situation was stable (… and boring) in Computer Science: OS, Databases, C, C++ IT WAS TIME TO DO MORE EXCITING THINGSDate - Nom de fichier - Entité THAN SOFTWARE ENGINEERING WITH COMPUTERS Japanese Fifth Generation Computing Program was key 2 Thales Communications
  3. 3. WHY AI vanished in the early 90 ’S Economical crisis AI was an expensive way to save money Les informations contenues dans ce document sont la propriété exclusive du Groupe Thales. Elles ne doivent pas être divulguées sans laccord écrit de Thales Communications. Hardware was slow and expensive (bis) AI applications did not look different for the user ! AI kept fighting and losing against Software Engineering AI NEEDED HUMAN EFFORT, DISCIPLINE, CONTINUITY AND INTELLIGENCEDate - Nom de fichier - Entité RESEARCHERS NOT INTERESTED IN EVERYDAY LIFE APPLICATIONS Natural Language / Voice Processing did not deliver 3 Thales Communications
  4. 4. WHY AI IS behind the scene SINCE 10 YEARS TOO MANY THINGS HAPPENED: Les informations contenues dans ce document sont la propriété exclusive du Groupe Thales. Elles ne doivent pas être divulguées sans laccord écrit de Thales Communications. IN HARDWARE IN INTERNET / EMAIL IN MUSIC / PHOTO / VIDEO NO MORE TIME, MONEY, EXCITATION, DREAM WAS LEFT FOR THINGS LIKE AI VERY FEW ENGINEERS, COMPUTER SCIENTISTS WERE LEFT FOR AI (The bored ones went to Open Source development)Date - Nom de fichier - Entité Accelerated Business Tempo did not encourage intelligence (even artificial) 4 Thales Communications
  5. 5. Date - Nom de fichier - Entité 5Thales Communications AS INTELLIGENT AS WE ARE TO BUILD ARTIFICIAL SYSTEMS WE ARE NOT INTELLIGENT ENOUGH WHY IS AI SO DIFFICULT ? Les informations contenues dans ce document sont la propriété exclusive du Groupe Thales. Elles ne doivent pas être divulguées sans laccord écrit de Thales Communications.
  6. 6. SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR AI INTEL HAS PROBLEMS WITH MOORE ’S LAW Les informations contenues dans ce document sont la propriété exclusive du Groupe Thales. Elles ne doivent pas être divulguées sans laccord écrit de Thales Communications. DEFENCE, INTELLIGENCE AND HOMELAND SECURITY DEMAND A NEW GENERATION OF INFORMATION PROCESSING SYSTEMS WESTERN COUNTRIES MUST FIND NEW DOMAINS OF ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE Lisbon European Union Objectives (March 2000): « Become the most competitive knowledge-based society in the world in 2010 »Date - Nom de fichier - Entité What do we have else to improve information processing ? 6 Thales Communications
  7. 7. IDELIANCE: A FRUIT OF THE AI WINTER 1993: a personal tool for professional knowledge management Les informations contenues dans ce document sont la propriété exclusive du Groupe Thales. Elles ne doivent pas être divulguées sans laccord écrit de Thales Communications. Choice: Build a personal Semantic Nets Editor (Ako Personal Semantic Web avant la lettre) Eliminate: programming, modelling, databases, document Structure emerges a posteriori from dataDate - Nom de fichier - Entité Keep only the Representation part of AI (no inference) Main designers: S. Le Bars, J. Rohmer Main developpers: S. Jean, D. Poisson 2000: Multiusers Web Server 7 Thales Communications
  8. 8. IDELIANCE MAIN CHARACTERISTICS MILITARY FIELD TESTED: BUSINESS USAGES: Synthetic Intelligence Les informations contenues dans ce document sont la propriété exclusive du Groupe Thales. Elles ne doivent pas être divulguées sans laccord écrit de Thales Communications. •Knowledge Management Program Management •Information Fusion Tactical Intelligence •Competitive Intelligence Part of NATO Demonstrator on Information Fusion MAIN ADVANTAGES: Flexibility: users develop their own models on the field Interoperability: fusion of structured and unstructured data Robustness: easy to install and deploy, easy to learn Advanced Features: complex graph operations, graph queries, gateways with standardDate - Nom de fichier - Entité formats (XML, SQL, XLS ...) 8 Thales Communications
  9. 9. Date - Nom de fichier - Entité 9Thales Communications MUST BE DEVELOPPED BY END USERS THEMSELVES NEXT GENERATION AI APPLICATIONS CONJECTURE FOR THE FUTURE Les informations contenues dans ce document sont la propriété exclusive du Groupe Thales. Elles ne doivent pas être divulguées sans laccord écrit de Thales Communications.
  10. 10. FUTURE: EXTENDING IDELIANCE APPROACH OVERCOMING CURRENT AI LIMITATIONS IMPLIES MORE EFFORT FROM THE END USERS, NOT FROM ENGINEERS Les informations contenues dans ce document sont la propriété exclusive du Groupe Thales. Elles ne doivent pas être divulguées sans laccord écrit de Thales Communications. FORGET THE Soft. Eng. APPROACH: « just click, and we (software and knowledge engineers) take care of the rest !» DEVELOP A NEW LANGUAGE TRULY SHARED BY MAN AND MACHINE Make social experiments using this language (e.g. in the defence and security community) Useful references for the Future:Date - Nom de fichier - Entité 1491: Phoenix seu artificiosa memoria. Pietro Tommai (Pierre de Ravenne) 1591: De imaginum signorum et idearum compositione. Giordano Bruno 1629: Lettre à Mersenne. René Descartes 1666: Dissertatio de arte combinatoria. G.W. Leibnitz 10 Thales Communications

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