B U S I N E S S T E C H N O L O G YWhat technology experts foresee for thenot-so-distant, it-will-be-here-before-we-know-it future.
T A B L E O F C O N T E N T STechnology BecomesMore HumanBrian David Johnson05The Last CorporateData Center ShutsIts DoorsDick Csaplar09A New Business World,Thanks to CloudComputingKevin L. Jackson11Welcome to the AppStore of the FutureDennis Brouwer13UnderstandingConsumers Now WillPrepare UsRichard Sear15Three Trends That WillTransform BusinessPaul Bloom07Smart Technology WillTransform Health CareStephen Ward17
Cloud ComputingBarriers Will Fall,Adoption Will RiseSean BuckleyFor CIOs, the OnlyConstant is ChangeATLANTIC-ACM2527Expect Big Changesto IT Organizationand InfrastructureKen Male23Smaller Data Centers,Thanks to Virtualizationand Third-Party ProvidersRobert Neill19Smart Users andSmart Networks WillHelp Each Other GrowJuniper Networks‘Grandpa, What isa Computer?’Dick Csaplar3129Enterprise CloudAdoption Enters aNew PhaseAmy DeCarlo21
202020202020Technology is moving so quickly, predictions for next yearalready are losing relevance. A more distant view is nowrequired to stay ahead of the curve. Short-term trends comeand go, but the true impact of mobility, Big Data and the cloudstill remains to be seen. That’s why we asked some experts toweigh in on their long-term predictions for business technology.So 2020, here we go. Or rather, here we come.W E L C O M E T O4
Brian David JohnsonFuturist and Director,Future Casting andExperience ResearchIntel Corporation@intelfuturisttomorrow-projects.comBrian David Johnson’s charteris to develop an actionable visionfor computing in 2020. Alongwith reinventing TV, Johnson hasbeen pioneering developmentin artificial intelligence androbotics and using science fictionas a design tool. He speaksand writes extensively aboutfuture technologies in articlesand scientific papers as wellas science fiction short storiesand novels (Fake Plastic Love,Nebulous Mechanisms: The Dr.Simon Egerton Stories and theforthcoming This Is Planet Earth).HUMANT E C H N O L O G Y B E C O M E S M O R EAs Intel’s Futurist, it’s my job to look 10 to 15 years out andunderstand how people will act and interact with technology.5I do this through a process called futurecasting, a mix of social science, technicalresearch, economic forecasts, data analysis,hundreds of hours of global interviews — andeven a bit of science fiction. Although thismight sound a little like science fiction, it’sactually quite pragmatic. It takes about 10years for us to design, develop and deploy thechips, platforms and computational intelligencethat we manufacture as a company. It is ofvital business importance today for Intel tounderstand what people will want to doin a decade.One of the most exciting and importantdevelopments we’ve seen as we approach2020 is that the size of meaningfulcomputational power approaches zero. Aswe continue to make the chips smaller andfaster, the size of meaning computationpower approaches zero by volume. That’s sosmall that it’s nearly invisible. For decades inthe technology industry we’ve been askingourselves “can.” Can we make a workstationsmall enough to fit in a desktop? Can wemake a desktop computer small enough tofit in your lap? Can we make a laptop smallenough to fit in your pocket? Can we do it?That was the question.As we continue to make the chips smallerand faster, the size of meaning computationpower approaches zero by volume. That’s sosmall that it’s nearly invisible.
Employment inall computeroccupationsincreases bySOURCE: COMPUTERWORLDPICTURING2020622%Imagine if your collection of business machinesknew all the most important things about you sothat you could be your most productive self. Weknow that our states change through the day.When we are at home, we are one person. Whenwe are at work, we are another. When we arebusy and rushed, we operate in one mode. Whenwe are on the road, we work in a completelydifferent fashion. Now imagine that your devicescould sense this through multiple hardware,software and service solutions and tailor yourworking experience for optimal comfort andproductivity.Hyper-personalization down to the individual cango far beyond the trivial. Imagine a machine thatcan tailor its information design differently forintroverts versus extroverts. This vision for thefuture of work gets really interesting when weapply it to the four generations of workers wewill need in the workforce in 2020.By asking ourselves what we want this increasingcomputational intelligence to do, we can makesystems that are more humanly, that adapt to awide variety of people and, ultimately, that makethe workforce of 2020 not only more productivebut able to live meaningfully better.When the size of meaningful computationalpower approaches zero, something wonderfulhappens. We don’t have to ask ourselves“can” we do it anymore. We have to askourselves “what.” What do we want do?When you get intelligence that small, youcan turn anything into a computer. You couldturn a table into a computer. All of a suddenit’s possible to turn your shirt, your chair andeven your body into a computer. That’s whywe have to ask: What do we want to do withall that intelligence?The business implications of this shift areboth exciting and massive. How we think aboutthe systems we build, the services we deployand the people we hire and train will need tochange. For example, all of this computationalpower will mean that we will be able tohyper-personalize the working environment foreach employee. People will not only be ableto work where and when they want, but theywill be able to work how they want, thanksto machines that can tailor themselves. Ourmachines will become more human and knowus better so that they can communicate withus with better efficiency.
Paul BloomCTO, Telecom ResearchIBM@pdbloomibm.com/communicationsPaul Bloom is responsiblefor applying the latest IBMtechnologies and researchfrom its eight laboratories toemerging telecom solutions.He recently led the researchstrategy for Mobility andis driving IBM Watsonapplications for the IBMTelecom team. Bloom also isa member of the IBM telecomexecutive team, which isresponsible for IBM’s solutionsand sales in the telecom market.T H R E E T R E N D S T H A T W I L LAs I look toward 2020,I see three trends thatwill transform businessesin the future.TRANSFORMBUSINESS7Machine-to-MachineTechnology and AnalyticsThis type of technology, in whichinstrumented assets communicate andtransmit to data-gathering systems,will dramatically transform quite a fewindustries. The opportunities businesseshave to monitor and mine for data are huge.Take health care, for example: We can nowuse smartphones to monitor our daily bodilyfunctions, and the data can be transmittedalong with health records directly tophysicians. By 2020, it could be possiblefor a health care professional to make adiagnosis based on that data and obtaina recommended course of action.MobilityOne of the most important technologytrends we’re seeing is mobility. And mobilityis not really a technology; it’s a state ofmind. Mobility is one of those trends thatbusinesses should take a step back andlook at how they can take advantage ofthe capabilities and transform how theyinteract with users, employees and partners.Mobility will allow context and location datato be available to better serve customers.Advanced predictive analytics will allowany person’s location at any point in timeto be forecast. It will allow enterprises tocommunicate and collaborate with employees,helping employees to be efficient by usingprofile, capability and location data. It alreadyis reshaping the shopping experience, as anyshopper can get any price information aswell as competitive bids during the shoppingexperience and complete transactions withtheir mobile wallets.
Using advancedalgorithms andsilicon circuitry,cognitivecomputerslearn throughexperiences, findcorrelations, createhypotheses, andremember — andlearn from — theoutcomes.8Cognitive ComputingFor more than half a century, computershave been little better than calculatorswith storage structures and programmablememory, a model that scientists havecontinually aimed to improve. Comparatively,the human brain — the world’s mostsophisticated computer — can performcomplex tasks rapidly and accurately usingthe same amount of energy as a 20 wattlight bulb in a space equivalent to a 2 litersoda bottle. Today, data is being createdat an unbelievable rate. Making sense ofreal-time input flowing in at a dizzying rateis a Herculean task for today’s computers,but it would be natural for a brain-inspiredsystem. Using advanced algorithms andsilicon circuitry, cognitive computers learnthrough experiences, find correlations, createhypotheses and learn from the outcomes.For example, a cognitive computing systemmonitoring the world’s water supply couldcontain a network of sensors and actuatorsthat constantly record and report metricssuch as temperature, pressure, wave height,acoustics and ocean tide, and issue tsunamiwarnings based on its decision-making.Researchers at IBM have been working ona cognitive computing project called Systemsof Neuromorphic Adaptive Plastic ScalableElectronics (SyNAPSE). By reproducingthe structure and architecture of thebrain — the way its elements receivesensory input, connect to one another,adapt these connections, and transmitmotor output — the SyNAPSE project modelscomputing systems that emulate the brain’scomputing efficiency, size and power usagewithout being programmed. IBM is combiningprinciples from nanoscience, neuroscienceand supercomputing as part of a multi-yearcognitive computing initiative.Another early example of cognitive computingis the IBM Watson solution, which has theability, through natural language understanding,to comprehend questions asked and provideanswers with supporting evidence. Watsonconstantly learns from changes in data andits experiences. This technology will be usedin the health care industry to help physiciansmake the right diagnoses; in financialindustries, so planners can optimize theirclients’ portfolios; and for telcos to transformthe customer contact experience.For businesses to take advantage of thesetechnologies, it’s important for them tounderstand what their IT departments aredoing today and where they want theirbusinesses to go. Whether you’re an automanufacturer that wants to be a companycreating travel experiences for customersin 2020, or a telco that wants to helptransform other enterprises, you will needto understand what technology will bestsupport your business in getting there.
Dick CsaplarSenior Research Analyst,Virtualization and StorageAberdeen ITInfrastructure Groupaberdeen.comDick Csaplar, who has morethan 30 years of experience inthe IT field, covers the growingconcept of cloud computing,both private and public. He hasworked, lived or traveled in morethan 60 countries.9SHUTS ITS DOORST H E L A S T C O R P O R A T E D A T A C E N T E RThe doors to the last corporate data center were closedtoday, and the remaining servers were sent to a recyclingcenter for metal reclamation.We all knew this day was coming. Datacenters just don’t make sense anymore. Itseems strange that a fixture of 20th centurybusiness would go the way of water wheelsand canal barges.I started my career in a data center. In theearly 1980s, Digital Equipment Corporationannounced the PDP line of mini-computers,making the concept of a data center popular.True, there had been some organizationswith large mainframes in specially designedrooms before, but this was only for the largestand richest of government departments andcompanies. The mini-computer was cheapenough, and applications had become usefulenough for small and midsize organizationsto buy and invest in computers — and therequired IT specialists — making data centersa fixture in every company by the 1990s.They changed over time, of course. The firstrequired raised floors to carry the wires andthe cooling needed to keep them running.The number changed, too. Once there wasonly one per company, but then the cost ofcomputers dropped and every department,remote location and project had to have itsown. You really weren’t worth anything if youdidn’t have your set of computers. But this gotout of hand. Companies tried to re-centralizethe operations as complexity and redundancybecame common. But that really didn’t changethe situation. Departments still had to payan “IT tax” without understanding what theywere getting.
10PICTURING2020SOURCE: SEEKING ALPHAThere are nearly13 times morestored data.2012 202035 ZB2.7 ZBThe real change started early this centurywith the cloud. It’s a funny term, as that wasthe word IT people used to show parts ofthe IT infrastructure they didn’t understandnor care about when drawing up theirschematics. There finally was an alternativeto having to finance, buy, budget, depreciate,write off, install, staff, upgrade, network,manage, defrag, protect, fix, power, cool,retire, decommission and dispose of theirown servers.It appeared that company managementfinally came to realize that there was nothingto be gained from owning a private set ofservers that couldn’t be accomplished at alower cost by managed service providersin the public cloud. As cloud use increased,the IT function in the enterprise transformedfrom writing code, deploying hardware andperforming data backups to being a businesspartner with company management. IT nowtranslates the company’s business objectivesinto services performed by cloud providers.IT negotiates contracts and manages SLAs.When the monthly bill arrives that says howmuch computing and storage is used, it’s thejob of IT to make sure it is accurate. Even thelargest companies removed their data centersby turning them into clouds of their own.They even rent out their unused computecapacity to companies they trust.For us older types, it seems kind of funny totalk of data centers as being part of history,but we all saw it coming. It hardly seemsworth talking about, but in their day, theywere really cool. Most people now seemhappier, though. Business managers knowwhat they are paying for, IT is no longerlooked at as being the “progress prevention”department, and users get what they needwhen and only for as long as they need it.It’s a strange world now, but it does makesense, even to someone like me.As cloud use increased, theIT function in the enterprisetransformed from writingcode, deploying hardware andperforming data backups tobeing a business partner withcompany management.
Key drivers of this future include:Even lower IT costs driven by higherlevels of automation and increasedon-demand and self-service capabilitiesA revolution in the consumer supply chainlogistics enabled by new manufacturingparadigms like digital product deliveryand three-dimensional printingBroadening network access allowinga global customer base for nearlyany productCross-service provider resource poolingenabled by inter-cloud standards and theubiquitous use of cloud service brokersKevin L. JacksonVice President and GeneralManager, Cloud ServicesNJVC@kevin_jacksonkevinljackson.blogspot.comKevin L. Jackson helps leadone of the largest informationtechnology solutions providersfor the U.S. Department ofDefense. He has been involvedin the effort between industryand the U.S. National Instituteof Standards and Technologyon the federal adoption of cloudcomputing technologies. Heis the founder and author of“Cloud Musings” (kevinljackson.blogspot.com), a widely followedblog that focuses on the use ofcloud computing by the federalgovernment, and editor andfounder of “Government CloudComputing on Ulitzer” electronicmagazine (govcloud.ulitzer.com).A N E W B U S I N E S S W O R L D , T H A N K S T OThe world is accelerating into cloud computing. By 2020,cloud service will be the primary IT consumption sourcefor 90 percent of individuals and enterprises.11Although technologyis certainly theenabler, change in thebusiness environmentis being acceleratedby our expandingdigital culture.CLOUDCOMPUTING
PICTURING2020SOURCE: MASHABLE46%12An often overlooked part of this story is thatcloud computing is changing the very nature ofbusiness. Although technology is certainly theenabler, change in the business environmentis being accelerated by our expanding digitalculture. That, in turn, is also widening theuse and acceptance of task-built virtualorganizations. A 2020 leading edge corporationwill resemble a pick-up basketball team:Quickly assembledFocused on accomplishing ashort-lived mutual goalDispersed quickly once the goalis obtainedIT infrastructure will be assembled in asimilar fashion by going to a cloud brokeragewebsite, swiping a credit card, pickingfrom a menu of pre-assembled businessprocess-as-a-service (BPaaS) offerings,renewing periodically and simply turning offthe IT when finished. Software developersalso will be an anachronism. The abilityof business managers to simply assemblecustom business applications from the menuprovided by an advanced, infrastructureindependent, platform-as-a-service offeringwill be an expected skill. Business ownersand shareholders will be amply rewardedfor these cloud enabled sense-and-respondcapabilities with global market share anduntold riches.This future vision is virtually guaranteed.Would you go back to using a flip phone thatcan do nothing more than make a phone call?Cloud computing revolutionized the consumermarketplace, and it will certainly revolutionizethe business marketplace as well.Millennials composeof the U.S. workforce.
OF THE FUTUREDennis BrouwerSenior Vice President,Products and MarketingCenturyLink@centurylinkbizcenturylink.com/businessDennis Brouwer is responsiblefor product strategy andmarketing for EMG’s networking,communications and relatedservices across the U.S., EMEAand Asia-Pacific regions.APP STOREIn 2020, we’ll be talking about cloud. You might be thinking,“Seven more years of this?” My view of 2020 is that, yes, wewill be talking cloud, but not in the same way we do today.W E L C O M E T O T H E13If you think about it, every seemingly “new” ITtrend is just another application of a previoustrend. For example, virtual networking, whichwe know today as MPLS, started with X.25,and then reappeared as ATM, then FrameRelay, and finally, IP services. Virtualizedcompute services started as time-sharing inthe 1980s, then moved on to mainframe-basedVirtual Machines, and then the intensiveserver-based cloud we are familiar with today.In this way, I predict that the next incarnationof cloud will be the virtualization of theentire application delivery infrastructure. Inthe future, enterprises will be able to buyapplications that can be quickly integratedinto existing infrastructure through software-based extensions available through APIs. Thisis tantamount to an “app store” for enterprises,but that’s just the beginning. Companies willbe able not only to buy, but also configure andspecify performance characteristics of thoseapplications to meet the needs of the business.Underlying infrastructure will be reconfiguredon the fly by apps to ensure that they deliverthe desired user experience. This controlwill start with the browser on user PCs, butextend to include data center-based services,private networking, and compute and storageresources. For example, businesses will beable to set security and privacy policies,performance parameters, reporting and evensee their bill through a virtualized softwarelayer. What will this mean to the enterprise?When it buys an app, the enterprise willget the whole package: performance andreporting, automated suggestions on how tooptimize its environment, and an automatedbill that can be easily integrated into the flowof information.
SOURCE: CHANNEL PARTNERS ONLINEof technologyspending isoutside theIT budget.90%PICTURING202014What can companies do now to bepositioned to take advantage of virtualizedapplication delivery?PlanBusinesses should consider organizingfor success by creating teams to focus oninnovation, growth and how technologyadoption will affect their user base. Productorganizations need time to respond to marketdemands and the possibilities of technologymash-ups, but a start-up like focus on theseissues can reduce speed innovation andreduce time to market. The future is brightfor companies that can really focus on theirusers, deliver what their users want, andcontinue to execute as the business grows.Protect and Securethe Crown JewelsWith data centers and network becomingmore global and interwoven, the opportunityto access higher-growth markets is wellwithin reach. But that brings a host ofchallenges for businesses as they encounterdifferent regulatory requirements, securitystandards and overall global security threats.As more businesses are finding out, workingwith a global technology provider thatspecializes in the latest and greatest securitytechnology and certifications is morecost-effective than doing it themselves.Embrace SoftwareLike it or not, most of the features thateither delight or infuriate enterprisebuyers are software-based. With that inmind, businesses will need to cultivate anawareness of the demands, benefits andpitfalls of software as it’s deployed in theenterprise. How your sales professionalsdeliver a quote, place an order for acustomer, and provision your goods andservices can all be automated with software.With a forward-thinking perspective and theright steps, businesses can be poised to takeadvantage of technology in 2020 and beyond.The nextincarnationof cloudwill bevirtualizationof the entireapplicationdeliveryinfrastructure.
Richard SearCorporate Vice PresidentFrost & Sullivan@searrichardfrost.comRichard Sear leads Frost &Sullivan’s Visionary InnovativeResearch Group, a team ofglobal consultants focusedon understanding how futuretransformative developmentswill affect the various industriesit monitors, tomorrow’sconsumers and clients it serves.He believes that we can shapethe future by taking practicaldata-driven steps that keepdecision-making firmly groundedin future certainties. His 17 yearsat Frost & Sullivan have led himto work with various industries,including energy, health care,IT and chemicals, giving hima rounded perspective of theglobal business environment.So many options, so littletime, so much pressure toreduce costs. Do I reallyneed to think about 2020?I am only now figuring outcloud, and now you wantme to think beyond cloud?15Technology ismoving forward atsuch a rapid pace ofchange, if you donot innovate today,you will not have thechance tomorrow.UNDERSTANDINGCONSUMERS NOWAnd so goes the pressure of someone livingin the IT and communications technologyarena today. Frankly, yes, I expect all ofthose things of you, and more. Technologyis moving forward at such a rapid pace ofchange, if you do not innovate today, you willnot have the chance tomorrow. The days ofbeing able to play catch-up are going away,if not already gone. So my outside-in viewreally consists of a few core observationsbased on my travel around the world,interacting with dozens of industries, peopleand entities. Here is my take on your keymusts when thinking 2020:Get “Consumer Smart”We talk about “smart technologies” all the timebecause we techies love developing “stuff.” Butwe can’t continue to do this blindly, pretendingwe know the end user. Gen Y influence isgrowing at a frenetic pace, and let us behonest: How much do we really know about itsmembers? That is to say 2.4 billion of them by2020. Ignore them at your peril, since they willdecide whether what you do will actually workor not, no matter how “cool” you think it is.Oh, and focus on China and India, because 37percent of the 2.4 billion will come from there— and not just as potential consumers, but asyour fiercest competitors!W I L L P R E P A R E U S
16SOURCE: MASHABLEPICTURING2020Most consumers fully adoptsmart-device swiping forpurchases, nearly eliminatingcash and credit cards.Know That HumansAre AggregatingSixty percent of us will live in cities by 2020,and that percent will increase each year after.This means that short distance connectivityis critical, but it also means there will besignificant pressure on infrastructure andcity resources. This translates to opportunityfor those with a thirst for tough problems tosolve. The winners will come from thosewho understand these two key trends, butthey also must have an effective businessmodel to capitalize on that understanding.Therefore, traditional companies will faceincreasing pressures from new entitiesknown and unknown with creative modelsto bring solutions to consumers andbusiness. Much of that will rest on howtransformational your Big Data strategy is.I could list many issues, and I likely havenot done justice to them all, but some tothink about are the importance of ubiquitousconnectivity; the key that is IPv6; never losinga wallet or keys again because we won’t ownany; and interacting with media, and howthat will dramatically change with the notionof the TV evolving. But when the dust settles,I know as a long-term planner that this willstill be a society of personal interaction. Sofocus on how you can make those personalinteractions of higher quality and, if you like,“humanize” your technology.
TRANSFORMStephen WardChief Executive OfficerVirtual Care Works Inc.virtualcareworks.comStephen Ward, who hasmore than 28 years ofexperience in health carenetwork development, worksto advance his vision ofdeveloping a national healthcare information network tosupport health care reformadvancements of electronichealth records and medicaldata transport. He hassuccessfully negotiatedan agreement with Level 3Communications, one of thelargest fiber carriers in theworld, to manage the privatemedical-grade network withinits secure Layer 1 cybercenter. He also has attainedthe distinction of Fellowof the American College ofHealthcare Executives.S M A R T T E C H N O L O G Y W I L LHEALTH CARETechnology is not a barrier to health care. Rather, it is a“discovery tool” to help improve the quality of an individualwith the overall intent to improve the quality of life.In 2020, when patients go to the doctor fortheir annual exams, they will see incrediblechanges to the workflow of the clinic visit.No More FormsPatients will not have to fill out the sameinformation they did the last time they visitedthe clinic, specialist, exercise training center,pain management clinic or any other healthservices center. Signing in with technologysuch as an iris scan will use object-orientedprogramming to intuitively know where thelatest patient health information is located— and automatically populate and updateto the most current data file on record.In fact, signing in will tell patients how muchco-pays are and total deductibles to date.It might even be able to pull money directlyfrom an HSA to pay for the deductible.Shared Health RecordsThe electronic health record will replace thepaper medical record of today. Patient recordswill be stored in virtual repositories aroundthe world that are easily accessible to otherhealth care providers whom patients havegiven consent to read.In fact, a doctor’s medical-grade secureand HIPAA-compliant network will be ableto access radiology images at 1.3 terabytesper second, all before patients even get tothe exam room. The power of this cumulativerecord is that a patient’s personal care teamwill be informed of all the healthy behaviorsmonitored by bluetooth technology since thelast visit. A specialist will have knowledgeof a primary care doctor’s interventions, andin turn, will see your progress with cardiactherapies or diabetes management.17
The physician of the future will havecompleted a full gene scan and will be ableto tailor individual health recommendationsto the medications patients take and howmedicines react to the foods patients eat(or don’t eat), and drug interactions will bealerted before medications are given.Smarter Health RecordsThe electronic health record will havethe ability to perform analytics on theinformation from patient lab tests or homemonitoring devices. A patient’s vital signreadings will populate the electronic healthrecord before the doctor has even enteredthe exam room, thanks to readings from afinger band given during sign in that recordsblood oxygen levels, blood sugar levels andpulse. As a patient walks in the exam room,weight will be taken, and height and bodymass key indicators will be recorded.Tablets and DashboardsDoctors will come in to exam rooms carryingsmart tablets with patients’ electronic healthrecords. They will show a dashboard view ofa patient’s current health status, highlightingfactors out of the normative range. Thedoctor will address and focus on these issuesfirst; and, through a process of clinical careguidelines of best practices, will recommendthe appropriate course of treatment. Anyprescriptions patients need will be emailedimmediately to the preferred pharmacies andbe ready when they arrive.A patient’s vital sign readings will populate theelectronic health record before the doctor has evenentered the exam room.PICTURING202018%14.49Cloud-basedapplicationsreplaceof enterpriseIT spending.SOURCE: CLOUD COMPUTING NEWS
THANKS TOVIRTUALIZATIONRobert NeillVice President,Corporate Technology ServicesHarte-Hanks@rdntxharte-hanks.comRobert Neill is responsiblefor the management ofenterprise technical services,including telecommunicationsinfrastructure, electronicmessaging, wirelesscommunications, back-officeapplications such as financialreporting and human resources,data center operations, and localuser support. In addition, he isresponsible for the developmentof security and informationtechnology policies andplays a key role in monitoringcompliance with Sarbanes-Oxley and data privacy relatedregulatory requirements.S M A L L E R D A T A C E N T E R S,A N D T H I R D - P A R T Y P R O V I D E R SI was recently asked thequestion, “What will businesstechnology look like in 2020?”19My first thought was, “That’s so far out intothe future; there is no way to think that manyyears ahead.” Then I looked at the calendarand realized it was almost 2013, and that2020 really wasn’t far down the road. I alsorealized my oldest daughter will be wrappingup college around 2020 and entering theworkforce for the first time. So I decided toask her what she thought it would look like.My daughter’s first response was one ofshock that in seven years she would bestarting a career. She told me she thoughtpeople would just be using some kind oftablet for work, but a tablet a little biggerthan what we use today. One that lets youdo multiple things at once: be on a videocall, edit a document, and look at a Webpage. She also thought the cube mazes atmany offices would go away because peoplewould not need to be plugged into anythingto do their work.Though the musings of the future in the eyesof a 13-year-old are interesting, I have myown thoughts on what business technologywill look like in seven years. If the pastdecade is any indication, we are in for a wildride. I have often said that if my company’srevenue and operating income had grownover the past decade at the same rate as ourdata storage and bandwidth requirements,I would have retired early. My crystal ballshows that growth in data to still be goingstrong in 2020, which means a continueddemand for more and faster storage, fasternetwork speeds, and larger data circuits.If the pastdecade is anyindication, weare in for awild ride.
20PICTURING2020I have said before that I could see beingthe CIO of a company without a data center.I don’t think that we will be there by 2020,but it will certainly be closer to a reality.I envision a continued contraction in the sizeof corporate data centers and the continuedexpansion of computing capacity beingdelivered by third-party service providers.I recall five years ago worrying aboutwhether the main data center we builtwould be large enough to handle our growthand physical consolidation of smaller satellitecenters. As I walk through that data centernow, I worry about what to do with all thespace where racks full of servers once stood— servers that have now been virtualizedand take up a small fraction of the physicalspace. The worry of having a too small datacenter has been replaced with the worry ofhaving one that is too large. As we marchtoward 2020, server virtualization and X asa service — X being software, platform,infrastructure, or application — will continueto change the shape of data centers.There will be fewer servers, more networkhardware, and less energy consumption.When I look back at how much has changedwith end user devices since I entered theworkforce in the early 1990s, I can’t help butthink that we will see that same pace andinnovation over the next seven years. Theywill not have gone completely the way of thetypewriter, but the install base of desktopsand laptops will be reduced substantially by2020. Tablets and smartphones will be thestandard devices in the workplace, and I amsure there will be some not yet thought ofdevice form factor that will be the hot newthing in 2020. Rest assured: There will stillbe people camping out in June 2020 to buythe iPhone 13. Much like my daughter, I alsosee the use of the traditional office phone,hard-wired data drops, and the conventionaloffice cubicle slowly being phased out as weapproach 2020. I might even dare say that forsome businesses, the office as we know ittoday will cease to exist. The office will trulybecome wherever the employee happensto be, which will surely drive InfoSecprofessionals crazy.So in summary, how do I see 2020? Moredata. More mobility. Smaller corporate datacenters. I just hope that CEOs in 2020 realizethey still need CIOs.The Internet has nearly5BILLIONUSERSSOURCE: THE NATIONALSCIENCE FOUNDATION
ANEW PHASEAmy DeCarloPrincipal Analyst,Security and DataCenter ServicesCurrent Analysis@currentanalysiscurrentanalysis.comAmy DeCarlo, with 17 yearsof IT industry experience,assesses the managed ITservices sector, with anemphasis on security and datacenter solutions deliveredthrough the cloud, includingon-demand application,unified communications andcollaboration, and managedstorage offerings.E N T E R P R I S E C L O U D A D O P T I O N E N T E R SMany businesses and public sector organizations have beenusing the cloud for just the most tactical applications. Butrecent research and anecdotal reports are pointing to morebroad-based cloud deployments by 2020.21This is despite questions about deliverystability, security and compliance, andthe potential negative impact on the ITorganization’s control over resources.Current Analysis’ 2012 survey of 550 U.S.and European enterprises about their cloudadoption plans found that 64 percent alreadyare using cloud services, with the remainingorganizations planning to tap on-demandservices within the next 24 months. Thoughmost organizations are still using cloud tosupport only a relatively small percentageof their IT needs, there is evidence thatpercentage will grow in the near term,particularly over the next seven years.Though most organizations are still using cloudto support only a relatively small percentageof their IT needs, there is evidence thatpercentage will grow in the near term.
22Of the 350 organizations Current Analysissurveyed that already are using cloudservices, only 5 percent say they areconsuming more than 20 percent of their ITresources through the cloud today. However,that percentage rises significantly in the nearterm with 28 percent planning to deploy cloudservices to support at least one-fifth of theirneeds within the next two years. And expectthose percentages — both the number oforganizations and how much they plan to usecloud services — to grow even more by 2020.This signifies an important move forward asorganizations consider where the cloud isa good fit. However, making these changeswill require providers to address a numberof areas of concern, including security andcompliance questions. This is an inherentchallenge in a segment that doesn’t haveindustrywide standards for baseline security.For providers that are able to establishout of the gate that they can exceed anorganization’s existing capabilities bothin terms of price, performance, securitytechnologies, processes, and expertise, thereis a prime opportunity to help advance theenterprise from investigating cloud today tomoving forward with enterprisewide strategicdeployments by 2020.PICTURING2020of customer interactionwith a business won’tinvolve talking to a human.SOURCE: GARTNER RESEARCH85 %
Ken MaleFounder and Managing DirectorTheInfoPro, a Service of451 Research@TheInfoPro@451Research451research.comKen Male, who has more than25 years of experience in the ITindustry, created TheInfoProto provide customers withinsight based on one-on-oneand in-depth interviews witha proprietary network of theworld’s largest buyers and usersof IT. TheInfoPro is a service of451 Research and was acquiredin 2011 by The 451 Group, asyndicated research, advisoryand professional services firm.T O I T O R G A N I Z A T I O N A N D I N F R A S T R U C T U R EEXPECT BIGCHANGESAs we look out to the end of the decade, our research depictsan information technology organization being transformed andan infrastructure undergoing major structural changes.23On the organization side, one trend is for ITto become more embedded in the businessunits as the enabler, and in some ways, abroker of services that will be delivered:on premise via company-owned IT andintellectual property, and the various “as aservice” offerings that will be internal andexternal in delivery mode. Setting policy andgovernance and ensuring security will be theDNA of IT as this transition occurs.On the infrastructure side, virtualization hasbeen the catalyst for a generational changein how IT is delivered. We are at the adventof the “Industrialization of IT,” with the goalbeing to standardize and drive down thecost of servers, storage and networkinggear. Delivering a “unit of compute” as cost-efficiently as possible in a standard, modularand portable manner is the charter. Somewould call this commodization, and whenwe look at what businesses like Amazon areable to deliver, we agree. This transformationenables the use of Software DefinedNetworks and Software Defined Storage.Virtualization enables abstraction and highutilization of this industrialized IT plant, actingas a gateway to the internal cloud. Managingthe environment; providing functionality likechargebacks based on utilization; prioritizingperformance based on SLAs that IT providesto the business unit or app owner; andimplementing cloud orchestration stacks willbe key aspects of IT in 2020. The concept ofintelligent workload management is what ITwill need to be delivering, where location ofthe workload can be anywhere.
24We are starting to see companies implementprivate instances of a public cloud, in whichthe cloud service provider installs its gearat a client site and manages it remotely.The client pays a unit cost for the serviceprovided and is assured an SLA. Over time,as regulatory compliance and security canbe ensured, these private instances have theability to move outside a company-owneddata center. The end of the decade is alogical target.The old issue from the 1980s, the problemwith “Silos of IT” rendering isolation and lackof interoperability, is a key to be preparedfor. As we look at private cloud, SaaS, IaaS,PaaS, the role of the CIO will be to ensureintegration, accessibility, and security of themission-critical applications and data.The concept of intelligent workload managementis what IT will need to be delivering, where location ofthe workload can be anywhere.PICTURING2020Online businesstransactions (B2Band B2C) reachSOURCE: WIKIBON450 billion per day.
Sean BuckleySenior EditorFierceTelecom@fiercetelecomfiercetelecom.comSean Buckley, senior editor ofFierceTelecom who joined thestaff in July 2009, is responsiblefor covering news and trendsin the wireline section of thetelecom industry. Before joiningFierceTelecom, he most recentlyserved as editor-in-chief forTelecom Engine from 2006 to2009, overseeing the formerprint publication.C L O U D C O M P U T I N G B A R R I E R S W I L L F A L L,ADOPTIONWILL RISEWhen I think about technology trends leading up to 2020,a recent Fierce Telecom article on cloud services in theEuropean Union comes to mind.This article reported that the EU plansto remove the following barriers tocloud adoption:Uncertainty about legal jurisdictionand location of data in the cloudConcern about the level of cloudsecurity and assessing thetrustworthiness of suppliersUncertainty about the business caseof adopting the cloud modelFear of lock-in with proprietary systemsInsufficient local supportWith these obstacles gone, cloud computingspending could double by 2020, and the EUcould not only recognize billions in economicgains, but the cloud will be considered agame changer for the economy. If this is agame changer for the EU, the opportunity andimpact on cloud services in the United Stateswill be just as huge.25
Another Fierce Telecom article is telling about what the research says about technology andwhere we’re going in the future. We recently reported the following:Colo vacancies are on the rise: London, Los Angeles and Hong Kong have all reported thattheir vacancy rates for colocation are on the rise. The demand for colocation services, theincrease in colocation space, and the rate at which colocation sites are growing are allon the rise, and they are rising at a faster rate than last year. We all can expect this tocontinue in the next seven years.Optimal components market is influx: There are definitely mixedreviews when it comes to the opticalequipment market and whether itwill be revived. However, thanks toupcoming rollouts of 100G networksbeginning in 2014, there will be hopefor growth between 2011 and 2016.26Robot apocalypse is imminent: Recentnews reports of accidental early releasesof finance data that send stocks tumblingis just further evidence that we’re onlyas good as the humans setting up andprogramming the machines to run. Welearned that there’s still a lot of work to bedone when it comes to the robot revolution.The global cloudcomputing marketgrows toSOURCE: MASHABLEPICTURING2020$BillionWe’re onlyas good asthe humanssetting up andprogrammingthe machinesto run.
CHANGEATLANTIC-ACM@atlanticacmatlantic-acm.comATLANTIC-ACM has deliveredstrategic consulting andresearch services to leadingbusiness owners, operatorsand investors around the worldfor more than two decades.ATLANTIC-ACM deliversquantitative and qualitativeresearch that providesexecutives with clear, accurateand actionable strategies fortapping new revenue streams,shoring up existing customerbases, penetrating new marketsand navigating changes inmarket dynamics.F O R C I O S , T H E O N L Y C O N S T A N T I SNo one said the CIO position would be easy. And with the risein virtualization, the challenges are multiplied.27Pressure to do more with less — and theexploding data requirements — will continueto keep CIOs sharp.As CIOs look toward 2020, they shouldconsider ATLANTIC-ACM’s five tips for thenext seven years:Drive to VirtualContinued decentralization of the workforce,including managers and the managed,will increasingly push company data andprocesses virtual, or even into the cloud. Thiswill drive newer, faster connectivity demands.Get SecureAs decentralization materializes, informationand process security becomes paramount.Confidential client information and patentedcompany processes become potentially exposedin cloud and virtual environments. This meansCIOs need to ensure that security and redundantconnections are up to snuff. In ATLANTIC-ACM’s2012 Business Connectivity Report Card,Network Security was listed as the second mostimportant criterion in driving purchase decisions,close behind network quality.CIOs must understandwhat clients, executives,and sales forces arecomfortable storing andaccessing virtually.
28Strike a BalanceCIOs need to manage the balance betweenoff-site data storage and applications andwhat the company is comfortable putting inthe cyber world. One challenge is confidencein the ability to reliably migrate to newsystems. CIOs must understand what clients,executives and sales forces are comfortablestoring and accessing virtually.Keep it PersonalIn an increasingly virtualized world, keepingcustomer-facing operations personal willremain critical. Technology should beembraced as a means of improving “behindthe scenes” work and processes. Companiesseeking differentiation would do well to keeppersonal interactions just that — personal.Beware BuyersBuying options are becoming difficult tocompare, particularly with the additionof vertical specific software and complexbundles. For small and medium businesses,service provider offerings increasinglyconsist of converged voice, data and securityoptions, and bundling makes for difficultapples-to-apples pricing comparisons.PICTURING2020The number ofconnected devicesdoubles toSOURCE: COMPUTER WEEKLY50 billion globally
COMPUTER?’‘G R A N D P A, W H A T I S ABy 2020, the concept of acomputer will disappear forall but the cloud providers.29Dick CsaplarSenior Research Analyst,Virtualization and StorageAberdeen ITInfrastructure Groupaberdeen.comDick Csaplar, who has morethan 30 years of experience inthe IT field, covers the growingconcept of cloud computing,both private and public. He hasworked, lived or traveled in morethan 60 countries.Computing, the processing of data intoinformation will, however, be part of almostevery device in the home and office. Everythingwe own will be intelligent: our phones, ourentertainment, our cars, our homes, ourbusiness tools, and even our toys. How thesedevices get their data will be transparent tothe user and be provided as a service to thedevice itself. There will be a plug in the wallor a wireless connection to some network,and data providers will manage the requireddata without the active involvement of theuser. There no longer will be a need for a“computer” to access and create information,as that function is now done closer to whereend users consume the information.Toward the end of the 20th century, the conceptof research and development for consumerproducts changed. Early in the century,inventors looked for new technology first, andthen found ways to make it into a product.Today, that process is often upside down.Companies first try to find untapped marketsand then invent devices to fill them. TheWalkman — a small cassette player — wasn’treally a new technology as much as it was atool to meet the needs of an untapped market,even if people didn’t realize they wanted it.Today, we can add intelligence to anythingwe make. For example, you could make anintelligent shower head: Program it to start hotand gradually cool off, set a max temperatureso young children are not burned, increase thepressure late to do a final rinse or limit thetime so your kids don’t use all the hot water.This wouldn’t be an outstanding technologyachievement: All that’s needed is a chip, auser interface (put in Bluetooth and create aniPad app), and a power source. The missingingredient is a forecast that proves you couldmake money off the idea. (I want a share ofthe action if this idea does find a market!)
30By 2020, computing chips and memory willbe small and cheap enough to embed intoany device worth owning. No need to go toa special $800 computer to read email, get arecipe, see pictures or manage your budget.There will be more appliances in our lifededicated to helping us to manage our time,money and communications. And they willbe linked. Your car will be able to access allyour devices so it is the user interface to theworld while you drive. Our homes will take onthat role when we arrive there.Though adults today will understand thatthere once was a computer to whichyou went for all interactive writtencommunication, processing and storing ofdata, by 2020 that will be diffused. The kidswill react to seeing a PC like we do to seeingan old-fashioned typewriter: “Wow, I can’tbelieve I used to use one of those. Does thatcome with correcting fluid, carbon paperand extra ribbons?” And we will be forced tomake old person comments like, “You thinkyou kids have it hard? In my day, we used tohave to type H,T,T,P,:,/,/,W,W,W, dot, beforewe could go anywhere. Why? Don’t know,but that was just the way it was!”There will bemore appliancesin our life dedicatedto helping usto manage ourtime, money andcommunications.PICTURING2020Low-power chips areSOURCE: ZDNETeverywhere.
TRTRTRSMART USERS ANDSMART NETWORKSJuniper Networks@junipernetworksjuniper.netJuniper Networks, foundedby Pradeep Sindhu, DennisFerguson and Bjorn Liencresmore than 14 years ago, has amission to create innovativeproducts and solutions that meetthe growing demands of theconnected world.We see two important paradigms dominating thehyper-connected world in 2020.31First, everything will be smarter, and second,users will rule. Smartphones and tablets haveonly scratched the surface of how and whereservices will be accessed and what they willbe capable of. Smart cars, smart houses andpervasive, networked intelligence will letusers connect with one another and what theywant — wherever and whenever they want. Tothrive in the hyper-connected intelligent world,operators and businesses will have to broadenhow they think and shift toward enabling theexperiences users will expect.W I L L H E L P E A C H O T H E R G R O WHow will this happen?First, operators and businesses will want andneed to open up their systems and environmentsto become collaborative developmentenvironments. Software-defined networks areonly the beginning. Co-creation platforms willbe the rule. A key aspect of these environmentswill be enabling collaborators — “subscribers”and “application partners” — to “write” onthe new network like a grand, distributedtablet. Of course, they will be leveragingwell-established standards and using securityand protection mechanisms that will let themnegotiate reliably. But the possibilities ofcombining and mixing resources into moreflexible consumer and business outcomes, suchas purchases, reservations and online artworks,will be realized. The user will imagine it, and theintelligent network will respond.To thrive in thehyper-connected intelligentworld, operators andbusinesses will have tobroaden how theythink and shift towardenabling the experiencesusers will expect.
32Second, operators and businesses will wantto reach out to understand and embrace theircustomers’ intentions across a wide arrayof interests, and allow them to blend andinterwork for more enriching experiencesthan have been conceivable in the past. Videodelivery will blend with online shopping.Uploads and anycasts will be as frequent asdownloads and unicasts were during the Web’semergence. Enabling users to express whatthey’re interested in and mining those intereststo facilitate a more dynamic subscriberexperience will be the leader’s prescription.This will be true across:Communication and collaborationEntertainment and contentBusiness and professional platformsShopping and commercial transactionsReal-time financial servicesIn 2020, it won’t be about reachability andsimple connections anymore. It’ll be aboutapplication-aware, device-aware, location-aware, ID-aware and personalized experiencenetworking and technologies that will enablethe always-on world.
The experts have spoken … for now. In a nutshell: Technologywill become more human, data centers as we know them willbe gone or entirely reinvented, our workforce will approachcomplete mobility, and, yes, we will see more cloud. But with2020 still seven years out — a lifetime in technology years —the conversation is far from over.Continue the conversation on Twitter.Have your own take on business technology in 2020? Want tofind out what others have to say? Follow @centurylinkbiz anduse the hashtag #biztech2020 to stay in the loop.SO, THEREYOU HAVE ITContinue to expand your business technology knowledge by visiting us at:youtube.com/centurylinkbusinesslinkedin.com/company/centurylink-businessslideshare.net/centurylinkbusiness