Reduction of GHG emissions by reduced livestock production resulting from dietary changes in the EU


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Presentation given at the Greenhouse Gas in Animal Agriculture (GGAA) conference at 24 June 2013

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Reduction of GHG emissions by reduced livestock production resulting from dietary changes in the EU

  1. 1. Reduction of GHG emissions by reduced livestock production resulting from dietary changes in the EU Jan Peter Lesschen, Henk Westhoek, Susanne Wagner and Trudy Rood GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013
  2. 2. Introduction  Nitrogen and resource use efficiency is generally low in livestock production systems  Need to increase global food production and lower environmental impact  Technical mitigation measures alone are not sufficient  Change in diets effective option to reduce emissions N rehgiH ycneiciffe N in feed Poultry (meat) Higher N efficiency N rehgiH ycneiciffe Hi eff Poultry (eggs) %02 -01 N regraL tnirptoof %01 -2 doof gk rep Pork (meat) l a eV fe e B Higher N efficiency % 0 2 - 01 l a eV N regraL tn Veal irptoof Cattle (milk) d o o f g k re p fe 10-20% eB % 01 - 2 Veal Beef Veal 0 20 Larger N 2-10%per kgfootprint 2-10% footprint food 10-20% per kg food Larger N Beef Cattle (beef) 10-20% 40 60 80 Feed N recovery efficiency in edible weight (% ) Beef 100 La fo 2-10% per Sutton et al. (2011), ENA report GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013
  3. 3. Protein consumption will increase GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013
  4. 4. Intake of protein in EU-27 70% more protein than recommended GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013
  5. 5. Intake saturated fats in EU-27 40% more saturated fat than recommended maximum 80% of saturated fats are of animal origin GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013
  6. 6. GHG emissions from livestock 10% of total GHG emissions in EU Source: Lesschen et al., 2011 GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013
  7. 7. Objective and approach Objective: Assess GHG impact of reduced consumption of livestock products in EU-27 Approach:  6 alternative diets (25 and 50% reduction of pork and poultry, dairy and beef and combined)  Similar reduction in livestock production assumed  Define changes in feed demand / feed basket  Assess changes in land use  Assess environmental impact (MITTERA-Europe) GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013
  8. 8. MITERRA-Europe  A model for integrated assessment of N, C and P emissions from agriculture in EU-27 at Member State and regional levels (NUTS-2)   Developed for the European Commission   Scenario, measure and policy analysis Simple and transparent model; uniform approach for EU-27 Outputs: N and P balances, emissions of N2O, NH3, NOX, CH4, CO2, N leaching and runoff, changes in SOC stocks Velthof et al., 2009. J. Env. Qual. 38: 402–417 Lesschen et al., 2011. Animal Feed Sci. Tech. 166-167: 16-28 GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013
  9. 9. Assumptions  Changes in food consumption lead to proportional changes in food production  reduction in livestock production, increase in certain crops to replace animal products  Use of domestic by-products shall not be reduced  For protein mainly reduction of oil meal imports (soybean)  No reduction of extensive and natural grasslands  Two scenarios for land use change: 1. high commodity prices: conversion of temporary and intensive grassland into arable land; export of surplus cereals 2. environment policy setting: extensification intensive grassland; conversion of excess arable land into perennial energy crops GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013
  10. 10. Land use: two scenarios GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013
  11. 11. Per capita protein and fat intake EU-27 GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013
  12. 12. Reduction demand feed commodities GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013
  13. 13. Results: GHG emissions EU-27 High Prices scenario Greening scenario GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013
  14. 14. Additional effects of 50% reduction  75% reduction in soy meal use / import  EU cereal export might increase from 20 to 200 million tons  Environmental benefits, EU NH3 emissions reduced by 40% and nitrate leaching by 30% Health benefits  Intake of saturated fat 38% lower - on the level of WHO recommended maximum dietary intake  Intake of red meat close to maximum amount as advised by the World Cancer Research Fund GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013
  15. 15. Discussion  Simplification reduction in consumption is followed by reduction in production   Substantial uncertainties (e.g. allocation of feed)  Consumption seems difficult to change, however, historically large shifts  opportunities   Currently, few/no policies are aiming at consumption Impact on farmers, but also opportunities Reduction possible in various ways ● Frequency (shift to alternatives) ● Portion size, hybrid products GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013
  16. 16. Conclusions  A 50% reduction in the livestock component of EU diets, with corresponding changes in agriculture, would have substantial environmental and health benefits  The calculated impact on GHG emissions is larger than estimated mitigation potentials from technical measures  While further analysis is needed, it is clear that food choices matter, both for our health and our environment GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013
  17. 17. Thank you GGAA, Dublin, 24 June 2013